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Jesus Aguilar 2018 Outlook

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2 hours ago, elsegundo said:

 

I chose to describe it as 'solid' because, while I love his production, I don't know that you can have a 'breakout' year while being in a platoon.... although yeah if he keeps crushing it then yes by all means let's revisit the discussion.  

 

Okay but yeah he hasn't been in a platoon for the last month plus though.  That's the thing and why he should be an everyday player.  To put him back in a platoon again after he has shown he is an everyday player kind of destroys a player.  I hate when that stuff happens.  So can we just get rid of Braun already and let the best people play.

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Out of the lineup versus righty tonight.  

 

Since Thames activated, 2 games versus lefties, 5 versus righties.

 

Cain and Yellich- all 7 games

Braun- 5 (all LF)

Thames- 4 (3 1B, one at LF)

Aguilar- 4 (all 1B)

Santana- 1 (RF, Yellich LF)

 

 

 

 

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Well at least he isn't getting the Santana treatment.  But still sucks with the lack of PT.

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chasing brewers 1b/of situation is like chasing saves ... these guys are pretty hard to roster when they miss 3 games a week but anybody can get injured at anytime and open up serious playing time for someone else who becomes a regular/impact player 

 

these guys have lots of value and no value all at the same time

 

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If you are in a daily transaction league with some bench room, it can make sense to roster 2 of the 3- Thames and Aguilar or Thames and Braun.  You'll almost always have a starter to plug in. The Aguilar-Thames platoon will be cheap to acquire and combined should put up some strong numbers.  Weekly transaction leagues or short bench leagues it is a tough call.  

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In the lineup today against a righty, hitting 3rd.  Thames playing RF, hitting 4th. Braun sitting and Yellich playing left. 

 

Seems like right now it is 2 out of 3 for Thames, Braun, and Aguilar.  All are hitting high up in the lineup when they play. Tough spot for fantasy leaguers, but I don't know how you can drop any of the three playing in a stacked lineup in a hitter's park, unless you are in a weekly transaction league.  

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On 6/18/2018 at 5:29 PM, EmbargoLifted said:

chasing brewers 1b/of situation is like chasing saves ... these guys are pretty hard to roster when they miss 3 games a week but anybody can get injured at anytime and open up serious playing time for someone else who becomes a regular/impact player 

 

these guys have lots of value and no value all at the same time

 

If you own Thames and Aguilar you can always play one of the two at 1B and one of the two will play every night. You wouldnt find a single 1B out there that produces as much as this combination

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6 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

If you own Thames and Aguilar you can always play one of the two at 1B and one of the two will play every night. You wouldnt find a single 1B out there that produces as much as this combination

So true = i own both and always have them in my utility spots.  If one is out i sub out for another OFer.

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3 hours ago, bluefrogguy said:

In the lineup today against a righty, hitting 3rd.  Thames playing RF, hitting 4th. Braun sitting and Yellich playing left. 

 

Seems like right now it is 2 out of 3 for Thames, Braun, and Aguilar.  All are hitting high up in the lineup when they play. Tough spot for fantasy leaguers, but I don't know how you can drop any of the three playing in a stacked lineup in a hitter's park, unless you are in a weekly transaction league.  

I def think owning Thames and Aguilar is the best bet  to maximize their production - and playing both and alternating when one of them is out is a great daily strategy.

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Aguilar will be getting 3B eligibility soon.  4 games played so far, one more for my cbs league.  Adds to his value

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1 hour ago, TheTruth024 said:

Aguilar will be getting 3B eligibility soon.  4 games played so far, one more for my cbs league.  Adds to his value

 

He won't in most leagues. Yahoo is the most liberal with the positional eligibility (comparing platforms' default settings), and Aguilar is still a ways away for Yahoo. He's only played 4 games at 3B and started 1...so he needs 6 more games or 4 more starts to gain 3B eligibility in Yahoo leagues. 

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13 hours ago, JetsAwesome said:

I def think owning Thames and Aguilar is the best bet  to maximize their production - and playing both and alternating when one of them is out is a great daily strategy.

Also takes a ton of work checking lineups in time every night.

 

Sweet Jesus this beast can mash. On nearly any other team he'd have a lineup spot every night, Crazy how the Brewers have this much depth.

 

He must be forcing their hand hitting this well. Just trade Braun, Crewers, simple solution!

 

Or just use Thames as a PH. He only has 3 hits and 1BB since his return... he's not very good.

Edited by swfcdan

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Indians have to be kicking themselves a bit.  Not insinuating Yonder Alonso is a bust as he has been pretty productive, but they could have gotten comparable production on the cheap from Aguilar.  Can't say I know much about what type of roster crunch they had at the time.

 

On the flip side, Brewers found both Aguilar on Thames on the trash heap.  Incredible depth.

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21 hours ago, RJWMN24 said:

Indians have to be kicking themselves a bit.  Not insinuating Yonder Alonso is a bust as he has been pretty productive, but they could have gotten comparable production on the cheap from Aguilar.  Can't say I know much about what type of roster crunch they had at the time.

 

On the flip side, Brewers found both Aguilar on Thames on the trash heap.  Incredible depth.

Ouch sounds painful.

 

Aguilar is tied in HRs with hitters like Arenado in many less ABs, the dude can mash. Surely they realise he must be a regular soon? He's better than both Braun and Thames now.

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3 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Ouch sounds painful.

 

Aguilar is tied in HRs with hitters like Arenado in many less ABs, the dude can mash. Surely they realise he must be a regular soon? He's better than both Braun and Thames now.

