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Calvin Ridley 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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1 minute ago, Guwop said:

 

So Ryan and stark haven't given Julio TDs for awhile and suddenly that changes now just because? My point isn't that ridley is taking over. I'm questioning why people are writing him off so easily and so confident that Julio will take all the TDs and points when that hasn't happened for awhile now. Ridley is efficient with his targets and even after offseason red zone practice Julio is still allergic to TDs and needed to be force fed to get his numbers 

No one is writing him off. Most of us own him I'm sure otherwise we'd be wasting our time in here. Point is he won't have 24 TD's so his usage is important. The question is if his usage will go up to sustain being a wr2 rest of season. 

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2 minutes ago, cowan_j2012 said:

unless he gets 24 td's this year he is a wr3

 

That's crazy talk, because as it stands right now he's a WR2.

 

The first week they didn't utilize him at all and they lost. They've still been losing but with him in the lineup they've scored a ton of points and are back to looking like the SB team on offense from 2016.

 

Ridley is on pace for 60 catches, 92 targets, 1,056 yards, and 24 TDs.

 

Now, the TD rate won't be maintained, but the rest of it I believe will, if not be slightly better since we are accounting for that lost Week 1 in the projections. So, I think it is safe to say his rookie season will eclipse JuJu's and JuJu was a WR2.

Edited by FitzMagic
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Anyone worried about if the falcons offense will dial back a bit once Devonta Freeman comes back. Would improve the running game and let them hold the ball more --->gives the defense more rest. 

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Just now, FitzMagic said:

 

That's crazy talk, because as it stands right now he's a WR2.

0.5 PPR he's wr7 right now. That's because he has 6 TD's. If you normalize his numbers down to 3 TD's he's a wr3. 

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2 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

Ridley is on pace for 60 catches, 92 targets, 1,056 yards, and 24 TDs.

That's assuming he plays all 16 games, which is unrealistic. The average receiver misses 2 games per season. That needs to be baked into projections.

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4 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

 

That's crazy talk, because as it stands right now he's a WR2.

 

Right. People just picking numbers at this point

3 minutes ago, cowan_j2012 said:

0.5 PPR he's wr7 right now. That's because he has 6 TD's. If you normalize his numbers down to 3 TD's he's a wr3. 

 

But normalizing is playing hypotheticals. So if he only gets 18TDs is he a wr3 still? I get being realistic but in that case Julio owners need a reality check too lol

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7 minutes ago, WazGood said:

Anyone worried about if the falcons offense will dial back a bit once Devonta Freeman comes back. Would improve the running game and let them hold the ball more --->gives the defense more rest. 

 

Nope, they will be even more dynamic at that point. Freeman is a different back than Coleman. Freeman when healthy is a weapon that will keep a defense even more honest against the wideouts. Like i said though, they look as good if not better than 2016. They didn't have to dial back anything that year. I guess maybe this year because the defense is terrible they may slow it down to keep them off the field. But they would have to be ahead and that's going to be really tough with all of their injuries.

Edited by FitzMagic

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4 minutes ago, cowan_j2012 said:

No one is writing him off. Most of us own him I'm sure otherwise we'd be wasting our time in here. Point is he won't have 24 TD's so his usage is important. The question is if his usage will go up to sustain being a wr2 rest of season. 

I don't know why his usage wouldn't go up or stay the same. I mean his only competition is Sanu who is not that good. If he continues to ball out on limited snaps he will easily take over a lot of Sanu's production. 

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1 minute ago, Guwop said:

 

Right. People just picking numbers at this point

 

But normalizing is playing hypotheticals. So if he only gets 18TDs is he a wr3 still? I get being realistic but in that case Julio owners need a reality check too lol

so you think he's going to have 18 td's? interesting. i absolutely don't. he's been td lucky. anyone in their right mind understands that. that's why USAGE is very important. his usage isn't high. it's not terrible but to be a wr2 in this day and age you need around 10 targets a game. he's not getting that. funny thing is i think as the season goes along his usage will increase but obviously his TD's will decrease dramatically. 

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2 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

I don't know why his usage wouldn't go up or stay the same. I mean his only competition is Sanu who is not that good. If he continues to ball out on limited snaps he will easily take over a lot of Sanu's production. 

 If his usage stays the same and the TD's go to a normal average going forward he's a wr3.. he needs more usage. 

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8 minutes ago, MJ10162 said:

That's assuming he plays all 16 games, which is unrealistic. The average receiver misses 2 games per season. That needs to be baked into projections.

 

Yeah, count the first game as a missed game. That's already baked in. Plus, we already know Julio isn't going to play all 16 or he'll be gimpy in a few.

Edited by FitzMagic

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15 catches and 6 td's... imagine if he has 75 catches this year... that means 30 td's!!!

Edited by cowan_j2012

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9 minutes ago, cowan_j2012 said:

so you think he's going to have 18 td's? interesting. i absolutely don't. he's been td lucky. anyone in their right mind understands that. that's why USAGE is very important. his usage isn't high. it's not terrible but to be a wr2 in this day and age you need around 10 targets a game. he's not getting that. funny thing is i think as the season goes along his usage will increase but obviously his TD's will decrease dramatically. 

