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kidtwentytwo

Freddy Peralta 2018 Outlook

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39 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

Lance Lynn made a living off of 1 pitch for years so it’s possible. 

 

As did Bartolo Colon, aka big sexy.

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14 minutes ago, rrrrich46 said:

What is his ceiling? SP2? Nice Ks?

I’ve added him across the board but I don’t think a ceiling of SP2 is realistic. He’s a rookie pitcher, he doesn’t seem to work late in games, his bb/9 in the minors is over 4, if he sticks half his games will be in a hitter’s ballpark, and with his repertoire I think hitters will have more success against him the more they face him. Maybe if things break right he’ll finish in the 45-65 range of starting pitchers. Just my guess though.

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As for the concerns about the dominance of his fastball, a Brewers writer tweeted that he thought Statcast didn't know how to identify Peralta's pitches properly yet. Suggested that there's a four seam fastball that comes in at 93-94 with late movement and then also more of a cutter-type pitch that tends to run 90-91 but moves a little more. Statcast was apparently calling them the same pitch, hence the 91% fastball outcome.

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1 minute ago, meh2 said:

I’ve added him across the board but I don’t think a ceiling of SP2 is realistic. He’s a rookie pitcher, he doesn’t seem to work late in games, his bb/9 in the minors is over 4, if he sticks half his games will be in a hitter’s ballpark, and with his repertoire I think hitters will have more success against him the more they face him. Maybe if things break right he’ll finish in the 45-65 range of starting pitchers. Just my guess though.

 

Any pitcher who gets 13 K's and 0 ER in 5.2 IP at Coors has a higher ceiling than 45-65.

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Looks like he is slated vs Romero in Minnesota . Anyone throwing him out there ?

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4 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

Any pitcher who gets 13 K's and 0 ER in 5.2 IP at Coors has a higher ceiling than 45-65.

I prefer to base my opinions on a sample size of more than 5.2 innings. Pat Rapp and Chad Bettis have two of the highest game scores in Coors Field history and I’m pretty sure neither of them came close to an SP2.

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11 hours ago, jahweedum said:

His numbers this year - out of Colorado Springs

 

34.2 IP, 3.63 ERA, 17BB/46K, with 30 hits and 1 HR allowed

(He allowed 77 hits and 8 HR with 62 BB/169K in 120 AA innings the year before)

 

So how does that profile out - talented, but scary and frustrating at times?  I see more points league appeal than Roto maybe

 

Bolded above is the most interesting part to me - Colorado Springs is another 1000 ft further above sea level than even Coors.  By comparison, in AA Peralta put up a 2.26 ERA at a more "normal" altitude (with a 2.31 FIP, so not luck induced), along with a 12.86 K/9.  So even his AAA ERA this year is likely somewhat inflated by ballpark.

 

Couple that with how great he did at Coors in his debut, and things are looking pretty promising for Peralta.  

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I prefer to base my opinions on a sample size of more than 5.2 innings. Pat Rapp and Chad Bettis have two of the highest game scores in Coors Field history and I’m pretty sure neither of them came close to an SP2.

 

Well we are talking about ceilings.  That makes the small sample size a little more meaningful than say for an actual prediction.  Also his minor league numbers are very good.

Edited by The Waker

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Good read on Peralta if you haven't seen it yet.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/5/13/17349350/quick-scouting-report-on-milwaukee-brewers-call-up-freddy-peralta

 

excerpts:

 

  • "3.31 ERA across an even 400.0 professional innings."
  • Hitters could barely touch Peralta’s stuff last year, not only striking out at a clip of 12.7 K/9, but batters registered only 5.8 H/9 all season."
  • " At the time of his call-up, he was leading the PCL in winning decisions (5), strikeouts (46), and ranked first among starting pitchers with 11.9 K/9"
  • "he’s currently sporting a .345 BABIP after posting a .267 mark last season."
  • "Peralta’s best pitch is his fastball, which grades out as plus from most evaluators. typically works in the 89-92 MPH range and usually tops out around 94. He can manipulate just about any way he wants - he can cut it, sink it, run it, and accurately place it in various spots all over the zone."

