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27 minutes ago, fakespike said:

How does Lockett “always seem like he’s on this list”?  He’s been in the nfl 3 seasons. Year 1 he was a rookie voted to pro bowl. Year 2 he suffered a knee injury that he made a quick offseason recovery from but had his play affected by it last year. This is his post hype sleeper year, none before. 

 

He's been hyped each of the past 2 seasons and done little with it. I like him this year, though.

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7 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

He's been hyped each of the past 2 seasons and done little with it. I like him this year, though.

 

Me too, and to add to a concept/context of a "post-hype" sleeper, when I was making a Baldwin argument the other day, I couldn't think of anyoen on the roster sans him and Marshall. Lockett's gotten to the point where you can legitimately forget he even exists. And he's gotten to the point where he's FINALLY in the best situation of his career. I won't put a big investment on it, but it's a flier I'd be willing to take over some of the more long-shot throw-outs above. 

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On 7/11/2018 at 10:56 AM, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Nobody is mentioning demarco murray? Currently undrafted, once he signs to a team could easily be a weekly starter

Looks like I jinxed this one

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On 7/9/2018 at 8:44 PM, Jaw1 said:

I'm not feeling the love but I think people are looking at his college tape and athletic metrics and think that with the offensive line upgrades the Bengals made, natural improvements of an offense that had a down year, getting back Eifert and Ross healthy and, Mixon going into his second year that things could click. I think people are overstating the departure of Hill too for what he has done in the past since his 2017 was pretty trash and Bernard was the one who took a lot of touches from Mixon. Still Mixon got over 200 touches in 14 games last year so he'll probably be looking at 250+ touches and if he plays closer to the talent he showed in college he could approach RB1 numbers. 

 

Personally I think the RB values in 3rd are inflated due to lack of talent and the question marks surrounding the rookies (with will likely change in preseason) so I'm going TE if one of top 3 are still around or WR. 

Mixon went in the 2nd in my dynasty startup.  

 

Maybe he’s the next Gurley.

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4 hours ago, Beerdown said:

Mixon went in the 2nd in my dynasty startup.  

 

Maybe he’s the next Gurley.

Mixon could be.  I don't love his team, his coach, or his O-line, though.

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I'll give you three from the bargain bin:

1. Kenneth Dixon
I do not believe in Alex Collins. I don't think Baltimore does either. No one believes in Buck Allen. Dixon should be the starter by week 4. Minimal cost for the guy who clearly has the most overall talent of the Ravens RBs.
2. Quincy Enumwa
Talented. The Jets actually have some other decent WRs, but Q is probably the most talented. Get him late as a nice bench WR, but if the Jets release Kearse, then pounce.
3. Donte Moncrief
Finally, the price is right for Donte, which is to say the price is virtually zero. He still is just 24 years old, and was not signed to a 'prove-it' deal, but rather Jax ponied up nearly 10 mil for him.
 

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12 hours ago, Beerdown said:

Mixon went in the 2nd in my dynasty startup.  

 

Maybe he’s the next Gurley.

Dynasty I'd say he gets a bump up and I could see him going in 2nd. He is certainly talented and has Gurley like upside (I think a lot of the hurdles are outside of Mixon's control i.e. o-line, coaching, defense, etc.) but given his floor which is kind of what we saw last year maybe worse if they decide to give Bernard a bigger role (I highly doubt they will) I think you could do better in 2nd round especially if its PPR. I have him rated near the top of the 3rd round though. 

Edited by Jaw1

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14 hours ago, andypro77 said:

I'll give you three from the bargain bin:

1. Kenneth Dixon
I do not believe in Alex Collins. I don't think Baltimore does either. No one believes in Buck Allen. Dixon should be the starter by week 4. Minimal cost for the guy who clearly has the most overall talent of the Ravens RBs.
2. Quincy Enumwa
Talented. The Jets actually have some other decent WRs, but Q is probably the most talented. Get him late as a nice bench WR, but if the Jets release Kearse, then pounce.
3. Donte Moncrief
Finally, the price is right for Donte, which is to say the price is virtually zero. He still is just 24 years old, and was not signed to a 'prove-it' deal, but rather Jax ponied up nearly 10 mil for him.
 

 

Any particular reason for believing that Baltimore doesn’t believe in Alex Collins?

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59 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Any particular reason for believing that Baltimore doesn’t believe in Alex Collins?

