kidtwentytwo

Freddy Peralta 2018 Outlook

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Can't make it through 4 innings v the Marlins. See ya.

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9 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

Can't make it through 4 innings v the Marlins. See ya.

 

Someone will gladly pick him up 

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He also didn't have to deal with Realmuto in the lineup tonight, not the start people were hoping for. If he has any loss in velo game to game and can't consistently thrown any other pitches effectively, going to be a bumpy ride. 

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On 7/1/2018 at 1:59 PM, The Waker said:

 

Yup.  This actually makes me more confident in him moving forward.  He's a rookie and he's going to have these games sometimes where he starts terribly (everyone does)  Instead of pulling a Pivetta and giving up 7 ER, he stayed mentally sharp and K'd the side and then went on to have a great rest of the game.  Could have had a QS potentially if not for the rain delay.

Today's start was almost exactly the same as the start you referenced in that quote. Bad command, one bad inning and a quick hook, with the end result being a poor overall performance.

7/1 - 21 batters faced, 3 BB, 3 ER, velocity down ( <= =the game you wrote that post about) 

7/11 - 18 batters faced, 3 BB, 3 ER, velocity down ( <== today's game)

The only major difference is that this time the damage came in a different inning.

 

So, does this start make you feel more confident in him going forward?

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Never had a start where he's allowed more hits than innings pitched.  I think that statistic speaks very highly of opponents inability to square Peralta up. 

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1 hour ago, Magnus88 said:

Never had a start where he's allowed more hits than innings pitched.  I think that statistic speaks very highly of opponents inability to square Peralta up. 

Thats true, but lots of guys who have great stuff and no idea where its going are tough to square up.  4BB/9ip is a serious problem.

A double digit walk rate is not going to work out long term for a starting pitcher... at least not a fantasy relevant one.

 

 

If you sort the FG SP leader board by WAR you'll find that none of the top 30, and just 5 of the top 60 SP have a BB rate above 4BB/9...  those guys are :

Newcomb, Gio Gonzalez, Lopez, Odorizzi, Godley

 

There are only 7 qualified starters in MLB who have a BB rate above 10% and an ERA under 4.00, and Freddy's BB rate is worse than all of them.

In fact, as of now Peralta has a worse BB% than every single qualified starter in MLB other than one Mr. Lucas Giolito.

 

I know players can improve, but the current peer groups that Peralta finds himself in are not very encouraging.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, cs3 said:

Today's start was almost exactly the same as the start you referenced in that quote. Bad command, one bad inning and a quick hook, with the end result being a poor overall performance.

7/1 - 21 batters faced, 3 BB, 3 ER, velocity down ( <= =the game you wrote that post about) 

7/11 - 18 batters faced, 3 BB, 3 ER, velocity down ( <== today's game)

The only major difference is that this time the damage came in a different inning.

 

So, does this start make you feel more confident in him going forward?

 

The difference being, like everyone pointed out to you, he had a disastrous first inning the first game.  Not just “a different inning”. Thats huge mentally on a young picture.  Why is the importance of that so hard for you to understand? 

 

And lmao where were you after he dominated the Braves?  

 

I bet you were licking your chops before that one.

 

His ERA is now a whopping 2.65 and WHIP .96.  FIP is 2.67 and XFIP 3.55.  X/9 is now 12.65. 

 

Even his bad starts haven’t really hurt his owners much, and his good starts have been spectacular.

 

Edited by The Waker

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47 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

The difference being, like everyone pointed out to you, he had a disastrous first inning the first game.  Not just “a different inning”. Thats huge mentally on a young picture.  Why is the importance of that so hard for you to understand? 

 

And lmao where were you after he dominated the Braves?  

 

I bet you were licking your chops before that one.

 

His ERA is now a whopping 2.65 and WHIP .96.  FIP is 2.67 and XFIP 3.55.  X/9 is now 12.65. 

 

Even his bad starts haven’t really hurt his owners much, and his good starts have been spectacular.

 

He’s a good but inconsistent rookie pitcher with a great K rate and middling control. 

 

you're nuts biased if you keep rationalizing these meh starts. (2 out of last 3)

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He walked the 8th and 9th (pitcher) place hitters tonight. When he avoids 1st inning blow-ups and has his control, he seems to dominate. However, he also seems to have an issue where he beats himself. A guy who's allowing a .144 BAA with a 12.05 k/9 is a must-hold, even with a bad start or two. But, he's obviously going to need to command his pitches better if he's going to be truly successful. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Magoo said:

He’s a good but inconsistent rookie pitcher with a great K rate and middling control. 

 

you're nuts biased if you keep rationalizing these meh starts. (2 out of last 3)

 

Hes a great SP6 or 7 right now with lots of potential.  I’m not saying he’s an ace or SP2 or 3.  These meh starts aren’t good but they aren’t terrible starts that a Dylan Bundy or Pivetta etc give you every few starts 

Edited by The Waker

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1 hour ago, The Waker said:

 

Hes a great SP6 or 7 right now with lots of potential.  I’m not saying he’s an ace or SP2 or 3.  These meh starts aren’t good but they aren’t terrible starts that a Dylan Bundy or Pivetta etc give you every few starts 

Agreed but his rookie “upside” and crazy sample size stats are making him a no brainer sell imo.

