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Saquon Barkley 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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Just now, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

If he was good enough to start for the #1 running game - i’ll take it 

 

(I expect 2 OL drafted at least in rounds 2-4)

that's not very good logic. That's like saying  Michale Oher is good because he was the RT on the 2012 Ravens, and 2015 Panthers

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1 minute ago, Chippa said:

that's not very good logic. That's like saying  Michale Oher is good because he was the RT on the 2012 Ravens, and 2015 Panthers

 

Pugh, Richburg, Jerry were routinely abused in the run game ... like pushed back into the RB in short yardage bad 

 

so, if good enough to start for the #1 running game - I’m gonna go ahead and assume he isn’t a rag doll in terms of run blocking 

 

yeah, they replaced him - with possibly the best guard in the league that every team would want 

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4 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

WHere would everyone be ok taking him 12 team Ppr redraft?

 

Mid first.

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4 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Offensive line keeps on improving. Earth mover Will Hernandez is coming to open up some holes for Barkley. 

 

- He was going to be the pick in they traded back in the first 

 

- Barkley, Hernandez, Carter, Hill ... every single one of them will contribute day 1 (the last 3 they never thought would even be available)

 

 

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You guys love your rookies.  As per usual, put me in the, 'not a chance in hell for the first round' and the 'I'll let someone else take that risk in the 2nd' categories.  If McCoy, Gronk, and AJ Green are still on the board (PPR)... I'm not taking the risk of a rookie on the Giants that early.  His measurables are off the charts, his upside is top 3... I get it.  I'm not denying it, I'm not arguing it.  That's just not how I draft.  I'll probably have him ranked somewhere between 10-15, but he's just a risk I pray someone else takes, so I don't even have to consider it.

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18 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Giants are well on the way to fixing the O Line. They could possibly pick G Will Hernandez with the top pick in the 2nd rd to join Solder and Omameh. 

 

Nice call.

 

Also, in PPR, the Giants won't need a dominant O-line for Barkley to be very productive.

 

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8 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

You guys love your rookies.  As per usual, put me in the, 'not a chance in hell for the first round' and the 'I'll let someone else take that risk in the 2nd' categories.  If McCoy, Gronk, and AJ Green are still on the board (PPR)... I'm not taking the risk of a rookie on the Giants that early.  His measurables are off the charts, his upside is top 3... I get it.  I'm not denying it, I'm not arguing it.  That's just not how I draft.  I'll probably have him ranked somewhere between 10-15, but he's just a risk I pray someone else takes, so I don't even have to consider it.

 

No way would I take McCoy or Green over Barkley. Not a chance.

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Off the charts talent

Solder, Hernandez

7 Man fronts (thanks Odell)

 

There aren’t 10 players I’d rather have 

 

(Gurley, Bell, DJ, Zeke, Brown, Odell, Hopkins, Julio, Green probably it ... even then I’d be torn)

 

* Yes I would take him over Fournette, especially in PPR

** Wouldn’t surprise me if he outscored Zeke / DJ in PPR either 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast
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8 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

You guys love your rookies.  As per usual, put me in the, 'not a chance in hell for the first round' and the 'I'll let someone else take that risk in the 2nd' categories.  If McCoy, Gronk, and AJ Green are still on the board (PPR)... I'm not taking the risk of a rookie on the Giants that early.  His measurables are off the charts, his upside is top 3... I get it.  I'm not denying it, I'm not arguing it.  That's just not how I draft.  I'll probably have him ranked somewhere between 10-15, but he's just a risk I pray someone else takes, so I don't even have to consider it.

 

yeah talent aside it's nice to say he is a 1st rd fantasy pick but facing the reality of building a winning team it doesnt make sense to gamble on an unproven rookie on a new offense with a new HC; add to that there will be plenty of solid rb choices available past the 1st rd, it makes it a lot easier to let someone else take the risk. 

As a personal discipline I don't think about touching rookies until the 3rd rd. 

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15 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Offensive line keeps on improving. Earth mover Will Hernandez is coming to open up some holes for Barkley. 

 

Mel Kiper Jr. on Will Hernandez during the draft last night: "Best run blocking lineman that I have seen in the last 25 years"

Edited by nonstopfan
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4 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Mel Kiper Jr. on Will Hernandez during the draft last night: "Best run blocking lineman that I have seen in the last 25 years"

 

Add Solder, one of the best run blocking left tackles too ... and a coach who has more running plays than a Tecmo playbook - oh, and the freak of nature running back ...