 

No I'm just throwing out arbitrary numbers to see which number makes him more than wr3. If you need 24 TDs to meet the criteria for wr2 then the league is in trouble lol

 

I think he'll gain enough targets not to be TD dependent as the season goes on. I can see 7-8 and he can do well with that. 

Edited by Guwop
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9 minutes ago, cowan_j2012 said:

 If his usage stays the same and the TD's go to a normal average going forward he's a wr3.. he needs more usage. 

 

You decrease his TDs but won't increase his usage at all. You're picking and choosing where the regression happens lol. 

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18 minutes ago, WazGood said:

Anyone worried about if the falcons offense will dial back a bit once Devonta Freeman comes back. Would improve the running game and let them hold the ball more --->gives the defense more rest. 

 

Not these next two weeks....Pitt and TB

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4 minutes ago, Guwop said:

 

No I'm just throwing out arbitrary numbers to see which number makes him more than wr3. If you need 24 TDs to meet the criteria for wr2 then the league is in trouble lol

 

I think he'll gain enough targets not to be TD dependent as the season goes on. I can see 7-8 and he can do well with that. 

 

1 minute ago, Guwop said:

 

You decrease his TDs but won't increase his usage at all. You're picking and choosing where the regression happens lol. 

No... Someone said if his usage stays the same so I responded. I think his usage will go up but I'm counting on 6 tds maybe rest of season. 

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7 minutes ago, Guwop said:

No I'm just throwing out arbitrary numbers to see which number makes him more than wr3. If you need 24 TDs to meet the criteria for wr2 then the league is in trouble lol

 

I think he'll gain enough targets not to be TD dependent as the season goes on. I can see 7-8 and he can do well with that. 

You don't assess value by past gains. You assess them by projecting future production. Those 6 TDs Ridley already accounted for aren't going to score me any points the rest of the year. The question is what his value is ROS. It has 0 to do with him "needing 24 TDs to meet the criteria of a WR2".

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11 minutes ago, cowan_j2012 said:

 

No... Someone said if his usage stays the same so I responded. I think his usage will go up but I'm counting on 6 tds maybe rest of season. 

 

So, where was JuJu at the end of the season then? If his usage increases, which it will, there is no way he's any worse than JuJu last year. Was he a WR3 last year or not? It seems to me you just don't want to admit that Ridley is a WR2.

Edited by FitzMagic

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9 minutes ago, MJ10162 said:

You don't assess value by past gains. You assess them by projecting future production. Those 6 TDs Ridley already accounted for aren't going to score me any points the rest of the year. The question is what his value is ROS. It has 0 to do with him "needing 24 TDs to meet the criteria of a WR2".

 

People literally do that for damn near every hyped offensive player to help them predict what will happen later. How do you predict the future without any data? If you can then you should have been in the Collins, Miller, Drake, j. Gordon, fournette etc  threads before the season started 

Edited by Guwop
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the league has been extremely more pass heavy this year. juju had about 180 points in 0.5 ppr last year. divide that by 4 and you get 45 points. 45 points at the quarter pole is worth 34th in wr points this year.

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1 hour ago, cowan_j2012 said:

so around 12 targets per to 7... if ridley's snap count starts to go up, which why wouldn't it, he'll be dope. i won't trade him because i expect this to happen. i just thought the juju/ridley situation comparison was funny. 

Does your league give you points for Snap counts? Who cares...... He isn't a run blocking WR that is why he isn't in there.  Calvin makes good on the opportunities hes presented. 

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11 minutes ago, kco734 said:

Does your league give you points for Snap counts? Who cares...... He isn't a run blocking WR that is why he isn't in there.  Calvin makes good on the opportunities hes presented. 

once again. i own him. he's a very good wr3 with upside. snap counts do matter. they aren't going to telegraph pass plays by bringing ridley in only on pass plays. snap counts are opportunities... snap counts and target% are my favorite way to evaluate a wr. of course he has done extremely well with his opportunities. i also expect his usage to go up. i just expect his TD's to fall faster. 

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56 minutes ago, Guwop said:

People literally do that for damn near every hyped offensive player to help them predict what will happen later. How do you predict the future without any data? If you can then you should have been in the Collins, Miller, Drake, j. Gordon, fournette etc  threads before the season started 

What you're posting has nothing to do with what I'm saying. You misunderstood another poster and I'm explaining why.

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11 hours ago, austin316 said:

Julio has the biggest target share in the NFL

 

For overall targets, by a margin. For WR targets it's Cory Davis if I'm correct.

 

Regarding the "if JJ goes down Ridley is pure gold", I don't know if that is true. If ridley is going to be covered by CB1s and get's some doubles I'm not sure.

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I missed out on the three TD game (he was on my bench), but had him in my lineup last weekend. He got me 17.5 points in standard as my WR2. He outscored all of my other non-QB starters. I know there's gonna be regression as far as the TD's go, but there's no way I can bench him. This may very well be the week Julio gets a TD or 2, but I still think Ridley posts decent WR2/3 numbers. 7 for 75 and a score is a very reasonable expectation IMO. 

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