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NYR Fan 116894

Marlon Mack 2018 Outlook

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Frank Gore was RB12 in standard in both 2016 and 2015 with Luck.

 

Trying to figure out why Mack isn't a top 15 RB, if Luck is full go, and I can't.  5'11" 209 is decent size, he's explosive, he has no competition, the OL gets healthy plus a huge upgrade, they'll probably try to not lean so much on Luck and the passing game......

 

I guess there is one big 'if' in there.  IF Luck is full go, then this dude will be an enormous steal thanks to all kinds of recency bias.  Watching very closely.

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No competition?? The NEW GM and HC just drafted 2 backs in the 4th and 5th rounds. Mack will be in a RBBC.. 

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Ballard also said in the same interview that Christian Michael was fully recovered from his injury from last year, and looking strong.

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5 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Frank Gore was RB12 in standard in both 2016 and 2015 with Luck.

 

Trying to figure out why Mack isn't a top 15 RB, if Luck is full go, and I can't.  5'11" 209 is decent size, he's explosive, he has no competition, the OL gets healthy plus a huge upgrade, they'll probably try to not lean so much on Luck and the passing game......

 

I guess there is one big 'if' in there.  IF Luck is full go, then this dude will be an enormous steal thanks to all kinds of recency bias.  Watching very closely.

 

5 hours ago, DLB4ever said:

No competition?? The NEW GM and HC just drafted 2 backs in the 4th and 5th rounds. Mack will be in a RBBC.. 

 

Yeah I'm more of the latter. I don't think this is clear that it's Macks' backfield or anything. Not like he earned it in 2017 over a new product. 

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I'm holding out hope for him to seize the lead role, but there is definitely some competition on the roster. Can he do it? Maybe, and those holding him as a maybe-more-likely-than-most type of lottery ticket might get paid off. Absolutely not guaranteed tho.

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11 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Frank Gore was RB12 in standard in both 2016 and 2015 with Luck.

 

Trying to figure out why Mack isn't a top 15 RB, if Luck is full go, and I can't.  5'11" 209 is decent size, he's explosive, he has no competition, the OL gets healthy plus a huge upgrade, they'll probably try to not lean so much on Luck and the passing game......

 

I guess there is one big 'if' in there.  IF Luck is full go, then this dude will be an enormous steal thanks to all kinds of recency bias.  Watching very closely.

 

I don't think he is a steal because it could be a messy backfield. 

Indy drafted Wilson and Hines. I think it comes down to who pass protects the best so it is Marlon macks job to lose in the early going. 

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Indy drafted Wilson and Hines.

 

Who?  Never heard of these guys.

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8 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Who?  Never heard of these guys.

 

2 guys who can turn the backfield into an unpredictable rbbc making everyone fantasy useless

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Who?  Never heard of these guys.

 

Well.. I think the Colts have. I think that's a bit more important. And they spent draft picks on them.

 

What has mack done to deserve any leash? 

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Well.. I think the Colts have. I think that's a bit more important. And they spent draft picks on them.

 

What has mack done to deserve any leash? 

I’m going to throw out Wilson. 

#1 Wilson isn’t a Colt #2 He’s a fumbling machine.

https://www.upi.com/2018-NFL-Draft-Fumble-rates-for-all-running-back-prospects/7311518380025/

 

Mack also has ball security issues, but he’s about 10-15lb heavier at 210 so more likely for early down work.

 

Jordan Wilkins is ranked Elite with ball security.  Nyheim Hines is below average.

 

Hines:

Hines would fit best in the NFL as a change-of-pace receiving back who also contributes as a returner. He could be a nice speed weapon for an offense. At the NFL Scouting Combine, Hines showed how devastatingly fast he is with his superb 40-yard dash time.
Read more at http://walterfootball.com/draft2018RB.php#JJZrIbohlzYSrASy.99

 

Wilkins:

Coming off of injury he’s a sleeper pick

 

At this point the RB job is Mack’s to lose, but the Colts haven’t committed more than a 4th round draft pick to any of them.  If no one creates any separation in the preseason, they might bring in a veteran.

