Geaux Saints

Jamaal Williams 2018 Outlook

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19 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

I agree with the sentiment but New England?  I drafted Michel but it hasn't exactly been the easiest fantasy RB landscape to navigate.  Sure they churn out a few stud performers but it almost always is difficult to predict at the start of the year.

 

 

I like to do this too but you have to admit there's a downside there. You have to factor in the opportunity cost of using multiple draft picks (Williams' ADP is now 94, Morris at 64, Burkhead 68, not saying it's an unreasonable price but at that range it's not just "boom or bust WRs" available at there), using multiple bench spots, the lack of defined roles prior to games when the hierarchy changes (eg last year if you owned and started GB RB every week there were probably multiple games where even the best fantasy players would have started the wrong one as different guys take over roles).

 

No ones arguing that Williams isn't a worthwhile pick (well OK there's probably some people saying that but still). There's just some reasonable risk as well.  

 

 

This year you know that J Williams will have the first crack at it in the first two games. Now I have him and Jones, I didnt bother with Ty Mont because he's not durable enough to be a RB. Week 3, I'll have a good idea of what's going on with the GB RB situation, but for the first two weeks, I should have a top 15 RB that I drafted in the 7th round.

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1 minute ago, hamburglar628 said:

Week 3, I'll have a good idea of what's going on with the GB RB situation

 

Eh we'll have to see about that bit.  

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11 minutes ago, danmam said:

Packers fan here -- much of my Packers prognostication turns out to be wrong (or, at least, if correct, it takes some time to reveal it as such), but I think the threat of Aaron Jones making Jamaal Williams unstartable or at best a flex play is misguided. 

 

I'll try to keep this short: training camp is chock-full of coachspeak that means little to nothing. Mike McCarthy is not immune to this, but he is among the coaches who is least likely to heap praise on an undeserving player, and he'll even occasionally call out underperformers through the media. Aaron Rodgers fits this mold as well: when there's someone he sees performing at a high level, he lets the media know; when he sees players underperforming, he also (usually subtly) lets the media know as well. 

 

Brief examples: following Davante Adams' rookie year (mostly uneventful outside of a few big games late in the year as he spent the season as the #3 WR behind Jordy and Cobb), McCarthy called Adams the "MVP...[of the offseason]" and, from the linked article:

 

Of course, in 2015 Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the preseason and the Adams hype-train took off, only to be derailed by a Week 1 ankle injury that hounded him all year, particularly brutal for a WR whose defining quality is his elite release skills from the LOS. He played at well less than 100% (limping off the field not uncommonly to get re-taped up), his ability to create separation suffered, he'd be inhuman if his confidence didn't waver, which directly or indirectly resulted in a lot of dropped passes, and many Packers fans and probably a good deal of analysts as well were ready to write him off as a bust already without taking these factors into account. Well, healthy Davante has had no problems with drops and has delivered on every ounce of promise, albeit more than a year later than hoped, that Rodgers and McCarthy saw in him. 

 

The only other "offseason MVP" McCarthy has publicly declared was DT Kenny Clark following his rookie season in 2016. Clark went on to finish 2017 as a top-10 DT (based on PFF) and one of five interior DL to finish top-21 in both run-stopping and pass-rushing (per PFF again). 

 

[Sidebar: I'm sure there are some quotes someone can dig up about McCarthy complimenting Brett Hundley and we can see how that turned out, though I personally don't believe we've heard the last of Hundley as a productive NFL QB...no doubt he performed worse than the Packers' coaching staff and I expected him to, and had more downs than ups (needing OT to beat the Browns and getting shut out by the Ravens and Vikings to name a few) but also showed some undeniable flashes (nearly beating the Steelers, showing the ability to perform in the clutch with his game-winning pass in OT against (sigh) the Browns, to name a couple) -- in short, considering some of the defenses he faced (7 of his 10 games where he got appreciable playing time were against top-10 defenses), an uneven performance like what he displayed in his first extended time as a starter isn't a death knell for his career; ask Goff, Peyton Manning, Marino, and many other. OK that was too long of a sidebar -- Hundley will be back, is my point, and it just might be as a starter somewhere.]

