strahanfan92

Junior Guerra 2018 Outlook

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04.22... Junior Guerra allowed only an unearned run over five innings in Sunday's win over the Marlins.
Spin: Guerra gave up five hits and a walk, striking out four in the effort. He's now allowed just one earned run over his first three starts combined, resulting in a 0.56 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. That's a very promising development after the 33-year-old put up a 5.12 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 21 appearances last season. A good litmus test will come Saturday when Guerra squares off against the Cubs in Chicago.

 

Anybody buying in deeper leagues?

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Is this sustainable?  Curious if there's anything markedly different in the underlying metrics, or if this is just a nice run of outings.

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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

Is this sustainable?  Curious if there's anything markedly different in the underlying metrics, or if this is just a nice run of outings.

 

He did great in 2016 and was way down in 2017 but I think there was an injury involved wasn't there?  So why not a major comeback this season?

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17 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

He did great in 2016 and was way down in 2017 but I think there was an injury involved wasn't there?  So why not a major comeback this season?

 

I thought he was pretty good early in 2017 when I watched him but he had terrible numbers after his return. I didn't see him much after the return though so I don't know if it was injury related or what happened. 

 

I like the stuff though. Decent Fastball and then good whiffs on slider and splitter. A great combination for Ks. His team is good now too. 

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During yesterday's game they showed difference in release points last year and this year. He is now close to his 2016 look.

 

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I picked him up before yesterdays game and he came through for me. Plan on holding him until something changes.

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is this guy known to be inefficient, or just bad luck? Haven't seen him pitch 6 innings all year 

 

watched a bit of the game yesterday and he seemed to be cruising through 5 and then got into trouble in the 6th and was pulled 

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19 minutes ago, midlip said:

is this guy known to be inefficient, or just bad luck? Haven't seen him pitch 6 innings all year 

 

watched a bit of the game yesterday and he seemed to be cruising through 5 and then got into trouble in the 6th and was pulled 

 

Counsell is developing a reputation for a very quick hook this season with all of his starters.

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28 minutes ago, midlip said:

is this guy known to be inefficient, or just bad luck? Haven't seen him pitch 6 innings all year 

 

watched a bit of the game yesterday and he seemed to be cruising through 5 and then got into trouble in the 6th and was pulled 

 

Only threw 78 pitches yesterday.  Hard to get through 6 with that pitch count, unless you're Greg Maddux.

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I owned Guerra in 2016 and I've streamed him his past two starts, so I like what he's done for me thus far. That said, I don't view him as a  strong hold. How much longer can we expect his luck to hold up? Had a .250 BABIP in 2016, even had a .236 BABIP last year even when he stunk, and has a .244 BABIP through 3 starts this year. Maybe he will finish with a better than average BABIP, I don't view his stuff as being good enough to consistently elicit weak enough contact to warrant sub-.250 BABIP's. He's faced the Reds and Marlins at home his past two starts to prop him up. Even with that, his o-swing rate is down, his zone contact is up. Not a great recent for success. 

 

Two of his next three 3 projected starts are at the Cubs, and at Colorado. He's done very well vs Chicago in his career, but are you really trusting him there? And May 15th, his 4th start from now, is at Arizona. If Jake Lamb is back, how much trust do you have there? Can't see a lucky pitcher being a strong hold if you are using him once for the next month. 

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Anything to see here? good outing vs the Cubbies.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, craigmack said:

Anything to see here? good outing vs the Cubbies.

 

I used him today (but I tend to be aggressive with starting my pitchers). It assuaged my concerns when I saw the surprisingly low over/under (of 7) that Vegas set for the game. Once I had begun to watch it, I knew the reason for it. Chilly day at Wrigley with its ever almighty breeze blowing on in. The run-scoring "double" Guerra relinquished to Baez  was no such thing. All day long the fielders battled the capricious breeze and blinding Sun and two balls fell in that should have been caught. To the contrary, the scorching line drives, impervious to the elements, were more easily field-able. Guerra was both lucky and unlucky today. 

Edited by IceGoat

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Continues to deal and no chatter....nobody buying? Regression coming? 

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Shhh.....seems like a great sleeper.  I love what he's done so far and hope he can keep it going.  

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Damn him! The one game I have him for. Figures.

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Guerra is replicating what he did in 2016 when he was a great surprise for fantasy owners (myself included). ERA a tick down and WHIP and FIP almost identical. Strikeouts are up a bit as well. IMO he's a major BUY BUY BUY! 

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On ‎6‎/‎5‎/‎2018 at 5:36 PM, jvfantasy said:

Guerra is replicating what he did in 2016 when he was a great surprise for fantasy owners (myself included). ERA a tick down and WHIP and FIP almost identical. Strikeouts are up a bit as well. IMO he's a major BUY BUY BUY! 

Feeling good about starting Guerra this week?  One start versus the Cubs and one versus Philly.  

 

 

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Did he get bumped?  CBS had him staring tomorrow now shows next week vs Cubs?

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1 hour ago, Cmilne23 said:

Did he get bumped?  CBS had him staring tomorrow now shows next week vs Cubs?

ESPN has had Guerra versus the Cubs on Monday for a couple days now.  Cub offense is feast or famine.  So Guerra, who doesn't bring elite stuff to the table, is a bit of a risky play.  I do like the Philly matchup though.  So one out of two isn't bad if Guerra doesn't get bombed against Chicago.

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Another solid start from Guerra.  I like the fact that Counsell is very conservative with handling Guerra in terms of not letting him go past six innings.  I'll gladly give up the opportunity for extra strikeouts for those great ERA's and WHIP's.

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2 hours ago, Magnus88 said:

Another solid start from Guerra.  I like the fact that Counsell is very conservative with handling Guerra in terms of not letting him go past six innings.  I'll gladly give up the opportunity for extra strikeouts for those great ERA's and WHIP's.

True. His fantasy ranking isn’t as good as I expected, but it looks like its mostly because he doesn’t have many wins. And given how good the  Brewers have been, I think there is a good chance that changes. I wonder why he isn’t more widely owned (44% in Yahoo) or discussed?

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