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mjb03003

D.J. Moore 2018 Outlook

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It's about time for all these rookies to start getting their own threads, especially first round picks who figure to have a decent role right out of the gate like DJ Moore. 

 

I'm excited by what I've read about Moore's athleticism, route running, and explosiveness. I'm concerned by the fact that he may be no better than 4th in the pecking order for targets (behind Olsen, McCaffrey, and Funchess), and the fact that Cam Newton is historically inaccurate which could negate Moore's route running and the separation he creates. 

 

As with most rookies, I'm much more intrigued by his dynasty outlook than his redraft outlook, since Olsen and even Funchess may not be long for the Panthers, and Moore is just 21 years and 4 months old and figures to get every opportunity to establish himself as the team's alpha WR. 

 

What say you people? Is there room within this thread to talk about his redraft AND keeper/dynasty outlook? 

 

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Love the player, but I'm convinced that Cam will never allow anyone else to steal his lime light (except maybe Olsen).  Kirk and Gallup have a much better chance of making an immediate splash IMO.

 

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Agree - love the player and love his dynasty outlook.  I'm sure he'll have some value in re-draft, but I'm not jumping the gun to grab him.  As you said, he's probably 4th in targets right now.  Maybe he'll wind up ahead of Funches, but still, the 3rd option with an inaccurate QB who likes to run, I don't think we see a monster year from Moore.  Late round flyer in redraft.

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2 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Love the player, but I'm convinced that Cam will never allow anyone else to steal his lime light (except maybe Olsen).  Kirk and Gallup have a much better chance of making an immediate splash IMO.

 

 

Do you mean you think he wouldn't allow one of his WRs to accrue stats (even though it would pad his stats in the process) because he wouldn't want competition in terms of popularity/acclaim?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Love the player, but I'm convinced that Cam will never allow anyone else to steal his lime light (except maybe Olsen).  Kirk and Gallup have a much better chance of making an immediate splash IMO.

 

 

Cam Newton had two words for his coach after the Carolina Panthers selected receiver D.J. Moore in the first round Thursday night:

"Thank you," Newton said in a text, Ron Rivera relayed to the media.

"It was cool to see him react the way he did," Rivera continued about Newton's response, via the team's official website. "We had a great time going through this process. Cam was just constantly needling us. ... Cam stays up on all this stuff, and he came to us with all the offensive guys."

The Panthers gave Newton a potential go-to target who could flourish out of the slot and do damage after the catch -- something they've sorely lacked since jettisoning Steve Smith Sr.

"He's just one of those guys that you just look at and say, 'Boy, is he a good football player,'" general manager Marty Hurney said of his new 6-foot receiver. "He's got the traits we're looking for.

Source: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000929312/article/cam-newton-thanks-ron-rivera-after-dj-moore-pick

Edited by mjb03003
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4 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Cam Newton had two words for his coach after the Carolina Panthers selected receiver D.J. Moore in the first round Thursday night:

"Thank you," Newton said in a text, Ron Rivera relayed to the media.

"It was cool to see him react the way he did," Rivera continued about Newton's response, via the team's official website. "We had a great time going through this process. Cam was just constantly needling us. ... Cam stays up on all this stuff, and he came to us with all the offensive guys."

The Panthers gave Newton a potential go-to target who could flourish out of the slot and do damage after the catch -- something they've sorely lacked since jettisoning Steve Smith Sr.

"He's just one of those guys that you just look at and say, 'Boy, is he a good football player,'" general manager Marty Hurney said of his new 6-foot receiver. "He's got the traits we're looking for.

Source: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000929312/article/cam-newton-thanks-ron-rivera-after-dj-moore-pick

 

Like I said, I love the player, but this is Cam's team.  Do with that what you will.  

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, mjb03003 said:

It's about time for all these rookies to start getting their own threads, especially first round picks who figure to have a decent role right out of the gate like DJ Moore. 

 

I'm excited by what I've read about Moore's athleticism, route running, and explosiveness. I'm concerned by the fact that he may be no better than 4th in the pecking order for targets (behind Olsen, McCaffrey, and Funchess), and the fact that Cam Newton is historically inaccurate which could negate Moore's route running and the separation he creates. 

 

As with most rookies, I'm much more intrigued by his dynasty outlook than his redraft outlook, since Olsen and even Funchess may not be long for the Panthers, and Moore is just 21 years and 4 months old and figures to get every opportunity to establish himself as the team's alpha WR. 

