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Shane Bieber 2018 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

You are assuming Bieber will be the exact same pitcher he has been so far.  I am saying he will not, mainly because of his batted ball profile.  He has a 1.40 WHIP.  There is no way to spin that.  I am projecting that his future will not be as successful as his past.  What part of this do you not understand?  I don’t care about his last month because I think luck and  clubs seeing him for their first time has something to do with his success.

 

As for Wheeler?  He had a 3.26 ERA with good ratios, QS, but not great with wins.  I am projecting that he will continue this success if not get better.  He also has the benefit of possibly being traded to a contender which would skyrocket his value.  Zack Wheeler on a team like, say the Dodgers?  I’m in.

Edited by ShaneMT
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Posted (edited)

Way, way too much contact off him.  Taking a pass for now.  Reminds me of that former Twins control artist who got shellacked when he was even a bit off.

Edited by BMcP

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, ShaneMT said:

You are assuming Bieber will be the exact same pitcher he has been so far.  I am saying he will not, mainly because of his batted ball profile.  He has a 1.40 WHIP.  There is no way to spin that.  I am projecting that his future will not be as successful as his past.  What part of this do you not understand?  I don’t care about his last month because I think luck and  clubs seeing him for their first time has something to do with his success.

 

As for Wheeler?  He had a 3.26 ERA with good ratios, QS, but not great with wins.  I am projecting that he will continue this success if not get better.  He also has the benefit of possibly being traded to a contender which would skyrocket his value.  Zack Wheeler on a team like, say the Dodgers?  I’m in.

 

Again there is no "luck" factor involved in his last month as the peripherals say he probably deserves BETTER luck aside. So he has been unlucky if anything. Not sure what you don't understand about that and keep bringing up peripherals yourself

Edited by terminator10
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16 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

No, it's a fact that it wasn't ruled an error.  It was an error.  MLB official scoring on a lot of plays have become a complete joke.  Not just because of what happened today. Anyways though, to not get off track, even the Cleveland announcer thought it should have been ruled an error.  He was basically in shock when they ruled it a hit.  Sure, maybe the second inning goes differently if he faced some of those extra hitters that he had to face in the first instead in the second, but that first inning play by Lindor still very likely changed the way the whole game would have went.  You throw 9 pitches in the first inning in an easy 1, 2, 3 inning instead of what actually happened, and it's hard not to believe things would have went much differently.  Even after all that, he still went out losing 1-0 and then had his defense let him down again (Encarnacion).

 

Obviously though, for whatever reason, it doesn't matter what anyone else says.  Shane Bieber is trash and it doesn't matter how many mistakes his team makes in the field or how many calls an umpire blows.

 

Don't go blaming official scoring because it negatively impacted your guy. Yeah, it may not be perfect, but it will help and hurt at random times. It's part of the game, so many judgement calls. I don't know how focusing on the 1 play changes the outcome of the game. I mean, right before Piscotty went yard Olson hit an absolute bullet right at Guyer in right. Two batters after Piscotty Semien drilled a ball to left for a long single. 

The at bat to Piscotty is Bieber in a nutshell. Gets a guy to 1-2, afraid to pitch outside of the zone, catches too much of the plate and there it goes. He's given up 4 HR in 6 starts. His HR rate is virtually twice of what it was at any stop in the minors. He gives up far, far, far too much contact. How you can't see that is beyond me. 

I love Shane Bieber. I love his potential, but come on man. The dude plays in the zone too much, and the major league level hitter is going to do more with that pitch than minor league guys. Not even mentioning the "new ball" and all that jazz. 

Bieber needs to figure out a way to limit contact. Whether it's refining a pitch, playing more outside of the zone, whatever, he's got to change something. I think he will. He's got good stuff, but he's got to stop throwing so many strikes all the time. If a hitter knows a guy has a tendency to always be in the zone, they are geared up to swing constantly. More balls going to be in play, more chances for hits (even unfortunate ones) and more chances for the ball to leave the yard. 

Bieber is giving up too much contact (especially hard contact) right now. Plain and simple. Again, I think he can do something about it. You don't have to get so emotional about the "Shane Bieber is trash and it doesn't matter how many mistakes his team makes" blah blah blah. 4 other guys pitch in that rotation too. I don't think the fielders are packing it in on days Bieber throws. 

 

Bieber could have a very solid major league career, he just needs to hone is his craft some more. Right now, you can expect up and down starts, in the future, he may be a safer play in general. If he gets a ground ball out of Piscotty in the sixth he likely goes 7 still (facing the bottom of the order) if it results in a DP with Davis on first. He didn't. He caught way too much of the plate and an average major league hitter made him pay. So you can blame the fielders all you want, but he controlled his own fate in the sixth. No need to throw that good of a pitch to the 6th hitter in Oaklands lineup who is sitting on a 1-2 count. 

