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11 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Feel free read to my post that way, especially if fuels your take on the McKinnon signing.  When enough returns are in (we won't need the whole season), I will explain what you missed (hint, it's already laid out in the McKinnon thread).

 

In the meantime though, don't be deterred (not that I believe you ever would be).  Last off-season's "Gurley is a JAG, scrub, etc." club had its cock-sure spokesperson too (you can visit the early pages of the 2017 Gurley thread to find out who that was).  That spokesperson was certain as well that no change of circumstance could boost that player's fortunes. This off-sason, it is great that the "McKinnon is a JAG, scrub etc." club now has it's immodest spokesperson.  Makes the inevitable post-mortem so much easier and fun.

 

 

 

 

 

Again, this is NOT the same as Gurley. 

 

We're talking about a 26 year old RB here who has never put up top 10 numbers. He has a career 4.0 YPC, and has more than ample opportunity to take hold of the Viking's lead back role on multiple occasions. 

 

He's also gone to a pretty average offense in my opinion. There's a lot of hype around Jimmy G, but I'm not a fan of the offensive talent. Garçon, Goodwin, Kittle, McKinnon. Very uninspiring group of players. 

 

The only way McK returns value on his ADP is if he has 60+ receptions. Still...I doubt the rushing yards and TDs are there to back this up. 

 

You can feel free to quote me when the dust settles if that's your thing. 

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

He's also gone to a pretty average offense in my opinion. There's a lot of hype around Jimmy G, but I'm not a fan of the offensive talent. Garçon, Goodwin, Kittle, McKinnon. Very uninspiring group of players. 

 

How is it that that uninspiring group sans Garcon, and with Jimmy G. fresh off the bus, hung 44 pts on the 2nd best D in week 16 in a game JAX had to win?  The answer will lead you to new, greener pastures.

 

For some reason, you're reluctant to scratch below the surface on this one.  That's fine.  Don't let me inject any doubt into your normally self-sure position.  Once  a JAG or scrub, always a JAG or scrub, right?

 

In any event, the discussion is likely to be far more interesting and focused when the returns are in (for both the offense and the player).

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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These Roto reports coming out for Jones and Booker are really changing the outlook for these rookies 

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2 minutes ago, boshtrich17 said:

These Roto reports coming out for Jones and Booker are really changing the outlook for these rookies 

It's June. I bet these situations look different in August. I'd be shocked if Barber forces his way into the picture and Booker is bad, Freeman should emerge. Of course, the rookies are unproven too. 

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2 hours ago, boshtrich17 said:

These Roto reports coming out for Jones and Booker are really changing the outlook for these rookies 

It's really all conjecture at this point.  They like Barber, and he played surprisingly well last year for a stretch.  I wouldn't expect the team to immediately come out and anoint Jones the three-down role before pads are even put on.  Bottom line, they took him with high draft capital to be their answer at the position.  It's really up to him at this point to put it all together.

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11 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If by JStew Vol II you mean Aliens from 1986, a sequal that was better than the original.

I don't know how this post got passed me. 

 

Alien and Aliens are in my top 10 favorite films of all time. 

 

While Aliens is one of the best action movies ever made, the original film is still more compelling IMO. 

 

I hate that Jstew and CJ Anderson have now been compared to them. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

It's really all conjecture at this point.  They like Barber, and he played surprisingly well last year for a stretch.  I wouldn't expect the team to immediately come out and anoint Jones the three-down role before pads are even put on.  Bottom line, they took him with high draft capital to be their answer at the position.  It's really up to him at this point to put it all together.

 

Tampa's Director of Player Personnel John Spytek joined GMF this morning.  He talked up Jones alot.  Didn't mention Barber once.  If Barber has been surprising folks, I would expect a brief mention, at least.  Curious.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder

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My top 20 in standard:

 

1. Elliot

2. Johnson

3. Bell

4. Gurley

5. Barkley

6. Kamara

7. Fournette

8. Cook

9. Gordon

10. Hunt

11. Howard

12. Shady

13. Freeman

14. Mixon

15. Penny

16. Guice

17. CMC

18. Henry

19. McKinnon

20. Miller

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

My top 20 in standard:

 

1. Elliot

2. Johnson

3. Bell

4. Gurley

5. Barkley

6. Kamara

7. Fournette

8. Cook

9. Gordon

10. Hunt

11. Howard

12. Shady

13. Freeman

14. Mixon

15. Penny

16. Guice

17. CMC

18. Henry

19. McKinnon

20. Miller


Good list... you're bucking a lot of the traditional "expert" thought this year. 

