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How much would you offer for Vlad Jr in a dynasty? WHIR

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1 minute ago, CanadianSportsJunkie said:

No worries!

 

Vlad Jr > almost every other player right now for me in Dynasty/Keeper...Maybe 10 ahead of him? I think I would struggle with that tho 


That sound about right. The young more proven guys like Trout, Betts, Arenado, etc. probably hold more value. But even that could be argued because he's 7 years younger, which means 7 more years of being an elite player than them moving forward if he can be the player we think he will be. But where he hasn't played a game in the big leagues yet he probably should be valued just below those high-end young players. Vlad Jr. isn't just another high-end prospect. This is a Trout/Harper level prospect. So he should be treated as such.

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On 5/25/2018 at 1:49 PM, Thenewwildone8 said:

With all due respect this is a how to on how to fail at fantasy baseball. Vlad is an unproven prospect. You don’t trade a top 3 SP AND a top 5 1B for him, that’s insanity. Top prospects bust all the time. 5-8 years of an elite SP is a safer bet than 18-20 years of a gamble. Suppose he busts and you just traded Kershaw and Goldy for him? 

 

Just reading the page one comments you seem to be out of touch with dynasty baseball values. Yeah, what if Vlad busts. What if Kershaw's injury risk doesn't go away or gets worse? What if Goldschmidts slump (dating back to last year) isn't a slump but an indicator of the player he will be (even if he improves some, which he should). 

 

Kersh and Goldy may be the top guys, like you said. However, both of their values have taken a major hit this year. It's not like we are talking Freddie Freeman and Chris sale. Kershaw and Goldy have some risk. 

 

If he's not legitimately competing for this year, or has strong back up options (like Jose abreu or even belt) then I don't see the problem at all. If Vlad is the generational talent people think he may legitimately be that's a great price. I mean, would you trade those guys for arenado, Machado, correa, trout, etc? Yeah. 

 

I think team dynamic is what determines if this is a foolish deal to make. The Vlad owner in my dynasty has shot down some serious high end offers for him. I also think it's foolish, but Kershaw and Goldy have enough risk that it's not crazy to not take. 

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4 hours ago, CanadianSportsJunkie said:

 

Don't compare being a real GM and playing fantasy baseball...jeez your one of those. There is a lot more to it when your talking real life...egos, how to take care of veterans, media, revenue etc...

 

 

“One of those”? All I’m saying is that trading a top 3 SP for a prospect is insane. 3 top prospects or young players already in the Majors sure, but 1 prospect?! Kershaw is one of the greatest SP’s of this generation and isn’t done yet, you don’t trade him for a lottery ticket. 

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4 hours ago, Idoolittle said:

 


In real life if Washington offered Toronto Max Scherzer for Vlad Guerrero Jr, I bet Toronto would decline. Scherzer's 33. Vlad Jr's 19. Unproven or not you're not going to trade a prospect that has Trout/Harper potential for someone that old. But as someone else mentioned, there's a difference between being a real life and fantasy value anyway so it's kind of a moot point.

Prospects are prospects, you absolutely trade them for elite players. Washington would never offer Scherzer for Vlad because Scherzer is more valuable, especially to a contending team. Toronto would accept in a heartbeat if Washington paid most or half of Scherzer’s salary and they were in contention. You’re way overvaluing him. 

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2 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

 

Just reading the page one comments you seem to be out of touch with dynasty baseball values. Yeah, what if Vlad busts. What if Kershaw's injury risk doesn't go away or gets worse? What if Goldschmidts slump (dating back to last year) isn't a slump but an indicator of the player he will be (even if he improves some, which he should). 

 

Kersh and Goldy may be the top guys, like you said. However, both of their values have taken a major hit this year. It's not like we are talking Freddie Freeman and Chris sale. Kershaw and Goldy have some risk. 

 

If he's not legitimately competing for this year, or has strong back up options (like Jose abreu or even belt) then I don't see the problem at all. If Vlad is the generational talent people think he may legitimately be that's a great price. I mean, would you trade those guys for arenado, Machado, correa, trout, etc? Yeah. 

 

I think team dynamic is what determines if this is a foolish deal to make. The Vlad owner in my dynasty has shot down some serious high end offers for him. I also think it's foolish, but Kershaw and Goldy have enough risk that it's not crazy to not take. 

There’s a major issue with dynasty leagues if lottery tickets are worth more than top 3 Starting Pitchers. Kershaw has had injury issues yes but he’s still putting up elite numbers. As far as I’m aware none of his injuries are serious. I’m glad that we agree on it being foolish to do, but despite Goldy’s issues I think it will be selling low on him.

