cohenstantinople

Saquon Barkley 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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18 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Seven reasons why Barkley will fail to produce numbers Week 1:

 

DE Calais Campbell*+
DE Yannick Ngakoue*
DT Malik Jackson*
NT Abry Jones
MLB Paul Posluszny
LB Myles Jack
LB Telvin Smith*

 

He’s awesome, but Barkley cannot do it all. 

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

 

A overrated / mediocre run defense that’s middle of the road vs RB’s in the passing game? 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/fantasy-points-against-RB.htm

 

Those guys? 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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14 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

Solder is an average run blocker.

 

Omameh was a horrible run blocker last year.  Not really debatable.  What is debatable is whether he starts over Jerry.

 

83.2 run blocking grade ... but ok 

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-the-best-offensive-line-options-in-free-agency

 

 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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46 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Likely puts him around 14th or 15th.  Slightly above average probably would have been more accurate.  Edit: I don't subscribe to PFF but had a friend who does check.  He was 14th.

 

Throughout his career, the Patriots left tackle has been the definition of solid – grading above 70.0 for every single season of his career. Reliability is the best ability for an offensive tackle and Solder certainly offers that.

He’s coming off arguably the worst season of his entire career though. Solder allowed a career high 51 total pressures, including seven in one game against the Chargers. His 83.2 run-blocking grade was still one of the best figures in the league though.

 

And Omameh's grade? 

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5 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Likely puts him around 14th or 15th.  Slightly above average probably would have been more accurate.  Edit: I don't subscribe to PFF but had a friend who does check.  He was 14th.

 

Throughout his career, the Patriots left tackle has been the definition of solid – grading above 70.0 for every single season of his career. Reliability is the best ability for an offensive tackle and Solder certainly offers that.

He’s coming off arguably the worst season of his entire career though. Solder allowed a career high 51 total pressures, including seven in one game against the Chargers. His 83.2 run-blocking grade was still one of the best figures in the league though.

 

And Omameh's grade? 

 

Solder: “His run blocking was still one of the best figures in the league”. Somehow you interpret that as average. Even average would be a significant upgrade - but he is fact an excellent run blocker.

 

Omameh is mediocre, never suggested otherwise. 

 

 

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54 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Solder: “His run blocking was still one of the best figures in the league”. Somehow you interpret that as average. Even average would be a significant upgrade - but he is fact an excellent run blocker.

 

Omameh is mediocre, never suggested otherwise. 

 

 

 

14th out of 60...that's not excellent.  More like above average.

 

Omameh is horrible.

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5 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

14th out of 60...that's not excellent.  More like above average.

 

Omameh is horrible.

 

Nate Solder is a good left tackle. 

Nate Solder is an excellent run blocker.

Nate Solder is a significant upgrade for the Giants.

 

Omameh, despite being “horrible”, started for the #1 rushing team in football and was dominant vs Pittsburg in the playoffs

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/15/pff-grades-2-ol-lead-the-jags-to-victory-vs-steelers/amp/

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bigcatcountry.com/platform/amp/2017/10/2/16400200/jaguars-vs-jets-pff-notes-and-grades-after-week-4-embarrassment

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2017/10/05/jaguars-ol-atop-the-league-in-pass-blocking-efficiency-according-to-pff/amp/

 

So, lights out early in the season ... played banged up, ultimately missed 3 games, came back and was dominant in the playoffs.

 

I’m not saying he’s anything special, but “horrible” players don’t receive reviews like that and start on the leagues #1 rush offense. I’d say mediocre is more accurate, which unfortunately is still an upgrade for the Giants of last year. 

 

Jones filled it quite well for overrated Richburg, and is the reason they didn’t even bother trying to re-sign him. He’s a decent center / plug in.

 

Insert Will Hernandez, one or the most dominant run blocking prospects to come out in awhile : https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-giants-select-will-hernandez-34th-overall

 

This offensive line is going to be a lot better, especially in the run game. Will they be great? No - and neither was the Jags OL last year ( #1 run game last year) 

 

That guy Odell should help keep defenders out of the box some too.

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2 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Mixon... nowhere near as good, competition for touches 

 

Henry ... Demarco Murray

 

Mccaffrey ... PPR Format 

 

Sankey, Michael ... ha.

