dashoe

BOLD PREDICTIONS 2018 SEASON

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Jerick McKinnon scores more fantasy points than Todd Gurley.

Only if Gurley falls short of about 750 rushing yards, 60 receptions, 400 receiving yards, and 5 total TDs.

 

High end PPR RB2. I'll go as far as to predict that at least 2 RBs from my previous post will outscore McKinnon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Only if Gurley falls short of about 750 rushing yards, 60 receptions, 400 receiving yards, and 5 total TDs.

 

High end PPR RB2. I'll go as far as to predict that at least 2 RBs from my previous post will outscore McKinnon.

ajs723--

 

I detect that you are a stat-head.  That is not necessarily a bad thing.  But focusing overly on historical stats can prevent the fantasy player from recognizing when a player has experienced a dramatic change in circumstances.

 

You seem to be projecting McKinnon to roughly equal his production from last season.  But on Minnesota he was an afterthought to Dalvin Cook for the first four games, then stuck in an unequal time-share with Latavius Murray for the rest of the season.  

 

But now McKinnon is the primary back in what has proven to be one of the most successful running systems in the entire NFL.  So his situation is completely different.

 

Also baked into my prediction is that the league's defensive coordinators will watch the tape of the Ram's playoff loss to Atlanta and adjust accordingly.  Atlanta assigned a fast linebacker to shadow Gurley all over the field, and they shut Gurley down and unlocked the key to beating McVay's group.  Copycat league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

ajs723--

 

I detect that you are a stat-head.  That is not necessarily a bad thing.  But focusing overly on historical stats can prevent the fantasy player from recognizing when a player has experienced a dramatic change in circumstances.

 

You seem to be projecting McKinnon to roughly equal his production from last season.  But on Minnesota he was an afterthought to Dalvin Cook for the first four games, then stuck in an unequal time-share with Latavius Murray for the rest of the season.  

 

But now McKinnon is the primary back in what has proven to be one of the most successful running systems in the entire NFL.  So his situation is completely different.

 

Also baked into my prediction is that the league's defensive coordinators will watch the tape of the Ram's playoff loss to Atlanta and adjust accordingly.  Atlanta assigned a fast linebacker to shadow Gurley all over the field, and they shut Gurley down and unlocked the key to beating McVay's group.  Copycat league.

How do you figure the 49rs are one of the “most successful” running systems in the NFL?

 

Hyde wasn’t very good last year. Hyde dropped from averaging 4.6 to 3.9 last year under the new system.

 

It is probably true the offense better suits McKinnon, but saying he’ll be better than the #1 running back last year is beyond bold.

 

Gurley may very well drop, but I don’t see him falling out of the top5.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

How do you figure the 49rs are one of the “most successful” running systems in the NFL?

 

Hyde wasn’t very good last year. Hyde dropped from averaging 4.6 to 3.9 last year under the new system.

 

It is probably true the offense better suits McKinnon, but saying he’ll be better than the #1 running back last year is beyond bold.

 

Gurley may very well drop, but I don’t see him falling out of the top5.

 

 

Kyle Shanahan's offensive system has produced elite running back numbers most everywhere he has been.  Arian Foster with the Texans.  Devonta Freeman with Atlanta.  Etc.  I really don't think Hyde's skillset fit what they wanted there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Kyle Shanahan's offensive system has produced elite running back numbers most everywhere he has been.  Arian Foster with the Texans.  Devonta Freeman with Atlanta.  Etc.  I really don't think Hyde's skillset fit what they wanted there.

Foster really was elite.  Freeman benefited from the system, but he wasn’t elite.   McKinnon hasn’t show himself to be elite.  I agree the situation is better for him, but I doubt he can stay healthy/productive for an entire season as a 3 down back.

 

You might be right about McKinnon, but I’m going for a safer pick.  McKinnon is similar to Mixon in risk.  I like them both in the 4th, but it looks like they’ll be taken earlier.

 

This discussion (and looking at stats) is making me interested in Nick Chubb as a value pick.  Currently he’s 10 round plus...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

ajs723--

 

I detect that you are a stat-head.  That is not necessarily a bad thing.  But focusing overly on historical stats can prevent the fantasy player from recognizing when a player has experienced a dramatic change in circumstances.

 

You seem to be projecting McKinnon to roughly equal his production from last season.  But on Minnesota he was an afterthought to Dalvin Cook for the first four games, then stuck in an unequal time-share with Latavius Murray for the rest of the season.  

