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Jesus Aguilar 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, chud12 said:

Does anyone have any concerns about his long term staying power?? Not taking this year but the next 2-5 years. 

 

Based on his minor league advance metrics I believe the power is 100% sustainable.  I will own him next season.  

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3 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I don't believe the BA will stick around. Even this year, I think he drops back to the .270-.280 range, and I suspect he'll be more of a .260ish type hitter over his career. I don't think he continues his HR pace, either. In a redraft league, this might be as good a time as any to try to sell high on him (depending on what you can get for him). In keepers and dynasties, however, I'd hang on. He's a big man with a big swing who plays in a HR-friendly ballpark. While he may not be a .305-51-141 guy (his current 550 AB pace), I do believe he's a legit .265-35-100 type of hitter with upside for more over the next 2-5 years. In auction leagues where his price is likely low and in keeper leagues that tag players with rounds, the guy is worth his weight in gold...and at three bills, that's a lot of gold. 

 

A couple of good signs for me are his walk and K rates. He's walking more this year than he did last year...not a ton, but more (8.0% in 2017; 9.1% in 2018). And he's striking out less (30.2% in 2017; 26.7% in 2018). 

 

He's also just straight up mashing the ball .. there's nothing fluky about the performance .. he's getting barrels on balls and launching perfect-degreed-angled missiles all over the field .. this is a very valuable talent in the high-velocity era of MLB

 

Agular is a hold unless someone is willing to cough up whatever .300/40/120 is worth to you

 

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3 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

He's also just straight up mashing the ball .. there's nothing fluky about the performance .. he's getting barrels on balls and launching perfect-degreed-angled missiles all over the field .. this is a very valuable talent in the high-velocity era of MLB

 

Agular is a hold unless someone is willing to cough up whatever .300/40/120 is worth to you

 

 

Yeah, I'm not suggesting anyone start shopping him...just saying he's probably at the peak of his price tag right now in redrafts. So if someone in a redraft with depth at 1B wants to try to sell him for a piece or two that can help round out a roster for a title run, then I can understand that. But his question was about the next 2-5 years, so I probably shouldn't have addressed that at all, lol. I wouldn't deal him in keepers or dynasties unless I got great value for him. Maybe he sucks the next 2-5 years, lol, but I'm definitely keeping him to find out :). 

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Jeff Sullivan, Fangraphs: There’s No Ignoring Jesus Aguilar Anymore

 

Sullivan's theory on why the results are so much better this season:

 

Quote

Against fastballs in the zone in 2017, Aguilar made contact when swinging 74% of the time, which ranked him in the 6th percentile. Against fastballs in the zone in 2018, Aguilar has made contact when swinging 88% of the time, which ranks him in the 59th percentile. His is the third-biggest improvement in baseball, as far as this measure is concerned, and it means Aguilar isn’t so easy to put away with elevated heat. Those whiffs against fastballs up in the zone have started to go away, and Aguilar’s numbers have climbed as a result. He’s a power hitter, but his swing isn’t so complicated and long that he gets himself tied up.

 

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Just bumping for another dong here to avoid The Rotoworld Forums Curse, whereby a player who doesn't get their thread bumped after crushing a dong goes into an extended slump.

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Seems like every time I see the Brewers have scored and I go to check the box score, it is another Jesus bomb! Only problem is the usually seem to be solo bombs. But no complaints from me.

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Not including whatever he does today, over 2017-18, Aguilar is hitting .282-88-40-122-0 across 549 AB. 

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[HR Derby derail removed.  Go here if you want to talk about the "curse", or here if you want to discuss anything else about the derby.]

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11 minutes ago, octapuss said:

Getting painful.....get that power stroking going.

 

He was 2/4 the other night. He’s playing at ATT this weekend so not surprised with the power deficit. 

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13 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

It is called "a slump" and even Mike Trout has them.

 

Apples and oranges. I think everyone expects this guy to fall of a cliff at some point. Owners are justifiably nervous. 

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3 minutes ago, Stickfig13 said:

Apples and oranges. I think everyone expects this guy to fall of a cliff at some point. Owners are justifiably nervous. 

 

You probably don't really believe "everyone" here, do you?  Clearly there are precedents for late-bloomers to have stretches of elite production longer than a half a season.  There are also guys who have fizzled out, but a lot of the peripherals say what Aguilar's doing is real.  That doesn't mean he won't fall off a bit, but not every out-of-nowhere player falls off a cliff, and I, for one, am not nervous based on a 4 for 30 stretch.

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19 minutes ago, Stickfig13 said:

 

Apples and oranges. I think everyone expects this guy to fall of a cliff at some point. Owners are justifiably nervous. 

 

As my momma used to tell me, "That's what you get for thinking." :D

 

Not everyone expects him to fall off a cliff. I don't think anyone figures he'll hit 50 HR, but I fully expect 38-42 HR out of him if he stays healthy. But if he hits just another 10-12 HR from this point on, that's not falling off the cliff, imho. I will gladly take that production from him. 

Edited by Flyman75
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4 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

You probably don't really believe "everyone" here, do you?  Clearly there are precedents for late-bloomers to have stretches of elite production longer than a half a season.  There are also guys who have fizzled out, but a lot of the peripherals say what Aguilar's doing is real.  That doesn't mean he won't fall off a bit, but not every out-of-nowhere player falls off a cliff, and I, for one, am not nervous based on a 4 for 30 stretch.

Also in a 12-game stretch from May 28 to June 13 he went 8-46 and he bounced back from that.

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2 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

You probably don't really believe "everyone" here, do you?  Clearly there are precedents for late-bloomers to have stretches of elite production longer than a half a season.  There are also guys who have fizzled out, but a lot of the peripherals say what Aguilar's doing is real.  That doesn't mean he won't fall off a bit, but not every out-of-nowhere player falls off a cliff, and I, for one, am not nervous based on a 4 for 30 stretch.

 

I think the real question for these players though isn't falling off the cliff-- it's trying to determine where the fall from grace lands. The fall, statistically speaking, was pretty imminent for a player with such gaudy numbers. FWIW, I'm not a huge believer, personally, depending on what we're expecting. I think Aguilar could be a good starter in the bigs at 1st, and a solid bat... maybe .260/30. I'm not very convinced he can be much better yet tho. He's SLG'n .726 and .674 against fastball variants, but .296 SLG v. Change-Ups and .323 v. Curves. And while he hits Sliders well when he makes contact, I think his combination of Whiffs and Ks against the pitch types mean he is playin ga bit over his head. 

 

I consider a secondary pitch Whiff% of 20+% to be a concerning pitch for a hitter. Aguilar's are 23+% on Change-Ups, roughly 22% on Sliders, and 18+% on Curveballs. That's a lot of non-fastball whiffs.

 

So do I believe Aguilar is going to hit the floor? No. But I don't know that I fully buy into the breakout either. 

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