 

Gonna be fun. Barkley/Hernandez/Carter is literally my dream draft 

 

 

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2 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

I “reached” for Zeke in the first round his rookie year

 

It worked out ok 

 

No risk, no reward 

 

These are completely different risks we're talking about in my opinion.  Dallas was already a good team, already had a top 5 OLine, and in just the previous year, lead Darren McFadden close to 1500 total yards, which was proceeded by D.Murray's 2200 the year prior, and another ~1500 yard season before that one.  If you dropped Barkely into LeVeon Bells spot, then I wouldn't be this cynical.  But he's being dropped into the Giants.  You all can go on and on and on about how good this Oline 'should be' but how many times have we seen this narrative?  An Oline is not 5 individual studs blocking.  They have to work together, gel, etc etc.  So personally I don't care how good they are 'on paper' unless I see them executing 'on field'.  Luckily I don't have any meaningful drafts until after PreSeason, so I'll have ample opportunities for the Giants to change my mind.  The Giants are (we're*) a bad team (I don't care what their record was in '16; they sucked) that hasn't had a fantasy relevant RB since Ahmad Bradshaw, 6 years ago.  Their OLine has been trash and the entire team, outside of OBJ, has been mediocre at best for even longer than that.

 

I think the Giants have done well lately to rebuild.  OBJ, Engram, Barkley and an OLine... now they just need a QB ;)

Point being, as stated initially, I see the upside of top 3 when you combine his talent with the potential of his situation.  But it is still just 'potential' as of today.

 

No risk, no reward doesn't apply here and personally I think it's a misguided logic at this stage of the draft (1st and 2nd rounds of a Fantasy Draft).  There is PLENTY of reward to be had in the 1st and 2nd rounds if you decide not to take Barkley.

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4 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

** Wouldn’t surprise me if he outscored Zeke / DJ in PPR either 

 

tumblr_m1iy7wdQjX1qf39wc.jpg

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44 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

These are completely different risks we're talking about in my opinion.  Dallas was already a good team, already had a top 5 OLine, and in just the previous year, lead Darren McFadden close to 1500 total yards, which was proceeded by D.Murray's 2200 the year prior, and another ~1500 yard season before that one.  If you dropped Barkely into LeVeon Bells spot, then I wouldn't be this cynical.  But he's being dropped into the Giants.  You all can go on and on and on about how good this Oline 'should be' but how many times have we seen this narrative?  An Oline is not 5 individual studs blocking.  They have to work together, gel, etc etc.  So personally I don't care how good they are 'on paper' unless I see them executing 'on field'.  Luckily I don't have any meaningful drafts until after PreSeason, so I'll have ample opportunities for the Giants to change my mind.  The Giants are (we're*) a bad team (I don't care what their record was in '16; they sucked) that hasn't had a fantasy relevant RB since Ahmad Bradshaw, 6 years ago.  Their OLine has been trash and the entire team, outside of OBJ, has been mediocre at best for even longer than that.

 

I think the Giants have done well lately to rebuild.  OBJ, Engram, Barkley and an OLine... now they just need a QB ;)

Point being, as stated initially, I see the upside of top 3 when you combine his talent with the potential of his situation.  But it is still just 'potential' as of today.

 

No risk, no reward doesn't apply here and personally I think it's a misguided logic at this stage of the draft (1st and 2nd rounds of a Fantasy Draft).  There is PLENTY of reward to be had in the 1st and 2nd rounds if you decide not to take Barkley.

 

I don't remember you advocating for Zeke in 2016 as a top-24 ADP despite all this support you claim he had as a rookie. 

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

 

These are completely different risks we're talking about in my opinion.  Dallas was already a good team, already had a top 5 OLine, and in just the previous year, lead Darren McFadden close to 1500 total yards, which was proceeded by D.Murray's 2200 the year prior, and another ~1500 yard season before that one.  If you dropped Barkely into LeVeon Bells spot, then I wouldn't be this cynical.  But he's being dropped into the Giants.  You all can go on and on and on about how good this Oline 'should be' but how many times have we seen this narrative?  An Oline is not 5 individual studs blocking.  They have to work together, gel, etc etc.  So personally I don't care how good they are 'on paper' unless I see them executing 'on field'.  Luckily I don't have any meaningful drafts until after PreSeason, so I'll have ample opportunities for the Giants to change my mind.  The Giants are (we're*) a bad team (I don't care what their record was in '16; they sucked) that hasn't had a fantasy relevant RB since Ahmad Bradshaw, 6 years ago.  Their OLine has been trash and the entire team, outside of OBJ, has been mediocre at best for even longer than that.

