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Lamar Jackson 2018 Outlook

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9 minutes ago, wayzupusc said:

Good Ds will take that away.

Like the 26th, 27th, and 30th-ranked defenses he plays the next three weeks?

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On 11/26/2018 at 7:06 AM, wayzupusc said:

Both his INTs were bad decisions, bad throws into thick coverage with next to no pass rush on him whatsoever. He may have had a halfway decent game at home against the worst team in the NFL who have a gutted roster but both those picks were 100% on Lamar Jackson. Just because they were deflected doesn't mean they weren't terrible decisions by a rookie QB.

 

First one was down the sideline to a WR totally covered up by a CB with a deep safety there to double & the CB tip drilled it to the safety. The second one should have been picked by the underneath defender as it was thrown right at him...even if he were not there, the intended receiver was not open & it very well could have been a pick if it wasn't deflected at all. Both were bad decisions, both were totally on Lamar Jackson.

 

I'm not a hater & Jackson may develop into a good QB but at this point he is typical rookie QB who relies too much on running to produce. I wouldn't want to be in a position that I would need to start him in anything but the deepest leagues or 2 QB leagues & even then, I wouldn't do so with confidence against any halfway decent defense. It's just too easy for competent DC's who have non-gutted rosters to take the run portion of his game away & force him to throw.....of course, Atlanta's defense is right there with Oakland & Cincinnati so if you like what you've seen the past 2 weeks, it's not a stretch to expect more of that.

 

Did you watch the game?

His second INT was the one to a sideline WR that was crabtree, that was 50% crabtree fault, 49% great play by the defense and 1% lamar fault.

Lamar's mistake was throwing downfield to crabtree who is slower than molasses and quits on routes. His only deep target should be Brown.

Use crabtree/snead middle of field.

Edited by pdog109

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2 hours ago, Ruut6 said:

Like the 26th, 27th, and 30th-ranked defenses he plays the next three weeks?

 

This week, it's not just about the defense he's facing but also the offense that BALT will be facing -- ATL.

 

The game is in ATL where Ryan thrives. They are going to move the ball. And to be honest, what is up with the BALT D lately? While they are getting flukey TDs, they are allowing opposing offenses to move the ball surprisingly well.

 

Jackson theoretically will be forced to throw much more here. Possibly a few less possessions since ATL will move the ball and also tends to move more at a snails pace.

 

Despite ATL's defensive ranking, I think this will be a tougher test due to a flipped gamescript. 

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Just put Flacco on IR to end his long tenure of outstanding merit in dignity. Let Jackson play. If their D can step up a notch, and they have the potential to be a great D, nobody will want to face that ground attack. It would be like the Kaepernick lead 49ers who ironically lost to the Ravens in the Superbowl.

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20 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Jackson theoretically will be forced to throw much more here. Possibly a few less possessions since ATL will move the ball and also tends to move more at a snails pace.

 

Despite ATL's defensive ranking, I think this will be a tougher test due to a flipped gamescript. 


OR they can run the ball 40+ times against a team that can't stop a nose bleed and keep the ball out of the dangerous offenses hands... similar to what they've done BOTH GAMES LJ HAS STARTED, in which they've out possesed their opponents by a combined 24 minutes, and also won. 

I seriously feel like people are coming in here and just making up things to argue why this guy isn't viable. It boggles the mind. Do you legitimately  think the Ravens coaching staff doesn't know who they're playing? Do we think that they, I don't know, might quite possibly game plan around it. 

Edited by VIKEVIKE77
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As a starter Lamar Jackson has a 100% win rate, just think about that stat.

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35 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

 

 

Despite ATL's defensive ranking, I think this will be a tougher test due to a flipped gamescript. 

I'm sorry if my post came across as douchey. You make a valid argument if Balt's D can't stop Atlanta (who has a much better offense than Oak or Cincy) , I should've engaged in more civil discourse than my last paragraph. My apologies, mate. 

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They're going to ride the momentum with Jackson.

