the_dying_dream

Kerryon Johnson 2018 Outlook

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6'0

212 lb

Drafted in the second round by the Lions. Ameer Abdullah has had his chance and Johnson has 3 down back potential. Thoughts on his landing spot?

 

 

 

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Below average potential this year unless the team gets away from the committee approach.  Blount will have GL duties, you have Riddick taking the pass catching 3rd down role, and you then AA if he hangs around stealing a touch here and there.   I'd say in two seasons he might have a shot at being a consistent fantasy threat.  This season will be him trying to climb through the riff-raff and get them to clear a path for him the following season to be the primary guy.

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Like it overall. Definatley 3 down potential. Loved watcing him take over in games for auburn last year. I think durability is somewhat a red flag but he was a tough S.O.B and played through alot as well. Elite speed isnt there, but not essential. He shows leveon-bell type patience at the line at times. I think he has great vision and a great understanding of how to follow and let his blocks set up properly. Good pair of hands.

 

For redraft - slightly muddled in the short term. Im sure blount will get usage. Theo will probably still see 3rds and passing situations.

 

For dynasty - love the potential, a top 6 pick for me in rookie drafts.

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2 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Like it overall. Definatley 3 down potential. Loved watcing him take over in games for auburn last year. I think durability is somewhat a red flag but he was a tough S.O.B and played through alot as well. Elite speed isnt there, but not essential. He shows leveon-bell type patience at the line at times. I think he has great vision and a great understanding of how to follow and let his blocks set up properly. Good pair of hands.

 

For redraft - slightly muddled in the short term. Im sure blount will get usage. Theo will probably still see 3rds and passing situations.

 

For dynasty - love the potential, a top 6 pick for me in rookie drafts.

 

Agree, I think this is a great spot for him to land.  

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Will be closely monitoring all the top rookie RBs this PS, but right now, Barkley and Jones are the two rookies who look like they have the best chances of garnering bellcow usage in PPR (which is all I play).  As folks have already said, Johnson is going to be vultured for both targets and GL carries.  He could stand on his head and still see the bench on pass downs and GL plunges.

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14 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Will be closely monitoring all the top rookie RBs this PS, but right now, Barkley and Jones are the two rookies who look like they have the best chances of garnering bellcow usage in PPR (which is all I play).  As folks have already said, Johnson is going to be vultured for both targets and GL carries.  He could stand on his head and still see the bench on pass downs and GL plunges.

 

I should have mentioned Penny along with Barkley and Jones.  Those three look like the best rookie bets in PPR IMO.

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13 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I should have mentioned Penny along with Barkley and Jones.  Those three look like the best rookie bets in PPR IMO.

 

Off-topic, but you can probably add Royce Freeman to that list, he's only competing with underachiever Devontae Booker and relatively unknown De'Angelo Henderson.

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I think Johnson could be a sneaky bet as someone who takes over mid season and propels himself to the top of draft boards for 2019. Abdullah has been very underwhelming and can't stay healthy. Riddick excels as a pass catcher but doesn't offer much else. And at this point I think Blount is a big body GL ramming rod. Detroit did a nice job of upgrading the line in the draft and spending a second round pick on Johnson is somewhat of a high pick. As long as he can beat out Abdullah for touches I think he can work himself into the lead back role and take over by mid season while Riddick still does his thing and Blount still hangs around. Obviously certain aspects of the game will get vultured here and there but I think if you're looking for value then Johnson will be the rookie RB who's still hanging around on the board late in the draft because people are scared off by AA/Riddick/Blount. A lot of competition in Detroits backfield sure...but nothing to write home about. 