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Out of curiosity from this thread I reached out to the owner in the 14 team H2H, forever keeper Dynasty league I'm in and asked if Vlad Jr is untouchable via trade? I didn't mention the thread. 

 

His reply was:

He's not untouchable, but it wouldn't make much sense for any team trading for him. I probably over value him as a top 3 bat and he hasn't even played in the bigs yet, but everything I've seen and scouts have seen point to a can't miss guy in the form of miggy Cabrera before miggy got old. I mean he's hitting .435 in the minors with a 9% strikeout rate lol. It's just insane.

 

I agree with the consensus that Vlad Jr could be an absolute, game changing stud but I personally couldnt unload 2 or more of my best players (e.g. Severino, Altuve, Spinger, etc.) for him because one player will not replace all of there counting stats. 

 

Also, from my conversation with him he would want to remain young so it really doesnt make sense for owners who own Vlad Jr. to sell him for players approaching 30 years old or are over 30.

Edited by 24/7fantasysports
added league size

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7 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

You’re missing my point. No matter how much research one does, a prospect is a coin toss. If you look at top 10 prospects since say 1992, you’ll see that only a third lived up to the hype. Otherwise you have “generational” pitching prospects like Darren Dreifort and Bryan Bullington, “the next Ken Griffey Jr.” Jason Heyward, “the next Miguel Cabrera” Jesus Montero.... I’m sure someone could’ve made a topic: “I offered Roy Halladay for Delmon Young, but the other owner rejected, should I throw in Robinson Cano?”. Sure Vlad could turn out to be a generational star, but he also might not. It’s like would you pay $5,000 for a lottery ticket where it’s 50-50 if you win a million?

 

In real life you have annual drafts, do you have something similar in your league? That’s how I would build up my farm and through trades but if I’m trading Kershaw I expect something like Vlad, Eloy and Flsherty. A package to maximize my chances of not getting a bust. Otherwise I’d trade him for young more proven players like Albies, Acuna, Moncada... I’m sure someone in contention would pay for Kershaw.

 

You've picked some pretty bad comps there. Dreifort and Bullington were good prospects but nowhere near the #1 in baseball.  The best pitching prospects in my lifetime were Strasburg and Prior.  One of them has been elite, and the other had a few great seasons before failing due to injury. 

 

On the hitting side, Heyward was a borderline top-10 prospect, and Montero was top-5 for a few years but never #1.  Neither were ever close to where Vlad is. Delmon Young is the only reasonable comp above, as a #1 overall draft pick and a true #1 overall prospect for a few years.

 

Vlad is probably the best fantasy prospect since Bryce Harper. And before him, I think you'd have to go back to Andruw Jones to find a prospect just as good.

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On 5/27/2018 at 7:52 PM, Thenewwildone8 said:

There’s a major issue with dynasty leagues if lottery tickets are worth more than top 3 Starting Pitchers. Kershaw has had injury issues yes but he’s still putting up elite numbers. As far as I’m aware none of his injuries are serious. I’m glad that we agree on it being foolish to do, but despite Goldy’s issues I think it will be selling low on him.

 

Not really a major issue at all. These MLB trades happen at the deadline all the time. You say Washington wouldn't give up Scherzer for Vlad Jr. How is that relevant? Washington is competing. If Scherzer was a Red he'd absolutely move for Vlad Jr. Sale moved for Moncada (and others, but Moncada was by far the main piece there). Houston refused to move Tucker or Whitley to get Sale, Archer, Quintana, or Cole. Those guys aren't on Vlad Jr's level. If I had Vlad Jr. I would not move him for Goldschmidt, I wouldn't even consider it. I think about the worst good bat I would rationalize doing it for is George Springer, and that's if I really needed OF help and what Springer offers. I wouldn't move Vlad Jr. for Rizzo, Rendon, Goldy, JD Martinez, etc. The cost of a generational talent like Trout, Harper, Bryant, Correa, etc is so high it's worth gambling on (especially when the tools he's shown are so elite). Vlad Jr. is a much better prospect than any of those guys were. If I wasn't competing right now I wouldn't move Vlad Jr. unless it made me compete next year and for a few years. It would take multiple top 50 talents under 30-32 years old, or a few younger top talents still unproven. 


