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Derrius Guice 2018 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Why would he get 75 carries after they drafted Guice?

 

It’s just a number. A July projection. But I don’t see 75 carries as lofty, if mid-60s is a floor based on two years for CT. Guice is a bull, and he’s a great complement for CThompson, and while it’s true we can see Thompson’s carries slide a little, a downturn in carries is mitigated by Guice’s need to be NFL-level durable. Remember last season, Guice’s bruised knee (Mississippi State game), and how he continued to play in the subsequent weeks but at a reduced capacity / reduced efficiency? Who will fill in when Guice is dinged up from his high usage? Perine, the guy with 24 red zone carries and one TD? My vote is on CThompson. Cohen had 140 touches last season, and I see CThompson (this coming season) just behind him at 125, yet considerably behind him in ADP. Just the two cents from my notebook, take it for what you will.

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13 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Jersey he’s in looks like it says “LSU” to me. Meanwhile another back on the team had a 50%+ time share on this team last year. 

 

Im not saying whether or not or how much CT eats into Guices workload. But being dismissive of CTs talent and ignoring how he’s been used by this team recently isn’t an accurate portrayal of the situation. CT is absolutely someone who could steal numerous snaps from Guice early in his career and it should surprise no one if it does indeed happen.

 

7 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

The argument posted in previous pages, which I agree with, is that Thompson saw such a high snap count because the other RBs were so pedestrian.

 

It's more or less just this for me, at least in terms of that post. I'm not saying by that I think CT will see playing time, but someone willfully ignoring the possibility I'm not on board with. The threat is definitely there. If he did a 50/50, I don't think we should necessarily be that surprised.

 

And I will say, in terms of that comparative pedestrian performance, CT didn't just play okay. 16 game pace was about 102 Carries, 470 Yards (4.6 Per), 62 Rec, 816 Yards, 13.1 Yards Per Reception, 9.6 Total TDs. That includes his 10th, injury game in which he was obviously removed early. But those numbers, particularly that 13.1 Yards per Reception, is not much to sneeze at. And I mean, 4.6 YPC while seeing an expanded role. 

 

And if you prorated that into fantasy points, that's 186.2 Points, or RB9 Standard. 217.2 Points, passing Fournette for RB8 in 1/2 Point PPR. 248.2 Points, staying at RB8 in PPR. 

 

So maybe Guice is going to see 70% of snaps. But if Chris Thompson played the last 6 games like he played the first 10, and finished as an RB1 last year, no one thinks this is a crazy argument at all.

 

And this isn't a 4 or 5 game Deshaun Watson sample, this is a full 10 games. Not unreasonable to think he was going to be a top 12 RB if he didn't get hurt. 

 

So I will say ultimately I do think CT is a greater risk than the masses think. But my reasons for preferring other RBs to Guice doesn't have much to do with CT. And I don't have Guice ranked poorly by any means. 

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35 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

It's more or less just this for me, at least in terms of that post. I'm not saying by that I think CT will see playing time, but someone willfully ignoring the possibility I'm not on board with. The threat is definitely there. If he did a 50/50, I don't think we should necessarily be that surprised.

 

And I will say, in terms of that comparative pedestrian performance, CT didn't just play okay. 16 game pace was about 102 Carries, 470 Yards (4.6 Per), 62 Rec, 816 Yards, 13.1 Yards Per Reception, 9.6 Total TDs. That includes his 10th, injury game in which he was obviously removed early. But those numbers, particularly that 13.1 Yards per Reception, is not much to sneeze at. And I mean, 4.6 YPC while seeing an expanded role. 

 

And if you prorated that into fantasy points, that's 186.2 Points, or RB9 Standard. 217.2 Points, passing Fournette for RB8 in 1/2 Point PPR. 248.2 Points, staying at RB8 in PPR. 

 

So maybe Guice is going to see 70% of snaps. But if Chris Thompson played the last 6 games like he played the first 10, and finished as an RB1 last year, no one thinks this is a crazy argument at all.

 

And this isn't a 4 or 5 game Deshaun Watson sample, this is a full 10 games. Not unreasonable to think he was going to be a top 12 RB if he didn't get hurt. 

 

So I will say ultimately I do think CT is a greater risk than the masses think. But my reasons for preferring other RBs to Guice doesn't have much to do with CT. And I don't have Guice ranked poorly by any means. 

You should do a TL:DR for pretty much every post 

:D:ph34r:

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

You should do a TL:DR for pretty much every post 

:D:ph34r:

 

If you want the good ya gotta do the grind. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

If you want the good ya gotta do the grind. 

