dashoe

Derrius Guice 2018 Outlook

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Jay Gruden is 100% West Coast offense. If you take his running backs, you're reaching for an RB3. End transmission.

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16 hours ago, jmausen said:

Jay Gruden is 100% West Coast offense. If you take his running backs, you're reaching for an RB3. End transmission.

There was nearly 240 carries and 26 receptions between Kelley and Perine last year.  They also gave Thompson 60+ carries.  

 

They still want to run the ball and I do believe Gruden wants to run it more than they did last year.  Guice gives them that ability.  I'd say you can give Guice at least 240 carries with 30 receptions on the year if he stays healthy and Thompson's role stays the same.

 

BUT, what if Thompson isn't 100% when he returns? What if Checkdown Smith throws even more balls to Guice than he did to Perine or FatRob?

 

To write-off Guice this easily as you say above is a mistake.  

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4 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

There was nearly 240 carries and 26 receptions between Kelley and Perine last year.  They also gave Thompson 60+ carries.  

 

They still want to run the ball and I do believe Gruden wants to run it more than they did last year.  Guice gives them that ability.  I'd say you can give Guice at least 240 carries with 30 receptions on the year if he stays healthy and Thompson's role stays the same.

 

BUT, what if Thompson isn't 100% when he returns? What if Checkdown Smith throws even more balls to Guice than he did to Perine or FatRob?

 

To write-off Guice this easily as you say above is a mistake.  

 

I didn't say they won't run the ball. 

I was implying that the head coach isn't committed to or very good at it.

 

O-line job description:  top priority is pass protection.  Do that first, second, and third.  Run blocking is nice too...if you can pass protect.

 

RB3 until coaching can prove otherwise.

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1 hour ago, jmausen said:

 

I didn't say they won't run the ball. 

I was implying that the head coach isn't committed to or very good at it.

 

O-line job description:  top priority is pass protection.  Do that first, second, and third.  Run blocking is nice too...if you can pass protect.

 

RB3 until coaching can prove otherwise.

I disagree that the HC isn't committed to it.  The problem has been the RBs haven't panned out.  If Perine had been better last year or Kelley before him they wouldn't be looking for a RB this draft.  Going with Guice shows me the organization is indeed committed and wants to improve the run game.

 

Like I said before WSH is looking for a better RB so they can run the ball more often and have a balanced attack.

 

If you were a HC and your RBs were terrible you probably wouldn't run the ball much either.

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On ‎5‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 11:26 AM, FollowTheLeader said:

 

IMHO Guice will own this backfield. "3rd down" PPR back Thomson showed us what he was last season, and showed us last season that his big time output wasn't sustainable (his 2 big games weeks 2 and 3 proved to be anomalies), so those spending more on Thompson will (IMO) be let down.

 

Guice on 1st-2nd down...Guice on a lot of 3rd downs between the 20's, as defenses won't be able to know the plan pre-snap (like they would with PPR RB Thompson in the backfield)...Guice at the goal line...and Thomson on some 3rd downs, and when playing from behind...and other backs will spell Guice on pure rushing plays, as Thompson didn't get much in that realm last season anyway; he averaged 6 carries a game over weeks 1 - 11.

 

More weight to Guice owning this backfield (below), and that those drafting/bidding on Thompson over Guice (which is why I originally posted/responded with the quote above, see bolded portion), will be very disappointed:

 

"Redskins coach Jay Gruden said "it's been very exciting" watching second-round RB Derrius Guice catch the football.
Gruden said Guice is "more of a first-, second-down banger" after the draft, but the rookie's performance during the offseason program seems to be changing his mind. Chris Thompson should still be the primary third-down back, but it makes sense for Washington to get Guice involved in the passing game as well, especially on early downs. If he is used as a receiver, Guice will have a great shot to out-play his fourth-round ADP"

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I don't think anyone was saying to draft Thompson over Guice. Thompson will be a value pick most likely though. Especially with coach speak from Gruden like we saw today.

 

News like that will drive Guice's ADP up further. I'm not buying it, nor am I buying Guice in redraft. Not going to be worth his ADP in value imo.