 

What say you people? Is there room within this thread to talk about his redraft AND keeper/dynasty outlook? 

 

 

From what I've seen & the material I have is much like what's sourced there, Moore's a ripped, quick-twitch athlete with a contagious attitude & work ethic. Early entry, borderline size & length to win on the perimeter, isn't likely to become their z-slot primary. But a compact, physical & RB-esque type as a ball-carrier through the 2nd tier. Very quick to separate, often ran a crosser, curl or screen option to exploit his after the catch ability. Which accordingly, is exactly how Carolina intends to use him. I've read that he's hard to gauge on the wing because the QB play was so bad.

 

Early entry lacking a nuanced & extensive route tree, but possesses the mindset of a player who's coachable. That plus familiarity & the fact that he's there to fill a void, his transition may be more seamless than what we may think. We know they want to get the ball out of Newton's hands quicker & drafting Moore makes perfect sense. As noted, seems unlikely he becomes their leading receiver, but could end up as their leading WR after midseason. I agree with the consensus, Meredith and a number of others, they're going to be drafted and for good reason. But Moore is a guy to keep a very close eye on.  

Edited by markrc99
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Moore is worthy of keeping a close eye on, but he'll always have competition from CMC for "best WR on the team."  CMC was definitely that last season.

 

The best anyone has done catching the ball in the Cam era was probably Benjamin his rookie season, and that was a unique circumstance (he was the only serviceable target outside of Olsen that year).

 

I just have no confidence in Cam's willingness or ability to make a fantasy WR1 out of anybody.  Rice in his heyday would be a WR2/WR3 catching the stuff that Cam throws around when he's not running for 1st downs or scores.

 

I say nothing changes.  Cam, Olsen and CMC are the only ones I want (for the right price) in PPR.

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Posted (edited)

Ehh, he paid off Benjamin in his rookie year, and had at least a couple good years with Steve Smith.  Even Funchess did ok last year, and I recall Ginn having a good TD year there once.  Its not unheard of for Cam to make a WR a fantasy starter.   

 

What i do agree with is those wondering how the offense can get enough people fed.   Somebody of this top 4 including Moore is going to have to disappoint deeply.    I know its obvious to think the existing three go-tos keep their role, but it wouldnt surprise me to see Olsen fade a bit, or Funchess to regress.    NTM, CJ Anderson's presence should allow them to keep being at least run-pass balanced, if not run heavy overall.

Edited by BrianM
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A "fantasy starter" and a WR1 are very different in my book.  I don't know if SSS or Benjamin ever squeaked into WR1 territory PPG in PPR, but generally speaking, Cam is incapable of producing a WR1.

 

No one thinks Moore can be a WR1 his rookie year under any circumstances, but you get the point.  Cam won't be the guy to help Moore reach his rookie ceiling, whatever that might be.

 

By contrast, it wouldn't shock me to see Bradford/Rosen feed Kirk consistently, or Dak look for Gallup frequently in the RZ.  I bet even Trubisky will connect with Miller more than Cam connects with Moore.

 

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

From what I've seen & the material I have is much like what's sourced there, Moore's a ripped, quick-twitch athlete with a contagious attitude & work ethic. Early entry, borderline size & length to win on the perimeter, isn't likely to become their z-slot primary. But a compact, physical & RB-esque type as a ball-carrier through the 2nd tier. Very quick to separate, often ran a crosser, curl or screen option to exploit his after the catch ability. Which accordingly, is exactly how Carolina intends to use him. I've read that he's hard to gauge on the wing because the QB play was so bad.

 

Early entry lacking a nuanced & extensive route tree, but possesses the mindset of a player who's coachable. That plus familiarity & the fact that he's there to fill a void, his transition may be more seamless than what we may think. We know they want to get the ball out of Newton's hands quicker & drafting Moore makes perfect sense. As noted, seems unlikely he becomes their leading receiver, but could end up as their leading WR after midseason. I agree with the consensus, Meredith and a number of others, they're going to be drafted and for good reason. But Moore is a guy to keep a very close eye on.  

 

Very underrated post. I get the feeling that Panthers run a pretty basic route tree for their WRs and need quick twitch guys or guys who are bigger than corners to where on a slant Cam can just rip the ball up high. I’ll be rooting for DJ Moore. 

