vikingapocalypse

Nick Chubb 2018 Outlook

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Nick Chubb

5'11/227

Pick 2.03 to the Cleveland Browns

488161126_1462_GT_at_UGA-777x437.jpg

 

40 Yard Dash
4.52
Bench Press
29
Vertical Jump
38.5
Broad Jump
128.0
3 Cone Drill
7.09
20 Yd Shuttle
4.25


Great career at Georgia. Explosive before a gruesome knee injury in 15 but has come back, hasnt missed a down and has gotten stronger each year since. Smashed the combine to a 98th percentile sparq at 5-11/227. Wasn't asked to catch much at georgia but caught 18 for 213 his first year and showed soft hands before having the injury, giving way to michel and eventually swift in passing situations. 

 

I love chubb and i own him in a devy dynasty league, and im trying to be optimistic about the situation:

 

Pros: No established rb, hydes contract has an out next year, elite athlete - weaker competition, high draft capital, decent oline - hopefully a young team on the rise

 

Cons: Crowded backfield. Short term outlook is RBBC. Even if hyde leaves, duke will probably be around for passing downs. Potentially disastrous team in catch up mode if history has shown us anything

 

Dynasty outlook looks pretty decent.

Redraft - maybe not so much. 

Thoughts?

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I actually like Chubb a lot. I don't think he can be a full time feature back though. But he will be very good in the right system. I'm just not sure Cleveland is the right fit. We'll see.

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Still trying to figure out how a 1-31 team takes a luxury RB pick early in the second round.

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5 minutes ago, petekrum said:

Still trying to figure out how a 1-31 team takes a luxury RB pick early in the second round.

 

Its the Browns 

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7 hours ago, vikingapocalypse said:

"... I love Chubb and I own him in a devy dynasty league, and I'm trying to be optimistic about the situation: ... Dynasty outlook looks pretty decent. Redraft - maybe not so much. Thoughts?"

 

The silence is deafening, but in redraft he should be a great value or you don't take him. Mayfield has to get up to speed & Hyde wear down some or a lot. Went pretty high and Hyde isn't owed anything, so there could be a competition. Expectations have to be minimal with a rookie QB. Meaning, down 21 pts they're still running their offense or should be. 

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25 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

The silence is deafening, but in redraft he should be a great value or you don't take him. Mayfield has to get up to speed & Hyde wear down some or a lot. Went pretty high and Hyde isn't owed anything, so there could be a competition. Expectations have to be minimal with a rookie QB. Meaning, down 21 pts they're still running their offense or should be. 

 

The location is starting to grow on me a bit. Look no further then my vikes last year, who gave a fairly similar contract to Lat murray that cleveland gave to hyde - only to draft a high second round rookie in cook and start him. Murray was dealing with some ankle issues, so the comparison has its flaws - but i see no reason for any loyalty to hyde in this situation. With a potential out next year, theyll probably want to see what chubb can give them. And i fully believe chubb is the superior athlete.

Ive always thought the threat of a mobile qb like tyrod helps the run game, or a rookie qb adapting to the game also tend to lead to more running. Decent oline to. 

My initial reaction was rough, i mean - it is cleveland after all. But im starting to get hopeful in a dynasty situation. Think in redraft like you said - hell either end up a great value as a later pick, or you dont pick him if its too pricey.

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8 hours ago, vikingapocalypse said:

love chubb and i own him in a devy dynasty league, and im trying to be optimistic about the situation:

 

Thoughts?

 

I like Chubb as well... but I hope your your dynasty league has a taxi squad so Chubb doesn’t take up a roster spot.

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Posted (edited)

Hyde going to have 10 carries and 2 receptions per game. 

 

Chubb will have 10 carries per game. 

 

Duke Johnson will have 4-5 receptions per game and 1 carry per game. 

 

All will be a crap shoot for a TD. 

 

Unless you get points for backfield frustration and terrible coaching I'd pass on anything in this backfield unless you have dynasty patience for coaches being eventually fired to enjoy a quality offense. 

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares
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4 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

I like Chubb as well... but I hope your your dynasty league has a taxi squad so Chubb doesn’t take up a roster spot.

 

Only while they're in college. So he'll be burning a hole in my roster. But i have hopes he could at least be a filler in the interim. Plus, hyde hasnt really been the healthiest guy. Its definatley a situation that will require some patience, but such is the case with many dynasty players(corey davis, derrick henry, mixon, doctson etc)

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2 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

 

Only while they're in college. So he'll be burning a hole in my roster. But i have hopes he could at least be a filler in the interim. Plus, hyde hasnt really been the healthiest guy. Its definatley a situation that will require some patience, but such is the case with many dynasty players(corey davis, derrick henry, mixon, doctson etc)

 

You never know. If he shines he could become the primary back. I'm not saying he's Alvin Kamara but I could see him getting that type of workload. 

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Just now, South Carolina said:

 

You never know. If he shines he could become the primary back. I'm not saying he's Alvin Kamara but I could see him getting that type of workload. 

