BrianM

Doug Baldwin 2018 Outlook

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6 hours ago, JDE said:

 

You still haven’t addressed the fact that he’s been injured/limited/decoyed all season. You’re basing your analysis of “expect pedestrian numbers from him ROS” completely off past data from this year, without once addressing the fact that he’s been hampered with injuries since week 1 and now appears to finally be fully healthy.

 

 

1. Well, SF defense was actually a fantastic stream option that week (vs the Raiders on TNF), and while EVERYONE in this forum was streaming Oakland defense due to the Nick Mullens start (and ended up with negative fantasy points) I was literally the only person starting SF defense who had a pretty decent game and helped me win my week. Starting to sound like my advice isn’t so crappy after all...

 

2. That was simply for the lolz, obviously had zero chance in that matchup but hey who knows.

 

I’m not exactly sure who died and made you king of RotoWorld, but when you come in here and post a completely ridiculous statement without any actual analysis to back it up, I’m going to call you out on it.

 

and I’m STILL waiting for you to explain how a fully healthy Baldwin in a Seattle offense that’s really picking up momentum and fighting for a playoff spot should expect pedestrian numbers for the rest of the season. Perhaps you’ll give me an actual answer instead of whining about newbies “falling in line”

 

I own baldwin and want him to be successful, but i dont see the matchups besides week 16 leading to throwing leading to 6 or less targets.

Carolina loves to run as much as Seattle, probably not gonna be a shoot out. 

San Fran offense stinks, will be the Penny Carson show.

 

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You guys are going way too far analyzing matchups, run:pass ratios, etc. Doug Baldwin is who he is. He is liable to give you a 2 for 30 yd performance one day and a touchdown boom game the next.

 

He's best fit into a lineup with more stable options. Those of us that drafted him probably will have to start him down the stretch in deeper  12-team leagues. Accept who he is.

 

I looked at his historical game logs and you will see he has always been boom or bust. Scroll down here - http://www.fftoday.com/stats/players/12173/Doug_Baldwin

He will be on my Do Not Draft list for more weekly consistent options from now on but he is who he is.

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I am happy to have him return to boom or bust status rather than decoy!  He is what he is but at least now there is a potential for 1-2 tds depending on the game flow.   It’s better than him distracting defenders for everyone else... and I’m sure he will still produce some stinkers.   

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4 minutes ago, smash10033 said:

I am happy to have him return to boom or bust status rather than decoy!  He is what he is but at least now there is a potential for 1-2 tds depending on the game flow.   It’s better than him distracting defenders for everyone else... and I’m sure he will still produce some stinkers.   

Thats the thing game flow, which game coming up besides chiefs in the championship will have shoot out potential?

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18 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Thats the thing game flow, which game coming up besides chiefs in the championship will have shoot out potential?

 

If you chase matchups and attempt to cherry predict his games you will pull your hair out. Just look at his final stretch last year:

At JAX (best pass defense in years but variable opposing offense): 3/78/1

Vs LAR (high powered O, positive game script right?): 1/6/0

At DAL (neutral): 4/35/1

Vs ARI (historically limiting pass defense): 4/90/2

 

Bet on his improving health and red zone chemistry with Russ. The rest is up to your alternatives and the fantasy gods.

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2 hours ago, the Ghost of Joe Webb said:

 

If you chase matchups and attempt to cherry predict his games you will pull your hair out. Just look at his final stretch last year:

At JAX (best pass defense in years but variable opposing offense): 3/78/1

Vs LAR (high powered O, positive game script right?): 1/6/0

At DAL (neutral): 4/35/1

Vs ARI (historically limiting pass defense): 4/90/2

 

Bet on his improving health and red zone chemistry with Russ. The rest is up to your alternatives and the fantasy gods.

While i agree, this team is NOT throwing the ball enough, i think all their rbs were injured last year. Now they have a 1st round pick and a very good rb in carson, plus a underated def. Throw in the emergence of lockett and other rbs. Its a completely different team.

Edited by nmartinez12443

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Maybe already mentioned, but Russell Wilson's accuracy was pretty awful during Thursday's game....

 

Has this been going on for awhile or was it just one of those games?

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I think it is clear that Baldwin still looks good. He has caught 80% of balls thrown his way over the last 5 games, and that takes into account the few terrible throws Wilson threw his way on Thursday. He was running crisp routes and consistently getting open. I expect him to be a mid WR2 the rest of the way in PPR. That may seem a bit high, but I believe the future is promising for a team that will be fighting to get to the playoffs. It would be wise to probably use your best WR now that he (claims to be) is healthy.

