kidtwentytwo

Freddy Peralta 2018 Outlook

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There are more useful stats to look at than good starts vs. bad starts.

 

Peralta has a 48% flyball rate and a 38.2% hard contact rate, yet is only allowing 0.48 HR/9. That's likely to go up. His .216 BABIP is also likely to increase. But the biggest issue is his walks - he's always had control issues in the minors, and he's got a 4.34 BB/9, including 9 walks in 14.2 IP over his last 3 starts.

 

I like Peralta long-term but he's far from a finished product. He relies on one pitch 80% of the time, walks a lot of batters and gives up a lot of flyballs. There's likely some growing pains coming soon. I wouldn't feel good about relying on him in the 2nd half.

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6 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

There are more useful stats to look at than good starts vs. bad starts.

 

Peralta has a 48% flyball rate and a 38.2% hard contact rate, yet is only allowing 0.48 HR/9. That's likely to go up. His .216 BABIP is also likely to increase. But the biggest issue is his walks - he's always had control issues in the minors, and he's got a 4.34 BB/9, including 9 walks in 14.2 IP over his last 3 starts.

 

I like Peralta long-term but he's far from a finished product. He relies on one pitch 80% of the time, walks a lot of batters and gives up a lot of flyballs. There's likely some growing pains coming soon. I wouldn't feel good about relying on him in the 2nd half.

 

I agree completely. I was just trying to give the guy what he wanted and decided it wasn't worth the effort to do the ERAs, as well. 

 

He does need to bring his walks down. Free passes kill young pitchers. I was impressed by how he battled on the road against Cincy, but he does have a ways to go. I like the talent, and I hope he can harness it. 

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28 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

This brings up a good point.  Over the last 30 days, in which he's started full time, he is the #12 ranked SP on ESPN

What’s your point?

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6 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Just got optioned back to AAA.

I think single A so travel is minimized. 

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1 minute ago, Magoo said:

I think single A so travel is minimized. 

 

Yeah, I read it wrong. Looks like they just want him to throw during the all-star break to stay fresh, and he should be back in Milwaukee afterwards.

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1 minute ago, The Waker said:

 

That's pretty impressive IMO

No one doubts the talent and performance so far. But that means LITERALLY nothing projecting him going forward.

 

The fly ball percentage plus low HR/FB scares me the most.

 

For full disclosure I own him in 4/7 leagues, so consider that my unbiased and glass literally half empty take.

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1 minute ago, Magoo said:

No one doubts the talent and performance so far. But that means LITERALLY nothing projecting him going forward.

 

The fly ball percentage plus low HR/FB scares me the most.

 

For full disclosure I own him in 4/7 leagues, so consider that my unbiased and glass literally half empty take.

 

Of course it doesn't.  But it shows his ridiculous potential.  He's had 2 bad (not awful) starts in those 30 days out of 5.  That means those other 3 starts were good enough to overcome those 2 to make him ranked 12th, even with 1 or 2 less starts than everyone else.  2 of the starts were incredible and one very good.

 

6 IP: 2 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 7 K's

7 IP: 1 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 10 K's

6 IP (vs Braves): 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K's

 

Obviously he has some control issues pop up.  If he can't fix it he may not be worth the roller coaster ride.  But if he can than look out.

 

Re HR/FB: If you assume he's been lucky and this will change and go back to a standard 10%, his XFIP gives you an ERA of 3.55.  Not nearly as good but not too bad.  His FIP is right at his normal ERA of 2.65

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6 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

Of course it doesn't.  But it shows his ridiculous potential.  He's had 2 bad (not awful) starts in those 30 days out of 5.  That means those other 3 starts were good enough to overcome those 2 to make him ranked 12th, even with 1 or 2 less starts than everyone else.  2 of the starts were incredible and one very good.

 

6 IP: 2 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 7 K's

7 IP: 1 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 10 K's

6 IP (vs Braves): 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K's

 

Obviously he has some control issues pop up.  If he can't fix it he may not be worth the roller coaster ride.  But if he can than look out.

 

Re HR/FB: If you assume he's been lucky and this will change and go back to a standard 10%, his XFIP gives you an ERA of 3.55.  Not nearly as good but not too bad.  His FIP is right at his normal ERA of 2.65

Not buying those starts control wise. And obvious BABIP regression won’t be captured by FIP. ERA going forward realistically is going to be much closer to 4-4.5.

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Just now, Magoo said:

Not buying those starts control wise. And obvious BABIP regression won’t be captured by FIP. ERA going forward realistically is going to be much closer to 4-4.5.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if that happened.  But there's a reason you still have him in 4/7 leagues.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Does anyone really care what Peralta’s career trajectory looks like? 

Wat

 

 

Everyone who owns him in a keeper or dynasty does, and I assume the majority of people on this board play in at least one such league, if not multiple.

 

 

The point is, he seems like a clear sell to me, but obv lots of people in this thread disagree

Edited by cs3

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[Several removed.  @The Waker and @cs3, we've had enough of the personal attacks and snide remarks.  If you can't make your case without attacking other community members, your posting privileges will be suspended.]

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6 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Wat

 

 

Everyone who owns him in a keeper or dynasty does, and I assume the majority of people on this board play in at least one such league, if not multiple.

 

 

The point is, he seems like a clear sell to me, but obv lots of people in this thread disagree

My point was that I don’t think he should be looked at as a keeper option and his outlook should just be about this year but I guess that doesn’t matter since my post got deleted.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, meh2 said:

My point was that I don’t think he should be looked at as a keeper option and his outlook should just be about this year but I guess that doesn’t matter since my post got deleted.

 

He’s only 22.  If he’s doing well enough for people to care about him this year why wouldn’t they care about him as a keeper option?   

Edited by The Waker

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