Rolling Thunder

George Kittle 2018 Outlook

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It stole this from a post in another forum:

 

Last season:

 

Kittle: 43 catches/515 yards/2 TD’s

 

OJ Howard: 26 catches/432 yards/6 TD’s


Evan Engram: 64/722/6

 

Rookie seasons of all other TE’s in the Top 10 in receiving yards in 2017:


Graham: 31 catches/356 yards/5 TD’s
Gronk: 42/456/10
Ertz: 36/469/4
Vernon Davis: 20/265/3
Kelce: Missed rookie year due to injury
Delanie Waker: 2/30/0
Jack Doyle: 5/19/0
Jared Cook: 9/74/0
Cameron Brate: 1/17/0

 

Some pundits believe that Kittle is should be on the short list of sophomores or juniors who are poised to break out this season:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-breakout-players-heres-a-look-at-10-who-are-poised-for-big-things-this-season/

 

Kittle could not have a better QB to work with.

 

In Shanahan's multifaceted offense, it is unlikely that a TE will ever lead the league in targets.  However, we play in a world where modest regular production, supplemented by a big game here and there, defines a decent fantasy TE starter.  Is Kittle likely to be one in 2018, and if so, who are his value comps?

 

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Love this dude.  I fully do expect a breakout of sorts this year.  Only concern is if he can stay healthy.  I'd expect around 60 catches, 700 yards and 6-7 tds.  Dudes profile is amazing.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Love this dude.  I fully do expect a breakout of sorts this year.  Only concern is if he can stay healthy.  I'd expect around 60 catches, 700 yards and 6-7 tds.  Dudes profile is amazing.

 

That stat line would make him a top 8 TE in PPR.  FFC has him as the 13th TE off the board, wedged between Eifert and Doyle.  With all the uncertainties surrounding those guys, Kittle looks to represent better value.

 

Here is the thing.  Kittle could find himself in the middle of a very prolific offense.  Jimmy G is already turning heads, and we're barely into OTAs.  Yes, the ball is going to be spread around, but the pie may be big enough to net Kittle a tidy little year.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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Buy buy buy buy.

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He was in a timeshare last year. Why is everyone so quick to believe that will change this year? Shanahan doesn't forcefed TEs.

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3 hours ago, joshua18 said:

He was in a timeshare last year. Why is everyone so quick to believe that will change this year? Shanahan doesn't forcefed TEs.

 

He played through an injury.  That had something to do with it.

 

He is a better player than Celek.  That much we know.

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10 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

He played through an injury.  That had something to do with it.

 

He is a better player than Celek.  That much we know.

 

He wasn't hurt all season. The hype is getting ridiculous for him until we see his snap share indicative that Shanahan trusts him as an every down player.

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4 hours ago, joshua18 said:

He was in a timeshare last year. Why is everyone so quick to believe that will change this year? Shanahan doesn't forcefed TEs.

Very rarely do TE's come in and have an immediate impact in their first year.  Look at Howard and Njoku.  I'd say the rapport he showed down the stretch with Jimmy G bodes well.  

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While I agree that there's not much here to say for sure he's getting targeted often, there's no real reason to discount him more than any other TE2 right now.    Kittle has an uncertain role, but he's on a team that likely is pass heavy, with some decent receivers young and old, but no all pros or anything.    The rest of the TE2's all have their share of question marks, be it health, youth, shared role, run first offense, or "being Jared Cook".   Kittle's just as good as anybody there I guess.  

 

I'll keep him top of mind as a TE2, but only in one league will i make TE2 a priority.   I'm also considering wasting a roster spot to grab both Eifert and Kroft to lock in a 2nd TE.  

 

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People really expect Jimmy G to throw for 4500 yards and 35 TD's, but are afraid to draft Garcon and Goodwin in rounds 6-8 and are letting Kittle fall out of the draft .....

 

 

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50 minutes ago, GhostOfCap said:

People really expect Jimmy G to throw for 4500 yards and 35 TD's, but are afraid to draft Garcon and Goodwin in rounds 6-8 and are letting Kittle fall out of the draft .....

 

 

 

Exactly.  

 

Yes, JG only has a handful of real NFL games under his belt, but given all the data points we have, it would be a real surprise if SF isn't one of the top yardage and, perhaps, scoring offenses in the league.  Do folks realize that with a far weaker supporting cast than JG has now, and with almost no in-depth knowledge of the offense, JG tore up a JAX team in a game that JAX needed to the tune of 44 pts?  