 

But now McKinnon is the primary back in what has proven to be one of the most successful running systems in the entire NFL.  So his situation is completely different.

 

Also baked into my prediction is that the league's defensive coordinators will watch the tape of the Ram's playoff loss to Atlanta and adjust accordingly.  Atlanta assigned a fast linebacker to shadow Gurley all over the field, and they shut Gurley down and unlocked the key to beating McVay's group.  Copycat league.

My predictions are based on how I think McKinnon will preform in San Francisco. Honestly, if those numbers mirror his 2017 output, it's just a funny coincidence. 

 

There are several reasons I'm a little lower than some I'm McKinnon. For one, I simply don't think he has the skill set of a elite NFL running back. I think he's very good as a part time back, but I can't see giving him 20+ carries per game and expecting good results. I think the Niners know this too. I expect a lot more of Breida than you probably do (and maybe even some Joe Williams). Finally, I don't know if this team is going to have a top tier rushing attack in 2018. I think the offense will be pretty good, but I think they may open it up and throw a lot more.

 

Again, I think he'll be a good RB2, but I'd be extremely surprised if he's in the conversation of elite backs at the end of the year. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ajs723--

 

You seem to believe that McKinnon is mostly a 3rd down back because that is what he has always been.  Kyle Shanahan has telegraphed, through contract terms and lack of adding other running backs, that he believes McKinnon can be much more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

ajs723--

 

You seem to believe that McKinnon is mostly a 3rd down back because that is what he has always been.  Kyle Shanahan has telegraphed, through contract terms and lack of adding other running backs, that he believes McKinnon can be much more.

Not a 3rd down back. More like the leader of a committee. I think if you give McKinnon an Arian Foster workload, he'll give you 3.7 YPC. Just my opinion. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Not a 3rd down back. More like the leader of a committee. I think if you give McKinnon an Arian Foster workload, he'll give you 3.7 YPC. Just my opinion. 

Agreed.  I think Breida will be more involved than people realize, similar to a Freeman/Coleman situation that Shanny had in Atlanta.  Breida showed pretty well last season when given opportunity. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

ajs723--

 

You seem to believe that McKinnon is mostly a 3rd down back because that is what he has always been.  Kyle Shanahan has telegraphed, through contract terms and lack of adding other running backs, that he believes McKinnon can be much more.

 

I don't think it matters what his intentions are if McKinnon can't handle the workload.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last Years:

Mariotta is the QB1 this year

Eli gets benched before the year ends

Trubisky has a worse career than Gabbert 

RB:

Fournette wins rushing title

Gio is the top fantasy RB in cincy

Gurley is a top 2 back

Ajayi is this year's gurley

WR:

Moncrief leads all WRS in TDS

Cooks is a top 5 WR

Parker is the highest scoring fantasy player in Miami  (excluding QB/DST)

Crowder leads the NFL in catches

Gordon gets reinstated ends up in atlanta plats a few good games just to get everyones hopes up and then gets suspended again.

TE:

Gronk plays 16 and balls out

OJ Howard isn't a top 36 TE

Austin Hooper becomes a top 6 TE

 

Last year I was right on a few, close on others and flat out wrong on a lot so lets try this again:

 

QB: Mahomes is the top fantasy QB on his rookie contract

Jimmy G is a top 5 QB

Big Ben falls off the cliff and isn't a top 20 fqntasy QB

RB: Fournette is a top 3 back in standard

3 Rookie RBs end up it in the top 12 for their position (Barkley, Guice and Jones)

Ballage becomes the starting RB in Miami

Zeke puts up 2500 yards from scrimmage, I'll explain what little reasoning I have for this one. He averages 100 rushing per game, line is slightly better than last year and the offense has drastically worse skill position players than last year. This is a situation whoch could resemble the 09 Titans to a tee, a team that is competitive but has one method of offense and has to use it to win games. I think hos way to 2500 would be about 1800 rushing and 700 receiving.

WR: Watkins is the top pass catcher in KC, they paid him 16 million for a reason

Gordon is a top 3 WR

Corey Davis is a high end WR2 (13-16 range)

TE: Trey Burton joins the elite tier of TEs

Rudolph catches double digit TDs

Ed Dickson becomes usable by the end of the season.

Hopefully some of these happen but I understand they probably won't.

 

Edited by Ddam2013

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tarik Cohen will finish top 13 in PPR return yards score. 

