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Rich Hill 2018 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, svdude said:

Anyone else think he can get back to what he was in the 2nd half last year?  From the quote above it sounds like he used the time to dive into the film and see what he needed to fix (besides himself).

Yup. Assuming health all he needs is feel for his breaking ball. Now that it looks like he has that back I think he's ready to go for as long as his body holds up. 

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This man is going to retire because of a blister one day

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I will say No. His 2nd half was pretty darn good last year which I think will be difficult to duplicate. The Dodgers as a team are not the same as last year.

 

Also, he wasnt throwing well prior to the blister put him on the DL, however, perhaps he was dealing with the blisters longer than we knew which may have caused mechanical issues.

 

I do like what Hill said regarding the adjustments he made while on the DL which I'm on board for but I'm tempering expectations. He should be an upgrade to my rotation from what is available on the waiver wire. 

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15 minutes ago, 24/7fantasysports said:

I will say No. His 2nd half was pretty darn good last year which I think will be difficult to duplicate. The Dodgers as a team are not the same as last year.

 

Also, he wasnt throwing well prior to the blister put him on the DL, however, perhaps he was dealing with the blisters longer than we knew which may have caused mechanical issues.

 

I do like what Hill said regarding the adjustments he made while on the DL which I'm on board for but I'm tempering expectations. He should be an upgrade to my rotation from what is available on the waiver wire. 

 

This dude is about to pull a 2017 Hill. 

 

His peripherals were terrible to start last season as well. Much like this thread, you could go back to his 2017 thread where people were claiming he was toast, and that he should be dropped. I stupidly listened and dropped him towards the end of June, and I came to regret that move so, so hard. Once July rolled around the phoenix arose from the ashes, and out came Dick Mountain.

 

MkYpw3p.png

 

And here's his stats this year. Looking just like the beginning of 2017.

 

JauMtEY.png

 

I should also mention last season, it took him 2 DL trips to get right. And he'd now be coming off his 2nd DL stint of 2018  ?

 

 

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30 minutes ago, street sharks said:

 

This dude is about to pull a 2017 Hill. 

 

His peripherals were terrible to start last season as well. Much like this thread, you could go back to his 2017 thread where people were claiming he was toast, and that he should be dropped. I stupidly listened and dropped him towards the end of June, and I came to regret that move so, so hard. Once July rolled around the phoenix arose from the ashes, and out came Dick Mountain.

 

MkYpw3p.png

 

And here's his stats this year. Looking just like the beginning of 2017.

 

JauMtEY.png

 

I should also mention last season, it took him 2 DL trips to get right. And he'd now be coming off his 2nd DL stint of 2018  ?

 

 

Thank you for providing us the added information. I scooped him up a little bit ago. I'm optimistic he will be successful just maybe not as great as last year, primarily the W's but I think he will still be a difference maker. I would have been sick if another owner picked him up and he excelled when I had him right in front of me without adding him. 

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On 5/16/2018 at 7:00 PM, merlin401 said:

 

Another way to look at it was after June 15th he was a top 5 pitcher in baseball with exactly one bad start in that entire time period 

 

And even with the annoying nagging finger injuries of the first two+ months he still ended up ranked #66 in my leagues player rater (counts k:bb)

 

I picked Hill up yesterday because as you said, he started off terrible last year too and then he was a top 5 fantasy pitcher after June 15th last year.

 

Here's hoping history repeats itself, but the guess here is no.  Hill is 38 years old, so there's a non-trivial chance that Hill at 38 years old is simply finished as an effective major league pitcher.

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Fwiw

From Bill Plunkett

 

"I'm looking forward to pitching Tuesday," said Hill, who will rejoin the Dodgers' rotation in Chicago for the first time since he left after two pitches, that blister on his finger having ripped open.

 But Hill's anticipation is fueled by more than just the satisfaction of being cleared to return. He also made some adjustments in his delivery during his down time that he said showed definite results in the quality of his pitches Thursday night.