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13 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

 

Don't go blaming official scoring because it negatively impacted your guy. Yeah, it may not be perfect, but it will help and hurt at random times. It's part of the game, so many judgement calls. I don't know how focusing on the 1 play changes the outcome of the game. I mean, right before Piscotty went yard Olson hit an absolute bullet right at Guyer in right. Two batters after Piscotty Semien drilled a ball to left for a long single. 

The at bat to Piscotty is Bieber in a nutshell. Gets a guy to 1-2, afraid to pitch outside of the zone, catches too much of the plate and there it goes. He's given up 4 HR in 6 starts. His HR rate is virtually twice of what it was at any stop in the minors. He gives up far, far, far too much contact. How you can't see that is beyond me. 

I love Shane Bieber. I love his potential, but come on man. The dude plays in the zone too much, and the major league level hitter is going to do more with that pitch than minor league guys. Not even mentioning the "new ball" and all that jazz. 

Bieber needs to figure out a way to limit contact. Whether it's refining a pitch, playing more outside of the zone, whatever, he's got to change something. I think he will. He's got good stuff, but he's got to stop throwing so many strikes all the time. If a hitter knows a guy has a tendency to always be in the zone, they are geared up to swing constantly. More balls going to be in play, more chances for hits (even unfortunate ones) and more chances for the ball to leave the yard. 

Bieber is giving up too much contact (especially hard contact) right now. Plain and simple. Again, I think he can do something about it. You don't have to get so emotional about the "Shane Bieber is trash and it doesn't matter how many mistakes his team makes" blah blah blah. 4 other guys pitch in that rotation too. I don't think the fielders are packing it in on days Bieber throws. 

 

Bieber could have a very solid major league career, he just needs to hone is his craft some more. Right now, you can expect up and down starts, in the future, he may be a safer play in general. If he gets a ground ball out of Piscotty in the sixth he likely goes 7 still (facing the bottom of the order) if it results in a DP with Davis on first. He didn't. He caught way too much of the plate and an average major league hitter made him pay. So you can blame the fielders all you want, but he controlled his own fate in the sixth. No need to throw that good of a pitch to the 6th hitter in Oaklands lineup who is sitting on a 1-2 count. 

When even the announcer for the Indians makes a comment that it should have been ruled an error, then maybe something is wrong with the scoring on the play.  I'm not sure why it's such blasphemy to say they made th

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13 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

 

Don't go blaming official scoring because it negatively impacted your guy. Yeah, it may not be perfect, but it will help and hurt at random times. It's part of the game, so many judgement calls. I don't know how focusing on the 1 play changes the outcome of the game. I mean, right before Piscotty went yard Olson hit an absolute bullet right at Guyer in right. Two batters after Piscotty Semien drilled a ball to left for a long single. 

The at bat to Piscotty is Bieber in a nutshell. Gets a guy to 1-2, afraid to pitch outside of the zone, catches too much of the plate and there it goes. He's given up 4 HR in 6 starts. His HR rate is virtually twice of what it was at any stop in the minors. He gives up far, far, far too much contact. How you can't see that is beyond me. 

I love Shane Bieber. I love his potential, but come on man. The dude plays in the zone too much, and the major league level hitter is going to do more with that pitch than minor league guys. Not even mentioning the "new ball" and all that jazz. 

Bieber needs to figure out a way to limit contact. Whether it's refining a pitch, playing more outside of the zone, whatever, he's got to change something. I think he will. He's got good stuff, but he's got to stop throwing so many strikes all the time. If a hitter knows a guy has a tendency to always be in the zone, they are geared up to swing constantly. More balls going to be in play, more chances for hits (even unfortunate ones) and more chances for the ball to leave the yard. 

Bieber is giving up too much contact (especially hard contact) right now. Plain and simple. Again, I think he can do something about it. You don't have to get so emotional about the "Shane Bieber is trash and it doesn't matter how many mistakes his team makes" blah blah blah. 4 other guys pitch in that rotation too. I don't think the fielders are packing it in on days Bieber throws. 

 

Bieber could have a very solid major league career, he just needs to hone is his craft some more. Right now, you can expect up and down starts, in the future, he may be a safer play in general. If he gets a ground ball out of Piscotty in the sixth he likely goes 7 still (facing the bottom of the order) if it results in a DP with Davis on first. He didn't. He caught way too much of the plate and an average major league hitter made him pay. So you can blame the fielders all you want, but he controlled his own fate in the sixth. No need to throw that good of a pitch to the 6th hitter in Oaklands lineup who is sitting on a 1-2 count. 

If the announcer for the Indians says it should have been an error, then maybe there''s more to it than just me having Shane Bieber on my fantasy team.  That definitely brings the decision into question when he says there should have been an error give to one of the players on "his" team.

