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Dylan Covey 2018 Outlook

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anything to see with this guy? or a bum?

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I remember stacking against this whoopee cushion a couple times last year. He was horrendous. 34 BBs and 20 Hrs in 70 IP. Unless he drastically changed nothing to see here. 

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Don't hold your breath. Sox fan here, he has looked better in Charlotte, some say he's picking up velo, but I agree with the above...AAAA player, he'll have some good moments, but just can't be counted on consistently. The stuff just isn't good enough. He will probably throw some games in his career, may even pitch a few good ones, but because his stuff is so average he just doesn't have a lot of margin for error. His fastball is capable as long as he keeps it down, but his other off speed offerings are merely OK...and merely OK in the majors will get your roasted most of the time. 

 

My advice is, feel free to try him out as a spot starting option against bad opponents, but do NOT start him against top teams. The good thing about the American League is that it's the perfect definition of haves and have nots....3 elite teams...NYY, Boston, Houston....2 really good teams, LAA and Cleveland...1 team that is sorta OK in Minny...then a load of junk....some of that junk is not bad (Jays) and the rest is....well just junk (KC, Det, Bal, CHW). So picking your spots is easy. 

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3.86 siera prior to this start. BB/9 had been rough at 4.0. 

 

Great game today. More of a spec add but worth watching for another start or two 

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I’ve added him.. but I didn’t want to start him this week vs Cleveland. So far the reviews ive read are positive on this guy and he seems to be sticking in the rotation. Dominating the Red Sox is nothing to sneeze at

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I know I called him a certified gas can in my previous post- but I do belief he's changed a bit since last year. I caught a glimpse of his start against the O's and his velocity was way up from what I recalled last year. He was hitting 94-95 whereas last year he was a guy who nibbled and was topping at around 92. I still don't think he's someone to get super excited about but I think he's a guy who could be considered at least against poor lineups and not the guaranteed gas can like he was last year. Definitely wouldnt want to start him against Indians but I'll be interested to see how he does at least

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2 hours ago, sleepysock said:

I think tonight's the night he turns back into a pumpkin. 

I think you are wrong 

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15 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

I think you are wrong 

 

No, no, I'm right. Everyone loves pumpkins. Pies, lattes, breads. What I was trying to say is Dylan Covey is a delicious and versatile fantasy option. 

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Impressive that he has gone head to head woth sale and now bauer.....and won.....there has got to be some deep analysis pit there pitching gurus come calling....

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Gave up 10 hits - 9 were singles(?) - is that good, bad, or ready to be blown up?

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, jahweedum said:

Gave up 10 hits - 9 were singles(?) - is that good, bad, or ready to be blown up?

 

I watched part of the game. From what I can see he is mostly a fastball pitcher and works in the zone almost all of the time. His fastball isn't hard to hit (no whiffs!) but it does sink -- as do his secondary pitches -- so he gets a lot of ground balls (most in the AL I think). The Sox have a rangy and talented defensive infield (other than Abreu) so that probably helps him a ton. 

 

Biggest takeaway is that he was sitting 93-96 all night. Last year he was throwing 91-93 with less movement. He only threw a few curves that I saw, but they looked good. Seems he can throw it for a strike when he needs to, though I don't see it as a put-away pitch (in fact nothing he throws is quite good enough to earn that designation, really). So anyway, I guess I might believe he's legit in the sense that last year he was probably the worst pitcher in all of baseball, while this year his results are not only better, but he actually looks like he's doing something different. Even if that heater is getting pummelled, it's getting pummelled into the ground, and as long as it's getting hit near Sanchez, Anderson, or Moncada, there's a good chance it gets scooped up. 

 

I'm not rostering the guy, but I'm finally willing to bend on my assertion that he's a total dud, and would probably stream him against certain squads. Wouldn't surprise me if he was a 4.50 ERA guy with ~10 QS the rest of the way. Used judiciously he could help you out, I guess. I do wonder, though, if he's the one that gets the boot from the rotation whenever Kopech gets the call-up. 

Edited by sleepysock
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1 hour ago, sleepysock said:

 

I watched part of the game. From what I can see he is mostly a fastball pitcher and works in the zone almost all of the time. His fastball isn't hard to hit (no whiffs!) but it does sink -- as do his secondary pitches -- so he gets a lot of ground balls (most in the AL I think). The Sox have a rangy and talented defensive infield (other than Abreu) so that probably helps him a ton. 

