Rolling Thunder

Lamar Miller 2018 Outlook

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I know the Texans did not have much draft capital, but they added no one to the RB room.  They have upgraded the O-line however (Kelemete, Henderson and Rankin).

 

Do we really have to start taking Miller seriously again?  He was certainly disappointing last season (around RB#20 PPG in PPR).  One problem was he only scored 6 times, 3 of those coming through the air.  However, in 4 games with Watson, Miller averaged 18 PPG in PPR, which over a full season is Melvin Gordon/Mark Ingram territory.  With a full dose of recency bias, are we looking at a bit of a value here in 2018?

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He was awful.  The more I watched him, the more I was disappointed in his running.

 

I'd expect them to try and bring in some UDFA guys, FA (Anderson, Murray, Darkwa), or make trades for guys on overloaded teams at RB (Ware from KC and Abdullah from DET come to mind. This is complete speculation on those two).

 

If he is the workhorse, sure, with Watson at QB he would be useful.  I didn't see much I liked out of him last year other than volume, and that really only happened once Foreman went down.

Edited by Sternes

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Did not like him last year, but this year is different. Depressed ADP, Foreman most likely not going to return to form with Achilles injury, just Alfred Blue returning and a very good offense? I’ll buy if I’m going RB’s in the round he’s drafted in. 

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17 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I know the Texans did not have much draft capital, but they added no one to the RB room.  They have upgraded the O-line however (Kelemete, Henderson and Rankin).

 

Do we really have to start taking Miller seriously again?  He was certainly disappointing last season (around RB#20 PPG in PPR).  One problem was he only scored 6 times, 3 of those coming through the air.  However, in 4 games with Watson, Miller averaged 18 PPG in PPR, which over a full season is Melvin Gordon/Mark Ingram territory.  With a full dose of recency bias, are we looking at a bit of a value here in 2018?

 

 

I had high hopes for him taking him as my rb3 after gurley/hyde last year

He was so consistent and predictable with his weekly points that he never made it off my bench after week 1 and I could never get a fair trade going for him. I finally dropped him to the waiver week 14.

Edited by dashoe

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17 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I know the Texans did not have much draft capital, but they added no one to the RB room.  They have upgraded the O-line however (Kelemete, Henderson and Rankin).

 

Do we really have to start taking Miller seriously again?  He was certainly disappointing last season (around RB#20 PPG in PPR).  One problem was he only scored 6 times, 3 of those coming through the air.  However, in 4 games with Watson, Miller averaged 18 PPG in PPR, which over a full season is Melvin Gordon/Mark Ingram territory.  With a full dose of recency bias, are we looking at a bit of a value here in 2018?

Pending other signings -   Yeah.

 

  He’ll be cheap and if Watson is half as good as we think, rb2 is almost a given...with top 15 upside.   Call me crazy

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

He was so consistent and predictable with his weekly points that he never made it off my bench after week 1 and I could never get a fair trade going for him. I finally dropped him to the waiver week 14.

 

Lots of folks (fortunately not me) had

that experience.   But what about Miller's four week stretch with Watson?  Miller was super productive when the offense was rolling.  Doesn't that data point bode well for Miller if we assume we will get a full year of Watson?

 

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8 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Lots of folks (fortunately not me) had

that experience.   But what about Miller's four week stretch with Watson?  Miller was super productive when the offense was rolling.  Doesn't that data point bode well for Miller if we assume we will get a full year of Watson?

 

 

 he was a pick because of volume  but Donta foreman was always in the wings to reduce that volume until he was injured.  I suspect the same impending threat of donta will be there again. 

I also didnt like the fact that miller IS NOT used enough in the passing game for PPR when it is clear he should be and that was even with watson as QB. The kid was  only looking to chuck the ball down the field as he bot time with his legs.  Even in those games miller was barely an option and his point totlas were not significant relative to the fantasy production of watson-fuller-hopkins

Hard pass for me this year as I predict more of the same frustrations from last season owning him

Edited by dashoe
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34 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

With a full dose of recency bias, are we looking at a bit of a value here in 2018?

 

15 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

He’ll be cheap and if Watson is half as good as we think, rb2 is almost a given...with top 15 upside.   Call me crazy

 

Foreman starting on PUP too.  With Watson, Miller is the new Alfred Morris -- completely unsexy, completely dependable, definition of a safe floor player that turns out to be a good pick.

 

Just wonder when the right time to draft him is.  In the 3rd I might want some higher upside like Michel, Penny, Jamaal Williams, maybe even Marlon Mack (assuming Luck is on track).  But you can't really go wrong with Miller.  Just be sure to get Foreman before he returns.

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15 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Just wonder when the right time to draft him is.

 

I think we'll be looking at late 4th round, early 5th.