Why do you think Elliot over Johnson, Bell, Gurley?

Also, why McCaffrey under Mixon, Penny, Guice?

Edited by ponza88

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14 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I don't know how this post got passed me. 

 

Alien and Aliens are in my top 10 favorite films of all time. 

 

While Aliens is one of the best action movies ever made, the original film is still more compelling IMO. 

 

I hate that Jstew and CJ Anderson have now been compared to them. 

Maybe it should be Breakin' 2: Electric Boogaloo, instead.

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4 hours ago, ponza88 said:


Good list... you're bucking a lot of the traditional "expert" thought this year. 

Why do you think Elliot over Johnson, Bell, Gurley?

Also, why McCaffrey under Mixon, Penny, Guice?

Elliot is the safest option out of all of them. It’s really difficult to find any concern. Bell has been run into the ground and Johnson has the entire offense around him a question. With Gurley, it just seems like last season was an anomaly for the offense. It’s not that the offense isn’t good but rather they’re not first overall good. I expect a solid regression. Elliot didn’t play much last year and will come out hungry on a team that really wants to use him. In the end, it’s all very close.

 

With CMC, CJA is being somewhat underestimated. In standard, usage and TDS are more important for consistency and Mixon as well as Penny have a legitimate Bellcow opportunity while Guice will be fed the ball a ton including inside the 10. Just seems like those guys have a much higher ceiling along with more opportunity.

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40 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Elliot is the safest option out of all of them. It’s really difficult to find any concern. Bell has been run into the ground and Johnson has the entire offense around him a question. With Gurley, it just seems like last season was an anomaly for the offense. It’s not that the offense isn’t good but rather they’re not first overall good. I expect a solid regression. Elliot didn’t play much last year and will come out hungry on a team that really wants to use him. In the end, it’s all very close.

 

With CMC, CJA is being somewhat underestimated. In standard, usage and TDS are more important for consistency and Mixon as well as Penny have a legitimate Bellcow opportunity while Guice will be fed the ball a ton including inside the 10. Just seems like those guys have a much higher ceiling along with more opportunity.

How much worse is the situation for DJ compared to zeke really? I mean, Arizona went 8-8 without DJ

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

How much worse is the situation for DJ compared to zeke really? I mean, Arizona went 8-8 without DJ

 

OL is trash.

Rookie QB or Bradford -- don't know how well they'll connect with DJ.

Lost Arians, a great coach.

Fitz is good but WRs after that ...?

And I think Dallas might actually have a better defense.

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18 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

How much worse is the situation for DJ compared to zeke really? I mean, Arizona went 8-8 without DJ

Well, let's compare them. 

 

First, you have the offensive line which may be the most important part to the success of a RB. The Cowboys are right where they have been with a top 5 line and almost certainly a top 3 line. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are fully on the opposite side with one of the worst lines in football. Next, you have the entire QB situation. I don't think Dak is a good QB. In fact, he is underwhelming when you consider being able to produce at the expected level in todays NFL. However, he is a great QB in relation to production of Zeke. He is a good enough game manager where they won't consistently fail to move the ball but not good enough to where htye will air it out. This will create a great opportunity for Zeke to get production while also having opportunity to score. Cardinals have a QB that won't last and a rookie. This is another huge question mark. You also have to factor in the loss of a coach who was very good for DJs skill set.

 

I've been a huge supporter of DJ and all the above speaks immense volume to his talent that he can still be in the top 5 of almost every ranking. He is a great back that will certainly get his. However, he faces questions in regards to his surrounded that Elliot simply does not have. 

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13 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Well, let's compare them. 

 

First, you have the offensive line which may be the most important part to the success of a RB. The Cowboys are right where they have been with a top 5 line and almost certainly a top 3 line. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are fully on the opposite side with one of the worst lines in football. Next, you have the entire QB situation. I don't think Dak is a good QB. In fact, he is underwhelming when you consider being able to produce at the expected level in todays NFL. However, he is a great QB in relation to production of Zeke. He is a good enough game manager where they won't consistently fail to move the ball but not good enough to where htye will air it out. This will create a great opportunity for Zeke to get production while also having opportunity to score. Cardinals have a QB that won't last and a rookie. This is another huge question mark. You also have to factor in the loss of a coach who was very good for DJs skill set.

 

I've been a huge supporter of DJ and all the above speaks immense volume to his talent that he can still be in the top 5 of almost every ranking. He is a great back that will certainly get his. However, he faces questions in regards to his surrounded that Elliot simply does not have. 