 

SF is in a perfect storm offensively right now.  That storm is likely to make fantasy stars out of at least some pieces there.

 

 

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Kittle has more upside than Engram, but also more risk.

 

If you miss out on one of the top TE’s Kittle is a great choice late.

 

I’ve frequently (in the practice drafts) been skipping on TEs early and either drafting Kittle or Brate.

 

If you miss on Gronk, Ertz, or Kelce.  There is little difference in the next 10 TEs.  

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Lots to like about kittle.

 

1. Good blocker. More advanced than other rookies coming in. Guarantees more playing time, less of a learning curve.

2. Above average speed. Gets yards after the catch.

3. Played WR in high school. He's much more of a receiving TE than a blocking TE, exactly what we look for in fantasy.

 

Nobody knows what his role will be, but he's one to watch in the pre-season.

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On 5/25/2018 at 2:35 PM, seanismorris said:

Kittle has more upside than Engram, but also more risk.

 

If you miss out on one of the top TE’s Kittle is a great choice late.

 

I’ve frequently (in the practice drafts) been skipping on TEs early and either drafting Kittle or Brate.

 

If you miss on Gronk, Ertz, or Kelce.  There is little difference in the next 10 TEs.  

 

Agree-ish for the most part, though Jimmy Graham’s TD upside elevates him above those 10 next.

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My concern is that the TE doesn't seem like a focus in Shanny's offensive scheme.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

My concern is that the TE doesn't seem like a focus in Shanny's offensive scheme.

 

It's not.  So even though Kittle's measureables are as good as Howard's, it is unlikely he'll ever see the volume that Gronk, Kelce and Ertz see.

 

At the same time, if you believe that the offense is going to move the ball very well, Kittle will likely get a nice number of RZ opportunities.  He is the best they have, and JG is accurate enough to give him his shots.

 

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On 5/25/2018 at 5:39 PM, predator_05 said:

Lots to like about kittle.

 

1. Good blocker. More advanced than other rookies coming in. Guarantees more playing time, less of a learning curve.

2. Elite speed and explosiveness. Gets yards after the catch.

3. Played WR in high school. He's much more of a receiving TE than a blocking TE, exactly what we look for in fantasy.

 

Nobody knows what his role will be, but he's one to watch in the pre-season.

FTFY

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On 5/25/2018 at 8:56 AM, GhostOfCap said:

People really expect Jimmy G to throw for 4500 yards and 35 TD's, but are afraid to draft Garcon and Goodwin in rounds 6-8 and are letting Kittle fall out of the draft .....

 

 

 

Agreed in that JG has to throw to someone, but from where I sit people are waaaaayy too optimistic regarding Garoppolo’s projected season.

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17 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

It's not.  So even though Kittle's measureables are as good as Howard's, it is unlikely he'll ever see the volume that Gronk, Kelce and Ertz see.

 

At the same time, if you believe that the offense is going to move the ball very well, Kittle will likely get a nice number of RZ opportunities.  He is the best they have, and JG is accurate enough to give him his shots.

 

 

He's clearly the #1 rz option imo.

 

And we should keep in mind that JG has been schooled for years in reading the tight end when going through progressions as well. 

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Just FYI, Celek has been getting plenty of love in OTAs so far.  An equal timeshare at a position that Shanahan doesn't necessarily feature is a real possibility based on history and the off-season so far.

 

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On ‎5‎/‎28‎/‎2018 at 10:40 AM, 96mnc said:

 

He's clearly the #1 rz option imo.

 

And we should keep in mind that JG has been schooled for years in reading the tight end when going through progressions as well. 

Does it matter what Jimmy G learned in NE though? Shanny Jr has a history of not involving the TE much in his offensive scheme. That is my main concern. If Kittle just becomes a RZ option, that means he becomes TD dependent. Which relegates him completely to standard scoring mostly.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

Does it matter what Jimmy G learned in NE though? Shanny Jr has a history of not involving the TE much in his offensive scheme. That is my main concern. If Kittle just becomes a RZ option, that means he becomes TD dependent. Which relegates him completely to standard scoring mostly.

 

Didn't Barnidge break out under Shanny in Cleveland?  Too lazy to look right now. 

 

Regardless, I still believe that the way JG was developed in NE will have some carry over on the way he processes the field.   Jmo though.

 

What were TE targets per game when he took over?   I know RB targets plummeted.

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Barnidge was definitely an outlier.

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