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Rich Hill 2018 Outlook

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26 minutes ago, MireLurker said:

Two-start week coming up - how do curve balls perform at Coors? He hasn't had a start there in the last 3 seasons... i'm still leaving him active but scared of a Sunday blowup.

Oakland hits a lot of homers and the only pitchers I'd ever start in Coors are the Scherzer/Kluber level aces. Breaking balls don't break as much in Colorado. I realize some teams need to start Hill for a variety of reasons, but I wouldn't be eager to use him this week in either start.

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I have no problem starting Hill tomorrow night.  I'm sitting him in Colorado though.  He's too dependent on his curveball to use him there.

 

Oakland is doing much better than anyone expected, but there's not enough there for them against LHP to scare me away from using a pitcher that's on an extended roll.  They are 4th in Runs vs. LHP,  but that's because they have the 6th most ABs against them.  Their .244 average against LHP is actually 19th, which is a better representation of what they can do against lefties rather than be considered a Top 5 offense against them.

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8 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

I have no problem starting Hill tomorrow night.  I'm sitting him in Colorado though.  He's too dependent on his curveball to use him there.

 

Oakland is doing much better than anyone expected, but there's not enough there for them against LHP to scare me away from using a pitcher that's on an extended roll.  They are 4th in Runs vs. LHP,  but that's because they have the 6th most ABs against them.  Their .244 average against LHP is actually 19th, which is a better representation of what they can do against lefties rather than be considered a Top 5 offense against them.

Oakland doesn't hit for a high average. Against RHP they're batting 251. They hit for power. But this matchup is in Oakland and that stadium helps all pitchers. I can't see any justification for starting Hill in Colorado unless it's a Hail Mary. I can see a lot of good reasons you'd start him in Oakland. I wouldn't be looking forward to doing so, but admittedly my homerism is likely influencing that decision.

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I like to go by OPS for teams, so Oakland is 12th vs LHP but they're 25th at home.

 

Colorado is 2nd vs LHP and 3rd at home :blink:

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Hill hasnt fared well at Coor’s in his two starts there. ERA above 8. OPBA north of .300. 

 

Nope. 

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4 minutes ago, Braves16 said:

Hill hasnt fared well at Coor’s in his two starts there. ERA above 8. OPBA north of .300. 

 

Nope. 

I don't think anybody is arguing for starting Hill at Coors.  I'm steering clear of the whole series actually (also have Buehler).

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8 minutes ago, Braves16 said:

Hill hasnt fared well at Coor’s in his two starts there. ERA above 8. OPBA north of .300. 

 

Nope. 

 

Can't look at his career numbers, he had a terrible career before discovering himself in Boston that one time... and who knows, it may have been a blister flareup that day :lol: Like I mentioned, he hasn't played in Coors in the last 3 seasons, maybe even the season before... I'm too lazy to dig that deep, but no recent samples.

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3 minutes ago, MireLurker said:

 

Can't look at his career numbers, he had a terrible career before discovering himself in Boston that one time... and who knows, it may have been a blister flareup that day :lol: Like I mentioned, he hasn't played in Coors in the last 3 seasons, maybe even the season before... I'm too lazy to dig that deep, but no recent samples.

True, but you can't blame anyone for sitting Hill for the Colorado game.  Guys that rely on their breaking balls aren't exactly reliable there.  Obviously he could go in there and shut them down.  Much crazier things have happened, but I'm still likely sitting him.

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I would unquestionably sit him just for the COL game in a daily. The problem is if you're in a weekly, and you've got a hot, high strikeout pitcher with a two-start week who has an OK first matchup. Then you've got a dilemma on your hands as to whether that second start at Coors is a worthwhile risk. 

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15 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

You guys starting him confidently @ Oak tonight ? 

 

I'm 50-50 on the decision

 

I'm starting him. Read up in this thread for a good discussion on his upcoming starts.

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On 8/6/2018 at 6:24 PM, Braves16 said:

Hill hasnt fared well at Coor’s in his two starts there. ERA above 8. OPBA north of .300. 

 

Nope. 

 

On 8/6/2018 at 6:36 PM, MireLurker said:

 

Can't look at his career numbers, he had a terrible career before discovering himself in Boston that one time... and who knows, it may have been a blister flareup that day :lol: Like I mentioned, he hasn't played in Coors in the last 3 seasons, maybe even the season before... I'm too lazy to dig that deep, but no recent samples.

 

On 8/6/2018 at 6:41 PM, KilloWertz said:

True, but you can't blame anyone for sitting Hill for the Colorado game.  Guys that rely on their breaking balls aren't exactly reliable there.  Obviously he could go in there and shut them down.  Much crazier things have happened, but I'm still likely sitting him.