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8 minutes ago, MMLSU said:

I think it is clear that Baldwin still looks good. He has caught 80% of balls thrown his way over the last 5 games, and that takes into account the few terrible throws Wilson threw his way on Thursday. He was running crisp routes and consistently getting open. I expect him to be a mid WR2 the rest of the way in PPR. That may seem a bit high, but I believe the future is promising for a team that will be fighting to get to the playoffs. It would be wise to probably use your best WR now that he (claims to be) is healthy.

 

The issue with the bolded is that with Seahawks having so much success while being a run-heavy team it doesn't seem like Baldwin will get typical WR1 treatment as far as targets. Since employing this run heavy attack they've been competitive in every game they've played including coming within a possession of beating the Rams twice. I don't think they'll deviate greatly from this formula so I think it severely caps Baldwin's upside, this is very different from the offenses he had success in the past few years where the majority of the time the run game was non-existent. The past few years he has been particularly prolific at scoring TDs though despite his under 6ft frame so that provides a reason for optimism. 

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33 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

 

The issue with the bolded is that with Seahawks having so much success while being a run-heavy team it doesn't seem like Baldwin will get typical WR1 treatment as far as targets. Since employing this run heavy attack they've been competitive in every game they've played including coming within a possession of beating the Rams twice. I don't think they'll deviate greatly from this formula so I think it severely caps Baldwin's upside, this is very different from the offenses he had success in the past few years where the majority of the time the run game was non-existent. The past few years he has been particularly prolific at scoring TDs though despite his under 6ft frame so that provides a reason for optimism. 

You make a good point. My belief comes more from the fact that I think he finally looked like the old Baldwin on Thursday, and I expect him to be in the 7/9 target a game range which is not great, but something I would comfortable with. That coupled with my belief that he is the best WR on the team gives me some hope for his rest of season outlook.

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17 hours ago, meverett85 said:

Maybe already mentioned, but Russell Wilson's accuracy was pretty awful during Thursday's game....

 

Has this been going on for awhile or was it just one of those games?

Russell’s usually very accurate. Just an off game 

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I picked up Baldwin because I too noticed Thursday he looked very good....running great routes and let’s face it, he is a touchdown maker, no denying that. 

 

Yeah, Seahawks are a run first team, but so is Rams with Gurley and Chiefs with Hunt and Saints with Kamara/Ingram.  The point I’m making is this.....good runners make the WRs better because you can’t focus on one phase only.  You have to respect the run which can allow for the safety to be preoccupied.  All those good run teams I named are also VERY prolific in passing. Brees has MT, KC has Hill, and Rams have 3 guys. 

 

There is plenty to to go around and eat for the Seattle runners and Baldwin.....even Lockett has leftovers. 

 

Schedule isnt too shabby either:

carolina could be high scoring

sf twice

chiefs in championship week 16. We saw what Rams did against them. 

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27 minutes ago, TennisMenace said:

 

Schedule isnt too shabby either:

carolina could be high scoring

sf twice

chiefs in championship week 16. We saw what Rams did against them. 

 

Trying to get a read on the SEA/CAR game. Can't decide if this is a slug it out defensive battle or a high scorer.

 

Considering starting Baldwin in one league (and R. Wilson in another).

 

CAR secondary got smoked by Big Ben last week. Gotta think CAR comes out at home a little stronger. 

 

All that said, I do think there's a good chance that Baldwin rewards patient owners down the stretch here.

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14 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

 

Trying to get a read on the SEA/CAR game. Can't decide if this is a slug it out defensive battle or a high scorer.

 

Considering starting Baldwin in one league (and R. Wilson in another).

 

CAR secondary got smoked by Big Ben last week. Gotta think CAR comes out at home a little stronger. 

 

All that said, I do think there's a good chance that Baldwin rewards patient owners down the stretch here.

 

Carolina actually lost to Detroit last week 20-19 after getting smoked by Pitt the week before. 

 

I think this this game will be high scoring.  Baldwin should eat.

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11 minutes ago, TennisMenace said:

 

Carolina actually lost to Detroit last week 20-19 after getting smoked by Pitt the week before. 

 

I think this this game will be high scoring.  Baldwin should eat.

if the groin injury is fake. which i hope it is.  lol

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1 minute ago, cdd10 said:

if the groin injury is fake. which i hope it is.  lol

 

Yeah, he looked fine to me last Thursday. He’s had extra days to rest and recover from whatever ails him. 

