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Nick Chubb 2018 Outlook

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11 hours ago, Hero202 said:

 

I'll definitely remember that for my 2022 fantasy draft analysis.

 

I was thinking about next year's Madden. You seem to be more optimistic than me, which is cool.

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Chubb can make guys miss and has the long speed. The volume is great, but the long runs are coming too. So much for those wondering why crazy Hyde owners were cuffing Chubb. 

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2 hours ago, itschief33 said:

 

Thanks for posting this.

 

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More concerned about Chubb this week against ATL than last against KC. A few reasons:

 

* D. Johnson emergence. Also coachspeak around getting him the ball. ATL could get up and it's throw to Duke time.

 

* CLE suddenly seems riddled with injuries in the secondary and offensive line. Helps M. Ryan/hurts Chubb.

 

* ATL quietly getting a little healthier on D.

 

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1 hour ago, kyoun1e said:

More concerned about Chubb this week against ATL than last against KC. A few reasons:

 

* D. Johnson emergence. Also coachspeak around getting him the ball. ATL could get up and it's throw to Duke time.

 

* CLE suddenly seems riddled with injuries in the secondary and offensive line. Helps M. Ryan/hurts Chubb.

 

* ATL quietly getting a little healthier on D.

 

 

 

Don’t overthink. Chubb will get his. Volume volume volume. I don’t see any reason to bench Chubb this week.

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http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/83754/555/week-10-rankings

 

The Browns traded Carlos Hyde with an eye toward featuring Nick Chubb. They have followed through on the plan. Chubb has posted touch counts of 18, 20 and 23 in his first three games as lead back. His biggest workload came in a Week 9 Chiefs contest that wasn’t particularly competitive, meaning he is not going to be mothballed at the first sign of negative game script. It’s also encouraging that Chubb’s 23-touch day came in Freddie Kitchens’ debut as offensive coordinator and alongside a resurgent Duke Johnson.

 

As was the case with the Chiefs last week, there’s a risk things get out of hand against the Falcons, but Atlanta’s defense should be banged up enough to keep the Browns reasonably close in what could be a high-scoring affair. Allowing 4.84 yards per carry, the Falcons are also just one of five teams to surrender 10 rushing scores. They have done so in only eight games. Featured and growing for what figures be an improving offense, Chubb will be in the RB1 mix from here on out.

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3 minutes ago, WaiverLooter said:

For trade value, what is a WR you would target? Kupp, Woods level? or higher?

It's stupid, but you're not gonna get equal value out of chubb if your league is anything like mine. Majority of teams in my league see a dude with 'CLE' next to his name and they won't budge.

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4 minutes ago, WaiverLooter said:

For trade value, what is a WR you would target? Kupp, Woods level? or higher?

 

In STD leagues Chubb has to be considered at the low-end RB1 level in the top 10-15 at his position. I'd say similarly for PPR but closer to the 12-18 range. I still think there's a chance we see more explosive plays from Chubb though and he has nowhere to go but up with his passing game usage so his upside is pretty high all things considered. RBs are at a premium in my league so I would probably need a Kenan Allen type before considering moving Chubb, but that all depends on your team and your trade partner.

 

Bottom line, Chubb is a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 in virtually all leagues, has a pretty good schedule coming up, and has mouthwatering upside due to his big play potential and workload. A lot to like.

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27 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

 

In STD leagues Chubb has to be considered at the low-end RB1 level in the top 10-15 at his position. I'd say similarly for PPR but closer to the 12-18 range. I still think there's a chance we see more explosive plays from Chubb though and he has nowhere to go but up with his passing game usage so his upside is pretty high all things considered. RBs are at a premium in my league so I would probably need a Kenan Allen type before considering moving Chubb, but that all depends on your team and your trade partner.

 

Bottom line, Chubb is a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 in virtually all leagues, has a pretty good schedule coming up, and has mouthwatering upside due to his big play potential and workload. A lot to like.

 

It seems clear to me though that Duke will get 90% of the passes and Chubb 10%. Thus, Chubbs value in a ppr league is held down by this.  Obviously guys like a Gurley, DJ, Hunt, and Conner all do both very well with quantity as well which makes them GREAT.  Chubb won’t be great unless he does both. Rather, good to very good. 

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6 minutes ago, TennisMenace said:

 

It seems clear to me though that Duke will get 90% of the passes and Chubb 10%. Thus, Chubbs value in a ppr league is held down by this.  Obviously guys like a Gurley, DJ, Hunt, and Conner all do both very well with quantity as well which makes them GREAT.  Chubb won’t be great unless he does both. Rather, good to very good. 

 

That's fair and likely true, but I'll take a "good to very good" guy I picked up for free off the WW. As it is, he's basically a middle ground RB2 at worst.