 

One play can totally change a game, especially in a game that could have been a very close game.  Not quite sure how that's so hard to grasp.  I don't mean to be rude or insulting, but it's ridiculous for me to point out negative things that happened in the game that directly affected the outcome of the first two innings of the game?  It makes no sense.  It's as if people think the critical mistakes that Lindor and Encarnacion were actually meaningless and that the whole outcome of the game is strictly Bieber's fault.

 

I'm aware that there are 4 other guys in the rotation, and I never once said that the Indians are packing it in on the days that Bieber pitches.  Once again, I'm not quite sure where you even got that from.  It was two plays in the last game.  I did mention in the previous game that the Royals got a couple of lucky hits and Guyer lost a ball he should have been able to catch that got caught in the wind, but that's still not implying that they pack it in for his starts.

 

Yes, he controlled his own fate in the 6th.  I never said he was flawless and every run in the game was the team's fault.  Just the first two.  Yes, the final two runs he gave up were all his fault.  Still, it should have been 2-0 then.  Hardly a concerning start or anything like that.  And no, I don't think Shane Bieber is the greatest pitcher in the world or anything.  He's a rookie and obviously needs to work on things, but not everything rests on his shoulders all the time.  Not much you can do it you make the pitches and your team lets you down, and once again, I'm only talking about the last start.

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Regarding the luck issue:

 

A .380 BaBIP is usually unsustainable; however, Bieber is getting hit Hard or Medium a ridiculous 91.1% (per Fangraphs) which helps support the elevated BaBIP. 

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Looked solid to me against the Yanks. Am I reading that a young pitcher that throws strikes and doesnt like to walk batters is a bad thing?

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5th win in the last 6 starts....including now a respectable performance against NYY. Yep he's staying on my roster ROS. Good source of Ks, great source of Ws and QS, excellent in K:BB leagues, and keeps the ratios managable.

Edited by terminator10
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1 minute ago, terminator10 said:

5th win in the last 6 starts....including now a respectable performance against NYY. Yep he's staying on my roster ROS. Good source of Ks, great source of Ws and QS, excellent in K:BB leagues, and keeps the ratios managable.

Yeah, it was encouraging.  I didn't pitch him because of the matchup, but it makes me feel even better about having him for the second half.

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This guy is only 23 years old. The hard hit rate is something to monitor but he still has a lot of time to develop. I am very encouraged by the first 40 or so innings of his career. 

 

His GB/FB rate is 1.50 (that would rank 20th out of qualified starters, he is only at 40 innings though) which will limit the damage caused by the hard hit balls. His hard hit rate and GB/FB will be something to keep track of as his career progresses.

 

I looked at rookie seasons for 22 to 24 year olds since 2008. His swinging strike rate (11.4 %) ranks 22nd out of 217 starters. Link

 

If you lower the innings requirement to 40 for this season, his SwStr % ranks 40th out of 158 starters. He is ahead of Greinke (11.1 %, 47th), Kluber (11.0 %, 51st), Kershaw (10.9 %, 52nd). He's behind Strasburg (11.6 %, 33rd), Nola (11.8 %, 31st), Berrios (11.5 %, 39th). Link

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Sent down today. I assume just to make room for an extra bat. Or do they want him to face batters in AAA over the break? Wonder what his innings limit might be on the year.

 

Will he be up again after the break? Dont know who else they would be pitching in the 5 spot.

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11 minutes ago, Lebanasty said:

Sent down today. I assume just to make room for an extra bat. Or do they want him to face batters in AAA over the break? Wonder what his innings limit might be on the year.

 

Will he be up again after the break? Dont know who else they would be pitching in the 5 spot.

 

He'll be back up.  Indians just using the option so they can bring up another bat for the remainder of the weekend.  Bieber has really come out of nowhere this year and it's really hard to complain at the results.   A head's up for weekly leaguers, he likely won't pitch in that first series back after the break at Texas.

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Expected to remain in the rotation ROS then? Provided he performs of course.

 

Took a chance on him in a trade in a keeper league. Love Indians pitcher/coach, love the division for them, great lineup behind him, loads to like. Need to decide if I bring him up as a super two (special rule in our league) or hold him down until next year.

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Yes, he’s supposed to be back right after the ASB. I like Bieber a lot but as some have mentioned in this thread he gives up to much contact. His strikeouts are decent and he doesn’t walk many batters but that could be a problem. He can’t throw every pitch in the zone.

he needs to work out of the zone a bit. 

 

9 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

Expected to remain in the rotation ROS then? Provided he performs of course.

 

Took a chance on him in a trade in a keeper league. Love Indians pitcher/coach, love the division for them, great lineup behind him, loads to like. Need to decide if I bring him up as a super two (special rule in our league) or hold him down until next year.

 

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