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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Ok, I get that, but Henry has 1-2" and 30lbs on him. That's a lot. And have you seen a lot of impressive underneath stuff from him? Or any good route?

 

I'll keep my mind and my eyes open, but it'll be on the wire for me.

 

 

Couple things here. 

 

1) The big bodied TE I think will be gates as we get closer to regular season 

 

2) I read they will probably move him underneath in camp and wouldn't be shocked if he did well. He's a good strong receiver. I believe he can win anywhere on the field. 

 

You see where I have him slotted though, so it's not like I'm 100% sold on him either. 

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3 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Crow, you're probably right.  I read he's catching out of the back field too in TC which is pretty cool, but in PPR I just don't really like these 10 reception per year guys.  His 40 receptions a couple years ago even with Duke J on the team show he can be multi-faceted.  I'm liking him the more I hear about him, but I'm fairly sure that he won't be slipping to me at this point the more I read on him.

 

Mike Williams was a baller in college that never got healthy for the NFL and always played catch up and he wasn't either:  Smart enough to learn the book fast enough and be where Rivers wanted him, or he never truly recovered until the season was already lost.  He may very well be a bust, but I'm not ready to just stick a fork in a guy after 1 lost season.  He's got too many things that I like to not consider taking a flyer on him.

 

Ridley, I am a big fan of.  Reading what you say and what I believe of him, I'm moving him up.  Not sure why I had him so low to begin with.  I'm a believer in this guy and I don't think he's going to need to wait until 2019 to be that guy he can be.  He's got skills.  He's not just a fast guy who can go over college defenders, he's a fast guy that can do everything.

 

CPatt for me is just one of those dart throws.  I'm sure BB brought him in for his return game work, which appeals to me, but in my league that's not enough to hold any real value.  It's only enough to turn a 40-50 reception / 500 yards / 3-5 TDs guy to more relevance.  I know the return work will be there.  What I'm unsure of is the WR5 work.  I throw a dart at him though because of all the WR turmoil there and I truly believe he's a much better receiver than Hogan and can steal that role from Hogan while maintaining his return game work.  If he's a returner only though, he'd be my first drop probably.

 

Thanks for your thoughts and opinions on these guys.

 

Hoping BB uses CPatt like Tyreke Hill. 

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Mike Williams and Calvin Ridley are some late-round flyers I keep targeting. Why not bet on college football's best WR last year (Ridley) & a former top 10 pick (Williams)? Both have good QB's to deliver them the ball, and both play opposite attention-grabbing WR1's in Julio and Keenan. When in doubt, bet on talent. 

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On 8/4/2018 at 4:11 PM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Thanks for your thoughts and opinions on these guys.

 

Here are my first thoughts of the RBs you may find post pick #100. I am looking for guys that have a path to fantasy relevance. None of these guys will make it big from day one, but the clearer the path, the better.


I get there by a process of elimination, so first a couple offenses I want no part of:
- Oak / Marshawn Lynch / Doug Martin / Jalen Richard
- Mia / Kenyan Drake / Frank Gore / Kalen Ballage
- Bal / Alex Collins / Kenneth Dixon / Javorius Allen

I don't like the offense, I don't think the RB1 is an RB1, and I don't see a clear path to fantasy relevance for any of them, even though there is clearly talent. 

Then some offenses I do like:
- GB / Aaron Jones / Jamaal Williams / Ty Montgomery
- Det / Kerryon Johnson / LeGarrette Blount / Theo Riddick
- Cle / Carlos Hyde / Duke Johnson / Nick Chubb
- Was / Derrius Guice / Chris Thompson / Samaje Perine
Here the problem is there are too many options. Hyde, Duke or Chubb? Maybe it's an RBBC, maybe one of these guys breaks out (clearly there's no lack of talent here), but I can't have all three so I will have neither. I have bolded three guys that I think are the steal because of how low they go, but you may have other favorites.

On the other hand, the following are to me great pairs of RBs and if I could, I'd have both:
- NO / Alvin Kamara / Mark Ingram    
- Atl / Devonta Freeman / Tevin Coleman
- Ten / Derrick Henry / Dion Lewis
- Chi / Jordan Howard / Tarik Cohen
Not really sleepers though, these are all well before pick 100. Probably no fights over these names.