 

I said I don't 'believe' they do. Has to do with Harbaugh criticizing his fumbling and the nature of football teams counting draft capital. But it's probably my own bias, I just see Collins as a run-of-the-mill NFL back and I'm scooping up Dixon wherever I can, because I think he out-talents Collins in every way.

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14 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

 

I said I don't 'believe' they do. Has to do with Harbaugh criticizing his fumbling and the nature of football teams counting draft capital. But it's probably my own bias, I just see Collins as a run-of-the-mill NFL back and I'm scooping up Dixon wherever I can, because I think he out-talents Collins in every way.

Curious why you see Dixon as so talented?  

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1 hour ago, andypro77 said:

 

I said I don't 'believe' they do. Has to do with Harbaugh criticizing his fumbling and the nature of football teams counting draft capital. But it's probably my own bias, I just see Collins as a run-of-the-mill NFL back and I'm scooping up Dixon wherever I can, because I think he out-talents Collins in every way.

 

1 hour ago, Beerdown said:

Curious why you see Dixon as so talented?  

 

I mean you quoted believe but I used that word or a form of it twice in my own post, but the crux of what I was getting at is exactly what you ended up saying: do YOU not think they believe in him because YOU don't believe in him or is there a reason that comes from the team? Because I do think there's a difference especially in application. 

 

Seems to be like this stems more from your own, as I highlighted and you yourself said, belief that Alex Collins is run-of-the-mill. I do not, as well addressed in the Collins thread, believe that. And I do not believe that Baltimore believes that. I believe that they believe one of the best paths for offensive success this year is to run thru Collins. And I also don't understand what Dixon has done between two injuries and a suspension and limited time on an NFL field after coming out of LA Tech, a small program that have so many people thinking he's more talented than Alex Collins, a back who had 4.6 YPC last year with an inferior interior line.

 

I don't get the appeal of Dixon or the lack of appeal with Collins. Modern Football Concepts run amuck IMO. Not to be the old man, but I feel like we may have gone a little too far when evaluating the pass catching running back at times-- in such a way that we forget that there is a difference between the way some players run and that that can have as big of a difference as if they catch passes or not. Collins to me is flat out more talented than Dixon. I don't care if Collins doesn't catch passes and Dixon does. One is a vastly superior Runner. One is a vastly superior talent as a runner. I'm not favoring Dixon just because he has a different dimension. 

 

And just FWIW, after 10/1, meaning for his final 187 Carries last year, Collins did not lose a fumble. It's definitely a big problem, depending on how much it surfaces. I think he can keep the surfacing down. 

 

And again, just for volume projections, Collins wasn't really "overworked" or "bellcowed" last year, but he had 132 Carries in the last 8 games. I have Collins looking at something like 264/1200+/7-9 this year, personally. 

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6 hours ago, taobball said:

 One is a vastly superior Runner. One is a vastly superior talent as a runner. I'm not favoring Dixon just because he has a different dimension. 

I'm not sure how you can know that. Dixon has all of 88 carries in his career. Collins is at 4.5 and Dixon at 4.3 career-wise.

6 hours ago, taobball said:

And again, just for volume projections, Collins wasn't really "overworked" or "bellcowed" last year, but he had 132 Carries in the last 8 games. I have Collins looking at something like 264/1200+/7-9 this year, personally. 

Those 132 carries were at 3.75 yards per carry. He had some good games and runs early on, but he was exposed as the season went on. I didn't realize that he didn't fumble during that time, but both his college and pro career numbers have him at more than 1 per 50.

 

During his extended usage time, he only caught 10 of 18 targets, and he was ranked by PFF as bottom ten in pass protection, which was also noted on his draft profile.

 

He doesn't have stand out metrics athletically for the position. He's not good in pass protection, he's not good catching the football, and his one strength, running the football, netted only 3.75 ypc over his last 132 carries.

 

The NFL landscape is littered with decent enough RBs who got an opportunity and, because they are talented enough to be an NFL RB, made a decent season out of it. But there's plenty of those who disappeared just as quickly as they came.

 

And while I agree that we tend to overstate the importance of catching passes, we have to realize that's the way the NFL is going. Even the perpetually mediocre-at-best Buck Allen was within 10 points of Collins' breakout season in PPR last year.
 

A big part of the battle in fantasy football drafting is deciding whether what we saw last is truth, or if it's a mirage that will cost us draft capital. DeAndre Hopkins is easy. Guys like Robby Anderson, Robert Woods, Kenyon Drake, and Collins are a bit harder - because we've all fallen for guys like this and picked them where there ADP said we should and ended up getting burnt.