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9 hours ago, boltup15 said:

"Very underrated post. I get the feeling the Panthers run a pretty basic route tree for their WRs and need quick twitch guys or guys who are bigger than corners to where on a slant Cam can just rip the ball up high. I’ll be rooting for DJ Moore." 

 

Appreciate the plug! e; Seems there's a number of us here who'll be monitoring Moore's progress. If that article mjb posted is any indication, the team is already high on him. I don't think they took him because they thought he was the BPA or that they were thin at WR and viewed him as quality depth, although they clearly do. I can't speak to Newton's accuracy, but if that narrative hinges on completion %, a tendency of the Air-Coryell system is to take a lot of deep shots. It's not as prominent as it once was & Norv Turner may represent their last attempt at making it work. A go-to guy in the short zone is what was missing & it seems they view Moore as filling that void. 

 

They may be confident that Moore will get himself up to speed pretty quickly, which happens. Smith-Schuster broke out big in week 7, Cooper Kupp had his first 100 yd performance in week 12. Some of these guys end up with WR2 or 3 type season-long figures, but sometimes it's actually WR1 production in a shorter span of games. A rookie WR, Newton, that system, it doesn't add up. I don't expect to draft Moore but I do see him as an early target once the season begins. I see him as a need selection & he's going to play. Five, 6 or 8 to 10 games in, watch out for him!  

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1 hour ago, markrc99 said:

 

Appreciate the plug! e; Seems there's a number of us here who'll be monitoring Moore's progress. If that article mjb posted is any indication, the team is already high on him. I don't think they took him because they thought he was the BPA or that they were thin at WR and viewed him as quality depth, although they clearly do. I can't speak to Newton's accuracy, but if that narrative hinges on completion %, a tendency of the Air-Coryell system is to take a lot of deep shots. It's not as prominent as it once was & Norv Turner may represent their last attempt at making it work. A go-to guy in the short zone is what was missing & it seems they view Moore as filling that void. 

 

They may be confident that Moore will get himself up to speed pretty quickly, which happens. Smith-Schuster broke out big in week 7, Cooper Kupp had his first 100 yd performance in week 12. Some of these guys end up with WR2 or 3 type season-long figures, but sometimes it's actually WR1 production in a shorter span of games. A rookie WR, Newton, that system, it doesn't add up. I don't expect to draft Moore but I do see him as an early target once the season begins. I see him as a need selection & he's going to play. Five, 6 or 8 to 10 games in, watch out for him!  

 

I agree with your post, and your earlier post, yet realistically I see Moore as the dynasty grab, and I don't think he'll have the Smith-Schuster kind of breakout (i.e. reliable late-season WR2 rostering). Olsen's injury last year was his first since 1993 (or 1893, or something like that---he's gone 9 straight seasons without an injury); he's 33 but just signed his 3-year contract, and we have every reason to believe Olsen and Cam will be back to 80 receptions / 1000-yard season. CMcC is also due for his 80 receptions as they continually push for his development as a receiver. I'm not suggesting that Funchess dominates as a WR, or that TSmith has a legit fantasy role next season, just that Cam's mobility is always a consideration, and that the Panthers are a team emphasizing passing to non-WRs more than most teams. This limits Moore during 2018.

 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

"... I don't think he'll have the Smith-Schuster kind of breakout (i.e. reliable late-season WR2 rostering). ... we have every reason to believe Olsen and Cam will be back to 80 receptions / 1000-yard season. CMcC is also due for his 80 receptions as they continually push for his development as a receiver....  Cam's mobility is always a consideration, and that the Panthers are a team emphasizing passing to non-WRs more than most teams. This limits Moore during 2018."

 

There's no doubt about Olsen in Turner's offense. But the part about them opting to feature non-WRs, I don't get. Getting vertical is a key aspect of the Air-Coryell philosophy & now they've turned to one of remaining gurus, Norv Turner. I could easily have this all wrong, but if that's what they want to continue doing, why bother with him? If they had a strong presence on the wing and didn't use them, I could see it, but they didn't. Why emphasize taking a WR in the 1st rd? If they're already attacking the short-intermediate zones, why are they looking to get the ball out of Newton's hands sooner?

 

With respect to McCaffrey, it's difficult to set him in the I & then for him to get well into the pattern & pressure any depth of coverage. Conversely, anytime they'd line him up as a rec'r, there goes your key weapon in the backfield along with any semblance of balance. Not always & I'm referring largely to multi-WR sets, but now with Moore there, McCaffrey can give them the presence they want in the backfield. McCaffrey still gets his touches, still very effective, just that with Moore & even perhaps Samuel factoring, he's utilized differently.              