So, that leaves me with the following guys who I see as "early" sleepers, with the average ADP based on FantasyPros: 
103.7    C.J. Anderson CAR (4): first up behind CMC, and of course Cam (I realise that's a problem). I don't think he will be super productive from week 1, but his time will come.
127.7    D'Onta Foreman HOU (10): behind Lamar Miller. I can see him getting a good share.
138.7    Latavius Murray MIN (10): behind Dalvin Cook. ex-Pats (hehe) often don't score as well outside the Pats offense, so there is definitely a chance for Latavius to get some of his own here.
141.7    Devontae Booker DEN (10): Royce is the new kid on the block, and that's a potential stud, but Booker isn't dead yet.
I will probably try to get 1 or 2 of these 4 for my bench, depending on how well I did in the first 7 rounds; I'll be hoping for 500-800 yrds production from these guys.

And "deep sleepers":
186    Spencer Ware KC (12): This guy is ridiculously cheap behind Hunt. OK, he missed all of 2017, but have we forgotten 2016? That was pretty ok, right?
214    Chris Ivory BUF (11): I'm not really a believer in McCoy. They're going to need Ivory, and then some.
251    Wayne Gallman NYG (9): yeah ok, don't draft him, he will be on the wire. But of Saquon fails, I don't think JStew is going to replace him, and Gallman will be relevant.
On a very deep bench, I think there could be place for one of these; I hope it's Spencer.

Next up, WRs. In the meantime, please point out all my mistakes, misunderstandings and mysterious evaluations. Thanks!

Edit: @Dreams And Dwightmares, I see now that I dissed Booker and Ivory (a bit) in your post, and now I give them as sleepers :P 

 

Edited by Boudewijn
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8 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

Here are my first thoughts of the RBs you may find post pick #100. I am looking for guys that have a path to fantasy relevance. None of these guys will make it big from day one, but the clearer the path, the better.


I get there by a process of elimination, so first a couple offenses I want no part of:
- Oak / Marshawn Lynch / Doug Martin / Jalen Richard
- Mia / Kenyan Drake / Frank Gore / Kalen Ballage
- Bal / Alex Collins / Kenneth Dixon / Javorius Allen

I don't like the offense, I don't think the RB1 is an RB1, and I don't see a clear path to fantasy relevance for any of them, even though there is clearly talent. 

138.7    Latavius Murray MIN (10): behind Dalvin Cook. ex-Pats (hehe) often don't score as well outside the Pats offense, so there is definitely a chance for Latavius to get some of his own here.
 

 

Murray never played for the Pats, I think you're confusing him with Legarette Blount?

 

Sure, you might not like the offense, but Martin, Gore, and Dixon have a path to relevance.  Lynch is 32 and looked tired, and Martin has buzz in camp.  Gore was just listed as co-starter, which implies he will have a role.  And Dixon was their RB of the future prior to injury.  I think anybody with an opportunity to touches is worth a look.  Crowell is on the crappy Jets, but as RB1, you still have to consider rostering him on your team especially  for ADP.

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16 minutes ago, CooL said:

Murray never played for the Pats, I think you're confusing him with Legarette Blount?

I had a brainfart there. Thanks for reading properly.
 

16 minutes ago, CooL said:

Sure, you might not like the offense, but Martin, Gore, and Dixon have a path to relevance.  

Yes, but I don't trust their coaches, I don't trust their offense, and they have somebody pushing up behind them who is not much worse. That's why I prefer not to pick them and instead concentrate on the ones mentioned lower down.

Edit: I guess the question is: do you prefer an RB1 on a bad offense, or an RB2 on a good offense?

Edited by Boudewijn
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30 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I get there by a process of elimination, so first a couple offenses I want no part of:

- Bal / Alex Collins / Kenneth Dixon / Javorius Allen


Then some offenses I do like:
- Was / Derrius Guice / Chris Thompson / Samaje Perine

So, that leaves me with the following guys who I see as "early" sleepers, with the average ADP based on FantasyPros: 
103.7    C.J. Anderson CAR (4): first up behind CMC, and of course Cam (I realise that's a problem). I don't think he will be super productive from week 1, but his time will come.
127.7    D'Onta Foreman HOU (10): behind Lamar Miller. I can see him getting a good share.
138.7    Latavius Murray MIN (10): behind Dalvin Cook. ex-Pats (hehe) often don't score as well outside the Pats offense, so there is definitely a chance for Latavius to get some of his own here.

 

Solid post. Agreed all in all. Though I'll toss out my two cents regarding the highlights (above) for what it's worth.