It would be crazy to see another top prospect (whitley, jimenez, etc) get traded for a guy like Strasburg or Justin Upton. Considering how much more valuable vlad is than them, it's not crazy that what he'd fetch is that much more valuable. I am the guy who always flips prospects. Always. Over time you will come out ahead if you can always sell high on their upside. People eat it up. However, you will lose some deals in a huge way. I gave away Bellinger before the 2017 season just to get a deal done (I still did OK on the trade, but moving Bellinger for what I did is sickening). Same thing with Trea. I lost big time on those guys. I didn't lose big time on selling high on others though. 

 

On 5/27/2018 at 10:14 PM, Ben Edelman said:

 

You've picked some pretty bad comps there. Dreifort and Bullington were good prospects but nowhere near the #1 in baseball.  The best pitching prospects in my lifetime were Strasburg and Prior.  One of them has been elite, and the other had a few great seasons before failing due to injury. 

 

On the hitting side, Heyward was a borderline top-10 prospect, and Montero was top-5 for a few years but never #1.  Neither were ever close to where Vlad is. Delmon Young is the only reasonable comp above, as a #1 overall draft pick and a true #1 overall prospect for a few years.

 

Vlad is probably the best fantasy prospect since Bryce Harper. And before him, I think you'd have to go back to Andruw Jones to find a prospect just as good.

I noticed this too. Really some bad comps. You also can't go just one #1's either, because year to year you can have 3-5 absolute studs in the 3-5, and another year someone else is the #1 just because someone has to be. The kid not only has hype but excellent on field performance. I mean, absolutely excellent. 

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In my 10 keeper league (20 teams) someone offered me Stanton for Vladito...i declined

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On 5/29/2018 at 10:36 AM, sngehl01 said:

 

Not really a major issue at all. These MLB trades happen at the deadline all the time. You say Washington wouldn't give up Scherzer for Vlad Jr. How is that relevant? Washington is competing. If Scherzer was a Red he'd absolutely move for Vlad Jr. Sale moved for Moncada (and others, but Moncada was by far the main piece there). Houston refused to move Tucker or Whitley to get Sale, Archer, Quintana, or Cole. Those guys aren't on Vlad Jr's level. If I had Vlad Jr. I would not move him for Goldschmidt, I wouldn't even consider it. I think about the worst good bat I would rationalize doing it for is George Springer, and that's if I really needed OF help and what Springer offers. I wouldn't move Vlad Jr. for Rizzo, Rendon, Goldy, JD Martinez, etc. The cost of a generational talent like Trout, Harper, Bryant, Correa, etc is so high it's worth gambling on (especially when the tools he's shown are so elite). Vlad Jr. is a much better prospect than any of those guys were. If I wasn't competing right now I wouldn't move Vlad Jr. unless it made me compete next year and for a few years. It would take multiple top 50 talents under 30-32 years old, or a few younger top talents still unproven. 


It would be crazy to see another top prospect (whitley, jimenez, etc) get traded for a guy like Strasburg or Justin Upton. Considering how much more valuable vlad is than them, it's not crazy that what he'd fetch is that much more valuable. I am the guy who always flips prospects. Always. Over time you will come out ahead if you can always sell high on their upside. People eat it up. However, you will lose some deals in a huge way. I gave away Bellinger before the 2017 season just to get a deal done (I still did OK on the trade, but moving Bellinger for what I did is sickening). Same thing with Trea. I lost big time on those guys. I didn't lose big time on selling high on others though. 

 

I noticed this too. Really some bad comps. You also can't go just one #1's either, because year to year you can have 3-5 absolute studs in the 3-5, and another year someone else is the #1 just because someone has to be. The kid not only has hype but excellent on field performance. I mean, absolutely excellent. 

Vlad Jr. AND others NEVER 1 for 1. Aroldis Chapman was moved for Gleyber Torres AND Billy McKinney AND Rashad Crawford AND Adam Warren. You have to be insane to trade an elite player for just 1 prospect. Houston didn’t move Tucker for Cole because no one else was offering more for Cole. Boston moved Moncada and Kopech for Sale, 2 top prospects. 

 

There‘s nothing sillier than talking about how a particular prospect is worth more than proven fantasy assets. Remember Jason Heyward was hyped up to be the next Griffey? How about the “generational prospect” Darren Dreifort? What about Bill Pulsipher? Brandon Wood? The list goes on and on. When teams in real life trade elite playersfor prospects, they get a PACKAGE for a reason, to maximize the chances of all those lottery picks working out. Sure he’s better than other prospects, that really says a lot ?, all it means is that he’s a more likely lottery ticket to work out but still a lottery ticket.