 

The situation has a high chance of being a RBBC.

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16 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Frank Gore was RB12 in standard in both 2016 and 2015 with Luck.

 

Trying to figure out why Mack isn't a top 15 RB, if Luck is full go, and I can't.  5'11" 209 is decent size, he's explosive, he has no competition, the OL gets healthy plus a huge upgrade, they'll probably try to not lean so much on Luck and the passing game......

 

I guess there is one big 'if' in there.  IF Luck is full go, then this dude will be an enormous steal thanks to all kinds of recency bias.  Watching very closely.

 

This is not the post you're looking for.

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I'm buying with Mack. I liked what I saw in his limited work last year. If Luck gets right, he'll create a good RB. That dude seems to love throwing to the RB in the RZ. 

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9 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

2 guys who can turn the backfield into an unpredictable rbbc making everyone fantasy useless

How often do 2 mid round rookies come in and make a impact right away? Even last year, it took injuries to get Williams and Jones on the field in Green Bay. 

 

I'd say there's probably a better chance that a guy like Wilkins is on the practice squad than there is that he earns a major role. This is a classic example of people over-hyping a longshot rookie RB. 

 

Here are some RBs from the 2017 draft who were drafted earlier than Wilkins. 

 

Jeremy McNichols, Brian Hill, Joe Williams, Wayne Gallman, Donnel Pumphrey, Samaje Perine, James Conner.......

 

You don't have to be high on Marlon Mack, but staying away from him because of two RBs drafted with triple digit picks is just plain silly. 

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

How often do 2 mid round rookies come in and make a impact right away? Even last year, it took injuries to get Williams and Jones on the field in Green Bay. 

 

I'd say there's probably a better chance that a guy like Wilkins is on the practice squad than there is that he earns a major role. This is a classic example of people over-hyping a longshot rookie RB. 

 

Here are some RBs from the 2017 draft who were drafted earlier than Wilkins. 

 

Jeremy McNichols, Brian Hill, Joe Williams, Wayne Gallman, Donnel Pumphrey, Samaje Perine, James Conner.......

 

You don't have to be high on Marlon Mack, but staying away from him because of two RBs drafted with triple digit picks is just plain silly. 

 

I mean, Mack was drafted with a triple digit pick himself. 

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3 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I mean, Mack was drafted with a triple digit pick himself. 

Yeah, none of these guys are sure things. It's faint praise, but Mack at least proved he's capable of being on an NFL team last season. Plus he's a second year player. That gives him the clear leg up over two complete unknowns, in my book. 

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14 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Yeah, none of these guys are sure things. It's faint praise, but Mack at least proved he's capable of being on an NFL team last season. Plus he's a second year player. That gives him the clear leg up over two complete unknowns, in my book. 

 

Clear leg up for what role though? To get 50+% or to get a true large majority? I just don't see how Mack proved he deserved an extended primary look last year. Looked much more like a part of a set. 

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15 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Yeah, none of these guys are sure things. It's faint praise, but Mack at least proved he's capable of being on an NFL team last season. Plus he's a second year player. That gives him the clear leg up over two complete unknowns, in my book. 

 

For the moment, yes. I just meant if one of the rookies looks better in preseason, it isn't like they invested a lot of capital in Mack. 

 

It's probably something that won't clear  up till draft time.

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Posted (edited)

I think this whole backfield is gonna be a mess and you won't be able to confidently choose one of them come draft season.

 

Marlon Mack

Nyhiem Hines

Jordan Wilkins 

Robert Turbin

Christine Michael

 

They spent similar draft capital on Mack, Hines, and Wilkins. I don't expect all 5 guys to make the roster, but I don't think there will be any clarity. I've been able to move Mack in all of my dynasty leagues for decent return and won't touch him in redraft. 