 

The offseason has a lot of coachspeak, of course. And it's a lot more productive to listen to a coach speaking negatively about a player than it is to hear them say "best shape of their life" and other coaching platitudes.

 

With that said, Mike McCarthy (and Aaron Rodgers) are generally much less susceptible to "coachspeak" or complimenting the play/development of players who are undeserving of it (e.g. Rodgers basically throwing shade at the three WRs the Packers drafted with how glowingly he complimented Jake Kumerow (and how he flat out mentioned the rookie WRs need to look at Kumerow to see how they need to perform in practice if they want to gain his trust, without which they will not succeed in the NFL). 

 

Back to coachspeak: you'll be hard-pressed to find a player McCarthy has been more vocally complimentary of this offseason than Williams. Quotes like (from here):

 

As a side note, the only two other guys I've heard similar (though less extreme) statements about from McCarthy this offseason have been S Kentrell Brice and (***fantasy relevant***) Jimmy Graham (Rodgers has also been vocally complimentary of Graham; I can't recall to what extent this contrasts his public statements on Martellus Bennett last year or Jared Cook the year before (though Cook performed when healthy; and if you ask Bennett, he wasn't healthy the entire season) -- and Rodgers has notably been critical of the trio of WRs the Packers drafted (though complimentary of Geronimo Allison) so he too is not one to dish out compliments when he doesn't feel they're deserved).  

 

So back to Jamaal Williams. As you're probably aware, he's far-and-away the best pass-blocking RB on the Packers' roster -- completely different ballpark than Jones or TyMont. Fifth-best in the NFL, as a rookie, last year, according to SIS. I mean, just look at this identification and execution of a difficult block of a free blitzer coming from as far from where he's lined up as possible. And believe me, you cannot underestimate how important pass-blocking is to a team that: A) has very recently seen what happens when their QB gets injured, and will prioritize players/schemes to prevent that as much as possible in the future, and B) runs a complex offense that has lost some key veteran offensive line cogs in the past few seasons (Lang and Sitton) whose continuity (along with the rest of the O-line) is an undeniable advantage in pass protection effectiveness. 

 

So there's reason to believe Williams is the preferable RB for the Packers to have in the game on 3rd-down passing situations (if they have a RB on the field -- can split TyMont wide, or keep Marcedes Lewis in to block if they're finding their O-line giving up a lot of pressure). 

 

Two more final thoughts:

1. I think Williams' skills as a RB are dramatically underrated. When you watch Aaron Jones, he seems to "pop" -- shot out of a cannon, some would describe it; more "explosive," certainly. Reminds me of Christine Michael during his brief time with the Packers (haven't watched a lot of him elsewhere) -- goes from 0 to 60 by the time he's got the ball, but seems to lack the vision to be a successful NFL RB. I love what Jones offers as a change of pace due to that "thunder and lightning" element he offers along with Williams. But a recent podcast I heard talked about Jordan Howard and why he's been so successful despite lacking the breakaway speed or, at least to my knowledge, freakish athleticism that gives him the elusiveness of guys like Kareem Hunt (or Jamaal Charles in his prime). The analyst on the podcast talked about how Howard knows how to run in traffic -- surrounded by bodies, some of whom are your teammates, most of whom aren't, but knowing how to move your body in relation to these other massive bodies (subconsciously predicting THEIR movements, while simultaneously physically breaking imperfect tackle attempts, etc.). I don't know if "vision" is the right word because that implies identification of cutback lanes (which a RB can also possess, but is not exactly what I'm talking about), nor is necessarily "patience" -- "feel" seems like a more accurate word. Essentially, Howard can get 3, 4, 5 yards per carry nearly at will due to his skills in this "feel" attribute, and I think Williams possesses it as well. Of course, an open running lane doesn't prevent him from getting a whole lot more than 3-5 yards, but (without looking up the stats and just going by intuition here) I feel like Howard is a guy who doesn't run for negative yardage all that often, and I think Williams shares this "feel" attribute of Howard's running style (though he's got more going for him than just that). (Side note: Williams and Howard have identical 40 times: 4.59 sec). I love Aaron Jones and think he plays a role in this offense when he comes back (I'm more skeptical of TyMont -- I think he's going to be more of a hybrid RB/WR this year than true RB, but that's pure speculation). 