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56 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I think Johnson could be a sneaky bet as someone who takes over mid season and propels himself to the top of draft boards for 2019. Abdullah has been very underwhelming and can't stay healthy. Riddick excels as a pass catcher but doesn't offer much else. And at this point I think Blount is a big body GL ramming rod. Detroit did a nice job of upgrading the line in the draft and spending a second round pick on Johnson is somewhat of a high pick. As long as he can beat out Abdullah for touches I think he can work himself into the lead back role and take over by mid season while Riddick still does his thing and Blount still hangs around. Obviously certain aspects of the game will get vultured here and there but I think if you're looking for value then Johnson will be the rookie RB who's still hanging around on the board late in the draft because people are scared off by AA/Riddick/Blount. A lot of competition in Detroits backfield sure...but nothing to write home about. 

 

I agree with this.

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1 hour ago, smeeze said:

 

Off-topic, but you can probably add Royce Freeman to that list, he's only competing with underachiever Devontae Booker and relatively unknown De'Angelo Henderson.

 

The Freeman/Booker battle is one I'll be watching closely too.

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

 I think if you're looking for value then Johnson will be the rookie RB who's still hanging around on the board late in the draft because people are scared off by AA/Riddick/Blount. A lot of competition in Detroits backfield sure...but nothing to write home about. 

 

How can Johnson have much of a ceiling, especially in PPR, with Riddick vulturing all the pass down work and Blount vulturing many of the scores?  That is the worst situation a rookie RB can face.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder

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I don't think Blount will vulture THAT many TDs. I don't think Johnson will be Kamara 2.0 but solid RB2 type numbers by the second half of the season? I could see that. Riddick will probably get his 4-5 catches a game and he hasn't been a model of health either. Plus I'm sure they're not going to give Blount 100% of red zone opportunities. I think Johnson can take over this offense as the primary back and the Lions are a pretty productive offense to be in 

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He will be the starter week 1. Great blocker, decent hands, and an eye for the endzone. 450 carries over the last few years and will play hurt. 

 

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On 4/30/2018 at 8:02 PM, Fort4242 said:

I don't think Blount will vulture THAT many TDs. I don't think Johnson will be Kamara 2.0 but solid RB2 type numbers by the second half of the season? I could see that. Riddick will probably get his 4-5 catches a game and he hasn't been a model of health either. Plus I'm sure they're not going to give Blount 100% of red zone opportunities. I think Johnson can take over this offense as the primary back and the Lions are a pretty productive offense to be in 

 

I could see that in two years.  I don't see how they give him the bulk of anything as a rookie.  How many rushing TDs do you think there are to go around?   It is a very crowded backfield, even if they get rid of AA.

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@Sternes I'm assuming from your avi you're a Lions fan?  If that's the case, I'm sure you have more insight than I do, so I would love your input.  I see a Lions team that has been in the bottom of the league in rushing stats across the board for a few years.  Is that because they don't want to run the ball, or because they haven't had a complete back to carry the load yet?  I think the latter simply because Abdullah hasn't done much and can't stay on the field, and Riddick is a 3rd down/passing type back exclusively.  Now they have Johnson who can carry the load and be a feature back.  The Lions had 1221 rushing yards last year and 10 TDs.  If we say that Johnson gets 60% of the share, and the Lions running game remains as #32 in the league, that is 732 yards and 6 TDs.  I think this could be Johnson's floor because I think the Lions will try to establish more of a run game, since they have an actual RB now, and will actually be better at it.  They also added Ragnow and Crosby to the line, and should have Decker for an entire season.  This could be an underrated, sneaky good run game in 2018.

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

@Sternes I'm assuming from your avi you're a Lions fan?  If that's the case, I'm sure you have more insight than I do, so I would love your input.  I see a Lions team that has been in the bottom of the league in rushing stats across the board for a few years.  Is that because they don't want to run the ball, or because they haven't had a complete back to carry the load yet?  I think the latter simply because Abdullah hasn't done much and can't stay on the field, and Riddick is a 3rd down/passing type back exclusively.  Now they have Johnson who can carry the load and be a feature back.  The Lions had 1221 rushing yards last year and 10 TDs.  If we say that Johnson gets 60% of the share, and the Lions running game remains as #32 in the league, that is 732 yards and 6 TDs.  I think this could be Johnson's floor because I think the Lions will try to establish more of a run game, since they have an actual RB now, and will actually be better at it.  They also added Ragnow and Crosby to the line, and should have Decker for an entire season.  This could be an underrated, sneaky good run game in 2018.