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On 5/29/2018 at 11:34 AM, Mamei said:

In my 10 keeper league (20 teams) someone offered me Stanton for Vladito...i declined

What happens if Vlad doesn’t live up to the hype? You rejected trading a lottery ticket for the best power hitter in the game in his prime. I can see if you don’t believe that he’ll turn things around, though that’s öffnet otherwise this is how one avoids winning leagues, by way overvalueing his prospects.

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6 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

What happens if Vlad doesn’t live up to the hype? You rejected trading a lottery ticket for the best power hitter in the game in his prime. I can see if you don’t believe that he’ll turn things around, though that’s öffnet otherwise this is how one avoids winning leagues, by way overvalueing his prospects.

It`s a $5 league...just playing for fun and i already have a great team. We only have 3OF spots  (Betts, Belllinger and Acuna/Soto) + i grabbed Vlad a year ago. i really like to see how he develops on MY team ;)

I think it really depends on the league you`re in...if he fails...as i said...it`s a fun league for me

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On 5/26/2018 at 5:53 PM, Thenewwildone8 said:

Big difference between his trade and yours. 

 

Scherzer > Severino Torres > Baez. You won the first trade easily.

 

Acuna > Albies. Also a win.

 

Hoskins is Chris Davis 2.0 so that’s an automatic win.

 

Would you trade Scherzer for Vlad? 

Noi i wouldn't. Max is #1 imo, and i couldn't win without him.

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On 5/27/2018 at 11:56 AM, Thenewwildone8 said:

And that’s why they’d never be gm’s in real life. Add 2 other top prospects and sure but 1 for 1 is insane.

Real GMS have to factor in team payroll, 6 years of player cost control. fan back lash, among things. Fantasy players don't deal with them.

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On 5/27/2018 at 11:39 AM, Thenewwildone8 said:

You’re missing my point. No matter how much research one does, a prospect is a coin toss. If you look at top 10 prospects since say 1992, you’ll see that only a third lived up to the hype. Otherwise you have “generational” pitching prospects like Darren Dreifort and Bryan Bullington, “the next Ken Griffey Jr.” Jason Heyward, “the next Miguel Cabrera” Jesus Montero....

A elite prospect, has a more favorable odds? No?

Pitching prospects don't count imo. They are all huge risks.

Even if the names above were great, or all bums. It has no effect on Vlads career. Only Vlad controls that.

 

Not a Heyward fan. But he deserves credit. A 184 mil reasons

Over 100 career hrs and sb. Over 350 career xbh.

5 seasons of at least a 3 WAR. That's 5 years of being above average.

 

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6 hours ago, HOOTIE said:

Noi i wouldn't. Max is #1 imo, and i couldn't win without him.

Exactly neither would I.

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6 hours ago, HOOTIE said:

A elite prospect, has a more favorable odds? No?

Pitching prospects don't count imo. They are all huge risks.

Even if the names above were great, or all bums. It has no effect on Vlads career. Only Vlad controls that.

 

Not a Heyward fan. But he deserves credit. A 184 mil reasons

Over 100 career hrs and sb. Over 350 career xbh.

5 seasons of at least a 3 WAR. That's 5 years of being above average.

 

The key word is a “prospect”. You want me to give you a list of elite prospects who didn’t work out? It’s longer than the list of those that did. Heyward’s WAR values were high mostly due to his defense which is irrelevant in fantasy.

 

In Heyward’s best offensive season he batted .269/.335/.479. He only topped 20 home runs once (27 with the above batting line). Ken Griffey Jr.’s (who he was compared to as a minor leaguer) best offensive season? .323/.402/.674. I think it’s fair to say that Heyward didn’t live up to the hype at all. He was paid for his potential and I doubt he would get anywhere close to that in hindsight.

 

Edited by Thenewwildone8

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19 hours ago, Mamei said:

It`s a $5 league...just playing for fun and i already have a great team. We only have 3OF spots  (Betts, Belllinger and Acuna/Soto) + i grabbed Vlad a year ago. i really like to see how he develops on MY team ;)

I think it really depends on the league you`re in...if he fails...as i said...it`s a fun league for me

To each his own, congratulations on an impressive OF mix.

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21 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

The key word is a “prospect”. You want me to give you a list of elite prospects who didn’t work out?

 

Me and you are going to have disagree on  this one.

Name some elites, that had a 80 grade in hitting?  with power?

That walked more then they struck out in the minors?

That dominated guys 2 to 3 years older then him?

 

I get it prospects bust. But they also become All-Stars

IMO, Vlad is best talent since Harper.

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