 

Definatley. Trying not to be too bias and accept the negatives in the situation, but hes the more talented rb imo and this is the hope. Not completely out of the realm of possibility that he gets a primary workload early, especially given pedigree and ability.

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4 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

 

Definatley. Trying not to be too bias and accept the negatives in the situation, but hes the more talented rb imo and this is the hope. Not completely out of the realm of possibility that he gets a primary workload early, especially given pedigree and ability.

 

Agree 100%. There's no doubt he can play. My biggest fear is that he gets swallowed up by the Browns system. There's just too much going on and too many bodies. There's only one ball.

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10 hours ago, lolcopter said:

Hard pass on this entire backfield

 

Too much talent in that backfield, you won't be able to predict who will get you points week to week

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, petekrum said:

Still trying to figure out how a 1-31 team takes a luxury RB pick early in the second round.

 

The only rationale  I can think of that's even plausible is that the Browns plan on running the ball ALOT, even more than the Saints and Titans did last season.

Edited by dashoe

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9 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

The only rationale  I can think of that's even plausible is that the Browns plan on running the ball ALOT, even more than the Saints and Titans did last season.

 

Which of course lines up perfectly with them giving a slot WR more money than their three RBs combined...

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42 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Which of course lines up perfectly with them giving a slot WR more money than their three RBs combined...

 

How can an organization be so inept? No matter the management  it's the same thing every year. Why are Browns fans not going crazy?  All I heard was Dorsey this, Dorsey that. He's an idiot.

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On 4/28/2018 at 10:44 AM, South Carolina said:

 

How can an organization be so inept? No matter the management  it's the same thing every year. Why are Browns fans not going crazy?  All I heard was Dorsey this, Dorsey that. He's an idiot.

 

Is it possible they view Chubb as the generational RB he could have been pre-injury? Then it would maybe make sense to draft him in round 2 despite having other needs. Also I think they can get out of the Hyde contract next year without too much issue. And maybe they wind up trading Duke if Chubb can catch passes? 

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Just now, Wild Thing said:

 

Is it possible they view Chubb as the generational RB he could have been pre-injury? Then it would maybe make sense to draft him in round 2 despite having other needs. Also I think they can get out of the Hyde contract next year without too much issue. And maybe they wind up trading Duke if Chubb can catch passes? 

 

Surely possible. I like Chubb, I'm just not excited about the other picks.

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On April 28, 2018 at 6:32 AM, petekrum said:

Still trying to figure out how a 1-31 team takes a luxury RB pick early in the second round.

I'm picturing the snake that eats itself.

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Posted (edited)
Quote

When asked about Barkley by ESPN Cleveland’s Tony Grossi on the 100 Years Pod Podcast, Dorsey answered why he prefers a running back by committee, versus a featured back.

“I believe in a running back committee, always have been, i’ve always been taught that way. You can’t have enough good running backs. Football in the National Football League is a very physical game and you can have two or three really good running backs, and you have the teaching/coaching staff we have, they’re going to put together a gameplan that’s going to fit everybody and that’s all you can ask for.”

 

I completely missed this interview in March but now the pick makes sense

Edited by dashoe
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I am avoiding the backfield for fantasy purposes :mellow:

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On 4/28/2018 at 4:32 AM, petekrum said:

Still trying to figure out how a 1-31 team takes a luxury RB pick early in the second round.

 

Because they think he's potentially the best RB in the draft?  And Hyde is 26/27 and is essentially on a one year deal? 

 

This roster doesn't have the holes that you'd expect from a 1-31 record.

 

I have A LOT of issues with what Cleveland has done this offseason.  This pick isn't one of them. 

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8 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

Because they think he's potentially the best RB in the draft?  And Hyde is 26/27 and is essentially on a one year deal? 

 

This roster doesn't have the holes that you'd expect from a 1-31 record.

 

I have A LOT of issues with what Cleveland has done this offseason.  This pick isn't one of them. 

 

Hes nowhere near the best RB in the class, but it is the Browns who thought Mayfield was the best QB so the stupidity bar is set pretty high.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/27/2018 at 11:35 PM, vikingapocalypse said:

Dynasty outlook looks pretty decent.

Redraft - maybe not so much. 

Thoughts?

 

If I was only looking at the roster I would say dynasty outlook is "pretty decent", at least.

 

There's more than just the roster tho.  I see a few risks:

1) These are the Browns.  As tired as the trope is, it is true.  There is a gravitational field around Lake Erie that sucks every franchise into hell.

2) If Mayfield busts, the org could be spinning its wheels for another 4-5 years.  It just hurts a RB's upside if the offense can't move the ball and score points.  IMO Mayfield is 50/50 to succeed.   

3) Hopefully Jackson and Williams are fired sooner rather than later, but it'll be another transition to a new coach at some point.  Should ultimately help Chubb but just more risk.

 

I think Chubb is good enough to overcome these things, and I think the Browns will start to be at least somewhat competitive in the next few years.  I just personally can't try to rationalize that Cleveland is a good spot for anybody.

Edited by Lord_Varys

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