 

 

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So vs Romero who’s hot as well you would go Peralta? 

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It may take a bit of time, but I have a feeling once the scouting reports catch up with him at the MLB level (i.e. make him throw a ton of pitches every at bat due to poor control), he's gong to be exposed. Certainly worth an add if you have a non-valuable player to drop, but it also may me a great time to try and sell high based on the initial results.

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1 hour ago, The Waker said:

 

Any pitcher who gets 13 K's and 0 ER in 5.2 IP at Coors has a higher ceiling than 45-65.

5 innings means absolutely nothing. Using your logic, every pitcher in baseball has a higher ceiling than 45-65.

 

 

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when seeing opponents first time:

13.35k9/3.7bb9, 1.42era/1.01whip (31.2IP) (21.2IP in colo)

 

when seeing opponents 2nd time:

12.5k9/6.2bb9, 9.3era/2.08whip (8.2IP) (3.2IP in colo)

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, cs3 said:

5 innings means absolutely nothing. Using your logic, every pitcher in baseball has a higher ceiling than 45-65.

 

 

 

No, its not the same as any other pitcher, because it's the only 5.2 IP we have of him.  That is infinitely more meaningful than taking the best 5.2 IP from a pitcher with 600 career IP.

 

And it wasn't just a good 5.2 IP.  It was one of the most dominant performances of the season at the best hitters' park in the majors.   There probably aren't 45 pitchers in the majors even capable of getting 13 K's in 5.2 IP.

 

Plus, his minor league numbers are very good.

 

I'm not suggesting it's LIKELY he will be better than 45-65.  

Edited by The Waker
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Jor357 said:

So vs Romero who’s hot as well you would go Peralta? 

 

I like Romero just because of the more diverse arsenal in combination with top shelf velocity. 

 

Can't argue with Peraltas K numbers but he seems like a guy major leaguers will square up the second time around, at least enough he will always be a hit or miss guess as to whether he should be started or not. 

 

I do discount performances where teams haven't seen and don't have a real book on guys yet. 

Edited by treat88

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

5 innings means absolutely nothing. Using your logic, every pitcher in baseball has a higher ceiling than 45-65.

 

 


I mean, techinically he's right, I guess? I suppose every pitcher has the "upside" of best starter in fantasy baseball. Except Chris Tillman, that dude doesn't have a prayer. 

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Its also somewhat league dependent IMO.

 

A potential high K/suspect control guy on a good team can easily outpoint a "better" pitcher on a crappy team.

 

That was my thought process for picking him up.

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3 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:


I mean, techinically he's right, I guess? I suppose every pitcher has the "upside" of best starter in fantasy baseball. Except Chris Tillman, that dude doesn't have a prayer. 

 

Nice strawman

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3 hours ago, pbjfb said:

when seeing opponents first time:

13.35k9/3.7bb9, 1.42era/1.01whip (31.2IP) (21.2IP in colo)

 

when seeing opponents 2nd time:

12.5k9/6.2bb9, 9.3era/2.08whip (8.2IP) (3.2IP in colo)

Quite a SSS. That is like 2 games. Unless you are taking about seeing hitters a 2nd time through the lineup? I took it as facing a team a 2nd time. 

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4 hours ago, Jor357 said:

So vs Romero who’s hot as well you would go Peralta? 

 

He isn't going against Romero.  He is going against the Minnesota line-up where only Rosario scares me big time right now.

 

He is going for a QS (a lot of leagues use them instead of Wins) and/or possible W as well as K's, ERA and WHIP for his fantasy owner.

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3 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

He isn't going against Romero.  He is going against the Minnesota line-up where only Rosario scares me big time right now.

 

He is going for a QS (a lot of leagues use them instead of Wins) and/or possible W as well as K's, ERA and WHIP for his fantasy owner.

As long as that lineup includes Buxton flailing away I’ll be happy.

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