2. And one final thing: back when the Packers were producing single fantasy-relevant RBs (essentially one or two years of Lacy), remember what was a HUGE part of their game? Here's a hint.

 

TL;DR: Draft Jamaal Williams and don't worry about him -- he's gonna crush it unless he gets injured. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

God bless you sir.

 

And thank you for waiting until after my draft to post this.

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18 minutes ago, danmam said:

 

 

 

 

One of the most objective, refreshing posts I've read on these boards. Lots of logic and great train of thought within this post. Real winner. Thanks Dan!

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Not a favorable schedule to start the season, he gets Chicago, already a top 10 unit that just added one of the best DE/LB's, then Minnesota, a top 3 possibly the best run def team in the league. I'd be impressed if he runs away with the job while Aaron Jones is out. After that you might end up with a RBBC. 

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I'm sure the Packers coaching staff is well aware of their opening schedule and the difficulties it will present both rushing and passing the ball. I tend to be of the opinion that while a fantasy owner may be inclined to throw in the towel (or sell low) on Williams after two bad weeks (if they are indeed bad weeks), a coaching staff can contextualize results to a far better degree.

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The plus is that there’s absolutely no stacking the box against him. I’m assuming he’ll see more 3-4 than anything with Rodgers at the helm.

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3 minutes ago, Shortnphat said:

The plus is that there’s absolutely no stacking the box against him. I’m assuming he’ll see more 3-4 than anything with Rodgers at the helm.

Agreed. On top of that, the Packers' LT Bakhtiari was PFF's top-graded pass-blocking LT last year, so for the most part, you can leave him on an island against whoever and feel okay about it (Mack vs. Bakhtiari will be a fun matchup to watch). Packers also have Marcedes Lewis, their best-blocking TE in ages, to aid when Rodgers sees a blitz coming or just on long dropbacks in general. I still think my opinion as stated in my long previous post holds weight, and if the Packers' running game starts off slow, then I'd treat it as a buy-low opportunity for Williams more than anything else.

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22 hours ago, danmam said:

Packers fan here -- much of my Packers prognostication turns out to be wrong (or, at least, if correct, it takes some time to reveal it as such), but I think the threat of Aaron Jones making Jamaal Williams unstartable or at best a flex play is misguided. 

 

I'll try to keep this short: training camp is chock-full of coachspeak that means little to nothing. Mike McCarthy is not immune to this, but he is among the coaches who is least likely to heap praise on an undeserving player, and he'll even occasionally call out underperformers through the media. Aaron Rodgers fits this mold as well: when there's someone he sees performing at a high level, he lets the media know; when he sees players underperforming, he also (usually subtly) lets the media know as well. 

 

Brief examples: following Davante Adams' rookie year (mostly uneventful outside of a few big games late in the year as he spent the season as the #3 WR behind Jordy and Cobb), McCarthy called Adams the "MVP...[of the offseason]" and, from the linked article:

 

Of course, in 2015 Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the preseason and the Adams hype-train took off, only to be derailed by a Week 1 ankle injury that hounded him all year, particularly brutal for a WR whose defining quality is his elite release skills from the LOS. He played at well less than 100% (limping off the field not uncommonly to get re-taped up), his ability to create separation suffered, he'd be inhuman if his confidence didn't waver, which directly or indirectly resulted in a lot of dropped passes, and many Packers fans and probably a good deal of analysts as well were ready to write him off as a bust already without taking these factors into account. Well, healthy Davante has had no problems with drops and has delivered on every ounce of promise, albeit more than a year later than hoped, that Rodgers and McCarthy saw in him. 

 

The only other "offseason MVP" McCarthy has publicly declared was DT Kenny Clark following his rookie season in 2016. Clark went on to finish 2017 as a top-10 DT (based on PFF) and one of five interior DL to finish top-21 in both run-stopping and pass-rushing (per PFF again). 

