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Carlos Correa

Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

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So Soto is doing stuff only a handful of guys have done in the history of the game ...and his thread on RW is the one place you can come to find critiques. Tough crowd.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

Huh?  Jose Martinez is batting .293 with 13 homers.

 

 

 

Uhh ok.. so that’s about a low 20s HR pace

 

and Juan Soto is now hitting .305 and on pace for about high 20s in HRs extrapolated over 600 PAs. 

 

Are those sets of stats all that different?

Edited by UberRebel

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Just now, UberRebel said:

 

Uhh ok.. so that’s about a low 20s HR pace

 

and Juan Soto is now hitting .305 and on pace for about high 20s in HRs extrapolated over 600 PAs.

 

His BABIP and especially HR/FB won’t last.

 

3 minutes ago, hgh22 said:

So Soto is doing stuff only a handful of guys have done in the history of the game ...and his thread on RW is the one place you can come to find critiques. Tough crowd.

 

The critique is that right now he’s not all that special overall, even if what he’s doing as a 19 year old is.  Like I said earlier, those two things need to be viewed separately. 

 

He’s not winning anyone their league this year.  In redrafts he’s a good pick up but not what the hype suggest. 

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22 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

 

Uhh ok.. so that’s about a low 20s HR pace

 

and Juan Soto is now hitting .305 and on pace for about high 20s in HRs extrapolated over 600 PAs. 

 

Are those sets of stats all that different?

 Not if you play Roto. But for H2H yes totally different.

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Posted (edited)

He’s not that special overall...man.  I’ve seen some tough crowds in these player threads over the years, but never one quite this tough.  What does he need to do to earn “specialness” - hit 40 homers and slash .350/.450?

Edited by BMcP
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Posted (edited)

Sounds like I should be thinking about dropping this 966 OPS hittin bum. 

Edited by Cdub2k
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Posted (edited)

Do you watch his at bats Walker? Until he shows me he's getting beat and ML pitchers adjusted, he's a .300 hitter with pro-rated 30 HR potential THIS YEAR and a must start in one of the best lineups.

Edited by b0nfire
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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

He’s not that special overall...man.  I’ve seen some tough crowds in these player threads over the years, but never one quite this tough.  What does he need to do to earn “specialness” - hit 40 homers and slash .350/.450?

About the only thing that can be said negatively about Soto right now is that he's been boom or bust over the last couple of weeks, with not much in the way of production and then a good/monster game thrown in.

 

With that said, like b0nfire said, until he starts showing that he's overmatched, I don't see any reason to worry.  Sure, it would be nice to have some more good games thrown into the mix of late, but he still has a .966 OPS and 28 BB's to 31 K's.  He's still somebody I'm holding onto for dear life in my keeper league.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, b0nfire said:

Do you watch his at bats Walker? Until he shows me he's getting beat and ML pitchers adjusted, he's a .300 hitter with pro-rated 30 HR potential THIS YEAR and a must start in one of the best lineups.

 

Yes I have watched.  He is going to be a special player and he is even better this year in OPS/OBP leagues than standard.  But he's not even a top 50 hitter the last month in standard leagues.  My original response was to the post saying something about "there's no chatter after he goes 2/4 with 3 RBI cuz its just typical".  You'd think he was a top 10 hitter this year reading stuff like that.  I repeat, in keeper leagues he is better than Acuna or Vlad in my opinion.  He will be special one day (maybe 2 years from now).  It's just not this year, mostly because he's only 19 and doesn't steal.  The stats so far back that up.

Edited by The Waker
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20 hours ago, The Waker said:

 

The critique is that right now he’s not all that special overall, even if what he’s doing as a 19 year old is.  Like I said earlier, those two things need to be viewed separately. 

 

He’s not winning anyone their league this year.  In redrafts he’s a good pick up but not what the hype suggest. 

I completely agree with your first point in that the value difference in redrafts vs keepers is probably bigger than any other player. I think it’s fair to say that he’s doing some very remarkable things, but that doesn’t include carrying any fantasy teams. 

 

What i I don’t agree with is that he’s not living up to any hype. Anyone that expected him to do anything more than have the most successful start to a 19 year old debut was way off base with their expectations, and even what he is currently doing is extreme best case scenario. He’s living up to any reasonable person’s hype, and surpassing it if we’re being realistic. 