That’s all very fair.    I think they are a wash for the most part- with a few differences 

 

DJ is a more established pass catcher 

he’s not a knucklehead

proven performer without any qb and minimal line play.  

 

Zeke has a better line 

Hes an immense talent that feels like we’ve just scratched the surface 

 

 

I’m generally taking Gurley and Bell before either 

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18 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

That’s all very fair.    I think they are a wash for the most part- with a few differences 

 

DJ is a more established pass catcher 

he’s not a knucklehead

proven performer without any qb and minimal line play.  

 

Zeke has a better line 

Hes an immense talent that feels like we’ve just scratched the surface 

 

 

I’m generally taking Gurley and Bell before either 

I honestly don't feel like Zeke being a knucklehead is a detriment to his production. I understand he got suspended but that was an absolutely ridiculous suspension and i don't particuarly like thw Cowboys. Goodell is a power hungry SOB that likes to make examples of the powerhouses (Cowboys and NE). I remember last year there were people posting how Gurley likes to turn up as a reason to not draft him. Worked out well...

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6 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I honestly don't feel like Zeke being a knucklehead is a detriment to his production. I understand he got suspended but that was an absolutely ridiculous suspension and i don't particuarly like thw Cowboys. Goodell is a power hungry SOB that likes to make examples of the powerhouses (Cowboys and NE). I remember last year there were people posting how Gurley likes to turn up as a reason to not draft him. Worked out well...

Indeed-   But Goodell isn’t going anywhere-

so weigh it how you will. You’re hoping he won’t mess up again and get a long suspension. 

 

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

I honestly don't feel like Zeke being a knucklehead is a detriment to his production. I understand he got suspended but that was an absolutely ridiculous suspension and i don't particuarly like thw Cowboys. Goodell is a power hungry SOB that likes to make examples of the powerhouses (Cowboys and NE). I remember last year there were people posting how Gurley likes to turn up as a reason to not draft him. Worked out well...

 

That was me and I was just sharing his IG updates, I mentioned this in the Fournette thread but he's following the same exact habits (cars and bottles). I will be taking Fournette at #5 based on this analysis. 

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Can I throw in an underrated latavius Murray? Or is that another thread?

 

i feel he was better than he was treated on RW when he played for Oakland 

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On 6/12/2018 at 4:39 PM, Lord_Varys said:

 

OL is trash.

Rookie QB or Bradford -- don't know how well they'll connect with DJ.

Lost Arians, a great coach.

Fitz is good but WRs after that ...?

And I think Dallas might actually have a better defense.

 

Heck no

 

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Updated My Standard Ranks:

 

Tier 1

1 Zeke - he feels the safest to me behind that OL with an offense built around him and coming off a year where he didn’t get that much overall usage.

2 Todd Gurley - not much to say, young stud in a rising offense built around him

3 David Johnson - the offense scares me but he was so good before the injury + I don’t hate Bradford and Rosen

4 LeVeon Bell - safe to say I won’t be drafting him this year. The age + contract situation + usage is too much risk for me to put him above the other 3 and with these early picks all I care about is managing risk as all these guys have the potential to be RB1

Tier 2

5 Saquan Barkley - elite talent + improved OL + ability as both a runner and receiver + the usage history of RBs taken in the top 5. Seems pretty safe to me with huge upside, even T Rich put up RB1 numbers his rookie year.

Tier 3

6 Leonard Fournette - injuries are worrisome but the OL improved and he was on pace for 329/1280/11 last year. Should get huge usage.

7 Alvin Kamara - the efficiency is going to decline but the talent is transcendent and still has a good floor in the best offense for RBs in the NFL

8 Kareem Hunt - still the RB1 in an Andy Reid offense

9 Melvin Gordon - workhorse in a great offense but very reliant of volume right now

10 Dalvin Cook - on pace for 296/1416/8 before the injury

Tier 4

11 Devonta Freeman - the decline in production is scary but he’s still young + in a productive offense + great OL + has the security of his extension. If the offense rebounds overall so should he

12 Lesean McCoy - produces elite numbers year after year but at some point he’s going to hit a wall and this could be the year in his worst offense yet. Worth the risk to me in the early 3rd

Tier 5

13 Jerrick McKinnon - don’t like the player but hard to ignore the situation

14 Joe Mixon - I’m such a huge fan of his talent but I wish his ADP was a little lower as he hasn’t lost any value after last year