Edited by markrc99

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2 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

There's no doubt about Olsen in Turner's offense. But the part about them opting to feature non-WRs, I don't get. Getting vertical is a key aspect of the Air-Coryell philosophy & now they've turned to one of remaining gurus, Norv Turner. I could easily have this all wrong, but if that's what they want to continue doing, why bother with him? If they had a strong presence on the wing and didn't use them, I could see it, but they didn't. Why emphasize taking a WR in the 1st rd? If they're already attacking the short-intermediate zones, why are they looking to get the ball out of Newton's hands sooner?

 

With respect to McCaffrey, it's difficult to set him in the I & then for him to get well into the pattern & pressure any depth of coverage. Conversely, anytime they'd line him up as a rec'r, there goes your key weapon in the backfield along with any semblance of balance. Not always & I'm referring largely to multi-WR sets, but now with Moore there, McCaffrey can give them the presence they want in the backfield. McCaffrey still gets his touches, still very effective, just that with Moore & even perhaps Samuel factoring, he's utilized differently.              

 

Good points, though don’t be surprised to find CJA in the backfield and CMcC lined up a receiver. 

 

That said, even with CMcC in the backfield, consider Cam throwing the ball 480-490 times in 2019. Half of these targets will go to McCaffrey and Olsen; even within a new offense, we can say half will go to non-WRs——additional TEs and RBs getting scraps, bulk to Cam’s main / preferred weapons:

 

113 targets to CMcC last year

127 targets to Olsen (average over his last two full seasons, 2015, 2016)

 

240 targets to spread around the WR corps. 

 

Across the league, it’s very rare to see this distribution, 50% to RB/TE. Generally, it’s closer to half this amount, though there are some teams who push TE receptions from the average 15% up to 20%, and very rarely the Olsen level of 25% (Kelce). Buffalo is throwing the ball to the TE/RB combo at 30% (2016-2017 averaged), and this is higher than the 20-25% from the majority of teams, significantly lower than the 50% we might expect from the Panthers. Even if this distribution decreases by 10% (because really we haven’t seen a healthy Olsen playing a full season with CMcC), it’s still miles above the majority of teams and hamstrings the WRs corps potential/production.

 

Of course predictions in fantasy are themselves a fantasy, because we never truly know until December, and then it seems so clear, yet it’s not far-fetched extrapolate based on previous seasons and conclude that a Panthers WR corps will receive significantly less targets than the league majority. My two cents. 

 

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

"Good points, though don’t be surprised to find CJA in the backfield and CMcC lined up a receiver. 

 

That said, even with CMcC in the backfield, consider Cam throwing the ball 480-490 times in 2019. Half of these targets will go to McCaffrey and Olsen; even within a new offense, we can say half will go to non-WRs——additional TEs and RBs getting scraps, bulk to Cam’s main / preferred weapons:

 

113 targets to CMcC last year

127 targets to Olsen (average over his last two full seasons, 2015, 2016)

240 targets to spread around the WR corps. 

 

Across the league, it’s very rare to see this distribution, 50% to RB/TE. Generally, it’s closer to half this amount, though there are some teams who push TE receptions from the average 15% up to 20%, and very rarely the Olsen level of 25% (Kelce). Buffalo is throwing the ball to the TE/RB combo at 30% (2016-2017 averaged), and this is higher than the 20-25% from the majority of teams, significantly lower than the 50% we might expect from the Panthers. Even if this distribution decreases by 10% (because really we haven’t seen a healthy Olsen playing a full season with CMcC), it’s still miles above the majority of teams and hamstrings the WRs corps potential/production.

 

Of course predictions in fantasy are themselves a fantasy, because we never truly know until December, and then it seems so clear, yet it’s not far-fetched extrapolate based on previous seasons and conclude that a Panthers WR corps will receive significantly less targets than the league majority. My two cents." 

 

Well said & it makes perfect sense, where the ball actually ends up matters. If they want to turn that around, was adding DJ Moore & Norv Turner enough? Fair to assume that even if they do become more diversified, Olsen & McCaffrey remain the key guys to own. I'm not trying to suggest a major +/- from those guys to Moore, rather, their presence helps him. I've looked at a distribution chart, last year's data on McCaffrey showing that he caught a lot of balls in the short zone. You may also want to consider an article written by James Koh in late October, pointing out that in 2016 Cam Newton was ranked 1st in air yards & attempted air yards, both! Last year was a precipitous drop out of the upper half in both categories. 