Edited by tootallball

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1 hour ago, tootallball said:

I think this whole backfield is gonna be a mess and you won't be able to confidently choose one of them come draft season.

 

Marlon Mack

Nyhiem Hines

Jordan Wilkins 

Robert Turbin

Christine Michael

 

They spent similar draft capital on Mack, Hines, and Wilkins. I don't expect all 5 guys to make the roster, but I don't think there will be any clarity. I've been able to move Mack in all of my dynasty leagues for decent return and won't touch him in redraft. 

I think people are overcomplicating this situation. Right now, Mack is the starter. Turbin is the early down back up. Hines is an offensive weapon that they'll use to try and hit home runs. Wilkins and Michael each have about a 50% chance to even be on the active roster to start the season. 

 

He may fall on his face and blow the opportunity, but Mack should get the majority of the snaps, at least to start the season. 

 

He's in no worse a situation than guys like Ajayi, Drake, Jamaal Williams, Crowell, Collins, to name a few. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

I think people are overcomplicating this situation. Right now, Mack is the starter. Turbin is the early down back up. Hines is an offensive weapon that they'll use to try and hit home runs. Wilkins and Michael each have about a 50% chance to even be on the active roster to start the season. 

 

He may fall on his face and blow the opportunity, but Mack should get the majority of the snaps, at least to start the season. 

 

He's in no worse a situation than guys like Ajayi, Drake, Jamaal Williams, Crowell, Collins, to name a few. 

 

I agree. I guess it depends on ADP. Mack's ADP is currently 11.03 in 10 team PPR leagues according to fantasy football calculator. I'd take a flier on him there for sure. So Maybe I shouldn't have said I won't touch him in redraft. At that price he's worth a chance. 

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29 minutes ago, tootallball said:

 

I agree. I guess it depends on ADP. Mack's ADP is currently 11.03 in 10 team PPR leagues according to fantasy football calculator. I'd take a flier on him there for sure. So Maybe I shouldn't have said I won't touch him in redraft. At that price he's worth a chance. 

While there are still a lot of questions with Mack and Indy's run game I just don't see how his ADP stays that low.  If nothing changes (i.e., they announce someone else is the official starter) Mack's never going to last that long.

 

Even if it is a time share, if Mack is considered the "starter" I don't see him going in the 11th round in a 10-teamer.  He's going to go a lot earlier than that.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

I think people are overcomplicating this situation. Right now, Mack is the starter. Turbin is the early down back up. Hines is an offensive weapon that they'll use to try and hit home runs. Wilkins and Michael each have about a 50% chance to even be on the active roster to start the season. 

 

He may fall on his face and blow the opportunity, but Mack should get the majority of the snaps, at least to start the season. 

 

He's in no worse a situation than guys like Ajayi, Drake, Jamaal Williams, Crowell, Collins, to name a few. 

 

But what's "Starter" equate to. And what's "majority?" Are we talking about 50% of carries or more?

 

I just don't get why Mack has this massive Leash. He's not a veteran, he's a second year player. He does have one more year of familiarity with the playbook, but he's also not coming off a year where he performed particularly consistently or proved he could be a consistent ball carrier really. I think this is virtually an open competition. Does Mack have a leg-up? Sure. Is he the most likely to get time? Sure. But what has he done to earn such confidence from you? His sub-4.0 YPC in limited time got you that excited about him? I haven't seen him play on tape enough personally, but what I did certainly didn't make me go "Don't worry about RB! He's your future!" 

 

Thirdly: Easily take Ajayi (better line) Drake (more proven talent IMO) and Collins (much better performance in 2017 actually giving him a true leg-up IMO). 

 

Like do you LOVE his film or something? Why are you so confident about an average-at-best performer with a Bad Offensive Line and a Quarterback that hasn't thrown a ball in over a year? well when you phrase it like that...