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On ‎5‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 11:00 AM, dashoe said:

Guice will prob trade $10-15 with the thompson overhang in ppr and maybe u can lock up the backfield  with thompson for $20-25 depending on demand for a redskins backfield. 

 

Case in point ^ and there were others arguing this with me earlier in the thread as well.

 

*sorry, dashoe, not trying to bash you, just substantiate my claim.

Edited by FollowTheLeader

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

I don't think anyone was saying to draft Thompson over Guice. Thompson will be a value pick most likely though. Especially with coach speak from Gruden like we saw today.

 

News like that will drive Guice's ADP up further. I'm not buying it, nor am I buying Guice in redraft. Not going to be worth his ADP in value imo.

 

Just curious, where would you reasonably buy in re-draft?

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12 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Just curious, where would you reasonably buy in re-draft?

Well in my 10-team standard I'd be waiting until the 7th or 8th round probably. That is nearly 30 spots away from his current ADP. He isn't a rookie with a clear path to the majority of the touches on his team imo. He will have to fall to me to be interested. And he won't. I also have a concern with GL work. Even with Matt Jones and other RB's under Gruden they have had a difficult time scoring outside of Rob Kelley's short period of success.

 

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

I don't think anyone was saying to draft Thompson over Guice.

 

Starting back on page 4, there were 3 members arguing Thompson over Guice vs me. *the others just weren't as easy to quote...

Edited by FollowTheLeader

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47 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Just curious, where would you reasonably buy in re-draft?

 

12 Team - PPR?

IMHO - depending on how I drafted position wise (in the 1st 3 RDs), anywhere from RDs 4 - 6. I'd be fine with him as my RB2 (considering how I drafted prior to adding him), and elated with him as RB3-4.

 

*before replying, I performed a Mock on FPros (avoiding the WAS RBs), and the computer drafted Thompson in the 5th, and Guice in the 7th BWAHAHAHAHAHA :lol:

Edited by FollowTheLeader
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41 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

 

Starting back on page 4, there were 3 members arguing Thompson over Guice vs me. *the others just weren't as easy to quote...

Which posters? I didn't see anyone specifically stating that Thompson be drafted over Guice. Or that any of them would. In full PPR Thompson is up there with Guice though.

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8 minutes ago, devaster said:

Which posters? I didn't see anyone specifically stating that Thompson be drafted over Guice. Or that any of them would. In full PPR Thompson is up there with Guice though.

 

Scroll up about 5 posts, and you'll see I just quoted the one that started it. *back on page 4 it all began.

 

dashoe made that statement, I retorted in disagreement, and then kdco (?) and RT(?) jumped in; no offense meant to either, just the facts. I clearly stated (in everyone of my replies), that I was arguing against dashoe's statement "that Thompson was worth more than Guice." No one ever clarified anything different, they just kept hanging on Thompson's jock, over Guice. So, yes...several posters stated, Thompson has more value than Guice. Maybe they've since changed their minds, but I haven't read anything along those lines.

 

 

Edited by FollowTheLeader

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This kid is slowly becoming my clear cut #2 in rookie drafts this summer. All the news coming from the skins has been super positive. Good work ethic, pushing his teammates, great in the community, slowly becoming a fan favorite, getting lots of praise from the vets, etc...  Sky is the limit for Derrius. I think we've got something special here gentlemen.

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I've always liked this kid and hoping to snag him in my keeper leagues. I was hoping the Guice hype would be a bit slower to surface but it seems to be starting already.  I do believe that Thompson will still have his traditional role to start the season.  Thompson, when healthy, can produce and there is no reason for WSH to change things up. But as the season goes on, if Guice is showing he can do certain things in the passing game all bets are off.

 

I'm very curious and watching closely how dynasty ranks/drafts are going with this kid and where he is falling.  