 

 

My point being, all of them were the top or near the top of their respective rookie classes.  I happen to think Barkley can be a not so lite version of Tomlinson.  I would take him in the first round.  But he hasn't established himself in the NFL yet.  If the difference between what I think Barkley is and what I KNOW Antonio Brown is, logically I should hold off.  He has the same risk factors (injury, key teammate injury, etc.) that every elite fantasy player has, but also has to get caught up to speed on the offense, and possibly could have peaked in college.  It lowers the expected value enough that I really should be taking the veteran guy.  

 

I might get lucky.  But that doesn't mean it's the logical, data driven pick.

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43 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

My point being, all of them were the top or near the top of their respective rookie classes.  I happen to think Barkley can be a not so lite version of Tomlinson.  I would take him in the first round.  But he hasn't established himself in the NFL yet.  If the difference between what I think Barkley is and what I KNOW Antonio Brown is, logically I should hold off.  He has the same risk factors (injury, key teammate injury, etc.) that every elite fantasy player has, but also has to get caught up to speed on the offense, and possibly could have peaked in college.  It lowers the expected value enough that I really should be taking the veteran guy.  

 

I might get lucky.  But that doesn't mean it's the logical, data driven pick.

 

Brown, Hopkins, Odell, Bell, Evans, DJ, Green, Julio, Zeke 

 

probably the only guys I’d take over him (and I’d be highly tempted to take him over Green, Julio, Zeke, Evans) 

 

Obviously needs to prove it, but he absolutely has the DJ/Bell “upside”. I assume he goes from league winning “steal” to universal top 3 pick in 2019 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Brown, Hopkins, Odell, Bell, Evans, DJ, Green, Julio, Zeke 

 

probably the only guys I’d take over him (and I’d be highly tempted to take him over Green, Julio, Zeke, Evans) 

 

Obviously needs to prove it, but he absolutely has the DJ/Bell “upside”. I assume he goes from league winning “steal” to universal top 3 pick in 2019 

 

 

That already drops him to the 10th pick.  Looking at guys like Thomas, Kamara, Hunt, DJ, McCoy, it's not crazy to push him into the second round.  

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10 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Then using your premise  as a basis for drafting strategy you can spend your 1st round pick on a kicker and obtain the same random result.

Correct?:)

 

No. My premise is that variability is an asset for your team because the games are discrete events. Its not random at all, you need to play probabilities not averages.

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10 minutes ago, AJJones said:

 

No. My premise is that variability is an asset for your team because the games are discrete events. Its not random at all, you need to play probabilities not averages.

 

I agree variability is an assett for your team  however you make the bet on the higher volatility players with the cheaper draft capital of the later rounds and you secure the less volatile high performing players with the most expensive draft capital of the earlier rounds.  

Barkley is an unknown player with higher risk/volatility compared to veteran players who are 1st round candidates with more predictiable outcomes such as bell-zeke-gordon-kamara-ingram.-gurley-hunt-AB-hopkins-AJG-OBJ- etc,etc

You basically have more assumptions baked into his possible outcomes rather than the historical data you have with the others. 

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2 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Brown, Hopkins, Odell, Bell, Evans, DJ, Green, Julio, Zeke 

 

probably the only guys I’d take over him (and I’d be highly tempted to take him over Green, Julio, Zeke, Evans) 

 

Obviously needs to prove it, but he absolutely has the DJ/Bell “upside”. I assume he goes from league winning “steal” to universal top 3 pick in 2019 

 

 

 

 

 

Gurley?

 

And you can get Evans to pair with him. My hope anyhow. Evans is at 2.08 now.

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5 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Nate Solder is a good left tackle. 

Nate Solder is an excellent run blocker.

Nate Solder is a significant upgrade for the Giants.

 

Omameh, despite being “horrible”, started for the #1 rushing team in football and was dominant vs Pittsburg in the playoffs

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/15/pff-grades-2-ol-lead-the-jags-to-victory-vs-steelers/amp/

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bigcatcountry.com/platform/amp/2017/10/2/16400200/jaguars-vs-jets-pff-notes-and-grades-after-week-4-embarrassment

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2017/10/05/jaguars-ol-atop-the-league-in-pass-blocking-efficiency-according-to-pff/amp/

 

So, lights out early in the season ... played banged up, ultimately missed 3 games, came back and was dominant in the playoffs.

 

I’m not saying he’s anything special, but “horrible” players don’t receive reviews like that and start on the leagues #1 rush offense. I’d say mediocre is more accurate, which unfortunately is still an upgrade for the Giants of last year. 

 

Jones filled it quite well for overrated Richburg, and is the reason they didn’t even bother trying to re-sign him. He’s a decent center / plug in.