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What?  Did Soto have a huge game or something?  Oh, still talking about whether he's going to be a difference maker or not this season?  Silly me...

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1 hour ago, mavsfan23 said:

I completely agree with your first point in that the value difference in redrafts vs keepers is probably bigger than any other player. I think it’s fair to say that he’s doing some very remarkable things, but that doesn’t include carrying any fantasy teams. 

 

What i I don’t agree with is that he’s not living up to any hype. Anyone that expected him to do anything more than have the most successful start to a 19 year old debut was way off base with their expectations, and even what he is currently doing is extreme best case scenario. He’s living up to any reasonable person’s hype, and surpassing it if we’re being realistic. 

 

I agree with your second paragraph.  My point is that people (not everyone) are acting like he’s playing like a top 25 hitter.  He’s not.  His redraft value is decent but he’s not a game changer.  People keep ignoring that part of my statements and responding with sarcastic unresponsive retorts.

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

I agree with your second paragraph.  My point is that people (not everyone) are acting like he’s playing like a top 25 hitter.  He’s not.  His redraft value is decent but he’s not a game changer.  People keep ignoring that part of my statements and responding with sarcastic unresponsive retorts.

 

 

 

You are right that he hasn't been a Top 25 hitter.  Other than that explosive 2 HR game, he hadn't homered since the middle of June (not counting the HR in the suspended game).  I didn't really realize that until now.  His counting stats production has been spotty at best as well, but he continues to hit for average and show amazing discipline for a player his age.

 

So, it is true that he hasn't been a game changer in a redraft league up to this point.  Still, what he is doing at his age is impressive stuff, and his value in a keeper/dynasty league should still be considered through the roof.  I know I said this earlier, but I'm still refusing to trade him in my keeper league.

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Ok boys. Just let the kid play and go have a beer. 

 

The endless conjecture about his current value is (imo) pointless. 

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On 7/6/2018 at 9:24 PM, The Waker said:

 

His BABIP and especially HR/FB won’t last.

 

 

The critique is that right now he’s not all that special overall, even if what he’s doing as a 19 year old is.  Like I said earlier, those two things need to be viewed separately. 

 

He’s not winning anyone their league this year.  In redrafts he’s a good pick up but not what the hype suggest. 

 

I agree there’s a difference between what a player does for his age, and what he’s doing in real terms right now but he is absolutely been what the hype suggests because that’s directly tied with him being 19 and what he can do in the future. 

 

Also, he absolutely can be a player who wins someone their league. A free waiver wire add who’s playing like a top 60ish player? Also counting obp leagues? You are always looking for players like that. 

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5 hours ago, The Waker said:

 

I agree with your second paragraph.  My point is that people (not everyone) are acting like he’s playing like a top 25 hitter.  He’s not.  His redraft value is decent but he’s not a game changer.  People keep ignoring that part of my statements and responding with sarcastic unresponsive retorts.

 

 

 

 

No sarcasm or uresponsive statements here.  I just flatly disagree with your belief that “he’s not...that special.”  

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9 hours ago, The Waker said:

 

I agree with your second paragraph.  My point is that people (not everyone) are acting like he’s playing like a top 25 hitter.  He’s not.  His redraft value is decent but he’s not a game changer.  People keep ignoring that part of my statements and responding with sarcastic unresponsive retorts.

 

 

 

 

Don’t worry I’ll use stats for you.

 

If you take Soto’s stats so far in the majors and expand it to 162 games you get this stat line:

 

96 runs 31 hr 93 rbi 4 sb .305 avg .420 Obp 108 walks 120 k

 

the closest line I could find to this from 2017 was Jose Abreu at:

 

95 runs 33 hr 102 rbi 3 sb .304 avg .354 Obp 35 walks 119 ks

 

In a standard 5x5 roto league using average Abreu was the #22 overall player last year and the #18 overall batter.

 

Soto is also batting at the top of the nationals lineup, which is finally hitting like it should, and his counting stats are just going to get better as long as he sticks in the top 5.

 

And finally to say he’s not a top redraft target is just plain stupid if you’re basing it off what’s he’s done so far.  He’s nearly on a .300 100 30 100 pace at age 19.  He’s just going to get better, so if that’s your base line I’ll draft him top 20 all day long to shoot for his ceiling which is most like going to be a perennial 40 hr threat with a top 5 league Obp, batting title contender and a monster in runs/rbis hitting in the heart of the nationals lineup.