 

Rookie/backup QB thrown in earlier than expected with nothing to lose and ends up looking like a stud. How many times have we seen this?

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but he doesnt look good at all. Baltimore doesnt look good. Playcalling is terrible. It was just Oakland and it took enormous effort to get respectable line. When I picked him up, I thought Tyler Thigpen....not even close

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41 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

 

This week, it's not just about the defense he's facing but also the offense that BALT will be facing -- ATL.

 

The game is in ATL where Ryan thrives. They are going to move the ball. And to be honest, what is up with the BALT D lately? While they are getting flukey TDs, they are allowing opposing offenses to move the ball surprisingly well.

 

Jackson theoretically will be forced to throw much more here. Possibly a few less possessions since ATL will move the ball and also tends to move more at a snails pace.

 

Despite ATL's defensive ranking, I think this will be a tougher test due to a flipped gamescript. 

In a game where he is forced to drop back more >>> more times he will take off and run with the ball.   The Ravens will put up plenty of points against the Falcons, LJ should have his hand in most of them.

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1 hour ago, kyoun1e said:

 

This week, it's not just about the defense he's facing but also the offense that BALT will be facing -- ATL.

 

The game is in ATL where Ryan thrives. They are going to move the ball. And to be honest, what is up with the BALT D lately? While they are getting flukey TDs, they are allowing opposing offenses to move the ball surprisingly well.

 

Jackson theoretically will be forced to throw much more here. Possibly a few less possessions since ATL will move the ball and also tends to move more at a snails pace.

 

Despite ATL's defensive ranking, I think this will be a tougher test due to a flipped gamescript. 

So being down in a game is bad for a QB now?

 

There’s no spin on this. Jackson has probably the best playoff fantasy schedule of anyone.

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1 hour ago, VIKEVIKE77 said:

I'm sorry if my post came across as douchey. You make a valid argument if Balt's D can't stop Atlanta (who has a much better offense than Oak or Cincy) , I should've engaged in more civil discourse than my last paragraph. My apologies, mate. 

 

I love how everyone gets defensive in these threads if...god forbid...you don't paint the rosiest of outlooks.

 

I own Jackson. I'm starting him in one league, on the fence in another. All I'm saying is, a little more risk is introduced when the team Jackson is playing against isn't a bunch of morons like the Raiders.

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12 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

 

I love how everyone gets defensive in these threads if...god forbid...you don't paint the rosiest of outlooks.

 

I own Jackson. I'm starting him in one league, on the fence in another. All I'm saying is, a little more risk is introduced when the team Jackson is playing against isn't a bunch of morons like the Raiders.

As I said in the post you quoted, I apologize for the defensive tone, it didn't provide any real input. 

I don't need a rosy outlook but your's is unrealistic and it doesn't particularly make sense to think they're just gonna start airing it out after you have seen 2 games in a row of 40+ rushes and a clock controlling offense against defenses as putrid as the one they face this week. Why in god's name do you think they would get away from that when the way to beat an offensive team stacked with talent is to stay the course with what has worked and not allow them to have the ball?  

 

Edited by VIKEVIKE77
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No reason to think about sitting Lamar until someone stops the Baltimore run game with him as starter, and that is my view.

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2 hours ago, pdog109 said:

As a starter Lamar Jackson has a 100% win rate, just think about that stat.

I am thinking about it

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7 minutes ago, wayzupusc said:

Y'all can disagree with me and/or mock me all you want and i could not possibly care less. I am merely pointing out that he is a run-dependent QB AT THIS POINT & his inability to get WR's involved limits him severely. And if you're needing to use a one-dimensional rookie who can't pass to his WR's effectively at this point in the season, your team has bigger issues than trying to prove me wrong. (which I'm not)

 

Two words: Fantasy. Football.

 

Key stat: 22 points

 

Even Josh freakin Allen has jumped up on the radar. Both of these QB's are far from finished products. Both of these QB's need to improve in the offseason however, the intangibles and talent that they bring to the table are great for fantasy football right now.