 

I think the Giants have done well lately to rebuild.  OBJ, Engram, Barkley and an OLine... now they just need a QB ;)

Point being, as stated initially, I see the upside of top 3 when you combine his talent with the potential of his situation.  But it is still just 'potential' as of today.

 

No risk, no reward doesn't apply here and personally I think it's a misguided logic at this stage of the draft (1st and 2nd rounds of a Fantasy Draft).  There is PLENTY of reward to be had in the 1st and 2nd rounds if you decide not to take Barkley.

 

Cool. I prefer being early on things rather than “ok, now it’s safe to take him early” in 2019.

 

 

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On 4/27/2018 at 1:55 PM, joshua18 said:

 

Barkley will be gone by the 1/2 turn in most leagues

 

 

Barkley is a better risk than Evans.  I’d take him after Hunt and Cook.

 

That’s about 13-14 overall.  

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2 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

I don't remember you advocating for Zeke in 2016 as a top-24 ADP despite all this support you claim he had as a rookie. 

 

I don't remember claiming I advocated for Zeke in 2016, so what's your point?

 

1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

If you dropped Barkely into LeVeon Bells spot, then I wouldn't be this cynical.

 

Unless you think the term 'wouldn't be this cynical' is synonymous with 'advocating for'?

 

I'm tired of doing people's researching for them:

"Anyone should be successful behind the DAL Oline. Both [Was referring to DJ] of these backs have the talent, potential, and situation to end the year at #1.  But at a 1st round price tag, I'll let someone else find out.  If my opponents 1st round pick finishes #1, it's not going to effect my season."

 

2 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Cool. I prefer being early on things rather than “ok, now it’s safe to take him early” in 2019.

Absolutely nothing wrong with that.  Just explaining why I don't feel Zeke and Barkely's situations were the same.  Zeke walked into the perfect scenario from day 1.  Barkley walked into a bad situation, that has the potential to become a great situation.

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3 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

But at a 1st round price tag, I'll let someone else find out.  If my opponents 1st round pick finishes #1, it's not going to effect my season."

 

Absolutely nothing wrong with that.  Just explaining why I don't feel Zeke and Barkely's situations were the same.  Zeke walked into the perfect scenario from day 1.  Barkley walked into a bad situation, that has the potential to become a great situation.

 

How was losing his starting QB right before the season and having to start a 4th rd rookie from week 1 an ideal scenario?

 

Revisionism at its finest. 

 

 

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Barkley can do it all. There's no doubt he'll be successful with NY. They did a lot to address the O-line situation this offseason. Rookie of the year. I have no problem over drafting him.

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15 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

How was losing his starting QB right before the season and having to start a 4th rd rookie from week 1 an ideal scenario?

 

Revisionism at its finest. 

 

 

 

Many fantasy leagues had already drafted before Romo went down last week of August. I know all of my leagues were drafted by then.

So the assumption up to that game was Romo would start and zeke was in an ideal offense for his skill sets which was why people were taking him in the 1st rd. Many also thought Romo would return in time to toake over for a playoff run but that didnt happen.

Nothing revisionist about it. The o-line performed like it had for the previous 4 seasons and was just as dominant. 

 

The surprise was that Dak outperformed most expectations for a rookie taking over from Romo.

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2 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

Barkley can do it all. There's no doubt he'll be successful with NY. They did a lot to address the O-line situation this offseason. Rookie of the year. I have no problem over drafting him.

 

Problem with the  'address the o-line ' thinking is that 0-lines don't automatically gel and perform because you stick a bunch of talented guys together. O-lines have to develop a rhythm and rapport with each other as a unit.   As corny as it sounds they literally have to play like a single entity to be effective.  The best o-lines play with each other for years and are anchored by long term vets. 

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9 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Problem with the  'address the o-line ' thinking is that 0-lines don't automatically gel and perform because you stick a bunch of talented guys together. O-lines have to develop a rhythm and rapport with each other as a unit.   As corny as it sounds they literally have to play like a single entity to be effective.  The best o-lines play with each other for years and are anchored by long term vets. 

 

I have always compared the O-line to dancing, except in this case you have 4 partners. They need to move as a unit  as you stated and that takes time.

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6 minutes ago, wahl35 said:

 

I have always compared the O-line to dancing, except in this case you have 4 partners. They need to move as a unit  as you stated and that takes time.

 

I prefer the analogies of a Viking shield wall or the phalanx of Sparta’s warriors, but dancing is nice too.

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