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This situation looks identical to White and Michel, I have both Michel and Chubb and they're stat lines are almost the same, (and ya I know the Browns offense is not on the same level as the Patriots)

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Chubb at one point considered to be better than gurley.... we haven't seen his best yet... and he's been a rb2/1 since starting...

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4 minutes ago, hard1 said:

Chubb at one point considered to be better than gurley.... we haven't seen his best yet... and he's been a rb2/1 since starting...

 

Agree. He's got all the makings of a great NFL RB. Imagine what he would do on a better team?

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7 minutes ago, jtbgator said:

 

Agree. He's got all the makings of a great NFL RB. Imagine what he would do on a better team?

They are getting better and will be...

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37 minutes ago, hard1 said:

Chubb at one point considered to be better than gurley.... we haven't seen his best yet... and he's been a rb2/1 since starting...

Remember when everyone thought Gurley was terrible after his 2nd season in the NFL? It's crazy what a competent coach can do for a team and if the Browns find their version of McVay next year we could be looking at a top 5 fantasy pick in 2020.

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5 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Remember when everyone thought Gurley was terrible after his 2nd season in the NFL? It's crazy what a competent coach can do for a team and if the Browns find their version of McVay next year we could be looking at a top 5 fantasy pick in 2020.

 

How cool would it be if Arians took the job

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Arians lobbied for it before and they went another direction cause the browns... hopefully this new regime... is smarter

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Highest ranked RB in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus with a grade of 88.8.

 

NICK CHUBB IS RISING ABOVE POOR RUN-BLOCKING

Among the 44 running backs with at least 25 carries on which they’ve been contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage, Browns’ Nick Chubb ranks first in yards per carry (2.5) on such runs. He also leads the same group of backs in yards after contact per carry on such runs at 4.20.

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11 hours ago, TennisMenace said:

 

It seems clear to me though that Duke will get 90% of the passes and Chubb 10%. Thus, Chubbs value in a ppr league is held down by this.  Obviously guys like a Gurley, DJ, Hunt, and Conner all do both very well with quantity as well which makes them GREAT.  Chubb won’t be great unless he does both. Rather, good to very good. 

 

You have to assume Duke is catching passes very often when he is in the game, but I don't see why Chubb cannot be used in the passing game.  I don't think he'll get anywhere near Duke's passing game volume, but if the staff plans on making Chubb the guy you'd hope they are keen enough to make him at least a semblance of a threat in the passing game.  I don't know how his pass protection or route running is though so this could all be null and void if they don't feel he's capable/ready.

 

Regardless, while Duke is a beast in the passing game, I hope they're able to incorporate Chubb in more ways than as a ground runner if he's gonna be the man there.

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Chubb was never going to catch many passes. They weren't even involving the RBs in the pass game until last week with the coaching changes. Chubb will get about 20 touches a week and the GL work. Which is a rock solid RB2. Maybe next season he develops a wider range of skills and becomes an RB1.

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12 hours ago, TennisMenace said:

 

It seems clear to me though that Duke will get 90% of the passes and Chubb 10%. Thus, Chubbs value in a ppr league is held down by this.  Obviously guys like a Gurley, DJ, Hunt, and Conner all do both very well with quantity as well which makes them GREAT.  Chubb won’t be great unless he does both. Rather, good to very good. 

I'm not sure why you think Duke will get 90% of the passes and Chubb only 10% when that hasn't been the case all year. Duke has averaged right around 3 catches per game while Chubb/Hyde have averaged about 1 catch per game. So admittedly Chubb hasn't been utilized in the passing game all that much (to this point) but you're overstating Duke's role and understating Chubb's. That comes out to a 25% catch share for Chubb per game for Browns RBs. On top of that, since Chubb became the starter Duke has averaged around 5 targets per game while Chubb has averaged 2. So Chubb has roughly 25% of the catches and roughly 29% of the targets for Browns RBs. 

 

Overall I agree that Chubb needs to be more involved in the passing game to reach that next tier of fantasy production.

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7 hours ago, munde53 said:

I'm not sure why you think Duke will get 90% of the passes and Chubb only 10% when that hasn't been the case all year. Duke has averaged right around 3 catches per game while Chubb/Hyde have averaged about 1 catch per game. So admittedly Chubb hasn't been utilized in the passing game all that much (to this point) but you're overstating Duke's role and understating Chubb's. That comes out to a 25% catch share for Chubb per game for Browns RBs. On top of that, since Chubb became the starter Duke has averaged around 5 targets per game while Chubb has averaged 2. So Chubb has roughly 25% of the catches and roughly 29% of the targets for Browns RBs. 

 

Overall I agree that Chubb needs to be more involved in the passing game to reach that next tier of fantasy production.

 

I actually think last week under a new OC will be more what we will see from here on out.

Duke-9 targets

chubb-1 target

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