Edited by nonstopfan
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Any player that is capable of running automatically provides a certain floor, like Cam Newton. Even in poor passing games, there is always a chance for 60 yards rushing, maybe a TD too.

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I am pretty sure Dak was successful his rookie year in real life. As it relates to fantasy, if you don't understand how valuable it is that someone like Lamar Jackson can outscore Drew Brees when he has 4 td's because you have some preconceived notion about how a QB is supposed to play, I would love to play in your league.

Edited by AJJones
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2 hours ago, VIKEVIKE77 said:

As I said in the post you quoted, I apologize for the defensive tone, it didn't provide any real input. 

I don't need a rosy outlook but your's is unrealistic and it doesn't particularly make sense to think they're just gonna start airing it out after you have seen 2 games in a row of 40+ rushes and a clock controlling offense against defenses as putrid as the one they face this week. Why in god's name do you think they would get away from that when the way to beat an offensive team stacked with talent is to stay the course with what has worked and not allow them to have the ball?  

 

 

A scenario that was not a possibility the last two weeks is this: ATL gets up say, 17-0, at home, in the dome.

 

That's a reason why they would go away from 40+ rushes.

 

Is it likely? Maybe. Maybe not. It IS more likely to happen this week vs. the last two.

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2 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

 

A scenario that was not a possibility the last two weeks is this: ATL gets up say, 17-0, at home, in the dome.

 

That's a reason why they would go away from 40+ rushes.


Very valid point. Do you believe that, even if they called 35-40 pass plays for Lamar while playing from behind that he wouldn't ab lib and use his legs a pretty good amount ? I truly think that if he was asked to pass that often he would still end up with 60+ yds on the ground. That's the whole meat and potatoes of my point, It got lost somehwere in there with rushing attempts as I conflated what I was trying to say. 

No one can make this kid sit in the pocket and pass for the whole game, he had 2 rushing attempts in the first half last week and still hit 70+ on the ground. If ATL got comfortable with a big lead and started playing a vanilla defensive scheme with the bunch they got on D, he would absolutely thrash them on the ground, even if the intention was to pass. It's just not in his nature to be contained in the pocket, regardless of score, and for fantasy purposes.... I dig it. 

I understand where you're coming from and acknowledge that ATL can put up 20+ in a hurry on someone, which is something we haven't seen yet with LJ. 

Edited by VIKEVIKE77
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3 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

 

A scenario that was not a possibility the last two weeks is this: ATL gets up say, 17-0, at home, in the dome.

 

That's a reason why they would go away from 40+ rushes.

 

Is it likely? Maybe. Maybe not. It IS more likely to happen this week vs. the last two.

 

Valid reasoning, but lets look at few stats....

1. Baltimore is #1 in the league in least yards allowed

2. Baltimore is #2 in the league in least pass yards allowed (significant because Coleman wont carry this team)

3. Baltimore is #1 in the league in PPG (Defensively)

 

So yes, there is a "chance" that Atlanta can go up by more than two scores, but its more likely that this is a close game. especially considering these stats...

1. Atlanta is 25th against the run (significant because Baltimore is a run first and run second team now)

2. Atlanta is 28th in Total yards allowed

 

But, lets go back to your example of 17-0. Even in this scenario, most teams on defense become less aggressive and play prevent more opening massive holes underneath for quick strikes (his strength) and huge chunk runs by Jackson.

Edited by nonstopfan

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4 hours ago, AJJones said:

I am pretty sure Dak was successful his rookie year in real life. As it relates to fantasy, if you don't understand how valuable it is that someone like Lamar Jackson can outscore Drew Brees when he has 4 td's because you have some preconceived notion about how a QB is supposed to play, I would love to play in your league.

 

There's a lot of idiots here stuck on 1990's and how QBs are supposed to look and play

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12 minutes ago, goke said:

 

There's a lot of idiots here stuck on 1990's and how QBs are supposed to look and play

Lamar Jackson's style of play isnt one that can be sustained for a long time. Newton's a freak specimen. Lamar better learn how to develop some pocket passing skills. 

Edited by Chippa

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