Sign in to follow this  
BMcP

Rich Hill 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Is this guy toast? His peripheral stats so far don't seem to indicate that he has been unlucky this year, but plain bad. thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

Is this guy toast? His peripheral stats so far don't seem to indicate that he has been unlucky this year, but plain bad. thoughts?

 

I thought he was toast last year around this time. He had made some really bad starts, had blister issues, age must have finally caught up to him, etc. Drop time. So then of course he's one of the best pitchers in baseball in the 2nd half.

 

Logically you'd think he's done, but almost everything about Rich Hill's late-career revival flies directly in the face of logic.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had to drop him in a 16 team league due to multiple injuries to other players.  I looked over his splits from last year and he basically had two amazing months.  The rest were crap.  So rather than hold him for most of a year waiting for those two months, which may not come in succession (at least they didn't last season), I figured I'd let someone else burn that roster spot.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

I had to drop him in a 16 team league due to multiple injuries to other players.  I looked over his splits from last year and he basically had two amazing months.  The rest were crap.  So rather than hold him for most of a year waiting for those two months, which may not come in succession (at least they didn't last season), I figured I'd let someone else burn that roster spot.

 

Another way to look at it was after June 15th he was a top 5 pitcher in baseball with exactly one bad start in that entire time period 

 

And even with the annoying nagging finger injuries of the first two+ months he still ended up ranked #66 in my leagues player rater (counts k:bb)

Edited by merlin401
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, merlin401 said:

 

Another way to look at it was after June 15th he was a top 5 pitcher in baseball. 

 

And even with the annoying nagging finger injuries of the first two+ months he still ended up ranked #66 in my leagues player rater (counts k:bb)

I know, but it wasn't as clean as it seems.  I hope the formatting comes out ok but here's his month by month for 2017.  We can see that outside of July and September he was mediocre at best and outright horrible at worst.  I can't be gambling on which months those will be this year.  Someone should though.

  Pitching
Monthly G GS W L SV BS HLD CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
April 2 2 1 1 0 0 - 0 0 8.0 7 3 3 2 5 7 3.38 1.50 .259
May 3 3 1 1 0 0 - 0 0 14.0 12 7 7 1 9 14 4.50 1.50 .250
June 5 5 2 2 0 0 - 0 0 25.0 21 15 14 3 14 29 5.04 1.40 .223
July 5 5 4 0 0 0 - 0 0 31.0 19 5 5 2 5 40 1.45 0.77 .171
August 5 5 1 2 0 0 - 1 0 28.2 26 15 15 7 8 36 4.71 1.19 .239
September 5 5 3 2 0 0 - 0 0 29.0 14 6 6 3 8 40 1.86 0.76 .141

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd call last August more unlucky than bad for Hill. He had 36 K, 8 BB and a 3.22 xFIP in 28.2 IP. He was hurt by a 25% HR/FB that month, but overall he was pretty solid through the second half.

 

His first half was a sea of blisters and hangnails and walks, just like this year has been so far. If he can get his fingers on the ball properly, he's probably capable of a little more magic. Whether that will actually happen is anybody's guess.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

I know, but it wasn't as clean as it seems.  I hope the formatting comes out ok but here's his month by month for 2017.  We can see that outside of July and September he was mediocre at best and outright horrible at worst.  I can't be gambling on which months those will be this year.  Someone should though.

  Pitching
Monthly G GS W L SV BS HLD CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
April 2 2 1 1 0 0 - 0 0 8.0 7 3 3 2 5 7 3.38 1.50 .259
May 3 3 1 1 0 0 - 0 0 14.0 12 7 7 1 9 14 4.50 1.50 .250
June 5 5 2 2 0 0 - 0 0 25.0 21 15 14 3 14 29 5.04 1.40 .223
July 5 5 4 0 0 0 - 0 0 31.0 19 5 5 2 5 40 1.45 0.77 .171
August 5 5 1 2 0 0 - 1 0 28.2 26 15 15 7 8 36 4.71 1.19 .239
September 5 5 3 2 0 0 - 0 0 29.0 14 6 6 3 8 40 1.86 0.76 .141

 

Actually it was as clean as it seems.  The splits make it look less dominant due to the one bad August start. Check out the game log after 6/15.  I do understand the frustration of these early months though

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/16/2018 at 8:02 PM, merlin401 said:

 

Actually it was as clean as it seems.  The splits make it look less dominant due to the one bad August start. Check out the game log after 6/15.  I do understand the frustration of these early months though

 

I understand where you're coming from, and Hill was definitely one of the best fantasy pitchers in baseball after June 15th last year as you pointed out.  However, Hill is 38 years old, so I don't think there is any guarantee he does that again this year.  There's a non-trivial chance that Hill at 38 years old is simply finished as an effective major league pitcher.