 

This might be a bit scattered and other fans may or may not agree. 

 

One of the biggest problems was the coaching staff.  Jim Bob Cooter's offense sucks IMO.  A lot will disagree.  It is a college type offense that I have personally never liked.  It is too reliant on mismatches, and when it isn't found the team flounders.  The run game is lots of shotgun runs and stubbornly (stupidly) predictable at times when they get in the jumbo formation inside the 10.  There is also a bizarre thing I read where it was unclear who was calling what.   JBC said he gives the package or play type, then Stafford was doing the actual play.  I'm trying to find the article on it.  I don't mind if Stafford is calling the plays, but it seemed like a lot of finger pointing over whose fault it was when things didn't work.

 

Now how much was that Caldwell's influence, IDK.  I think Caldwell had some influence in personnel decisions, as Dwayne Washington got a bizarre amount of unwarranted playing time.  He stuck with AA overly long. 

 

This is a prime example of play calling.  Week 4 2016 vs Bears

1st and Goal at CHI 5 (9:24 - 3rd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Riddick right tackle to CHI 1 for 4 yards (H.Jones-Quartey).

2nd and Goal at CHI 1 (8:44 - 3rd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Riddick right guard to CHI 1 for no gain (W.Sutton).

3rd and Goal at CHI 1 (8:03 - 3rd) C.Robinson reported in as eligible. Z.Zenner right guard to CHI 3 for -2 yards (J.Timu).

4th and Goal at CHI 3 (7:18 - 3rd) Matt Prater 21 Yd Field Goal

 

Now, you might be thinking, "Hey, Johnson is a better back then those guys!"  Watch these plays. The Zenner one is positively embarrassing at the NFL level.  I'm not sure how they don't audible out of that play call.

(Having issues embedding them.  Please do if you know how.)

 

https://twitter.com/ErikLambert1/status/782674910443212800/video/1

(Riddick 2nd and goal)

https://twitter.com/ErikLambert1/status/782675556458385409/video/1

(Zenner 3rd and goal)

 

Now, a lot could change alone with the coaching staff.  It should also be noted we did bring in Blount.  The Lions had 10 rushing TDs last year, to think Blount isn't going to cut heavily into that would be unwise.  Blount will get GL and Johnson will get some.  Riddick will be 3rd down.  Hope they get rid of AA via trade or cutting.  They still need to cut Washington, Zenner, and Green (maybe PS stash).

 

You said 732 & 6 TD floor for a floor.  That is very optimistic.  I went back to 1980, and these are the Lions RB that have done that.

 

LeShoure

Sims

Sanders

Smith

 

I went back to 1920, and got the same results, those four.  I included all NFL players back to 1980, and the total is 71 who did it in their rookie year.  At a glance, every one of them was given the reins from the get go and had little other competition at RB on their team.  This is not the case here.  There is a lot of bodies, whether you think they are talented or not, around him.

 

New coaching staff, sure, but they have said (or the GM) that they plan to use a committee approach.  NE had one, the Lions previously had one, I wish they didn't, but I wouldn't bet against it.  Now, if Johnson can show a lot at the NFL level, I think he has the chance for management to clear him some volume next year. 

Edited by Sternes
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Johnson looks like good vision, and pile moving strength.  But, he’s in a bad situation so only has RB2 upside...

 

He’s worth a late round flier.

 

Royce Freeman is a much better bet in fantasy.  

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@seanismorris I agree about Freeman.  I think he is definitely a much better bet, and has top 10 RB potential IMO.  

 

@Sternes thanks for the insights.  I have heard a lot of people on various websites/forums complain about the Lion's offense.  