 

It totally sucks that he has to pitch at Coors this weekend.  I'd probably start him anywhere else right now, given how well he's been pitching recently, against some pretty darn good offenses too.  The problem with Coors isn't fly balls carrying an extra few feet in the thin air; it's that breaking balls don't break there which changes the whole way you can pitch and like KilloWertz said Hill relies on his breaking ball a lot.  I know his career ERA at Coors might be misleading since he hasn't pitched there in 10 years, but Coors just isn't worth the risk in my opinion.  Even the elite pitchers, I'm nervous about starting at Coors.

 

FYI, here are the career numbers of the best NL pitchers at Coors:

 

Kershaw: 4.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 116 Ks in 120 IP

Scherzer: 5.88 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 29 Ks in 27 IP

Bumgarner: 4.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 58 Ks in 79 IP

Greinke: 4.20 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 56 Ks in 64 IP

Strasburg: 7.20 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 21 Ks in 20 IP

 

As Scott Pianowski on Yahoo likes to say, "gravity always wins"

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As an addendum, I would suggest checking out Kyle Freeland’s ERA at home this season.

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

As an addendum, I would suggest checking out Kyle Freeland’s ERA at home this season.

 

*bane voice*

 

Oh, you think Coors is your ally. But you merely adopted the elevation; I was born in it, moulded by it.

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4 minutes ago, street sharks said:

 

*bane voice*

 

Oh, you think Coors is your ally. But you merely adopted the elevation; I was born in it, moulded by it.

 

Hahahaha!  This was awesome.

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7 minutes ago, street sharks said:

 

*bane voice*

 

Oh, you think Coors is your ally. But you merely adopted the elevation; I was born in it, moulded by it.

 

Re: rostering CO pitchers:

 

It would be extremely painful.

 

For you.

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On 8/8/2018 at 11:08 PM, BMcP said:

As an addendum, I would suggest checking out Kyle Freeland’s ERA at home this season.

 

So, just to be clear, you are starting Hill on Sunday because of Freeland's Coors Field success this season?

 

With Blackmon falling apart this year (going from an MVP candidate last year to a below replacement level player this year at only 32 years old), this might be the weakest Rockies offense in their team's history, but still Coors Field scares the heck out of me for a breaking ball reliant pitcher and Arenado is still as good as ever.  I'm sitting this one out of Sunday.

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2 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

So, just to be clear, you are starting Hill on Sunday because of Freeland's Coors Field success this season?

 

With Blackmon falling apart this year (going from an MVP candidate last year to a below replacement level player this year at only 32 years old), this might be the weakest Rockies offense in their team's history, but still Coors Field scares the heck out of me for a breaking ball reliant pitcher and Arenado is still as good as ever.  I'm sitting this one out of Sunday.

 

Heck no.  (Though, in truth, I am starting him because I have to in one weekly league.)

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On 8/6/2018 at 6:58 PM, Caelum said:

I would unquestionably sit him just for the COL game in a daily. The problem is if you're in a weekly, and you've got a hot, high strikeout pitcher with a two-start week who has an OK first matchup. Then you've got a dilemma on your hands as to whether that second start at Coors is a worthwhile risk. 

 

On 8/8/2018 at 3:11 AM, Smantzas said:

Started him and did good enough. Definitely work avoiding Coors.... 

 

On 8/10/2018 at 1:14 PM, BMcP said:

 

Heck no.  (Though, in truth, I am starting him because I have to in one weekly league.)

 

On 8/6/2018 at 6:24 PM, Braves16 said:

Hill hasnt fared well at Coor’s in his two starts there. ERA above 8. OPBA north of .300. 

 

Nope. 

 

On 8/6/2018 at 6:29 PM, KilloWertz said:

I don't think anybody is arguing for starting Hill at Coors.  I'm steering clear of the whole series actually (also have Buehler).

 

If Arenado is still out tomorrow, would that change your opinion about starting Hill?  Coors is still scary regardless, but Arenado is their best hitter by a mile, especially against a lefty.

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As someone noted earlier, he relies so much on that curve. If it’s flat the Rox still have enough bats to punish him even without Arenado. 

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8 minutes ago, Braves16 said:

As someone noted earlier, he relies so much on that curve. If it’s flat the Rox still have enough bats to punish him even without Arenado. 

 

Yeah, I'm still benching him probably, although it does become a bit more tempting without Arenado.  The Rockies lineup really is not impressive without Arenado, especially with Blackmon suddenly becoming a below replacement level player this year.

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I wouldn’t start him unless I had to - which I do.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

I wouldn’t start him unless I had to - which I do.

 

Walker Buehler sure as heck didn't have any problems with the Arenado-less Rockies lineup.  Of course, unlike Hill, Buehler's got that 99 mph fastball that is unaffected by the thin air.

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20 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Walker Buehler sure as heck didn't have any problems with the Arenado-less Rockies lineup.  Of course, unlike Hill, Buehler's got that 99 mph fastball that is unaffected by the thin air.

 

I'm running him out there but I need 6 or 7 IP and a miracle to catch the ratios this week.

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