 

I picked him up in my money league after he was dropped following his poor start vs. the Reds, but I'm definitely not going to risk starting him today.  He needs to show me some signs of turning it around before I can risk it, plus the win probability is very low going against a pitcher like Scherzer.  If he pitches decently today, I may be able to talk myself into starting vs. the Padres next weekend. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so how many pitches will Richie throw today before he has to leave the game with a booboo ... I'm going with 46 pitches

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I understand where you're coming from, and Hill was definitely one of the best fantasy pitchers in baseball after June 15th last year as you pointed out.  However, Hill is 38 years old, so I don't think there is any guarantee he does that again this year.  There's a non-trivial chance that Hill at 38 years old is simply finished as an effective major league pitcher.

 

I picked him up in my money league after he was dropped following his poor start vs. the Reds, but I'm definitely not going to risk starting him today.  He needs to show me some signs of turning it around before I can risk it, plus the win probability is very low going against a pitcher like Scherzer.  If he pitches decently today, I may be able to talk myself into starting vs. the Padres next weekend. 

 

Well I can certainly agree with that. He has looked done to begin the year three years in a row so I’m going to ride it out some more, but you are right: one of these days he looks done he actually will be done.  But right now nothing in his profile looks like it’s any different than last year. I would generally advise not starting him until he looks sharp myself.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, merlin401 said:

 

Well I can certainly agree with that. He has looked done to begin the year three years in a row so I’m going to ride it out some more, but you are right: one of these days he looks done he actually will be done.  But right now nothing in his profile looks like it’s any different than last year. I would generally advise not starting him until he looks sharp myself.  

 

Not sure I can agree with the three years in a row part.  In 2016, Hill had a 2.42 ERA in April and a 2.13 ERA in May.  Hill in 2016 was pretty much great the entire year whenever he pitched (he allowed 3 ER or less in all but one start the entire year and in that start he allowed four runs).  Given his low ADP that year, he won a ton of fantasy leagues that year.  

Edited by FootballFan101

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have not gone back and read but last year once he changed from pitching out of the wind up to exclusively out of the stretch, that is when he started playing great. I think this year he has been hampered by the blister issues. I think I would not cut bait but bench in the time being, until we know for sure no more blister issues. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Not sure I can agree with the three years in a row part.  In 2016, Hill had a 2.42 ERA in April and a 2.13 ERA in May.  Hill in 2016 was pretty much great the entire year whenever he pitched (he allowed 3 ER or less in all but one start the entire year and in that start he allowed four runs).  Given his low ADP that year, he won a ton of fantasy leagues that year.  

 

Hill was my #1 pitching target in 2016 and I got scared off because he had one of the worst spring trainings I’ve ever seen. He was walking everyone he faced practically and said he just needed to get his mechanics in rhythm, which he did very rapidly. I feel like these finger issues the last two years have just delayed/prevented him from getting his mechanics in that rhythm and when he does finally string three or four incident free starts together he will be back to being solid if not great 

Edited by merlin401

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, slaphitter said:

He's leaving the game in the 2nd inning. This is not a recording

Not to nitpick, but he's leaving the game after throwing his 2nd pitch!  Looked like a blister ripped open.  After leaving his last start I have no earthly idea how he thought he would make it through this one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, jb_power said:

so how many pitches will Richie throw today before he has to leave the game with a booboo ... I'm going with 46 pitches

 

2 pitches

  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In all seriousness ya gotta feel for the guy. I can only imagine how frustrating that could be. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/19/2018 at 8:37 AM, klove42 said:

Even this guy has stronger hands than Hill

266a1de8e35302d1f92e1ab9946e629a.jpg

More true every day

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, benturn22 said:

definitely shouldn't have come back so early.  Take a month off..

Mmhmm LA will need him come playoffs. This isn't worth it 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, ZChronicNebula said:

Mmhmm LA will need him come playoffs. This isn't worth it 

LAD is the 4th worst team in NL right now.  You really think they are gonna turn it around enough to be one of the top 5 teams?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, benturn22 said:

frustrating for both Hill and his owners..definitely shouldn't have come back so early.  Take a month off..

 

He'd have another finger injury 2 weeks later.  Guy is old.  I didn't understand why he was going where he did in drafts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Yceman1234 said:

LAD is the 4th worst team in NL right now.  You really think they are gonna turn it around enough to be one of the top 5 teams?

Once Kershaw gets back they'll start racking up the wins I'm sure. It's still early. Turner just got back & Puig is starting to heat up.

Edited by ZChronicNebula

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.