 

My floor projection might be a little high admittedly. My bet on Johnson is the idea that he is the best RB the Lions have had in years (yet to be seen of course), and the significant improvements we should see from the O-line.  However, as you mentioned, an incompetent coaching staff can sink an offense so so fast (ahem Jeff Fisher).  

 

Right now I would rank Johnson certainly behind these rookies, in no particular order:

Barkley

Freeman

Penny

Jones

Michel

Guice

 

I would rank him similarly to:

Chubb

Hines

Ballage

 

 

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http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2017/11/30/cooter-sounds-committed-to-run-game-regardless-of-results/

Cooter Sounds Committed To Run Game, Regardless Of Results

 

https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2017/10/26/5-improvements-oc-jim-bob-cooter-needs-to-make-to-detroit-lions-offense/2/

 

Here are some very easy tells that defenses are keying on:

  • When Theo Riddick is on the field, 89% of the time it’s a pass play.
  • When Nick Bellore is in at fullback, it’s a run play.
  • When it’s 3rd-and-long, Zach Zenner will pass block.
  • When its 3rd-and-short, Zenner will run.

 

Here are some less obvious but still noticeable trends:

  • They don’t run screen plays to their running backs (only five all year).
  • They don’t run two-tailback sets.
  • Marvin Jones’ routes will go vertically.
  • Golden Tate will run routes horizontally.
  • Eric Ebron’s rarely being targeted.

 

 

There are a bunch of random articles I could throw at you about weird stuff we do for no reason.  When Bellore  (FB) and Zenner were on the field at the same time, 5 out of 5 times it was run last season.  Talk about a giant clue as to what we were going to do.

 

Speaking of Zenner, here is another strange move (as someone who still thinks he is one of the best RB on that team and hasn't gotten a fair shot).

 

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2018/3/16/17128958/detroit-lions-free-agency-re-sign-running-back-zach-zenner

Sounds like Zenner had a few options, met with Matt Patricia before the start of FA, liked what he heard. One-year deal to stay for more than the league minimum.

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2018/3/1/17069532/detroit-lions-want-to-re-sign-zach-zenner-running-back

“New Lions coach Matt Patricia would like to re-sign Zenner and have him compete for a backup spot,” Birkett wrote.

 

 

Now it isn't a guarantee of anything.  Heck, it might have been just for the draft in case they didn't get their guy.  I just find it strange that they would bother convincing a guy who is a FA, who they didn't want last year, who wasn't even active most of the year, back.  Even on a nothing guaranteed deal.  Then to suggest he can compete for a backup spot.  No reason to lie to him about it, maybe they are serious.  It just clouds the backfield instead of clearing it.  They could have another camp body with more promise that might fill a more pressing need than another RB in an already crowded position.

 

Edited by Sternes
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He does not have three-down potential.

 

Theo Riddick is as good at being a passing down back as any NFL player is at anything. Jim Bob Cooter remains in place, and has achieved success for Stafford by leaning on the the horizontal passing game in place of a rushing attack.

 

I will say the same thing about Johnson as I have said every year about Abdullah. He's the number two in this offense. Detroit hasn't ranked in the top 25 in rushing TDs, or rushing attempts from inside the 20, 10, 5, or 2... this millennium (I don't remember my post about Abdullah from last year when I looked it all up, but I think that's all correct).

 

Oh, and Blount will get the few goal line carries that may come up. Oh, and Johnson is a plodder. Waiver wire fodder.

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3 hours ago, irvnasty said:

He does not have three-down potential.

 

Theo Riddick is as good at being a passing down back as any NFL player is at anything. Jim Bob Cooter remains in place, and has achieved success for Stafford by leaning on the the horizontal passing game in place of a rushing attack.

 

I will say the same thing about Johnson as I have said every year about Abdullah. He's the number two in this offense. Detroit hasn't ranked in the top 25 in rushing TDs, or rushing attempts from inside the 20, 10, 5, or 2... this millennium (I don't remember my post about Abdullah from last year when I looked it all up, but I think that's all correct).