Miller is, exactly as you stated, boring but productive.  On a weekly basis he's a low end RB2, but he does it consistently for 16 weeks, which usually results in a high-mid RB2 at season's end.  He's likely going to be ranked (RB) between 18-24 on most people's boards I'm guessing.  In PPR I'm thinking about 18-21 WRs I'd have above him or at least in the same tier, dependent on what I did the previous 4 rounds.  At least 3 TEs, and probably 2 QBs ahead of him as well, we're looking at what... 41-51 overall based on your personal preference?  So yeah, late 4th, early 5th sounds right to me for a 12 team PPR league.

 

3rd round would be a blatant reach in my opinion.  4th round is where your draft position dictates whether you have to take him at market value, and people in the front of the draft, can potentially 'wait' and see if he falls back to them after the wrap of the 5th round and get him at a value.

 

As of today he sits 50th overall on FFCalc, surrounded by names like Brandin Cooks, D.Thomas, Jimmy Graham, and Carlos Hyde.  I think a valid argument can be made both ways for each of those names, but I'd likely have him 4th when considering ceilings and ranges of outcomes.  (Cooks, Graham, Hyde, Miller, DT in order) Cooks and Graham both offer significantly more upside I'd say.  Hyde I feel is a better back, but in a worse scenario, with more competition, and more injury risk.  Realistically though, Hyde was a top 10 back on the 1-10 9ers last year before Jimmy G ever showed up, so I could argue the Browns is actually an upgrade, but Duke/Chubb prevent that.

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16 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

I think we'll be looking at late 4th round, early 5th.

Miller is, exactly as you stated, boring but productive.  On a weekly basis he's a low end RB2, but he does it consistently for 16 weeks, which usually results in a high-mid RB2 at season's end.  He's likely going to be ranked (RB) between 18-24 on most people's boards I'm guessing.  In PPR I'm thinking about 18-21 WRs I'd have above him or at least in the same tier, dependent on what I did the previous 4 rounds.  At least 3 TEs, and probably 2 QBs ahead of him as well, we're looking at what... 41-51 overall based on your personal preference?  So yeah, late 4th, early 5th sounds right to me for a 12 team PPR league.

 

3rd round would be a blatant reach in my opinion.  4th round is where your draft position dictates whether you have to take him at market value, and people in the front of the draft, can potentially 'wait' and see if he falls back to them after the wrap of the 5th round and get him at a value.

 

As of today he sits 50th overall on FFCalc, surrounded by names like Brandin Cooks, D.Thomas, Jimmy Graham, and Carlos Hyde.  I think a valid argument can be made both ways for each of those names, but I'd likely have him 4th when considering ceilings and ranges of outcomes.  (Cooks, Graham, Hyde, Miller, DT in order) Cooks and Graham both offer significantly more upside I'd say.  Hyde I feel is a better back, but in a worse scenario, with more competition, and more injury risk.  Realistically though, Hyde was a top 10 back on the 1-10 9ers last year before Jimmy G ever showed up, so I could argue the Browns is actually an upgrade, but Duke/Chubb prevent that.

 

1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

 

Foreman starting on PUP too.  With Watson, Miller is the new Alfred Morris -- completely unsexy, completely dependable, definition of a safe floor player that turns out to be a good pick.

 

Just wonder when the right time to draft him is.  In the 3rd I might want some higher upside like Michel, Penny, Jamaal Williams, maybe even Marlon Mack (assuming Luck is on track).  But you can't really go wrong with Miller.  Just be sure to get Foreman before he returns.

 

X3 

good points all around.   The fourth seems like a fair estimate if all is status quo. 

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

Foreman starting on PUP too

I don't think that's been set in stone just yet.  I know it's a possibility.

 

Either way, He should completely wrestle this job away from Miller at some point this season.  I'd wager sooner rather than later.

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9 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I don't think that's been set in stone just yet.  I know it's a possibility.

 

Either way, He should completely wrestle this job away from Miller at some point this season.  I'd wager sooner rather than later.

 

Agree with this.  If i'm grabbing Miller, then Foreman is one of the few cuffs ill stash immediately.  I think he's the better RB for that team, and when he's healthy the keys will be his.

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1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Lots of folks (fortunately not me) had

that experience.   But what about Miller's four week stretch with Watson?  Miller was super productive when the offense was rolling.  Doesn't that data point bode well for Miller if we assume we will get a full year of Watson?

 

 

Yes it does. He's an RB1 IMO...get him now while people still think his backup with a torn Achilles is going to eat into his workload.

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4 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Yes it does. He's an RB1 IMO...

 

lol

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2017 Weeks 3-8, when Watson tore the world apart, Lamar Miller's standard output: 6.3, 25.1, 8.9, 8.1, 19.3.  Averaged 13.5 ppg.   That's fantasy RB1 output.

