smeeze

June Closer Thread 2018

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On 6/6/2018 at 12:53 PM, kwolf68 said:

Not really a closer comment, for MLB at least, but keep your eyes on D-Backs Jimmie Sherfy. In his last 11 innings in AAA he has 8 saves, given up 1 run and has struck out 26 of the 33 possible outs. Do not know why he isn't in Arizona, but he is an arm to keep your eye on. Not necessarily young (26), but a pitcher who may end up in higher leverage situations at some point, if not in Arizona somewhere else. It's clear he has nothing left to prove in AAA as a closer/setup guy. 

 

Sherfy called up. Hope this trip is permanent. The dude has great stuff, future closer in Arizona. 

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

 

Why is it important to prove this point?  How does this advance the conversation? Clearly, the point here is that Peralta could offer considerable value for anyone chasing saves.  Who cares exactly how many he notches?

 

I think anyone chasing saves from a guy like Peralta will care how many he notches because it’s the reason they would decide to invest FAAB or waiver priority or a roster spot or whatever the cost to invest is...

 

I was offering a differing opinion on the claim that Peralta could notch 20 saves RoS (ridiculous), sorry for the dissention. 

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16 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

I think anyone chasing saves from a guy like Peralta will care how many he notches because it’s the reason they would decide to invest FAAB or waiver priority or a roster spot or whatever the cost to invest is...

 

I was offering a differing opinion on the claim that Peralta could notch 20 saves RoS (ridiculous), sorry for the dissention. 

I think the decision to invest FAAB in Peralta has more to do with the other guys available rather than something completely unpredictable like saves on a bad team outlook (2017 Colome ahem).  Saves are about opportunity on a a given team.  He has it.  

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50 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

I think anyone chasing saves from a guy like Peralta will care how many he notches because it’s the reason they would decide to invest FAAB or waiver priority or a roster spot or whatever the cost to invest is...

 

I was offering a differing opinion on the claim that Peralta could notch 20 saves RoS (ridiculous), sorry for the dissention. 

 

But it is fundamentally unknowable due to the nature of reality - no one knows what the future holds.  No need to apologize for providing a differing opinion - but if you’re making a prediction, perhaps it would be more helpful to explain your projection and accompanying rationale, rather than fixate on one particular number you disagree with.

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2 hours ago, juice219 said:

I'm still confused why Romo didn't start the 9th to begin with. He wasn't even the first the  right hander in the games the manager was playing with  alternating pitchers.  Dude has got the team's last 5 saves.  Is he the closer or not?

 

Because Harper, Soto & Murphy were due up, so Rays went with the lefty.

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

 

But it is fundamentally unknowable due to the nature of reality - no one knows what the future holds.  No need to apologize for providing a differing opinion - but if you’re making a prediction, perhaps it would be more helpful to explain your projection and accompanying rationale, rather than fixate on one particular number you disagree with.

 

13 hours ago, smeeze said:

 

20 more saves for the Royals?

 

They would have to win 20 more games, have each one of them be a save opp, convert every single one and have Peralta available for each opp. I'd set the o/u on Peralta save opps rest of season at 9.5

 

I laid it out pretty clearly above, and I wasn't fixating on the number 20. I set the line at 9.5 and took the under, which implies I doubt he gets 10, and that was contingent on enticing half the betting public on taking the over. In my opinion he gets 4 or 5 rest of season with a 4+ ERA and a 1.50+ WHIP, and if that helps you: have at it. 

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I mean, 4-5 if he retains the role does not seem realistic whatsoever.  As has been long established, there is a very weak correlation between team-caliber and save opportunities, so I assume this has to do with his perceived lack of makeup/stuff.  He sports an unusually diverse arsenal for a closer, and routinely neared the top of the list for average FB velo as a starter in his time.

 

Perhaps I missed your explanation of why you believe he won’t be successful, but I will cycle back to find it.

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

I mean, 4-5 if he retains the role does not seem realistic whatsoever.  As has been long established, there is a very weak correlation between team-caliber and save opportunities, so I assume this has to do with his perceived lack of makeup/stuff.  He sports an unusually diverse arsenal for a closer, and routinely neared the top of the list for average FB velo as a starter in his time.

 

Perhaps I missed your explanation of why you believe he won’t be successful, but I will cycle back to find it.

 

It's ok, I got you. Career 4.47 ERA, 1.45 WHIP. I just think he's not a good pitcher. If he was on a half decent team, I'd be willing to take the chance. But the combination of garbage pitcher + (potentially) historically garbage team? I don't understand the appeal at all. 

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4 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

It's ok, I got you. Career 4.47 ERA, 1.45 WHIP. I just think he's not a good pitcher. If he was on a half decent team, I'd be willing to take the chance. But the combination of garbage pitcher + (potentially) historically garbage team? I don't understand the appeal at all. 

 

I appreciate it - I agree that he came out of LF as an option and admit I didn’t understand it at first.  I used to watch him regularly (due to his intriguing upside) and I felt like he had conditioning issues that prevented him from remaining effective into the middle innings.  I think the appeal here is, maybe he follows the failed-starter-cum-effective reliever trajectory a la Davis, Betances, etc.  I’m interested to see what he can do with the role.

Edited by BMcP
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Wily Peralta sucks

 

Source: MLB

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

 

I appreciate it - I agree that he came out of LF as an option and admit I didn’t understand it at first.  I used to watch him regularly (due to his intriguing upside) and I felt like he had conditioning issues that prevented him from remaining effective into the middle innings.  I think the appeal here is, maybe he follows the failed-starter-cum-effective reliever trajectory a la Davis, Betances, etc.  I’m interested to see what he can do with the role.

 

And normally I would be totally on board - but it's the Royals, and when they trade away Moose, Merrifield and potentially more? I just don't think the juice will be worth the squeeze here. 

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8 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

And normally I would be totally on board - but it's the Royals, and when they trade away Moose, Merrifield and potentially more? I just don't think the juice will be worth the squeeze here. 

As one of the resident Royals’ fans here, I fully agree. They’re going to be battling the O’s for worst record in baseball and Peralta has recently proven that he’s not all that good at getting Triple A players out, yet alone major leaguers. That being said, if you’re desperate for saves and have a roster spot available I wouldn’t blame you for giving it a shot. Personally I think you’d be crazy to put him in your starting lineup until he pitches a couple more clean innings, but stashing him on your bench doesn’t sound too horrible.

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Iglesias in for the 4 out save and got screwed out of a K by the ump and had to face two batters in the 8th.  

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Great. Rondon was in line for a save until HOU went off in the 8th. 

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By the way, Shane Greene has lost games on back-to-back nights.  Both games were A's-Tigers, so I don't blame anyone for missing it.

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Back to back painless saves from boxberger. Seems to have righted the ship... and Bradley and hirano struggled in the game 

Edited by cyberer

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Cishek pitching in the 6th of a 7-2 game...

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6 hours ago, kwolf68 said:

 

Sherfy called up. Hope this trip is permanent. The dude has great stuff, future closer in Arizona. 

 

Eh...a 26yr old with walk issues. I'm not saying he won't be a stud, but I'm less-than-enthused right now. If he gets back to his walk rate of 2017 and stops walking batters at the rate of 2014-16 and 2018, then I'll be interested. But he's not replacing Box anytime soon. 

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7 minutes ago, fourstar said:

Dyson has really had buzzards luck since taking over.

 

Were you watching the game? What happened?

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