15 Jordan Howard - inconsistent producer game to game but could explode this year in an improved offense or could be excommunicated if he doesn’t fit the scheme

Tier 6

16 Mark Ingram - I’m willing to wait out the 4 games for consistent RB1 production. He was so good last season im betting he retains that role and even if it’s reduced his floor should be solid

17 Kenyan Drake - he looked like the next elite RB in a short sample size last year

18 Derrius Guice - love the player and I actually really like his potential usage even with Thompson there as Gruden should create a productive offense

19 Derrick Henry - not totally buying into the Dion Lewis hype

20 Christian McCaffery - a satellite back on steroids, last years passing game usage doesn’t seem repeatable

21 Ronald Jones - talented starting RB on good offense

22 Rashaad Penny - see above

23 Sony Michel - same as above + not that afraid of NE RBs after the last few years

Tier 7

24 Kerryon Johnson - the overlooked rookie RB. Like the player + walks into a good opportunity in a very productive offense

25 Alex Collins - looked great last year but I’m suspicious + not sure how Dixon is going to fit in

26 Jay Ajayi - really boom/bust RB as he could be the starting RB in a great offense or an unusable committee member. Possible that his usage was down last year because he was still getting acclimated

Tier 8

27 Marlon Mack - taking a shot on one of the best opportunities in the NFL as the RB for Andrew Luck

28 Marshawn Lynch - looked pretty good last year and should be the starting RB behind a very good OL

29 Tevin Coleman - usually solid for flex numbers with elite upside if Freeman goes down

30 Lamar Miller - the last of the starting RBs

Tier 9

31 Jamaal Williams whoever wins this job is a potential league winner

32 Royce Freeman - potential starting RB

33 Dion Lewis - don’t see a ton of upside with Henry guaranteed a role

34 Aaron Jones - see Jamaal Williams

35 Ty Montgomery - see above

36 Carlos Hyde - love the talent but crowded backfield

37 Rex Burkhead - incredibly productive when he played last year

38 CJ Anderson - still like the talent and should be decent scoring opportunities

39 Isiah Crowell - could be starting RB in underrated Jets offense

40 Jordan Wilkins - see Marlon Mack

41 Tarik Cohen - the first of the satellite backs, could maybe have a Tyreek Hill type role in new offense

42 Nick Chubb - starting RB upside

43 Devontae Booker - the DEN job seems pretty wide open

44 Doug Martin - Lynch could break down at any point and Gruden hand picked Martin

45 Nyheim Hines - tons of opportunity in IND in Luck offense

46 Matt Breida - don’t totally trust McKinnon and this is a league winning opportunity if he falls into the job

47 Peyton Barber - performed well when asked to be RB1 last year

48 Kenneth Dixon - potential post hype sleeper and Alex Collins isn’t insurmountable

49 Kalen Ballage - hedge against Drake

50 Gio Bernard - always produces when given the opportunity to handle the load and Mixon is still unproven

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27 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

RB Rankings

Great job!

 

Disagree about Dion Lewis though.

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2 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

Updated My Standard Ranks:

 

Tier 1

1 Zeke - he feels the safest to me behind that OL with an offense built around him and coming off a year where he didn’t get that much overall usage.

2 Todd Gurley - not much to say, young stud in a rising offense built around him

3 David Johnson - the offense scares me but he was so good before the injury + I don’t hate Bradford and Rosen

4 LeVeon Bell - safe to say I won’t be drafting him this year. The age + contract situation + usage is too much risk for me to put him above the other 3 and with these early picks all I care about is managing risk as all these guys have the potential to be RB1

Tier 2

5 Saquan Barkley - elite talent + improved OL + ability as both a runner and receiver + the usage history of RBs taken in the top 5. Seems pretty safe to me with huge upside, even T Rich put up RB1 numbers his rookie year.

Tier 3

6 Leonard Fournette - injuries are worrisome but the OL improved and he was on pace for 329/1280/11 last year. Should get huge usage.