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On 6/22/2018 at 3:43 PM, Mr2Saint said:

This kid is slowly becoming my clear cut #2 in rookie drafts this summer. All the news coming from the skins has been super positive. Good work ethic, pushing his teammates, great in the community, slowly becoming a fan favorite, getting lots of praise from the vets, etc...  Sky is the limit for Derrius. I think we've got something special here gentlemen.

 

Watch the tape.  Best rookie RB not named  Saquon.

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Drafting Guice before or after.... 

 

McKinnon? 

Mixon? 

Howard? 

Collins? 

Miller? 

Ajayi? 

Penny? 

Michel? 

 

I think the 240 carries + 30 recs is a fair estimate.  I could see 260+ if the stars align. 

 

For context, here are the attempts for guys who started 16 games last year:

 -  Bell 321

 -  McCoy 287

 -  Gordon 284

 -  Gurley 279

 -  Howard 276

 -  Hunt 272

 -  Gore 261

 -  Hyde 240

 

250 carries is guaranteed 1,000 yards rushing.  If YPC is 4.3, he's at 1,100 yards rushing. I don't think 270 carries is out of the question just looking at Hunt and Howard volume up there, and remembering how misused both were. 

 

Can Guice add 250 receiving? 10 total TDs?  Why the hell not? 

 

If so, he's pushing for 200 standard points which is low end RB1.

 

So back to the original question. I'm probably taking Guice over Howard late in the 2nd round of a standard league.

 

Perine and Kelly are garbage. Thompson may not be healthy. If the Skins OL stays healthy, Guice will break 4.3 YPC.  Anyone who has scouted college running backs knows how good this guy is. 

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27 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Drafting Guice before or after.... 

 

McKinnon? 

Mixon? 

Howard? 

Collins? 

Miller? 

Ajayi? 

Penny? 

Michel? 

We are pretty close but right now I am drafting guice after Howard but before all of the others. If your league drafts early and you really want him it's ok to reach for him because once he overtakes the other backs in the presesson his value will go up probably to where you reched for him.  I wouldn't be comfortable taking him in the 2nd (yet) but maybe late to middle third.

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

Drafting Guice before or after.... 

 

McKinnon? 

Mixon? 

Howard? 

Collins? 

Miller? 

Ajayi? 

Penny? 

Michel? 

 

Just based off this list and my early observations, I would take Guice before all of the RBs listed. I wouldn't make any arguments if anyone wanted to take Howard before Guice, but just my personal preference I prefer Derrius. I also think Mixon is close, but the rest I wouldn't have to think twice about passing on for Guice. 

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

McKinnon? 

Mixon? 

Howard? 

Collins? 

Miller? 

Ajayi? 

Penny? 

Michel? 

The only one I may draft over him would be Mixon, but I think I'd go Guice.

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Mccoy

.

.

.

Mckinnon

Mixon

Howard 

Guice 

Miller

Penny

Collins

.

.

Michel 

 

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How high is this guy going to rise? RB 21 with ADP 47.8 right now on ESPN but I see him rising up into low 30s around likes of McKinnon, Mixon and Howard during preseason. In PPR I'd probably still take McKinnon and Mixon ahead of him due to their higher receiving upside but I think its a toss-up between him and Howard. We know Howard is the focal point of the Bears offense and their defense should be much improved to enable them to grind out games but I think Guice has more upside as the more naturally gifted player in what I predict to be a higher scoring offense. 

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Word out of camp was Kelly was getting all first team reps, plus there's Thompson.  I'd put Guice behind all those RB's listed, especially in PPR.

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7 minutes ago, kdko said:

Word out of camp was Kelly was getting all first team reps, plus there's Thompson.  I'd put Guice behind all those RB's listed, especially in PPR.

Real camp hasn't started yet.  Most rookies don't start as #1 on the depth chart.  Give it time.

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36 minutes ago, kdko said:

Word out of camp was Kelly was getting all first team reps, plus there's Thompson.  I'd put Guice behind all those RB's listed, especially in PPR.

Meh, that will not last.  Booker got most of the first-round reps in Denver so far, too.  I don't expect him to hold off Royce for the starting gig and I'd be positively shocked if Guice gets beat out by jaggy Fat Rob.

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