 

Jimmy G will finish top 7 at QB 

 

Saquon gets hurt from overuse. 

 

Mexico wins the world cup. 

 

Royce finishes top 12 at RB in PPR. 

 

Trey Burton finishes top 7 at TE. 

 

Phillip Rivers once again is the best value at QB per ADP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Gridiron Assassin said:

Tarik Cohen will finish top 13 in PPR return yards score. 

 

Jimmy G will finish top 7 at QB 

 

Saquon gets hurt from overuse. 

 

Mexico wins the world cup. 

 

Royce finishes top 12 at RB in PPR. 

 

Trey Burton finishes top 7 at TE. 

 

Phillip Rivers once again is the best value at QB per ADP

I like these.  Phillip Rivers being great value shouldn't be in the bold call thread, because I think everybody knows he's great value but for some reason is always disrespected when draft time comes along.  The fact that you can get him essentially for free even more validates the "no QB early" strategy.  Just got to pluck him before others in your league start drafting backups.

 

I'm going to look to own Burton wherever I can.

 

Hard to know with the rookie RBs, but I'm sure one of Royce, Guice, or Ronald Jones is going to pay dividends.  Just not sure which one right now...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A healthy yet ineffective Jordy Nelson finishes outside the top 75 WR in ppr scoring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phillip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, and Keenan Allen all finish top 5 at their respective positions and the Chargers finish with a top 3 offensive unit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Ddam2013 said:

Last Years:

Mariotta is the QB1 this year

Eli gets benched before the year ends

Trubisky has a worse career than Gabbert 

RB:

Fournette wins rushing title

Gio is the top fantasy RB in cincy

Gurley is a top 2 back

Ajayi is this year's gurley

WR:

Moncrief leads all WRS in TDS

Cooks is a top 5 WR

Parker is the highest scoring fantasy player in Miami  (excluding QB/DST)

Crowder leads the NFL in catches

Gordon gets reinstated ends up in atlanta plats a few good games just to get everyones hopes up and then gets suspended again.

TE:

Gronk plays 16 and balls out

OJ Howard isn't a top 36 TE

Austin Hooper becomes a top 6 TE

 

Last year I was right on a few, close on others and flat out wrong on a lot so lets try this again:

 

QB: Mahomes is the top fantasy QB on his rookie contract

Jimmy G is a top 5 QB

Big Ben falls off the cliff and isn't a top 20 fqntasy QB

RB: Fournette is a top 3 back in standard

3 Rookie RBs end up it in the top 12 for their position (Barkley, Guice and Jones)

Ballage becomes the starting RB in Miami

Zeke puts up 2500 yards from scrimmage, I'll explain what little reasoning I have for this one. He averages 100 rushing per game, line is slightly better than last year and the offense has drastically worse skill position players than last year. This is a situation whoch could resemble the 09 Titans to a tee, a team that is competitive but has one method of offense and has to use it to win games. I think hos way to 2500 would be about 1800 rushing and 700 receiving.

WR: Watkins is the top pass catcher in KC, they paid him 16 million for a reason

Gordon is a top 3 WR

Corey Davis is a high end WR2 (13-16 range)

TE: Trey Burton joins the elite tier of TEs

Rudolph catches double digit TDs

Ed Dickson becomes usable by the end of the season.

Hopefully some of these happen but I understand they probably won't.

 

 

Alot of these just aren't very bold tbh.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Alot of these just aren't very bold tbh.

Cool thanks for your opinion. 

/s

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, The Gridiron Assassin said:

Tarik Cohen will finish top 13 in PPR return yards score. 

 

Jimmy G will finish top 7 at QB 

 

Saquon gets hurt from overuse. 

 

Mexico wins the world cup. 

 

Royce finishes top 12 at RB in PPR. 

 

Trey Burton finishes top 7 at TE. 

 

Phillip Rivers once again is the best value at QB per ADP

 

When was Rivers ever the best QB value at ADP? Certainly not last year -- that was Alex Smith.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the first time in three years, more than half of Axe Elf's draft targets make it through the year healthy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

For the first time in three years, more than half of Axe Elf's draft targets make it through the year healthy.

We seem to like way too many of the same guys this year. Get your negative energy the hell away from my dudes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

We seem to like way too many of the same guys this year. Get your negative energy the hell away from my dudes. 

 

A completely understandable concern.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

For the first time in three years, more than half of Axe Elf's draft targets make it through the year healthy.

Yeah, that's what your problem has been..

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.