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Hey guys...does anyone know who is the San Francisco CB who covers the SLOT receiver, and is he any good? BALDWIN RUNS OUT OF THE SLOT almost exclusively. 

 

im looking at Doug Baldwin’s week 13 and 15 schedule and they play San Fran those two weeks. Both are very very important weeks. Knowing this info could help me make a decision. Any help is appreciated and thanks.

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It 

34 minutes ago, TennisMenace said:

Hey guys...does anyone know who is the San Francisco CB who covers the SLOT receiver, and is he any good? BALDWIN RUNS OUT OF THE SLOT almost exclusively. 

 

im looking at Doug Baldwin’s week 13 and 15 schedule and they play San Fran those two weeks. Both are very very important weeks. Knowing this info could help me make a decision. Any help is appreciated and thanks.

It is K'waun Williams I believe. He has been pretty average this year. 

 

As a team the 49ers secondary is middle of the pack 14th in DVOA. Sherman is keeping the secondary afloat. 

 

Baldwin should have a decent ppr day as long as healthy... 

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44 minutes ago, potatoetree said:

It 

It is K'waun Williams I believe. He has been pretty average this year. 

 

As a team the 49ers secondary is middle of the pack 14th in DVOA. Sherman is keeping the secondary afloat. 

 

Baldwin should have a decent ppr day as long as healthy... 

 

Thanks for this. I knew their secondary was average....wasn’t sure how good the slot CB is. Now I know......average.  As you can see, weeks 13 and 15 are crucial for many leagues. Week 13 is the second to last  week for me and I’m playing the guy tied with me for 4th place.  I will need a win that week to make the playoffs.  Week 15 is week one of the two weeks of playoffs. 

 

Im trying to figure out who is the better play for weeks 13, 14, and 15.  I think the Minny slot CB May be the weak link on that team so week 14 may be a good time to play Baldwin as well. So, it appears weeks 13-15 may be a green light, no big obstacle, to play Baldwin over DJ Moore or Kenny G. 

 

Thanks again. 

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26 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Did he practice today?

Injury report for Seattle not yet released. They practice this afternoon then fly later today to Charlotte. It should come out in the next couple hours 

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15 minutes ago, TennisMenace said:

 

Thanks for this. I knew their secondary was average....wasn’t sure how good the slot CB is. Now I know......average.  As you can see, weeks 13 and 15 are crucial for many leagues. Week 13 is the second to last  week for me and I’m playing the guy tied with me for 4th place.  I will need a win that week to make the playoffs.  Week 15 is week one of the two weeks of playoffs. 

 

Im trying to figure out who is the better play for weeks 13, 14, and 15.  I think the Minny slot CB May be the weak link on that team so week 14 may be a good time to play Baldwin as well. So, it appears weeks 13-15 may be a green light, no big obstacle, to play Baldwin over DJ Moore or Kenny G. 

 

Thanks again. 

No problem. Groin injuries are tricky though, especially for Baldwin who is not really a North South kind of runner. He needs to be agile to be effective coming out of the slot. 

DJ moore is looking like a really solid play with Funchess being injured right now. 

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11 minutes ago, potatoetree said:

No problem. Groin injuries are tricky though, especially for Baldwin who is not really a North South kind of runner. He needs to be agile to be effective coming out of the slot. 

DJ moore is looking like a really solid play with Funchess being injured right now. 

 

You said that the SF Slot CB was average. Well, these numbers support that statement.  The last 5 slot receivers SF has faced are....

 

week 6 GB, MV-S: 3-103-0

week 7 Rams, Kupp out, Reynolds in: 1-19-0

week 8 Cards, Fitz:  8-102-1

week 9 Oakland, Roberts: 1-8-0

week 10; Giants Shepard: 2-9-1

week 11 - bye

week 12 Tampa Godwin/ Humphries: ? 

 

Two games were rough, 3 games were very good with one caveat- let in the game winning td against Giants. 

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22 minutes ago, potatoetree said:

Injury report for Seattle not yet released. They practice this afternoon then fly later today to Charlotte. It should come out in the next couple hours 

 

Rotoworld has him as QUESTIONABLE for Sunday, but we all know he is definitely playing. Huge game and he has not played since last Thursday and looked great.

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15 minutes ago, TennisMenace said:

 

Rotoworld has him as QUESTIONABLE for Sunday, but we all know he is definitely playing. Huge game and he has not played since last Thursday and looked great.

 

Why would that be?

This is a guy that has two banged up knees and now maybe has a groin issue? Not the best situation for a guy that will need lateral quickness out of the slot.

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