 

[Sidebar: I'm sure there are some quotes someone can dig up about McCarthy complimenting Brett Hundley and we can see how that turned out, though I personally don't believe we've heard the last of Hundley as a productive NFL QB...no doubt he performed worse than the Packers' coaching staff and I expected him to, and had more downs than ups (needing OT to beat the Browns and getting shut out by the Ravens and Vikings to name a few) but also showed some undeniable flashes (nearly beating the Steelers, showing the ability to perform in the clutch with his game-winning pass in OT against (sigh) the Browns, to name a couple) -- in short, considering some of the defenses he faced (7 of his 10 games where he got appreciable playing time were against top-10 defenses), an uneven performance like what he displayed in his first extended time as a starter isn't a death knell for his career; ask Goff, Peyton Manning, Marino, and many other. OK that was too long of a sidebar -- Hundley will be back, is my point, and it just might be as a starter somewhere.]

 

The offseason has a lot of coachspeak, of course. And it's a lot more productive to listen to a coach speaking negatively about a player than it is to hear them say "best shape of their life" and other coaching platitudes.

 

With that said, Mike McCarthy (and Aaron Rodgers) are generally much less susceptible to "coachspeak" or complimenting the play/development of players who are undeserving of it (e.g. Rodgers basically throwing shade at the three WRs the Packers drafted with how glowingly he complimented Jake Kumerow (and how he flat out mentioned the rookie WRs need to look at Kumerow to see how they need to perform in practice if they want to gain his trust, without which they will not succeed in the NFL). 

 

Back to coachspeak: you'll be hard-pressed to find a player McCarthy has been more vocally complimentary of this offseason than Williams. Quotes like (from here):

 

As a side note, the only two other guys I've heard similar (though less extreme) statements about from McCarthy this offseason have been S Kentrell Brice and (***fantasy relevant***) Jimmy Graham (Rodgers has also been vocally complimentary of Graham; I can't recall to what extent this contrasts his public statements on Martellus Bennett last year or Jared Cook the year before (though Cook performed when healthy; and if you ask Bennett, he wasn't healthy the entire season) -- and Rodgers has notably been critical of the trio of WRs the Packers drafted (though complimentary of Geronimo Allison) so he too is not one to dish out compliments when he doesn't feel they're deserved).  

 

So back to Jamaal Williams. As you're probably aware, he's far-and-away the best pass-blocking RB on the Packers' roster -- completely different ballpark than Jones or TyMont. Fifth-best in the NFL, as a rookie, last year, according to SIS. I mean, just look at this identification and execution of a difficult block of a free blitzer coming from as far from where he's lined up as possible. And believe me, you cannot underestimate how important pass-blocking is to a team that: A) has very recently seen what happens when their QB gets injured, and will prioritize players/schemes to prevent that as much as possible in the future, and B) runs a complex offense that has lost some key veteran offensive line cogs in the past few seasons (Lang and Sitton) whose continuity (along with the rest of the O-line) is an undeniable advantage in pass protection effectiveness. 

 

So there's reason to believe Williams is the preferable RB for the Packers to have in the game on 3rd-down passing situations (if they have a RB on the field -- can split TyMont wide, or keep Marcedes Lewis in to block if they're finding their O-line giving up a lot of pressure). 

 

Two more final thoughts:

1. I think Williams' skills as a RB are dramatically underrated. When you watch Aaron Jones, he seems to "pop" -- shot out of a cannon, some would describe it; more "explosive," certainly. Reminds me of Christine Michael during his brief time with the Packers (haven't watched a lot of him elsewhere) -- goes from 0 to 60 by the time he's got the ball, but seems to lack the vision to be a successful NFL RB. I love what Jones offers as a change of pace due to that "thunder and lightning" element he offers along with Williams. But a recent podcast I heard talked about Jordan Howard and why he's been so successful despite lacking the breakaway speed or, at least to my knowledge, freakish athleticism that gives him the elusiveness of guys like Kareem Hunt (or Jamaal Charles in his prime). The analyst on the podcast talked about how Howard knows how to run in traffic -- surrounded by bodies, some of whom are your teammates, most of whom aren't, but knowing how to move your body in relation to these other massive bodies (subconsciously predicting THEIR movements, while simultaneously physically breaking imperfect tackle attempts, etc.). I don't know if "vision" is the right word because that implies identification of cutback lanes (which a RB can also possess, but is not exactly what I'm talking about), nor is necessarily "patience" -- "feel" seems like a more accurate word. Essentially, Howard can get 3, 4, 5 yards per carry nearly at will due to his skills in this "feel" attribute, and I think Williams possesses it as well. Of course, an open running lane doesn't prevent him from getting a whole lot more than 3-5 yards, but (without looking up the stats and just going by intuition here) I feel like Howard is a guy who doesn't run for negative yardage all that often, and I think Williams shares this "feel" attribute of Howard's running style (though he's got more going for him than just that). (Side note: Williams and Howard have identical 40 times: 4.59 sec). I love Aaron Jones and think he plays a role in this offense when he comes back (I'm more skeptical of TyMont -- I think he's going to be more of a hybrid RB/WR this year than true RB, but that's pure speculation). 

2. And one final thing: back when the Packers were producing single fantasy-relevant RBs (essentially one or two years of Lacy), remember what was a HUGE part of their game? Here's a hint.

 

TL;DR: Draft Jamaal Williams and don't worry about him -- he's gonna crush it unless he gets injured. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Excellent post with great evidence to back up your comments. It's funny you compared Jones to Christine Michael, I had thought of the same analogy recently. I'm in 3 leagues this season...and Jamaal Williams is the only player I drafted on all 3 teams. So I'm all in - and hope he does well for your Packers. 

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I can't get my mind around how Williams is so lowly drafted. He is a guaranteed starter for first 2 weeks, plays in a top offense, and proved last year he can produce with the opportunity. Even when Aaron Jones was healthy he was getting about 15 touches a game, still very valuable. He has a chance to establish himself ahead of Jones, while Montgomery will likely fight through injuries most of year / get rested a lot to keep him fresh. He's been a no brainer for me so far after the clear starters at RB are gone.

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I own a bit of Williams and a bit of Jones across a few leagues. Thing that's always stood out to me is that the Packers coaching staff has been going out of their way to pump Williams tires since he started running last season. Jones has had some good games, but the Packers always seem to be hyping Williams for some reason. I'll always take the guy who has the coach love. As we've seen a number of times ... the most talented guy definitely doesn't always get the bulk of the carries.

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No matter what, it will be a RBBC, riding the hot hand. No way around that. After injuries derailed the backfield last time, McCarthy will keep all the guys game fresh in case one or more go down again. Yes, Williams appears to be the preferred pass blocking back, but they will use Jones to smash between the tackles, and Ty to take some short passes to hopefully break some big plays. The packers are not interested in anyway of having a 3 down workhorse back. They prefer to pass, pass, pass, and to model their backfield after the patriots RBBC. 

 

I passed on Williams cuz he went higher than I was willing to spend, and only grabbed Jones, cuz he was my last pick, otherwise I wouldn’t have picked him. Montgomery is still on Waivers. If there are injuries, then you will see the remaining backs become relevant most games, but until that happens, it will be a guessing game of which back puts up the points, just like the patriots backfield, (which every year I say DND, but every year end up with one or two... lol) 

 

As a packer fan, I don’t care which back does awesome, as long as they tear it up!

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1 minute ago, Raynestorm said:

No matter what, it will be a RBBC, riding the hot hand. No way around that. After injuries derailed the backfield last time, McCarthy will keep all the guys game fresh in case one or more go down again. Yes, Williams appears to be the preferred pass blocking back, but they will use Jones to smash between the tackles, and Ty to take some short passes to hopefully break some big plays. The packers are not interested in anyway of having a 3 down workhorse back. They prefer to pass, pass, pass, and to model their backfield after the patriots RBBC. 

 

I passed on Williams cuz he went higher than I was willing to spend, and only grabbed Jones, cuz he was my last pick, otherwise I wouldn’t have picked him. Montgomery is still on Waivers. If there are injuries, then you will see the remaining backs become relevant most games, but until that happens, it will be a guessing game of which back puts up the points, just like the patriots backfield, (which every year I say DND, but every year end up with one or two... lol) 

 

As a packer fan, I don’t care which back does awesome, as long as they tear it up!