 

Take a look at Alex Collins' highlights from last year. Dixon being the health risk, Allen being the receiving back, I'd suggest you can do a lot worse for your fantasy team's RB2 than Collins, especially in standard. Don't want you to miss out ;)

 

I love CThompson in PPR. Or "loved," maybe: his statement last week about being doubtful for Week 1 is not inspiring confidence. I'd say the statement will depress his ADP, but really it's already low. He's still on my "get" list for PPR leagues, but significantly lower until hearing some positive health reports.

 

I liked CJA a lot more before Norv Turner announced that CMcC will get 15 touches every quarter... I still like CJA at his ADP, though.

 

Despite medical advances, I don't see D'Onta Forman as a get. Forgive me for suggesting that an achilles is the achilles of all RBs.

 

I'm a 'Nole, and as such support Dalvin Cook 100%, but realistically I'm skeptical of his NFL durability until he proves otherwise. With health in mind, LMurray seems like a good get, and although I never liked him as a Raider, he ran well last season as a Viking.

 

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And WR sleepers:
 

Some guys I don't like at all, and I don't think the first guy is a WR1; the WR2 could be a better bet, but I'm not convinced yet.
MIA    Devante Parker    Kenny Stills
NYJ    Robby Anderson    Quincy Enunwa
JAC    Marqise Lee    Dede Westbrook

WR2s I won't pick:

NYG    Sterling Shepard
DAL    Michael Gallup
BUF    Zay Jones (unless science figures out how to do an arm transplant and give the kid some hands)


These are my targets:
130.5    Cameron Meredith NO (6) NO (What a talent, and with Breese throwing to him?)
132.7    Kelvin Benjamin BUF (11)  BUF (Benjamin did pretty well last season after transferring mid season, and now he has the off season. OK, most of his training seems to have gone into eating hotdogs, but I still think he can do it.)
134.5    Calvin Ridley ATL (8)  ATL (this is a first year talent I can believe in)
145.5    D.J. Moore CAR (4)  CAR (with some major question marks about Cams throwing)
179    Keelan Cole JAC (9)  JAC <- This is my steal of the draft. 

And some late bench warmers that may have a chance:

201    James Washington PIT (7)     PIT (Come on, it's Pittsburgh. You could do worse.)
225    Chester Rogers IND (9)     IND (...if Hilton turns out to be fine. Which we don't know yet.)

Keep shooting please. It's appreciated.

 

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5 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

I'd suggest you can do a lot worse for your fantasy team's RB2 than Collins, especially in standard. Don't want you to miss out

Appreciated, as are your other comments :)

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I have an eye on a few prospects that I hope fall late in the round.

 

1. Marquise Goodwin- He may not be a sleeper because it seems he's gaining some steam online. But I'm hoping Garcon truthers will push Goodwin down some spots.

2. Mike Williams- I'm banking on him receiving a good amount of targets and living up to his potential. I hope he and Keenan(if I get them) prove to be worth the duo investment. But I'm seeing more than a few people wanting to target Mike so that worries me greatly. Because it'd be my luck he gets picked up and has an amazing season.

3. Keelan Cole- He has breakout qualities I'm willing to pursue in later rounds or if the waivers.

4. Vance McDonald- I don't have any statistical or logical reason why I want him. Some guys I just have an urge to pick up. Cameron Brate was someone I had a good feeling about and he was Brate the Great for most of my fantasy season(Last year was my first year of playing Fantasy Football and my first year of really watching NFL. So if Brate was always great, I didn't know :D.)

 

If McDonald drops real low or goes undrafted, I have no problem picking him up and testing him out. 

 

Is Winston considered a sleeper at this point? I do think he's going to do better than expectations this year at least.

 

 

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Some QBs I'm looking at. I made a list of each QB and their main weapons, and selected a couple combinations that I like at their ADP (generally assuming 100+, we're talking about sleepers.) These are QBs I think they should have a good chance of getting decent numbers.