 

They do realize it. Problem is that Aguilar's defense is subpar at best. I think Counsell's logic is that the offensive dropoff from Aguilar down to Thames isn't as big as the defensive dropoff from Thames down to Aguilar.

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6 minutes ago, dele said:

 

They do realize it. Problem is that Aguilar's defense is subpar at best. I think Counsell's logic is that the offensive dropoff from Aguilar down to Thames isn't as big as the defensive dropoff from Thames down to Aguilar.

yes but with Braun nicked up recently - Counsell has been able to play both which maximizes their utility.

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42 minutes ago, dele said:

 

They do realize it. Problem is that Aguilar's defense is subpar at best. I think Counsell's logic is that the offensive dropoff from Aguilar down to Thames isn't as big as the defensive dropoff from Thames down to Aguilar.

I forget who this has been perpetrated by--I know Olberman tweeted out something like this, but Aguilar is more than fine at 1B. He's awfully nimble for a big dude and has soft enough hands that he can sorta pass by as a 3B from time to time. He also has a great stretch. He's basically forced his way into the lineup daily at this point. 

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1 hour ago, dele said:

 

They do realize it. Problem is that Aguilar's defense is subpar at best. I think Counsell's logic is that the offensive dropoff from Aguilar down to Thames isn't as big as the defensive dropoff from Thames down to Aguilar.

 

That is simply not accurate. When you look at Fangraph's UZR rankings and drop the minimum innnings to 150 in order to get Thames in the mix, Aguilar ranks 12th among 1B in UZR at 1.4...Thames ranks 27th at -0.3. Aguilar's career UZR is 1.3 across 1013 innings, and Thames' is -2.2 across 1019 innings at 1B.

 

Aguilar ranks 13th in UZR/150 at 4.4 at 1B this year with a career mark of 2.0. Thames ranks 33rd with a -4.1 UZR/150 at 1B and a career mark of -4.3. In DRS, Aguilar has a 0, and Thames a -1. 

 

Aguilar isn't a defensive whiz, but it's inaccurate to suggest that he's inferior to Thames defensively. In fact, he's a better defensive 1B than Thames. 

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I don't have a strong opinion either way, but UZR metrics in small samples (where "small" is "less than a full season") are notoriously unreliable.

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3 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I don't have a strong opinion either way, but UZR metrics in small samples (where "small" is "less than a full season") are notoriously unreliable.

 

Which is why I included their career UZR, and they have almost identical inning totals at 1B. Still doesn't put them at a full season, but gets them closer. And at over 1000 innings each, the disparity between the two is pretty vast, and it's still the best option out there for comparing the two, imo. 

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10 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

That is simply not accurate. When you look at Fangraph's UZR rankings and drop the minimum innnings to 150 in order to get Thames in the mix, Aguilar ranks 12th among 1B in UZR at 1.4...Thames ranks 27th at -0.3. Aguilar's career UZR is 1.3 across 1013 innings, and Thames' is -2.2 across 1019 innings at 1B.

 

Aguilar ranks 13th in UZR/150 at 4.4 at 1B this year with a career mark of 2.0. Thames ranks 33rd with a -4.1 UZR/150 at 1B and a career mark of -4.3. In DRS, Aguilar has a 0, and Thames a -1. 

 

Aguilar isn't a defensive whiz, but it's inaccurate to suggest that he's inferior to Thames defensively. In fact, he's a better defensive 1B than Thames. 

 

I understand what the UZR says. I'm also a Brewers fan and watch them most days, and I own Aguilar in fantasy. I want him to be in the lineup everyday. But based on watching the games and seeing Counsell's patterns, it seems like he perceives Thames as the better defender. I'm only trying to provide perspective on why I think Aguilar will be more like a 70-80% time player than a 100% time player ROS. The metrics don't matter here until they start to shape Counsell's thinking; it's what Counsell thinks of their comparative defensive ability that counts. And he's made it pretty clear that he doesn't rate Aguilar's defense at 1B all that highly compared to that of either Braun or Thames.

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9 minutes ago, dele said:

 

I understand what the UZR says. I'm also a Brewers fan and watch them most days, and I own Aguilar in fantasy. I want him to be in the lineup everyday. But based on watching the games and seeing Counsell's patterns, it seems like he perceives Thames as the better defender. I'm only trying to provide perspective on why I think Aguilar will be more like a 70-80% time player than a 100% time player ROS. The metrics don't matter here until they start to shape Counsell's thinking; it's what Counsell thinks of their comparative defensive ability that counts. And he's made it pretty clear that he doesn't rate Aguilar's defense at 1B all that highly compared to that of either Braun or Thames.

 

I appreciate you bringing the perspective of a fan who's more tuned into the manager. That's one of the things that makes this site great. I wasn't trying to argue with you (probably should have started my post differently), but was just trying to compare the statistical evidence. I won't pretend to know more than Counsell or pretend to know more about his own players than him, but I do believe the metrics show that Aguilar is the superior defensive 1B...at least through his and Thames' first 1000 innings. But I also understand that Thames is the more athletically impressive player, too, and he probably passes the eye test more. 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

 But I also understand that Thames is the more athletically impressive player, too, and he probably passes the eye test more. 

 

I didn't take your post as overly combative. It was a nice exchange of posts. I think the above is the key thing. However, with Santana's struggles and apparent residency in the doghouse, we may see more of Thames in the OF with Aguilar at 1B. Here's to hoping for continued regular ABs and great production from Aguilar.

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