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Lamar Miller 2018 Outlook

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Great game last night for Miller but I found myself getting greedy and disappointed that he didn't have another TD.  

 

Also...am I imagining it or is their offense very predictable?    Seems like they ran the ball on 1st down every time and then almost always passed if they had more than 5 yards to go for a first down.    Would like to see some delayed handoffs or some screens.   

 

Although I guess from a real life football standpoint, they did OK.

Edited by K197040

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He's a hold unless you get a decent RB2 return for him, which is very likely not going to happen. In truth, he's been way to mediocre for much of his career to rely on for the entire rest of the reason. Can't discount a below average body of work simply based off of two good performances stemming from positive game-scripts and lackluster opponents. Dolphins are atrocious at protecting against the run and the Jaguars aren't that good at stopping it either - they were also a total mess after reeling hard from some bad losses. Miller will kill it against the Broncos again, and then it becomes iffy after that.

 

His value will probably fall of a cliff after the bye week as he faces formidable run D's against the Redskins and Titans. 

With that being said he has Browns, Colts, Jets weeks 13-15, so he'll be a decent flex option then, which is what makes him worth holding in case you don't get anything interesting in return for him.

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Could have had a much bigger night had the Dolphins been able to stay in it. He did have 2 more RZ carries int he 2nd half, but when Watson was throwing bombs every other play they didn't have to run out the clock in the 3rd/early 4th. I'm holding and will be rotating him into my RB2/Flex depending on matchup from here on out.

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3 hours ago, scheibler said:

Sell high if u can we've been down this road

This isn't a bad idea if you can upgrade at RB or get a WR1, but if you are trading laterally for a WR/RB it is a bad idea. RB is such a wasteland this season, that the ones that have a stranglehold of the job for their team are very valuable. So if you do sell high you better be getting premium value. Unfortunately I doubt many view Lamar Miller as having premium value.

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1 hour ago, K197040 said:

Great game last night for Miller but I found myself getting greedy and disappointed that he didn't have another TD.  

 

Also...am I imagining it or is their offense very predictable?    Seems like they ran the ball on 1st down every time and then almost always passed if they had more than 5 yards to go for a first down.    Would like to see some delayed handoffs or some screens.   

 

Although I guess from a real life football standpoint, they did OK.

Lmao I’m a Texans fan and this is what I see week in and week out. BOB is a terrible oc and I find it hilarious that it only took one prime time game for others to notice. I wish he’d get fired but it’s not gonna happen cause Watson is too talented and will bail him out. Pretty much Mike McCarthy but in Houston 

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1 hour ago, thirdeye said:

Could have had a much bigger night had the Dolphins been able to stay in it. He did have 2 more RZ carries int he 2nd half, but when Watson was throwing bombs every other play they didn't have to run out the clock in the 3rd/early 4th. I'm holding and will be rotating him into my RB2/Flex depending on matchup from here on out.

 

dolphins were in it for three quarters (helped by the bounce-pass to parker), until the long TD passes to nuk and fuller, and then another short td to nuk.

 

i can see the inclination to hold, but i would sell if i could upgrade at a needed position. he's on the block for me, and it's not that i'm worried about foreman returning from an achilles, more that miller's at a high-point and i don't see it getting better: i don't like the matchup vs washington, the browns, the jaguars, the eagles, the titans, and the colts (if sheard and the colts LBs are healthy).

 

for sale

giphy.gif

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1 hour ago, J Boogie said:

He's a hold unless you get a decent RB2 return for him, which is very likely not going to happen. In truth, he's been way to mediocre for much of his career to rely on for the entire rest of the reason. Can't discount a below average body of work simply based off of two good performances stemming from positive game-scripts and lackluster opponents. Dolphins are atrocious at protecting against the run and the Jaguars aren't that good at stopping it either - they were also a total mess after reeling hard from some bad losses. Miller will kill it against the Broncos again, and then it becomes iffy after that.

 

His value will probably fall of a cliff after the bye week as he faces formidable run D's against the Redskins and Titans. 

With that being said he has Browns, Colts, Jets weeks 13-15, so he'll be a decent flex option then, which is what makes him worth holding in case you don't get anything interesting in return for him.

 

What you, and others, aren't taking into consideration is that Watson is just starting to get right. The whole offense will get better and more TDs will come.