 

Nah.    Work smarter not longer.

 

i think Perine is being completely forgotten about too.   Are we really dismissing him after a rookie season he started to show promise late? 

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Thompson is a good RB and if he is healthy to start the season he will likely fall back into a similar role as he did last year.  He plays all 16 games he will definitely be worth his ADP in PPR.  As for standard leagues slight less but will be flexible during bye weeks.

 

Now looking at things for this year, Guice will be handling early down work and likely be worked into the passing game over time. Thompson didn't have a back like Guice last year.  Guice may even prove to be a better receiving talent than they think - they just never passed to him a lot in college. Check-down Smith will pass to the RBs on first or second down if that is where the play goes.  If Guice does well his touches and workload could continue to go up as the season goes on.

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7 hours ago, Big Nate said:

Thompson is a good RB and if he is healthy to start the season he will likely fall back into a similar role as he did last year.  He plays all 16 games he will definitely be worth his ADP in PPR.  As for standard leagues slight less but will be flexible during bye weeks.

 

Now looking at things for this year, Guice will be handling early down work and likely be worked into the passing game over time. Thompson didn't have a back like Guice last year.  Guice may even prove to be a better receiving talent than they think - they just never passed to him a lot in college. Check-down Smith will pass to the RBs on first or second down if that is where the play goes.  If Guice does well his touches and workload could continue to go up as the season goes on.

I like this post. People always pigeonhole Guice as a straight 2 down back. I think you made a good point here that his role in the passing game is probably going to be small in the beginning especially with a great option like Thompson available in the short term but over time we could see that role increase and he could be successful as a 3 down back down the line. Those were pretty much going to be my thoughts. Guice was undervalued in this draft and went too late. He is a very good runner and his 2017 tape didn't reflect who he could really be. in 2016 when I was evaluating Guice and Barkley I had them right next to each other. *HOT TAEK ALERT* I truly do believe Guice can be a better RUNNER than Barkley. 

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8 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

So underrated catching the rock.

 

SO underrated. Looks smooth doing it too.

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11 hours ago, Mr2Saint said:

 

SO underrated. Looks smooth doing it too.

 

Still not in Thompson's league.

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26 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Still not in Thompson's league.

He doesn't need to be. He just needs to be good enough at doing it that he gets passes thrown his way on 1st and 2nd down once in a while. It's not like QB's only throw to their rb on 3rd down. Beside's, if he's good enough at it, there's a chance that he stays in the game when they're using their hurry up offense.

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6 minutes ago, wonderbread said:

He doesn't need to be. He just needs to be good enough at doing it that he gets passes thrown his way on 1st and 2nd down once in a while. It's not like QB's only throw to their rb on 3rd down. Beside's, if he's good enough at it, there's a chance that he stays in the game when they're using their hurry up offense.

 

Unlikely. Thompson is a better runner than Guice is a receiver. The hope for Guice owners is that Thompson is made of glass. 

 

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5 minutes ago, wonderbread said:

He doesn't need to be. He just needs to be good enough at doing it that he gets passes thrown his way on 1st and 2nd down once in a while. It's not like QB's only throw to their rb on 3rd down. Beside's, if he's good enough at it, there's a chance that he stays in the game when they're using their hurry up offense.

People seem to miss this factoid a lot on RW.   A good receiving COP doesn’t mean the starter won’t see a fair share of targets on early downs and audibles.   You don’t tip your hand by bringing in a COP everytime there’s a pass play coming.    

 

1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

Unlikely. Thompson is a better runner than Guice is a receiver. The hope for Guice owners is that Thompson is made of glass. 

 

the tape suggests just the opposite. 

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

People seem to miss this factoid a lot on RW.   A good receiving COP doesn’t mean the starter won’t see a fair share of targets on early downs and audibles.   You don’t tip your hand by bringing in a COP everytime there’s a pass play coming.    

 

the tape suggests just the opposite. 

 

Not the NFL tape.

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I think Guice has a good shot for 1000 yards, 10 TDs and 30 catches, which would make him a solid RB2 this season. 

 

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Just now, joshua18 said:

 

Not the NFL tape.