7 Alvin Kamara - the efficiency is going to decline but the talent is transcendent and still has a good floor in the best offense for RBs in the NFL

8 Kareem Hunt - still the RB1 in an Andy Reid offense

9 Melvin Gordon - workhorse in a great offense but very reliant of volume right now

10 Dalvin Cook - on pace for 296/1416/8 before the injury

Tier 4

11 Devonta Freeman - the decline in production is scary but he’s still young + in a productive offense + great OL + has the security of his extension. If the offense rebounds overall so should he

12 Lesean McCoy - produces elite numbers year after year but at some point he’s going to hit a wall and this could be the year in his worst offense yet. Worth the risk to me in the early 3rd

Tier 5

13 Jerrick McKinnon - don’t like the player but hard to ignore the situation

14 Joe Mixon - I’m such a huge fan of his talent but I wish his ADP was a little lower as he hasn’t lost any value after last year

15 Jordan Howard - inconsistent producer game to game but could explode this year in an improved offense or could be excommunicated if he doesn’t fit the scheme

Tier 6

16 Mark Ingram - I’m willing to wait out the 4 games for consistent RB1 production. He was so good last season im betting he retains that role and even if it’s reduced his floor should be solid

17 Kenyan Drake - he looked like the next elite RB in a short sample size last year

18 Derrius Guice - love the player and I actually really like his potential usage even with Thompson there as Gruden should create a productive offense

19 Derrick Henry - not totally buying into the Dion Lewis hype

20 Christian McCaffery - a satellite back on steroids, last years passing game usage doesn’t seem repeatable

21 Ronald Jones - talented starting RB on good offense

22 Rashaad Penny - see above

23 Sony Michel - same as above + not that afraid of NE RBs after the last few years

Tier 7

24 Kerryon Johnson - the overlooked rookie RB. Like the player + walks into a good opportunity in a very productive offense

25 Alex Collins - looked great last year but I’m suspicious + not sure how Dixon is going to fit in

26 Jay Ajayi - really boom/bust RB as he could be the starting RB in a great offense or an unusable committee member. Possible that his usage was down last year because he was still getting acclimated

Tier 8

27 Marlon Mack - taking a shot on one of the best opportunities in the NFL as the RB for Andrew Luck

28 Marshawn Lynch - looked pretty good last year and should be the starting RB behind a very good OL

29 Tevin Coleman - usually solid for flex numbers with elite upside if Freeman goes down

30 Lamar Miller - the last of the starting RBs

Tier 9

31 Jamaal Williams whoever wins this job is a potential league winner

32 Royce Freeman - potential starting RB

33 Dion Lewis - don’t see a ton of upside with Henry guaranteed a role

34 Aaron Jones - see Jamaal Williams

35 Ty Montgomery - see above

36 Carlos Hyde - love the talent but crowded backfield

37 Rex Burkhead - incredibly productive when he played last year

38 CJ Anderson - still like the talent and should be decent scoring opportunities

39 Isiah Crowell - could be starting RB in underrated Jets offense

40 Jordan Wilkins - see Marlon Mack

41 Tarik Cohen - the first of the satellite backs, could maybe have a Tyreek Hill type role in new offense

42 Nick Chubb - starting RB upside

43 Devontae Booker - the DEN job seems pretty wide open

44 Doug Martin - Lynch could break down at any point and Gruden hand picked Martin

45 Nyheim Hines - tons of opportunity in IND in Luck offense

46 Matt Breida - don’t totally trust McKinnon and this is a league winning opportunity if he falls into the job

47 Peyton Barber - performed well when asked to be RB1 last year

48 Kenneth Dixon - potential post hype sleeper and Alex Collins isn’t insurmountable

49 Kalen Ballage - hedge against Drake

50 Gio Bernard - always produces when given the opportunity to handle the load and Mixon is still unproven

Solid list especially when factoring in its for standard and not PPR. However, I think Ajayi and Miller deserve to be in tier 6 based off the offenses they are in. Sproles in back and Blount out as well as getting a full offseason to be better integrated should only help Ajayi, I think last season is his floor. Foreman was a major threat to Miller but achilles injury are career altering and players are rarely the same athlete afterward. Miller is a 3 down back and with how explosive that Houston offense can be with a healthy Watson even if you don't like Miller that role alone will make it tough not to return RB2 numbers. 

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3 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

Solid list especially when factoring in its for standard and not PPR. However, I think Ajayi and Miller deserve to be in tier 6 based off the offenses they are in. Sproles in back and Blount out as well as getting a full offseason to be better integrated should only help Ajayi, I think last season is his floor. Foreman was a major threat to Miller but achilles injury are career altering and players are rarely the same athlete afterward. Miller is a 3 down back and with how explosive that Houston offense can be with a healthy Watson even if you don't like Miller that role alone will make it tough not to return RB2 numbers. 

 

I love Miller’s opportunity but he looked awful

last year and im not confident he can even fend off Alfred Blue.  I remember games where the coaches were playing Blue over Miller later in the season.  Plus I’m wagering on a pretty big Watson regression.

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