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Max Muncy 2018 Outlook

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On 5/22/2018 at 12:21 AM, 3Sheets1elbow said:

Agree he’s for deep leagues.  Picked him up last night.  He’s top 10 in barrels/pa and barrels/batted ball event.  Top 50 in average exit velocity and % of balls hit 95+ mph.  All of his x stats show positive correlation.  

 

As as long as Roberts is putting him out there, so will I.  

 

You know this brock but others might not. Want to know who else is in that top 10?

 

Mookie

JD

Teoscar

Thames

Gallo

Belt 

Muncy

Sanchez

Zunino

JR Murphy (don’t touch)

 

 

 

 

What is "barrels"?

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6 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

 

What is "barrels"?

Definition. Created by Tom Tango, the Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015.

 

But similar to how Quality Starts have generally yielded a mean ERA much lower than the baseline of 4.50, the average Barrel has produced a batting mark and a slugging percentage significantly higher than .500 and 1.500, respectively. During the 2016 regular season, balls assigned the Barreled classification had a batting average of .822 and a 2.386 slugging percentage.

 

To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands.

For example: A ball traveling 99 mph always earns 'Barreled' status when struck between 25-31 degrees. Add one more mph -- to reach 100 -- and the range grows another three degrees, to 24-33.

 

Every additional mph over 100 increases the range another two to three degrees until an exit velocity of 116 mph is reached. At that threshold, the Barreled designation is assigned to any ball with a launch angle between eight and 50 degrees.

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Based on the good FG article, looks like he added pop to a decent underlying good discipline skillset.

 

Nothing to lose here in deep leagues. Plug and play and see. 3B eligibility a big plus.

 

 

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On 6/4/2018 at 2:31 AM, Halo Fan said:

Matt Kemp says, "Hi!"

 

not quite the same, as Matt Kemp was a star at one point being revitalized

 

Turner was a utility bench player

Taylor and Muncy were nobodies

 

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11 hours ago, pbjfb said:

 

What is "barrels"?

 

 

everything @Z06vette said.

 

Now here's how I use that data from statcast and Baseball Savant.  Obviously and again as previously stated, if you're hitting the snot out of the ball and not hitting it into the dirt or sky high, you're likely to get hits and more than likely to get xbh.  

 

Once I see what unknowns are at the top of the leaderboard I start digging deeper.  This is where I first noticed Pham in May of last year btw.

First I want to see if their xstats say they're doing as well or should be doing much better.  Let's take John Ryan Murphy for instance.  When I first posted the top 10, this was before he went on his tear and received more playing time.  At that time his xstats didn't jump out as say Matt Carpenter's did last month.  Now he's batting .264/.365/.598 while his xstats say you should have expected a .249/.372./.624 line from how well he's hitting the ball.  It's not a huge gap from his actual numbers but anyone will take that from a catcher right now.

 

Also in the top 10 is someone I'm kicking myself for not holding on to is Daniel Palka.  Xstats say he should have much better numbers than his actual numbers just like Muncy, but here's the second thing I look at which separates Palka and  Murphy from Muncy.  While they all strike out 24%-27% of the time, Muncy is the only one of them with a BB% in double digits, the other two don't crack 5%.  He also has the lowest BABIP at .254.  So I know with Muncy there's potential for much more or at least consistency whereas with Murphy and Palka I'll run into some pop but can also get a lot more 0-4 with some Ks.  

 

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, 3Sheets1elbow said:

 

 

everything @Z06vette said.

 

Now here's how I use that data from statcast and Baseball Savant.  Obviously and again as previously stated, if you're hitting the snot out of the ball and not hitting it into the dirt or sky high, you're likely to get hits and more than likely to get xbh.  

 

Once I see what unknowns are at the top of the leaderboard I start digging deeper.  This is where I first noticed Pham in May of last year btw.

First I want to see if their xstats say they're doing as well or should be doing much better.  Let's take John Ryan Murphy for instance.  When I first posted the top 10, this was before he went on his tear and received more playing time.  At that time his xstats didn't jump out as say Matt Carpenter's did last month.  Now he's batting .264/.365/.598 while his xstats say you should have expected a .249/.372./.624 line from how well he's hitting the ball.  It's not a huge gap from his actual numbers but anyone will take that from a catcher right now.