 

Oh, and Blount will get the few goal line carries that may come up. Oh, and Johnson is a plodder. Waiver wire fodder.

we haven't even seen the dude play yet. lol

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15 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

we haven't even seen the dude play yet. lol

 

True. That statement applies equally to several dozen NFL players, including Johnson, a player unworthy of any more detailed consideration.

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20 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

we haven't even seen the dude play yet. lol

 

Some similar prospects...

 

Montario Hardesty ( a much better prospect)

Jamaal Williams (a better prospect)

LeShun Daniels

LeVon Coleman

Mack Brown

Brian Hill (a better prospect)

Brandon Wilds

Ron Dayne

 

He's a straight line runner with no ability to cut or break tackles. He's no more useful to an NFL offense than are you or I. I hope he learned something beside football at Auburn.

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On 5/3/2018 at 1:38 PM, Sternes said:

http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2017/11/30/cooter-sounds-committed-to-run-game-regardless-of-results/

Cooter Sounds Committed To Run Game, Regardless Of Results

 

https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2017/10/26/5-improvements-oc-jim-bob-cooter-needs-to-make-to-detroit-lions-offense/2/

 

Here are some very easy tells that defenses are keying on:

  • When Theo Riddick is on the field, 89% of the time it’s a pass play.
  • When Nick Bellore is in at fullback, it’s a run play.
  • When it’s 3rd-and-long, Zach Zenner will pass block.
  • When its 3rd-and-short, Zenner will run.

 

Here are some less obvious but still noticeable trends:

  • They don’t run screen plays to their running backs (only five all year).
  • They don’t run two-tailback sets.
  • Marvin Jones’ routes will go vertically.
  • Golden Tate will run routes horizontally.
  • Eric Ebron’s rarely being targeted.

 

 

There are a bunch of random articles I could throw at you about weird stuff we do for no reason.  When Bellore  (FB) and Zenner were on the field at the same time, 5 out of 5 times it was run last season.  Talk about a giant clue as to what we were going to do.

 

Speaking of Zenner, here is another strange move (as someone who still thinks he is one of the best RB on that team and hasn't gotten a fair shot).

 

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2018/3/16/17128958/detroit-lions-free-agency-re-sign-running-back-zach-zenner

Sounds like Zenner had a few options, met with Matt Patricia before the start of FA, liked what he heard. One-year deal to stay for more than the league minimum.

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2018/3/1/17069532/detroit-lions-want-to-re-sign-zach-zenner-running-back

“New Lions coach Matt Patricia would like to re-sign Zenner and have him compete for a backup spot,” Birkett wrote.

 

 

Now it isn't a guarantee of anything.  Heck, it might have been just for the draft in case they didn't get their guy.  I just find it strange that they would bother convincing a guy who is a FA, who they didn't want last year, who wasn't even active most of the year, back.  Even on a nothing guaranteed deal.  Then to suggest he can compete for a backup spot.  No reason to lie to him about it, maybe they are serious.  It just clouds the backfield instead of clearing it.  They could have another camp body with more promise that might fill a more pressing need than another RB in an already crowded position.

 

 

Whoa.  Zenner is the best back in the team but hasn't gotten a fair shot?  That's a strong statement Sternes.

 

I like it.

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2 hours ago, irvnasty said:

 

Some similar prospects...

 

Montario Hardesty ( a much better prospect)

Jamaal Williams (a better prospect)

LeShun Daniels

LeVon Coleman

Mack Brown

Brian Hill (a better prospect)

Brandon Wilds

Ron Dayne

 

He's a straight line runner with no ability to cut or break tackles. He's no more useful to an NFL offense than are you or I. I hope he learned something beside football at Auburn.

 

Tell us how you really feel about him, ha.

 

I was surprised he went as high as he did. 

 

But if he has vision, balance, and timing to the hole then maybe he can be Jordan Howard?  

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