 "It felt great, he said.  "I would say my curve ball was probably the best it's been in three years. My fastball was as good as it was in 2016 and last year. We made a few mechanical changes, small changes that made a huge difference. The ball was really coming out of my hand the way that I want it to."

 The changes involved only a slight shift in his balance during his delivery. Instead of getting into his toes of his left foot against the rubber, he shifted his weight more into his heel. That small difference allowed him to get better direction to the plate, Hill said, and gave his curveballs "real 12-to-6 spin." 

 "It felt like it was breaking five feet, " Hill said. "I'll be interested to see how it plays on Tuesday. I just felt the changes I made really freed my hand up, freed my arm up."

  Hill said he will continue to receive treatment on his middle finger daily in order to prevent the blister from returning. He has been using a laser device on his finger multiple times a day and dipping his hand in a bucket of rice to keep it "as dry as possible."

 

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I do not get why people are hesitant to pick him up if he is out there. He says he feels better than a long time, he came back strong last year, etc... I think it is a no brainer to grab him. When this guy is healthy, he has been money the past few years. Do yourself a favor and grab this beast if he is available. 

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I've made overtures to that owner. Would like this guy to help solidify my rotation. I mean after Cole/Snell/Heaney I am rolling with people like Lucas Giolitto, Derreck Rodriquez and Brad Keller....IOW, not pretty. 

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36 minutes ago, mrfrood said:

I do not get why people are hesitant to pick him up if he is out there. He says he feels better than a long time, he came back strong last year, etc... I think it is a no brainer to grab him. When this guy is healthy, he has been money the past few years. Do yourself a favor and grab this beast if he is available. 

Agreed. I picked him up. If he's right is playing with house money.

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8 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Anyone rolling blister boy out there today?

cubs at home are #1 against LHP: .385 wOBA / 144 wRC+

in 2017 with roughly the same line-up they were #4. even tho the season is still young, i don't think it's a fluke.

risky start...

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13 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Anyone rolling blister boy out there today?

 

Hes on the bench for me.  A little too risky of a start and need to see the finger hold up.

 

Encouraged by his change in mechanics though.

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13 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Anyone rolling blister boy out there today?

I cannot pull the triggger take him off my DL and start him. So the answer is NO 

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I'm starting him, but can see the argument of wait and see.  For me that rehab start along with some of his comments are enough to tilt the scales to start.

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1 hour ago, duke of queens said:

Anyone rolling blister boy out there today?

 

I am, but in one case it was either him or Matz or Lugo at Coors. Encouraged enough by his last rehab start to break my normal rule about letting Rich Hill prove (in the majors) that he's on before I start him. I'll be sweating this one out.

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On 5/16/2018 at 7:00 PM, merlin401 said:

 

Another way to look at it was after June 15th he was a top 5 pitcher in baseball with exactly one bad start in that entire time period 

 

And even with the annoying nagging finger injuries of the first two+ months he still ended up ranked #66 in my leagues player rater (counts k:bb)

 

Well, maybe he will be a top 5 fantasy pitcher after June 15th this year too.  Or maybe he'll throw 2 pitches next start and leave with a blister.

 

Still though, Hill's upside is way too high for him to be unowned in any league when he's healthy.

 

It was a shame the bullpen blew his win, but what a fantastic start tonight in an extremely difficult matchup (on the road vs. the best offense in the NL in a very hitter friendly park).

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15 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

 

It was a shame the bullpen blew his win, but what a fantastic start tonight in an extremely difficult matchup (on the road vs. the best offense in the NL in a very hitter friendly park).

 

Indeed. I watched the first few innings and you can tell he still has it. His stuff is as good as ever and he can be just as good down the stretch as last year. His command was a little off early and it looks like it got better as the game went along. I would be buying stock where I could (although if someone held him this long why would they sell now?)

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Scooped him up after reading about how good he looked rehabbing and corrected a mechanical flaw. 

 

Huge 2nd half potential difference maker.

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