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Max Muncy 2018 Outlook

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HR's in back to back games.  Maybe Muncy is getting hot again.  If so, that likely means Dave Roberts will sit him soon again.

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I had to drop him last week with the days off he was getting and needing roster spots for other reasons. He's looking too good not to roster and start though. The power has been consistent, the OBP/walks are great in a lot of our leagues, and the multi position is sweet. I've had a hard time believing in him, but everyone's break out starts somewhere. 

 

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9 minutes ago, David Aames said:

where will he hit in the order once their 2b returns?

Their 2B is back already (Forsythe)...though Hernandez will play there on occasion too.

The other prob for the upcoming week is 3 LH pitchers on the docket...

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1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Their 2B is back already (Forsythe)...though Hernandez will play there on occasion too.

The other prob for the upcoming week is 3 LH pitchers on the docket...

Not really a problem because they play him against LHPs like today (Blevins) because he hits them well.

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1 hour ago, STLSU said:

Not really a problem because they play him against LHPs like today (Blevins) because he hits them well.

Correct.  He sat against a couple of lefties a couple of weeks ago, to the frustration of me and a couple of others in here, but they were Bumgarner and Hamels.  He hasn't sat against one since, so maybe it was because of who they were.  He did start against Lester though, so maybe they were just random brain farts that Dave Roberts has on occasion.  Either way, it shouldn't be a concern that there are several lefties on the schedule for this week.

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I'd bet he sits against at least 2 of the 3 this week. Blevins was simply a 1 inning 'opener' yesterday.

He's been more than fine against lefties and when he's hot he should not be sitting, but Rave Doberts will be playing Forsythe...

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Just made a big move for him

 

If you consider expected hit rates, based on how hard hit, exit velocity, launch angles, etc. and factor with plate discipline (BB:K) Max Muncy is the 4th best hitter in MLB. He is 4th in both xSLG and xwOBA! Overall he has been one of the more unluckier batters this year. And  he is still slugging.

 

The only 3 hitters better?

 

Trout, Bettis, and JD Martinez

 

 

 

What company to be in....the SSS issue but I'm moving forward with mid-round value for this guy ROS

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8 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I'd bet he sits against at least 2 of the 3 this week. Blevins was simply a 1 inning 'opener' yesterday.

He's been more than fine against lefties and when he's hot he should not be sitting, but Rave Doberts will be playing Forsythe...

He played against Jon Lester recently.  His splits this season have actually reversed recently and he's actually better against LHP than RHP.  They were close before, and he might have actually been slightly better against LHP when I looked at his splits when he sat when he was hot the last time, but they've split further recently.  Plus, it's not like he's just going to play 2B from now on anyways.  He'll still start at 1B too.

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9 hours ago, pbjfb said:

Today should be his 4th start at 2B, 

 

But Yahoo still has him at 2 (shouldn't it be 3?)

https://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/9563/positioneligibility

Yes, I (and onroto) have him at 4 games at 2B.

Now that said, mine is games played. You specifically said started. I have no idea if he possibly played a game at 2B that he didn’t start the game at? Or if yahoo even uses games started? Something to consider.

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On 6/26/2018 at 9:39 AM, RJWMN24 said:

 

They go by games remaining.  Today he is at 1, as in one more start at 2B and he gains eligibility.

 

On 6/26/2018 at 9:05 AM, Backdoor Slider said:

Yes, I (and onroto) have him at 4 games at 2B.

Now that said, mine is games played. You specifically said started. I have no idea if he possibly played a game at 2B that he didn’t start the game at? Or if yahoo even uses games started? Something to consider.

Oh, I see, one game remaining as a start

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1 hour ago, n00chness said:

Any truth to the rumor that Muncy is going to be featured on the Cool Ranch Doritos bag?

No it's actually the Flamin Hot Munchies bag. 

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1 minute ago, mrfrood said:

No it's actually the Flamin Hot Munchies bag. 

 

Username checks out (minus the “r”)

Edited by BMcP

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Muncy is for real. He's line looks a little like Aaron Judge lite. After not playing in 2017, something really clicked with this guy. He's walking an absurd 18.8%, good for an OBP over .400, and his hard contact rate is 46.2% (Judge is at 48.3% for context), and his ground ball rate is a cool 35%. Yes, he'll cool off eventually as his HR/FB rate is north of of 30% (unsustainable), but those who are writting this off as a fluke are mistaken. We've seen the Dodgers turn hitters in their mid-20's into stars, and Muncy is next. Keep riding the hot streak, and if someone if looking to sell high, I'd pounce.

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Gonna play Debbie Downer for a minute, but if this is as down as you can get on Muncy then you have some unreasonable standards.

 

 

If you feel like he’s hitting a lot of solo shots, you’re not wrong.  14/17 of his HR have come with no runners on.  Sure, this can be attributed to 11 of them coming from the 2 spot.  

 

I did a quick look at some other 2 hole hitters on top ranked hitting teams. Now the league average for solo HR is around 60%.  Muncy is at 82% from the 2,5,7&8 spot.  Albies comes pretty close in the high 70s but he only hits from 1&2.  

 

The Dodgers are 8th in OBP and 8th in runs scored.  

 

I guess my beef isnt isn’t with Max but with the Dodgers.  Stop robbing this hero of his RBI please!

Edited by 3Sheets1elbow
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Got to give the Didgers GM Zahdi and their scouts all the credit in the world here.  On that note here, I think it is now safe to say that Dodgers and Yankees are easily among the top 5 Team talent evaluators/scouting/developmers in MLB.  They aren't sitting back and just spending stacks of cash.

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23 minutes ago, STLSU said:

Got to give the Didgers GM Zahdi and their scouts all the credit in the world here.  On that note here, I think it is now safe to say that Dodgers and Yankees are easily among the top 5 Team talent evaluators/scouting/developmers in MLB.  They aren't sitting back and just spending stacks of cash.

 

A lot of the credit needs to go to the coaching staff as well. They completely turned him into a new hitter, and we've seen them do it with other guys like Chris Taylor and Justin Turner. He's a completely different hitter from his Oakland days.

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48 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Mad Max now at 17 home runs.  Wow, don't think any of us saw tat coming.  I didn't even know he existed a couple of months back.

 

In 166 AB's.... Some guys are already over 300 this year...

 

It's insane what he is doing.

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I mean literally he has been a Top 4 batter LUCK ASIDE this year. Top 4. Only Bettis, Trout, and JD have batted as well or better.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=&min=150

 

This isn't based on a hot streak of BA or SLG. This is based on expected stats based purely on how he has hit the ball and his plate discipline. I mean his walk rate is nearly 20% (!) and thats backed by underlying metrics on his oSwing% and swgStr (less than 8). Rates like walk/K stabilize after 80 or so PA and he is well past that.

 

This isn't a hot streak where someone has been getting hot or lucky, we EXPECT him to be an elite batter. In fact, so far he has underperformed the numbers say.

 

Edited by terminator10
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