 

How many situations in the nfl arent a RBBC? Nobody is saying draft the dude in the first 2 rounds. Hes a fresh, starting RB on an elite offense that the coach and QB love. Hes a tremendous value and no he doesnt need a 100% snap/usage rate to qualify for that. 

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28 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

I can't get my mind around how Williams is so lowly drafted. He is a guaranteed starter for first 2 weeks, plays in a top offense, and proved last year he can produce with the opportunity. Even when Aaron Jones was healthy he was getting about 15 touches a game, still very valuable. He has a chance to establish himself ahead of Jones, while Montgomery will likely fight through injuries most of year / get rested a lot to keep him fresh. He's been a no brainer for me so far after the clear starters at RB are gone.

Agreed. He's the unquestioned starting running back on an elite offense. There's literally no threat to early down work on the roster. If I'd never looked at rankings, I'd assume he was a consensus top 15 back, at least until Jones came back. 

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4 minutes ago, Raynestorm said:

No matter what, it will be a RBBC, riding the hot hand. No way around that. After injuries derailed the backfield last time, McCarthy will keep all the guys game fresh in case one or more go down again. Yes, Williams appears to be the preferred pass blocking back, but they will use Jones to smash between the tackles, and Ty to take some short passes to hopefully break some big plays. The packers are not interested in anyway of having a 3 down workhorse back. They prefer to pass, pass, pass, and to model their backfield after the patriots RBBC. 

 

I passed on Williams cuz he went higher than I was willing to spend, and only grabbed Jones, cuz he was my last pick, otherwise I wouldn’t have picked him. Montgomery is still on Waivers. If there are injuries, then you will see the remaining backs become relevant most games, but until that happens, it will be a guessing game of which back puts up the points, just like the patriots backfield, (which every year I say DND, but every year end up with one or two... lol) 

 

As a packer fan, I don’t care which back does awesome, as long as they tear it up!

A RBBC this week? How? Ty will be used in certain passing situations. That's it. RBBC means there are several running backs who all see at least moderate usage. This is the furthest possible thing from that, for now. 

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11 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

A RBBC this week? How? Ty will be used in certain passing situations. That's it. RBBC means there are several running backs who all see at least moderate usage. This is the furthest possible thing from that, for now. 

 

You know what I meant... When Jones comes off suspension... 

 

Ty and Williams will be in the backfield these next 2 weeks. Week 3 and on, Jones, Ty, and Williams will all be in the backfield. 

 

I dont draft for players to start only 2 games, I look at my picks as all long term plays...

 

Williams (besides tough defenses), will be good play next 2 weeks. After that, barring injuries, it will be a guessing game...

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10 minutes ago, Raynestorm said:

 

You know what I meant... When Jones comes off suspension... 

 

Ty and Williams will be in the backfield these next 2 weeks. Week 3 and on, Jones, Ty, and Williams will all be in the backfield. 

 

I dont draft for players to start only 2 games, I look at my picks as all long term plays...

 

Williams (besides tough defenses), will be good play next 2 weeks. After that, barring injuries, it will be a guessing game...

Sounds like you'll be $hit out of luck if Williams has a good year. 

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I strongly disagree that it will be rbbc...the pass blocking back is the guy who stays on the field..too many times in the past i got burned on the hype guy when he lacked this extremely important trait..he is the starter and it will stay that way when moore returns...im sure he will spell him but its the williams show in GB

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1 minute ago, ponchsox said:

The hate for this guy is unmerited. Why do so many here think he will fail?

 

They missed the train man lol

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I mean I've been getting him  ~Rd6 in 12 men team... that's value. drafted today and RBs around there are Lynch, Barber, Carson, Conner, Morris, Breida

 

Based on situation and offense alone, I'd much rather have Williams TBH

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23 hours ago, danmam said:

 

I'll try to keep this short:

Thanks for restraining yourself ?

 

And thanks for the info!

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Anyone contemplating starting him against the bears D?....it might be a tough one for the packers offense.

 

what other options would you opt for?

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