 

Well it’s a good thing teams watch college tape too.   Sometimes they even draft players because of said tape.    You’re mistaken if you think Guice can’t catch the ball well.   CT will need an injury or fumbilitis to strike to have much value outside of the occasional big play 

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

 

Well it’s a good thing teams watch college tape too.   Sometimes they even draft players because of said tape.    You’re mistaken if you think Guice can’t catch the ball well.   CT will need an injury or fumbilitis to strike to have much value outside of the occasional big play 

 

So how do you get around CTs great 2017 in your head? And this is a real question. Because every Guice homer seems to be completely dismissing the impressive aspects of CTs 2017. 

 

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

So how do you get around CTs great 2017 in your head? And this is a real question. Because every Guice homer seems to be completely dismissing the impressive aspects of CTs 2017. 

 

Easy. If you look at his career, 2017 was the statistical outlier. Remember Matt Ryan's 2016 season? He never had a season like that before. Do you think he'll have a season like that again? Same with Andy Dalton's 2015 season. They are statistical outliers. I like Chris Thompson, but he's this years Bilal Powell. He'll be overdrafted because his numbers were propped up by big plays last season.

Edited by wonderbread
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9 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

So how do you get around CTs great 2017 in your head? And this is a real question. Because every Guice homer seems to be completely dismissing the impressive aspects of CTs 2017. 

 

not completely dismissing, I think CT is a worthwhile mid-late pick in PPR.   But he was thrust into a higher volume role due to injury and ineffectiveness.   Guice- like Mixon- is a legit 3 down talent.    Certainly no guarantee it pans out but I have watched a fair amount of Guice tape prepping for a devy dynasty and he can do it all.   

Edited by Impreza178

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

not completely dismissing, I think CT is a worthwhile mid-late pick in PPR.   But he was thrust into a higher volume role due to injury and ineffectiveness.   Guice- like Mixon- is a legit 3 down talent.    Certainly no guarantee it pans out but I have watched a fair amount of Guice tape prepping for a devy dynasty and he can do it all.   

 

Why have him do it all when you have another talented back in CT and can keep them both fresher?

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Unlikely. Thompson is a better runner than Guice is a receiver. The hope for Guice owners is that Thompson is made of glass. 

 

I do like Thompson too and think he is a very good RB. He's dynamic and can both run and catch well.  For us in standard leagues though, looking at Guice a lot earlier makes sense.

 

Then for those in keeper leagues it really gets you thinking about what Guice could potentially become.  Guice just turned 21.  He's crazy young.

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

not completely dismissing, I think CT is a worthwhile mid-late pick in PPR.   But he was thrust into a higher volume role due to injury and ineffectiveness.   Guice- like Mixon- is a legit 3 down talent.    Certainly no guarantee it pans out but I have watched a fair amount of Guice tape prepping for a devy dynasty and he can do it all.   

Washington was using CT quite a bit even before injuries and ineffectiveness. And he was getting a good amount of work the season before. He was scoring TD's for the offense as well. I still expect Gruden to mix in CT quite a bit on early downs and in the RZ.

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11 minutes ago, devaster said:

Washington was using CT quite a bit even before injuries and ineffectiveness. And he was getting a good amount of work the season before. He was scoring TD's for the offense as well. I still expect Gruden to mix in CT quite a bit on early downs and in the RZ.

 

The ineffectiveness started right away.   Kelley and Perine weren’t cutting it.   I’d expect Guice to hit the ground running (no pun intended)- he’s a much better player imo.  More polished. 

 

I agree on CT tho- he’s a part of this offense.  They should and likely will keep him involved...As a complimentary piece to the guy they hope is their franchise back.  If Guice turns into a pumpkin or gets hurt-  we could see a repeat of CTs 2017 until he breaks down from volume.

Edited by Impreza178

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On 7/16/2018 at 9:52 AM, Impreza178 said:

 

Nah.    Work smarter not longer.

 

i think Perine is being completely forgotten about too.   Are we really dismissing him after a rookie season he started to show promise late? 

The drafting of Guice was a vote of "no-confidence" in Perine.  So the answer to your question is in the affirmative.

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3 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

The ineffectiveness started right away.   Kelley and Perine weren’t cutting it.   I’d expect Guice to hit the ground running (no pun intended)- he’s a much better player imo.  More polished. 

 

I agree on CT tho- he’s a part of this offense.  They should and likely will keep him involved...As a complimentary piece to the guy they hope is their franchise back.  If Guice turns into a pumpkin or gets hurt-  we could see a repeat of CTs 2017 until he breaks down from volume.

Coming back from a broken leg is no guarantee, especially with his long injury history.  Not saying he won't be back this year -- just that they may bring him along slowly if need be.  Guice's 3rd round price is slightly related, imo, to the fact that CT is coming off a bad injury.

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