 

Biggest takeaway is that he was sitting 93-96 all night. Last year he was throwing 91-93 with less movement. He only threw a few curves that I saw, but they looked good. Seems he can throw it for a strike when he needs to, though I don't see it as a put-away pitch (in fact nothing he throws is quite good enough to earn that designation, really). So anyway, I guess I might believe he's legit in the sense that last year he was probably the worst pitcher in all of baseball, while this year his results are not only better, but he actually looks like he's doing something different. Even if that heater is getting pummelled, it's getting pummelled into the ground, and as long as it's getting hit near Sanchez, Anderson, or Moncada, there's a good chance it gets scooped up. 

 

I'm not rostering the guy, but I'm finally willing to bend on my assertion that he's a total dud, and would probably stream him against certain squads. Wouldn't surprise me if he was a 4.50 ERA guy with ~10 QS the rest of the way. Used judiciously he could help you out, I guess. I do wonder, though, if he's the one that gets the boot from the rotation whenever Kopech gets the call-up. 

 

Nice assessment.

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seems like razzball rotoprofessor and rotoballer are starting to endorse him... but pitcherlist refuses to get on board the hype train here. think he's done more than enough to warrant the add in 12 teamers given the level of competition he's faced.

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Posted (edited)

To echo a few of @sleepysock's points and add a few. 

 

---Fastball Velocity (AV) 

Dylan Covey's average Velo (Brooks) was roughly 92.00 last year (70 IP) and is roughly 94.5 (35.1 IP) this year. 

 

I like velocity gainers for two reasons: it's a great way to explain improvements and it is REALLY easy to see when it disappears. Take Lyles as a prime example. I got excited by Lyles, then uninterested in Lyles because his velocity from the Bullpen didn't carry over for long as the endurance of innings took a toll on his arm. But if you keep your eye on the velocity you don't get saddled with those 12 ERs in his last 10.1 IP. Yeah, you have to pay attention. But it's one number, and if his fastball stays up that's incredibly encouraging. 

 

---Type of FA

His Fourseamer got creamed last year. According to Brooks he's moved almost exclusively 2-Seam. Sometimes these are classifications or small trends. He seems to have consciously changed his primary fastball from 4-Seam to Sinker. 

 

---Arsenal good on damage, not missing bats. 

Problem is that this is more likely to be a bit luck induced, if just because of sample size (Missing bats the denominator would be per pitch not per AB of course). But I like seeing pitchers avoid damage with their whole repertoire as opposed to having a wide split between pitches. Covey has the former right now, with no pitch giving up a better than .400 SLG. But his overall whiff% is sub-8.00%. If that continues there's just no way in hell he's touching his 8.41 K/9. This might be closer to a 6.50 K/9 guy. Maybe he can be a low-to-mid 7's. 

 

---How good's the Change? 

He does have great results on one pitch in particular this year that is very different from last year-- the Change. It is a pitch that makes sense to be a bit better because he's throwing harder. Has allowed only a .143 SLG and has the highest Whiff% of any individual pitch, a very respectable 16.67% Whiff%. He throws the Sinker/Fastball most, Slider second most, and his Curve and Change under 10%. If his Change-Up continues to produce these results, he should DEFINITELY try to throw it more. His Slider is nothing special and he is a mostly fastball thrower. The Change-Up is the pitch that has potential. 

 

Overall, between White Sox and lack of whiffs, he's probably not worth owning long term in most Shallow League Formats, but I do think there's something intriguing going on here, and I do think I'd be willing to gain confidence in him in good match-ups. 

Edited by taobball
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Covey has also cited a specific lack of confidence last year and an unwillingness to do more than nibble, causing him to fall behind/make mistakes. 

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I think those in points leagues almost have to start covey next week as an rp as he draws the same Indians that he’s beaten and Oakland unless you have an elite closer.

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1 hour ago, ghostdragon said:

I think those in points leagues almost have to start covey next week as an rp as he draws the same Indians that he’s beaten and Oakland unless you have an elite closer.

 

Obviously some things depend on your settings, but a team as good as Cleveland getting to see a fastball thrower in close proximity back-to-back is not something I necessarily put in Covey's favor. 

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I like the sinker/change up combo a lot.  While the no home runs allowed is obviously unsustainable, should we expect the ground ball rate and home runs allowed to continue working in Covey's favor?  If so he seems like a safer start than a headcase like Godley.

 

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