 

Small sample, Watson probably doesn't repeat, and Foreman probably eats more this year.  Still just food for thought.

 

(I'm not saying Miller will be an RB1 this year).

 

Edited by Lord_Varys
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DJ

Freeman

Shady

CMC

Howard

Mixon

Zeke

Fournette

Hunt

Gordon

Gurley

Cook

Barkley

Bell

 

No particular order, but that's 14 RB's that I have a hard to impossible time seeing Miller finish in front of in PPR.  There's several more I didn't list who i'd say are on equal terms.  Maybe a high end RB2 at best.  And Foreman WILL eat into that workload.  When both were healthy last year he was getting more snaps every week.

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He didn't have a single 100-yard game and averaged 3.7 ypc.

 

Foreman had all but replaced him Week 11 before his injury, rumbling for 65 yards and two touchdowns at halftime.  Miller finished that game with a solid 22 for 61 line.

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1 minute ago, Lord_Varys said:

2017 Weeks 3-8, when Watson tore the world apart, Lamar Miller's standard output: 6.3, 25.1, 8.9, 8.1, 19.3.  Averaged 13.5 ppg.   That's fantasy RB1 output.

 

Small sample, Watson probably doesn't repeat, and Foreman probably eats more this year.  Still just food for thought.

 

(I'm not saying Miller will be an RB1 this year).

 

 

That average is, but only 2 of those 5 weeks had RB1 production.  He probably helped contribute to peoples losses those other 3 weeks.

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34 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I don't think that's been set in stone just yet.  I know it's a possibility.

 

Either way, He should completely wrestle this job away from Miller at some point this season.  I'd wager sooner rather than later.

 

24 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

Agree with this.  If i'm grabbing Miller, then Foreman is one of the few cuffs ill stash immediately.  I think he's the better RB for that team, and when he's healthy the keys will be his.

 

While LMiller's demonstrated talent is debatable, I'd suggest the same with Foreman's: I have yet to see solid performance from Foreman that makes his dominance in the time-share evident; I find Foreman underwhelming.

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11 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

He didn't have a single 100-yard game and averaged 3.7 ypc.

 

Foreman had all but replaced him Week 11 before his injury, rumbling for 65 yards and two touchdowns at halftime.  Miller finished that game with a solid 22 for 61 line.

 

Ah I see.  So we’re taking a season’s worth of data to evaluate Miller, and a half of a game worth to evaluate Foreman.    Tells the whole story clearly    

 

Edited by Impreza178

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9 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

That average is, but only 2 of those 5 weeks had RB1 production.  He probably helped contribute to peoples losses those other 3 weeks.

 

 I had him on my roster the entire reg season, the averages are decieving.  Donanta lurking in the backgronund was cutting into his volume, the offense couldnt score td and most importantly in ppr he WAS NOT getting any significant passing work to juice up his numbers.  Dhop becomes a ppr stud even without watson and lama r couldnt get a sniff of relevancy. The 2 games he did well with watson as QB were literally afterthought plays because the kid wasnt even loooking for him, he was locked into hopkins every play.

 

I got sucked into owning him because those volumes looked tasty and turmed out they were spoiled. Don't be fooled by the averages look at his actual games.

:)

Edited by dashoe
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10 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Ah I see.  So we’re taking a season’s worth of data to evaluate Miller, and a half of a game worth to evaluate Foreman.    Tells the whole story clearly    

 

That's really all I needed to see.  I've already seen two years of mediocrity in Houston from Lamar Miller.  I saw a rookie, who had already flashed with limited touches, relegate the incumbent to a spectator and look more impressive on one drive than Miller has looked in two years.  Lamar had ten games last year with 15+ touches and failed to have a single 100-yard game.  Three rushing touchdowns.  His fantasy year was salvaged by a couple big plays on receptions.

 

I hope he is drafted as a RB1 this year, though.  Leave the worthy players on the board.

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25 minutes ago, kdko said:

DJ

Freeman

Shady

CMC

Howard

Mixon

Zeke

Fournette

Hunt

Gordon

Gurley

Cook

Barkley

Bell

 

No particular order, but that's 14 RB's that I have a hard to impossible time seeing Miller finish in front of in PPR.  There's several more I didn't list who i'd say are on equal terms.  Maybe a high end RB2 at best.  And Foreman WILL eat into that workload.  When both were healthy last year he was getting more snaps every week.

 

I'd take Miller over Shady, Cook, Freeman, Gordon, and Howard right now. Way too many butthurt owners who expected top-5 RB numbers despite horrendous QB play. 

 

I won't say anymore...please keep hating on him. Thanks. 

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3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

I'd take Miller over Shady, Cook, Freeman, Gordon, and Howard right now. Way too many butthurt owners who expected top-5 RB numbers despite horrendous QB play.

 

Move to the bold predictions thread?

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