 

EDIT: And to be clear, 10-11th Round ADP is way too low. I'm just characterizing my opinion about the role. I think he's probably a preferred Flex RB coming into the year. 

 

EDIT2: And throw out the playbook b/c I wasn't thinking that it was a new staff. Yeah I don't see the leash. 

Edited by taobball

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

But what's "Starter" equate to. And what's "majority?" Are we talking about 50% of carries or more?

 

I just don't get why Mack has this massive Leash. He's not a veteran, he's a second year player. He does have one more year of familiarity with the playbook, but he's also not coming off a year where he performed particularly consistently or proved he could be a consistent ball carrier really. I think this is virtually an open competition. Does Mack have a leg-up? Sure. Is he the most likely to get time? Sure. But what has he done to earn such confidence from you? His sub-4.0 YPC in limited time got you that excited about him? I haven't seen him play on tape enough personally, but what I did certainly didn't make me go "Don't worry about RB! He's your future!" 

 

Thirdly: Easily take Ajayi (better line) Drake (more proven talent IMO) and Collins (much better performance in 2017 actually giving him a true leg-up IMO). 

 

Like do you LOVE his film or something? Why are you so confident about an average-at-best performer with a Bad Offensive Line and a Quarterback that hasn't thrown a ball in over a year? well when you phrase it like that...

 

EDIT: And to be clear, 10-11th Round ADP is way too low. I'm just characterizing my opinion about the role. I think he's probably a preferred Flex RB coming into the year. 

 

EDIT2: And throw out the playbook b/c I wasn't thinking that it was a new staff. Yeah I don't see the leash. 

All very good points.  Mack might not turn out to be all that great.  But what-if, his shoulder injury really held him back. Playing through pain, couldn't do what he wanted to do, make the plays/moves he wanted to.  Say he is 100% in 4 months (Sept) and he's given the lead back role - which the team seems to want to do. At least give him the chance as the starter?

 

Maybe the injury held him back last year?  Obviously the team believes in him as they haven't brought in a veteran and they didn't reach for one of the top RBs in the draft..

Edited by Big Nate

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

But what's "Starter" equate to. And what's "majority?" Are we talking about 50% of carries or more?

 

I just don't get why Mack has this massive Leash. He's not a veteran, he's a second year player. He does have one more year of familiarity with the playbook, but he's also not coming off a year where he performed particularly consistently or proved he could be a consistent ball carrier really. I think this is virtually an open competition. Does Mack have a leg-up? Sure. Is he the most likely to get time? Sure. But what has he done to earn such confidence from you? His sub-4.0 YPC in limited time got you that excited about him? I haven't seen him play on tape enough personally, but what I did certainly didn't make me go "Don't worry about RB! He's your future!" 

 

Thirdly: Easily take Ajayi (better line) Drake (more proven talent IMO) and Collins (much better performance in 2017 actually giving him a true leg-up IMO). 

 

Like do you LOVE his film or something? Why are you so confident about an average-at-best performer with a Bad Offensive Line and a Quarterback that hasn't thrown a ball in over a year? well when you phrase it like that...

 

EDIT: And to be clear, 10-11th Round ADP is way too low. I'm just characterizing my opinion about the role. I think he's probably a preferred Flex RB coming into the year. 

 

EDIT2: And throw out the playbook b/c I wasn't thinking that it was a new staff. Yeah I don't see the leash. 

When did I say I loved him or that I was super confident about him? I thought he looked at least competent last year, and, at times, very good. 

 

All I'm saying is that he's the starter right now. There's no one else on the roster that even really looks like they have a shot at it. Again, Hines is as fast as anyone, but he's nowhere close to being a day one starting running back. Other than straight line speed, his running back skills are pretty raw. Turbin is clearly a back up. Michael is a journeyman hoping to survive final cuts. And Wilkins is a late 5th round rookie, who looks like a complimentary NFL back, if he even makes the active roster. 

 

If they don't sign a free agent running back (Anderson), then Mack is looking great. 

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