 

So please, keep saying he’s not that good.  

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Soto is one of the best young players ever. "Not that special" is one of the most... "special"... things I've seen written in my short time on these boards :lol:

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

 

Don’t worry I’ll use stats for you.

 

If you take Soto’s stats so far in the majors and expand it to 162 games you get this stat line:

 

96 runs 31 hr 93 rbi 4 sb .305 avg .420 Obp 108 walks 120 k

 

the closest line I could find to this from 2017 was Jose Abreu at:

 

95 runs 33 hr 102 rbi 3 sb .304 avg .354 Obp 35 walks 119 ks

 

In a standard 5x5 roto league using average Abreu was the #22 overall player last year and the #18 overall batter.

 

Soto is also batting at the top of the nationals lineup, which is finally hitting like it should, and his counting stats are just going to get better as long as he sticks in the top 5.

 

And finally to say he’s not a top redraft target is just plain stupid if you’re basing it off what’s he’s done so far.  He’s nearly on a .300 100 30 100 pace at age 19.  He’s just going to get better, so if that’s your base line I’ll draft him top 20 all day long to shoot for his ceiling which is most like going to be a perennial 40 hr threat with a top 5 league Obp, batting title contender and a monster in runs/rbis hitting in the heart of the nationals lineup.

 

So please, keep saying he’s not that good.  

 

Thank you for an actual response. 

 

I think it’s silly to ignore his saber numbers here, especially with the shorter sample size.  Prospects always start out better before pitchers adjust.  Last 30 days he’s hitting .283.  His HR/FB is probably double what it should be.  And we’ve seen a lot of homers barely make it out so that makes sense.  And his batted ball numbers don’t support nearly his current rate. Also, extrapolating to about 155 games is probably more relevant nowadays.

 

I’m not saying he’s not good.  I think he will probably win an MVP in next 5 years.  But only being 19 really hurts him now.  My original point was that it’s just silly to act like this guy is putting up stats every night like a top 10 player like some in here do.

 

But if you think he’s a top 20 player in redrafts I wish you were in my league.  Maybe in 2019 he will be top 30 and top 20 in 2020.

 

Edited by The Waker

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Are ages still unreliable from the DR? Like, how the hell is it possible for him to be THIS good, THIS young!?!?

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21 minutes ago, Smantzas said:

Are ages still unreliable from the DR? 

No. Not for 10+ years.

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Posted (edited)

Most of the big time hype is coming from people who play in Dynasty/Keeper. Not re-draft. You are making a point not many people are actually arguing against. Making this whole debate rather pointless.

 

This a 40 page thread, i'm sure you can find dumb statements by sheer chance. Yet the overall "hype" of this thread has zero to do with people in re-draft thinking that. Other than guys simply being very pleased with a WW pick up producing. Blowing initial conservative expectations. Which is completely justified.

Edited by Slatykamora
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2 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Most of the big time hype is coming from people who play in Dynasty/Keeper. Not re-draft. You are making a point not many people are actually arguing against. Making this whole debate rather pointless.

 

This a 40 page thread, i'm sure you can find dumb statements by sheer chance. Yet the overall "hype" of this thread has zero to do with people in re-draft thinking that. Other than guys simply being very pleased with a WW pick up producing. Blowing initial conservative expectations. Which is completely justified.

The bold pertains to about 95% of all discussions here, this site is geared towards redrafts, not so much dynasty leagues, been down that path here more times than I can count, you'd think they'd want everyone involved here 100%,  but you'd be mistaken, it's too bad too, had a lengthy discussion with a few posters and mods about the redraft vs dynastys, asking for a subsection for dynasty talks, but the re-drafters won, they won't give us a platform here for strictly dynasty talks....there are some awesome posters in the milb sections that are an asset to this community,  too bad this site won't expand and welcome dynasty talk, but alas, if we want to talk minor rosters, we have to go to the milb section, where we have to abide by their guidelines, no roster chat, have to go to the bench coach section, where we can't talk about ml players, have to go to that section for those talks....imagine if you will, a place where you can get all your questions answered in one place....a pipe dream around here, and yes, I expect this to be deleted soon as I'm criticizing things here, happens every time I talk dynasty...., you'll get a few  helpful posts for dynasty issues here, but mostly redrafters want to argue about values in re drafts that have zero value to dynastys.  deletion in 3, 2,1.....

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