 

Insert Will Hernandez, one or the most dominant run blocking prospects to come out in awhile : https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-giants-select-will-hernandez-34th-overall

 

This offensive line is going to be a lot better, especially in the run game. Will they be great? No - and neither was the Jags OL last year ( #1 run game last year) 

 

That guy Odell should help keep defenders out of the box some too.

 

Omameh finished the season with a 53.6 overall grade,  a 59.1  pass block grade, and a 50.2 run block grade.  That run blocking grade ranked him 57th in the league.

 

As a point of comparison, Jerry was at 71.4 overall, 78.3 pass, 49.9 run. 

 

That's what pff's grades were.   My personal observation was that he was by far the weakest link on that oline and was a crappy player.

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Would’ve loved to keep Fluker to help the run game on the right side but the moves made this offseason have been encouraging. Hopefully, the line gels quickly. 

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15 hours ago, South Carolina said:

 

He's going to get a ton of touches regardless. He'll be top 10 in total yardage for sure and you know it Book it Cuh.

 

He should be his rookie contract as the #2 pick puts him as the 4th highest paid rb in the NFL  and  that will be about a 6mm cap hit before he takes a snap.

Perspective is Kamara contract counts as 1mm against the saints cap.

The giants are betting alot on Barkley's stud potential. 

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3 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

He should be his rookie contract as the #2 pick puts him as the 4th highest paid rb in the NFL  and  that will be about a 6mm cap hit before he takes a snap.

Perspective is Kamara contract counts as 1mm against the saints cap.

The giants are betting alot on Barkley's stud potential. 

He needs to put up Bell type numbers to be worth the second overall pick at RB. 

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Does anybody else worry about Shula being the offensive coordinator?  That plus offensive line kinda  worries as a first rounder.

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4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

He needs to put up Bell type numbers to be worth the second overall pick at RB. 

 

Yeah that's the part the generational talent crowd refuses to accept when it comes to draft and salary cap economics. 

Now the majority of the league could be wrong and are severely underpricing do it all rb's and maybe Bell-DJ-zeke and potentially Barkley will reset the market going forward.

I will give getteman credit he is backing up his philosophy with Mara's money :lol:

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20 hours ago, jbshaw said:

Mixon, Sankey, Henry, McCaffrey in standard, Christine Michael say hi.

 

McCaffrey was a stud in PPR. Henry was blocked by Murray. We're not truly comparing Sankey and Christine Michael to the players I listed, right?

 

Mixon is the only RB I will say was disappointing from this list. 

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6 minutes ago, drumr470 said:

 

McCaffrey was a stud in PPR. Henry was blocked by Murray. We're not truly comparing Sankey and Christine Michael to the players I listed, right?

 

Mixon is the only RB I will say was disappointing from this list. 

 

thank you ... and Mixon is nowhere near the prospect Barkley is. 

 

Barkley's OL will not be "great", but it should be vastly improved from last year. (Solder, Hernandez, Jones could be a dominant left side). 

 

Also, Barkley can kill you in so many ways ... didn't have a great OL in college either. 

 

 

Freak. 

 

* Do not forget the presence of Odell Beckham ... Barkley should see plenty of 7 man fronts - or Odell will rip off 200 yards a game in man coverage. 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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Neither one of those plays really show what Barkley brings to the table besides speed.

 

Try these.

 

 

 

 

Edited by AJJones

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On 4/30/2018 at 9:33 AM, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

thank you ... and Mixon is nowhere near the prospect Barkley is. 

 

Barkley's OL will not be "great", but it should be vastly improved from last year. (Solder, Hernandez, Jones could be a dominant left side). 

 

Also, Barkley can kill you in so many ways ... didn't have a great OL in college either. 

 

 

Freak. 

 

* Do not forget the presence of Odell Beckham ... Barkley should see plenty of 7 man fronts - or Odell will rip off 200 yards a game in man coverage. 

 

I wish I could draft the Penn State cheerleaders on to my personal "practice squad".

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On 4/30/2018 at 9:27 AM, drumr470 said:

 

McCaffrey was a stud in PPR. Henry was blocked by Murray. We're not truly comparing Sankey and Christine Michael to the players I listed, right?

 

Mixon is the only RB I will say was disappointing from this list. 

 

You use 'stud' pretty loosely.

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29 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

You use 'stud' pretty loosely.

 

Well he was RB10 in PPR and 2 points behind Fournette so....

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