 

What even QBs forget is that short, instant separation type routes, where the rec'r is the primary, go stale very quickly. While McCaffrey & perhaps the others were 'targeted" short, it doesn't mean they were the primary read in Newton's progression. It doesn't make sense that his air yards were down considerably and yet, they want the ball out of his hands sooner... Could be that McCaffrey ran a lot of complementary routes or was the check-down. Perhaps I should rephrase:

 

If I understand correctly, you're suggesting that this is a dink & dunk offense by design. I believe there's considerable evidence to the contrary. The OCs before Turner were from the same philosophical tree, pound the rock & aggressively take shots downfield. Newton's 2016 air yard stats support that contention. I'm considering last year to have been an aberration, Newton looked to go vertical but the WR/TE play wasn't there. They've seen enough & decided to move Benjamin. Devin Funchess now settles in as their z-slot primary. They get Olsen & Samuel back & now have added DJ Moore. Bringing in Norv Turner is a double-down on their current philosophy.  Only rookie QBs avg 30 pass attempts per, so your floor of 480 is too low.           

 

If they place Moore on the wing, which I think will take time, I'm probably out. But if they use him in a manner that he's familiar with, look out. Anderson is a base grouping guy & even there I think he has short leash. He has to play better to get anywhere near the kind of volume that's been suggested.

 

 

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I was not a huge fan of Moore the prospect, but his dynasty ADP feels fair, if not a slot too low. He's WR36 - right above Bryant an right below Woods. That feels like a good buy for a 1st round pick who has a huge target potential. Are we taking Funchess in the 6th or Moore in the 7th?

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Funchess is a free agent at the end of the year. Greg Olsen could be on the verge of pulling a Jason Witten and going into broadcasting, either way he'll be 34 going into next season.

I sort of agree with everyone that I'd temper expectations in redraft but in Dynasty, I really like the kid. Apparently at OTAs they've been lining him up everywhere, he talked about it on the Panthers youtube page, described himself as a "chess piece out there." I like that.

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The Panthers' official website believes first-round WR D.J. Moore is "more than ready to contribute."

In-house writer Max Henson described Moore as "smooth" during an impressive minicamp. An elite athlete who stuffed the stat-sheet in the Big 10, Moore makes his name after the catch. He should begin the season as a starter opposite Devin Funchess.
 
 
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Everybody in this thread is making good points about DJ Moore's outlook.  But, man, there is a lot to like about the kid and his situation.  And the price is right.  I predict that he will be WAY more expensive to acquire in fantasy prior to 2019.

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I love DJ Moore and think the offensive talent on this team is really intriguing.  Would not mind one bit having him as my last WR.

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On 6/15/2018 at 8:06 AM, SharkSwimmer said:

Everybody in this thread is making good points about DJ Moore's outlook.  But, man, there is a lot to like about the kid and his situation.  And the price is right.  I predict that he will be WAY more expensive to acquire in fantasy prior to 2019.

 

I disagree. Between Olsen (signed through 2019), Funchess, and McCaffrey, Moore's target ceiling is very low. And that assumes that Torrey Smith and Curtis Samuel both do absolutely nothing. Moore should be a lot cheaper this time next year, especially with the hype that will surround the 2019 rookie WR class.

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On 5/11/2018 at 10:53 AM, markrc99 said:

 

From what I've seen & the material I have is much like what's sourced there, Moore's ripped

 

Sold.  

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

And that assumes that Torrey Smith and Curtis Samuel both do absolutely nothing

I'd say that's pretty likely.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

I disagree. Between Olsen (signed through 2019), Funchess, and McCaffrey, Moore's target ceiling is very low. And that assumes that Torrey Smith and Curtis Samuel both do absolutely nothing. Moore should be a lot cheaper this time next year, especially with the hype that will surround the 2019 rookie WR class.

Olsen is on the down-swing.  Will Olsen even make it through the season?  Funchess produced okay numbers last year, but that was mostly because Carolina had no one else.  I think McCaffrey is a nice receiving back but he's not Larry Centers or anything.  Torrey Smith is pretty well established as a one trick pony deep threat.  Samuels is already banged up again, and we are not even past minicamp.

Edited by SharkSwimmer

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