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10 minutes ago, Boozted said:

Lmao I’m a Texans fan and this is what I see week in and week out. BOB is a terrible oc and I find it hilarious that it only took one prime time game for others to notice. I wish he’d get fired but it’s not gonna happen cause Watson is too talented and will bail him out. Pretty much Mike McCarthy but in Houston 


I'm a Texans fan too. 

 

Texans are a terribly run team and franchise generally. 

It was classic Texans last night when the game started and the Texans kicked off and Miami was forced to start at the 18... but due to a penalty the Texans decided to rekick and Miami ended up starting at the 30... I don't know how anyone could reasonably expect better field position than forcing the other team to start at the 18 from a kick off... wtf. 

Edited by HTM
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Just now, HTM said:


I'm a Texans fan too. 

 

Texans are a terribly run team and franchise generally. 

It was classic Texans last night when the game started and the Texans kicked off and Miami was forced to start at the 18... but due to a penalty the Texans decided to rekick and Miami ended up starting at the 30... I don't know how anyone could reasonably expect better field position than forcing the other team to start at the 18 from a kick off... wtf. 

 

LOL, was switching between Celtics and the game and missed that. That's hilarious.

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2 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

What you, and others, aren't taking into consideration is that Watson is just starting to get right. The whole offense will get better and more TDs will come.

exactly

 

last season, lamar's splits with watson 15 ff ppg, without was around 8-9 ppg IIRC

 

that wasnt happening earlier this season but their offense wasn't what it was last season with watson...maybe he was still getting 100% healthy, who knows, but things are looking up. i wouldn't sell now. would consider selling later though but i'd rather have the known quantity with the safe floor

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12 minutes ago, HTM said:


I'm a Texans fan too. 

 

Texans are a terribly run team and franchise generally. 

It was classic Texans last night when the game started and the Texans kicked off and Miami was forced to start at the 18... but due to a penalty the Texans decided to rekick and Miami ended up starting at the 30... I don't know how anyone could reasonably expect better field position than forcing the other team to start at the 18 from a kick off... wtf. 

 

From what I understand, the Texans weren't supposed to have the option of starting Miami at the 18.   The officials initially misunderstood the rule and had to correctly enforce it by a re-kick.

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14 minutes ago, HTM said:


I'm a Texans fan too. 

 

Texans are a terribly run team and franchise generally. 

It was classic Texans last night when the game started and the Texans kicked off and Miami was forced to start at the 18... but due to a penalty the Texans decided to rekick and Miami ended up starting at the 30... I don't know how anyone could reasonably expect better field position than forcing the other team to start at the 18 from a kick off... wtf. 

Jesus what a moron

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33 minutes ago, HTM said:


I'm a Texans fan too. 

 

Texans are a terribly run team and franchise generally. 

It was classic Texans last night when the game started and the Texans kicked off and Miami was forced to start at the 18... but due to a penalty the Texans decided to rekick and Miami ended up starting at the 30... I don't know how anyone could reasonably expect better field position than forcing the other team to start at the 18 from a kick off... wtf. 

I may not have been fully paying attention but I didn't recall the refs giving a choice about a re kicking.  The whole thing was dumb, as was the end of the half call making everyone come back out of the tunnel to take a knee.

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16 minutes ago, Kyle87 said:

I may not have been fully paying attention but I didn't recall the refs giving a choice about a re kicking.  The whole thing was dumb, as was the end of the half call making everyone come back out of the tunnel to take a knee.

 

You are right, they didn't give them a choice at all. It was a mandatory re-kick. Those in here claiming it was Bill O-Brien's choice because he wanted a re-kick instead of having Miami start at their own 18 are misinformed and literally making stuff up or some reason.

 

There was a penalty due to Miami not having 8 men in the box, so it required Houston to rekick. That simple, nothing to do with BOB decision making.

 

All of that said, I am not a Houston fan at all and have no bias towards him or the Texans, I just don't like when people pronounce things as fact and start spreading bull**** causes a mass false opinion based on nothing.

 

People should understand what they are talking about before they talk about it.  

Edited by Godfather131
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36 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

From what I understand, the Texans weren't supposed to have the option of starting Miami at the 18.   The officials initially misunderstood the rule and had to correctly enforce it by a re-kick.

 

Maybe so.. I'm not sure.. my understanding was that Miami brought the ball out to the 23... had a 5 yard penalty of some sort that would have pushed them back to the 18 but then the Texans ended up re-kicking and the Dolphins ended up starting from the 30. I was under the impression it was because the Texans decided to re-kick but I could be wrong. 