First off, not a sleeper (by my definition) but you've got to love Cousins and the range of weapons he has. Not a huge fan of Cousins, but this looks impressive:
Kirk Cousins (78.3) Adam Thielen / Stefon Diggs / Kyle Rudolph / Dalvin Cook

Then the guys I'm looking at to pick:
Jared Goff (102.3) Brandin Cooks / Robert Woods / (Gerald Everett) / Todd Gurley (Goff's ADP is a bit high though, he needs to drop a round)
Ben Roethlisberger (111.3) Antonio Brown / JuJu Smith-Schuster / Jesse James / Le'Veon Bell
Case Keenum (163) Demaryius Thomas / Emmanuel Sanders / (Jake Butt) / Royce Freeman
Mitch Trubisky (171) Allen Robinson II / Anthony Miller / Trey Burton / Cohen (as the pass-catching back)
Sam Bradford (217.5) Larry Fitzgerald / Christian Kirk / Ricky Seals-Jones / David Johnson

Assuming Gordon shows up at some point, you can also add Tyrod Taylor to that mix (Gordon, Landry, Njoku and a bunch of RBs).

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18 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

 

BUF    Zay Jones (unless science figures out how to do an arm transplant and give the kid some hands)


 

 

Science did figure this out, just saying. 

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On 8/5/2018 at 1:06 PM, Boudewijn said:

And WR sleepers:
 

Some guys I don't like at all, and I don't think the first guy is a WR1; the WR2 could be a better bet, but I'm not convinced yet.
MIA    Devante Parker    Kenny Stills
NYJ    Robby Anderson    Quincy Enunwa
JAC    Marqise Lee    Dede Westbrook

WR2s I won't pick:

NYG    Sterling Shepard
DAL    Michael Gallup
BUF    Zay Jones (unless science figures out how to do an arm transplant and give the kid some hands)


These are my targets:
130.5    Cameron Meredith NO (6) NO (What a talent, and with Breese throwing to him?)
132.7    Kelvin Benjamin BUF (11)  BUF (Benjamin did pretty well last season after transferring mid season, and now he has the off season. OK, most of his training seems to have gone into eating hotdogs, but I still think he can do it.)
134.5    Calvin Ridley ATL (8)  ATL (this is a first year talent I can believe in)
145.5    D.J. Moore CAR (4)  CAR (with some major question marks about Cams throwing)
179    Keelan Cole JAC (9)  JAC <- This is my steal of the draft. 

And some late bench warmers that may have a chance:

201    James Washington PIT (7)     PIT (Come on, it's Pittsburgh. You could do worse.)
225    Chester Rogers IND (9)     IND (...if Hilton turns out to be fine. Which we don't know yet.)

Keep shooting please. It's appreciated.

 

 

Zay had 158 catches as a senior. Pretty sure his hands are ok.

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9 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

Zay had 158 catches as a senior. Pretty sure his hands are ok.

Yet last year he seemed completely clueless and caught even less than Benjamin who came in during the year and had to learn an entire new playbook. 

 

What I was trying to express is that last year didn't make me want to invest in him this season.

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43 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Yet last year he seemed completely clueless and caught even less than Benjamin who came in during the year and had to learn an entire new playbook. 

 

What I was trying to express is that last year didn't make me want to invest in him this season.

 

No. You expressed that he has terrible hands. And you are wrong.

 

Zay could very well be out of the league in a few years, but it won't be because of his hands.

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31 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

No. You expressed that he has terrible hands. And you are wrong.

 

Zay could very well be out of the league in a few years, but it won't be because of his hands.

 

So what was up with his ridiculously low catch rate?  I'm not trying to be smart, it's a genuine question.

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6 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

So what was up with his ridiculously low catch rate?  I'm not trying to be smart, it's a genuine question.

He has some of the better hands in the league, so, not that. Was playing through a torn labrum, doesn't separate well, and was the primary wide receiver on the Bills. He's not good enough to be a WR1 on his team yet. I'll take the college sample of his hands pretty comfortably. 

Edited by miasma16

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34 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

So what was up with his ridiculously low catch rate?  I'm not trying to be smart, it's a genuine question.

 

He was a rookie. Lots of WRs don't come into their own right away.

 

I didn't watch enough of him last year to answer your question but there are lots of reasons for a low catch rate that aren't hands related.

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On 2018-08-10 at 9:57 AM, dmb3684 said:

 

No. You expressed that he has terrible hands. And you are wrong.

 

Zay could very well be out of the league in a few years, but it won't be because of his hands.

Didn't this dude Zay get into trouble this offseason where he was running around with his bare but cheeks all over a TMZ video?

Edited by gbill2004

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CJ Anderson, Crowell, Gio Bernard, Peyton Barber, Jamaal Williams, and Dion Lewis at their current ADP.  Especially in PPR leagues.

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53 minutes ago, kmac771 said:

What about Austin Ekeler? 

 

I like him, but the guys I listed can push for starters volume IMO.

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