 

what kind of stats do you give him with 10 more starts?

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

Agreed but his rookie “upside” and crazy sample size stats are making him a no brainer sell imo.

 

what kind of stats do you give him with 10 more starts?

 

I doubt you’d get much selling.  Overall or just next 10? Just next 10 I’d bet 3.5 ERA 1.15 WHIP with 10+ K’s/9.

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In literally half of his starts, he’s had an ERA of 5.40 or above and a WHIP of 1.60 or above.

 

I’m taking the over on that line.

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22 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

I doubt you’d get much selling.  Overall or just next 10? Just next 10 I’d bet 3.5 ERA 1.15 WHIP with 10+ K’s/9.

No chance, especially with that WHIP.

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, BMcP said:

In literally half of his starts, he’s had an ERA of 5.40 or above and a WHIP of 1.60 or above.

 

I’m taking the over on that line.

 

What about the other half?

 

As with any young pitcher like this, the odds are he won't keep it up.  But he's not hurting you that much when he has bad games and his good games (4 of 7) make him worth the risk.

Edited by The Waker

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, BMcP said:

In literally half of his starts, he’s had an ERA of 5.40 or above and a WHIP of 1.60 or above.

 

I’m taking the over on that line.

 

Also, why don't you take the worst half of some other pitchers' starts this season and get their ERA.  I'd bet any pitcher not in the top 20 will be just as bad or worse.

Edited by The Waker
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Optioned to the minors but I wouldn't read much into it. He wasn't going to start again before the break, so Brewers could use his roster spot for someone who'll play. I'm pretty sure he'll be right back up post-ASB. 

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 I love the cherry pickers in  these forums lol

 

 “ well if you take All of pitcher x’s good starts out,  his numbers look horrible!!!”

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42 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

Also, why don't you take the worst half of some other pitchers' starts this season and get their ERA.  I'd bet any pitcher not in the top 20 will be just as bad or worse.

Well considering you've projected him to have top 20 numbers over the next 10 games, highlighting that half is starts are below average is a very valid and responsive point.

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8 minutes ago, aMediumPace said:

 I love the cherry pickers in  these forums lol

 

 “ well if you take All of pitcher x’s good starts out,  his numbers look horrible!!!”

 

Pointing out that a pitcher has a terrible start literally half the time isn’t “cherry-picking.”  It’s just accepting reality.

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49 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

Also, why don't you take the worst half of some other pitchers' starts this season and get their ERA.  I'd bet any pitcher not in the top 20 will be just as bad or worse.

 

Zack Greinke...ranked 21st by Yahoo...6 of 19 starts with a 5.00 ERA or higher.

Rick Porcello...22nd...5/19 starts.

Lance McCullers...23rd...3/19 starts.

Marco Gonzalez...24th...8/19 starts.

Tyler Skaggs...25th...3/16 starts.

Zach Eflin...26th...3/12 starts.

Stephen Strasburg...27th...4/13 starts.

Eduardo Rodriguez...28th...6/18 starts.

Clayton Kershaw...29th...2/12 starts.

Junior Guerra...30th...4/17 starts.

Kenta Maeda...31st...6/16 starts.

Anibal Sanchez...32nd...2/10 starts.

Freddy Peralta...33rd...3/7 starts.

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6 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Well considering you've projected him to have top 20 numbers over the next 10 games, highlighting that half is starts are below average is a very valid and responsive point.

 

This brings up a good point.  Over the last 30 days, in which he's started full time, he is the #12 ranked SP on ESPN

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Zack Greinke...ranked 21st by Yahoo...6 of 19 starts with a 5.00 ERA or higher.

Rick Porcello...22nd...5/19 starts.

Lance McCullers...23rd...3/19 starts.

Marco Gonzalez...24th...8/19 starts.

Tyler Skaggs...25th...3/16 starts.

Zach Eflin...26th...3/12 starts.

Stephen Strasburg...27th...4/13 starts.

Eduardo Rodriguez...28th...6/18 starts.

Clayton Kershaw...29th...2/12 starts.

Junior Guerra...30th...4/17 starts.

Kenta Maeda...31st...6/16 starts.

Anibal Sanchez...32nd...2/10 starts.

Freddy Peralta...33rd...3/7 starts.

 

LOL this isn't what I asked and is a complete distortion of the data.  Take the worst half of all those pitchers starts, and calculate their ERA.  When pitchers go over 5.00 it's usually by a lot so what you posted is misleading.

 

For example, if you look at Eduardo Rodriguez's (first player I chose) last 10 games, if you take his 5 worst, his ERA is 6.47.

 

Next player I chose was Greinke: ERA is 5.98

Edited by The Waker

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1 minute ago, The Waker said:

 

LOL this isn't what I asked.  Take the worst half of all those pitchers starts, and calculate their ERA.  When pitchers go over 5.00 it's usually by a lot.

 

Instead of ordering @Flyman75 to do all your work for you, why don’t you do it yourself?!  You’re the one trying to prove a point.

 

I, for one, appreciate the illustration that good SPs do not have nearly as high a percentage of terrible starts as you are suggesting.

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