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2 minutes ago, Godfather131 said:

 

You are right, they didn't give them a choice at all. It was a mandatory re-kick. Those in here claiming it was Bill O-Brien's choice because he wanted a re-kick instead of having Miami start at their own 18 are misinformed and literally making stuff up or some reason.

 

There was a penalty due to Miami not having 8 men in the box, so it required Houston to rekick. That simple, nothing to do with BOB decision making.

 

All of that said, I am not a Houston fan at all and have no bias towards him or the Texans, I just don't like when people pronounce things as fact and start spreading bull**** causes a mass false opinion based on nothing.

 

People should understand what they are talking about before they talk about it.  

 

lol ok cool. I watched what happened and that was what explained at the time. 

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9 hours ago, J Boogie said:

 

His value will probably fall of a cliff after the bye week as he faces formidable run D's against the Redskins and Titans. 

With that being said he has Browns, Colts, Jets weeks 13-15, so he'll be a decent flex option then, which is what makes him worth holding in case you don't get anything interesting in return for him.

 

The Titans have a mediocre run defense.

 

With so many tasty matchups up-coming, I think this is the time you should be looking to acquire him, if possible.  Maybe the Miller owner in your league is down on him the same way many posters in this thread are, and you can steal him.

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23 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

The Titans have a mediocre run defense.

 

With so many tasty matchups up-coming, I think this is the time you should be looking to acquire him, if possible.  Maybe the Miller owner in your league is down on him the same way many posters in this thread are, and you can steal him.

 

Titans have given up the third least fantasy points to RBs fwiw.

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1 minute ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Titans have given up the third least fantasy points to RBs fwiw.

 

They also have given up a total of 786 rushing yards - good for 20th in the league.

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

They also have given up a total of 786 rushing yards - good for 20th in the league.

 

Well it is a fantasy football forum.

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6 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Well it is a fantasy football forum.

 

Ha!  I hear you, man.  But “fantasy points allowed” really isn’t going to give you an accurate gauge of how a defensive unit is performing.

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5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

Ha!  I hear you, man.  But “fantasy points allowed” really isn’t going to give you an accurate gauge of how a defensive unit is performing.

 

It is going to give you a really accurate gauge on how they are performing within the context of fantasy football.

 

And again; fantasy football forum.

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10 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

It is going to give you a really accurate gauge on how they are performing within the context of fantasy football.

 

And again; fantasy football forum.

 

Agreed - this is that.  But the problem with the “fantasy points allowed” metric is it doesn’t account for why the defense hasn’t given up fantasy points to the position: e.g., have opponents just scored most of their TDs through the air so far?  It’s not predictive.  Anyone who has even casually followed the Titans this year can see that their offense is inept at the moment - forcing the defense to do too much and get worn out too quickly.  Even if this were a good unit on paper, it would still be underperforming for that reason alone.

 

Bottom line - and again, from a fantasy perspective - you shouldn’t be benching an RB just because he’s facing the Tennessee Titans.

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On 10/26/2018 at 9:05 PM, BMcP said:

 

Agreed - this is that.  But the problem with the “fantasy points allowed” metric is it doesn’t account for why the defense hasn’t given up fantasy points to the position: e.g., have opponents just scored most of their TDs through the air so far?  It’s not predictive.  Anyone who has even casually followed the Titans this year can see that their offense is inept at the moment - forcing the defense to do too much and get worn out too quickly.  Even if this were a good unit on paper, it would still be underperforming for that reason alone.

 

Bottom line - and again, from a fantasy perspective - you shouldn’t be benching an RB just because he’s facing the Tennessee Titans.

 

 

Well that also shows that they're good at stopping it in the red zone too, which is definitely backed up by the stats. So yes, even if the offense is inept and keeping them on the field way more often than not, they're still performing well. Titans have definitely have a more than capable defensive line and have been tough on RBs for a while now.

 

Point is Lamar Miller has two good games against a reeling Jaguars team and absolutely atrocious run defense in Miami. Other than that what else has workhorse role yielded in terms of results? More or less its been mediocrity sprinkled in with a good performance here and there. Let's not even mention how terrible that Texans offensive line is. He's got the Broncos coming up, which he should shred, but if your capable of capitalizing on that performance and parlaying him into a more consistent, high-upside option, why not? Most likely no one is going to bite and give you a fair return, so it obviously makes sense holding on to him. As mentioned before, from weeks 13-15 he looks to be a good option. 

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