 

Also in the top 10 is someone I'm kicking myself for not holding on to is Daniel Palka.  Xstats say he should have much better numbers than his actual numbers just like Muncy, but here's the second thing I look at which separates Palka and  Murphy from Muncy.  While they all strike out 24%-27% of the time, Muncy is the only one of them with a BB% in double digits, the other two don't crack 5%.  He also has the lowest BABIP at .254.  So I know with Muncy there's potential for much more or at least consistency whereas with Murphy and Palka I'll run into some pop but can also get a lot more 0-4 with some Ks.  

 

 

 

 

 

Great insights, thanks, now how do you figure out what the xstats should be? And the one thing about muncy is that in AAA this year he was striking out at 13%k:16%bb and last year 22%:14%, so is there a chance he can improve on his 25%k this year considering his swstr is only 8.2%?

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12 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

 

Great insights, thanks, now how do you figure out what the xstats should be? 

 

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics

 

Absolutely he can improve.  I forgot where I heard this but he's somewhere among the leaders in K looking.  That's backed up by his ZSwing% in the bottom 15th percentile among qualified batters (min. 100 PA).  We know he's patient backed up by his BB% and OSwing%, but with his ZContact% being almost in the top 85%, if he'd just swing at his pitches he could produce more than even xstats says he should.

Edited by 3Sheets1elbow
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5 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

 

not quite the same, as Matt Kemp was a star at one point being revitalized

 

Turner was a utility bench player

Taylor and Muncy were nobodies

 

Oh, I get that, but Kemp was supposed to be "done." They were only taking him on to get rid of other expensive pieces. Then they wanted to dump him on someone else. I'd call him a scrap heap reclamation project. Nobody wanted him, and he's been the best hitter on the Dodgers and one of the best in the NL.

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6 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Still goin

Yep.  I've had him for a little over a week now.  It's been nice to have a guy that I picked up lately actually produce.

 

More hitters need to get a case of the Muncies...

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Definitely think we have something here.  Saw his steal though . . . he runs as if he were in a tar pit :lol:

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7 minutes ago, STLSU said:

Definitely think we have something here.  Saw his steal though . . . he runs as if he were in a tar pit :lol:

So he won't be getting very many more SBs for us then... :)

 

I was actually surprised when I got home from work on Thursday and saw that he got a SB.  I guess Diaz was just too shocked to actually throw him out (I still have yet to see the actual play). :D

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13 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

So he won't be getting very many more SBs for us then... :)

 

I was actually surprised when I got home from work on Thursday and saw that he got a SB.  I guess Diaz was just too shocked to actually throw him out (I still have yet to see the actual play). :D

No one was covering 2nd due to a shift :lol:

 

It was like watching the Chariots of Fire song/video with the runners going in slow motion.   Now I'm thinking it would be funny to make a youtube video of the steal with the song dubbed over it

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6 minutes ago, STLSU said:

No one was covering 2nd due to a shift :lol:

 

It was like watching the Chariots of Fire song/video with the runners going in slow motion.   Now I'm thinking it would be funny to make a youtube video of the steal with the song dubbed over it

Well, that explains it.  Oh well. We'll all still take a free SB. :)

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11 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Well, that explains it.  Oh well. We'll all still take a free SB. :)

Haha yah ... He is 138 on the Sprint Speed leaderboard so he has a bit of "Rudy" or "Gump" in him with great instincts.  Should see maybe 5 a year from the guy.  In all seriousness, he got hot at the right time for a lot of people.  Hard to get someone like him out of nowhere midseason on the WW.

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Add Anibal Sanchez to the list of pitchers that have now suffered a case of the Muncies...

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On 5/21/2018 at 10:09 PM, CrypTviLL said:

Who???

Max Muncy: from who? To wow! in 18 days flat. 

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When Turner gets back on the field, any chance Muncy gets some run at 2B?  Could see it against RHP so they could start Joc, Kemp, and Puig in the OF & Bellinger at 1B.

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2 hours ago, castaway98 said:

When Turner gets back on the field, any chance Muncy gets some run at 2B?  Could see it against RHP so they could start Joc, Kemp, and Puig in the OF & Bellinger at 1B.

I believe the team has been discussing that for a few weeks now.

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I picked him up last night and plugged him into my lineup today.  I'm curious to know what people think about him.    Will he keep this up?  

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Wait until he hits 20 HRs to make sure he's legit before you pick him up

-Rotoworld

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