 

And remember, the Collins/Dixon discussion doesn't happen in a vacuum. According to FFC, even in PPR Collins is going 9-10 rounds ahead of Dixon. Even if there's a 25% chance that I'm right, then Dixon is the percentage play over Collins.

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56 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

I'm not sure how you can know that. Dixon has all of 88 carries in his career. Collins is at 4.5 and Dixon at 4.3 career-wise.

Those 132 carries were at 3.75 yards per carry. He had some good games and runs early on, but he was exposed as the season went on. I didn't realize that he didn't fumble during that time, but both his college and pro career numbers have him at more than 1 per 50.

 

 

Definitively? I really can't. But I've seen both run the ball. Saying Collins is a better runner isn't really a knock on Dixon so much as it is heaping more admiration into what was, IMO, an incredible and underrated 2017. 

 

Quote

 

During his extended usage time, he only caught 10 of 18 targets, and he was ranked by PFF as bottom ten in pass protection, which was also noted on his draft profile.

 

He doesn't have stand out metrics athletically for the position. He's not good in pass protection, he's not good catching the football, and his one strength, running the football, netted only 3.75 ypc over his last 132 carries.

 

The NFL landscape is littered with decent enough RBs who got an opportunity and, because they are talented enough to be an NFL RB, made a decent season out of it. But there's plenty of those who disappeared just as quickly as they came.

 

And while I agree that we tend to overstate the importance of catching passes, we have to realize that's the way the NFL is going. Even the perpetually mediocre-at-best Buck Allen was within 10 points of Collins' breakout season in PPR last year.
 

A big part of the battle in fantasy football drafting is deciding whether what we saw last is truth, or if it's a mirage that will cost us draft capital. DeAndre Hopkins is easy. Guys like Robby Anderson, Robert Woods, Kenyon Drake, and Collins are a bit harder - because we've all fallen for guys like this and picked them where there ADP said we should and ended up getting burnt.

 

 

Sure. Personally, I believe that there's a difference between showing some traits and others. Collins to me didn't look like a good back, he looked like one of the best downhill runners in the sport. He lost two starting Guards before he was off teh practice squad. No one else could run through that line last year. But Collins did-- and he excelled.

 

You bring up PFF, but PFF loves Collins. They may knock attributes of his game sure, but they ranked him as the 101st best player in the entire NFL last season. The majority of backs in that 101 (Gurley, Kamara, Hunt, and Bell) are going in the first round. They also majorly contribute in passing downs, like fellow 101 Dion Lewis. Collins doesn't as much, but if he dominates on the ground and through the trenches, which I believe he will, than 250+ Carries at a 4.5+ YPC and a lot of Red Zone attempts is what I would project.

Quote

And remember, the Collins/Dixon discussion doesn't happen in a vacuum. According to FFC, even in PPR Collins is going 9-10 rounds ahead of Dixon. Even if there's a 25% chance that I'm right, then Dixon is the percentage play over Collins.

 

I mean of course it's not a vacuum. One RB is the starter, excelled last year, and from all indications I've seen is the easy favorite of the Coaching Staff, at least from anyone who knows anything about the Ravens. One RB is injury prone, had a suspension, and was an FCS pick at draft time. But for some reason we're hyped about him.

 

Calling it the "percentage play" is just based on opinions and pointless. Is Bell's back-up the percentage play because he's going so much later? Of course not. Personally I see the avenue for Collins to being a big, fantasy stud to be evident enough that he should be drafted far before the late-4th/5th. I think Collins is more likely to win me a league and carry my RB1 slot than Dixon. So no, I don't agree with you that it's the "percentage play." I like Dixon. I like drafting both. One is vastly superior in pretty much every way I evaluate a player both in terms of personal talent and in the way I believe the organization sees that talent.

 

I have no problem taking a shot on Dixon. Personally, most people who are high on Dixon, IMO, are high on Dixon because they don't believe Collins was that good last year. This is an opinion, but I believe that that is an inaccurate opinion, regardless of what you think happens this year. I think Collins was one of the best downhill runners, between the tackle, and short yardage backs we got to witness in the NFL last year. I think his spot on the roster is very guaranteed.

 

But again, this whole debate started more-or-less on a simple question: if you believe that Collins isn't talented, and that Dixon is the preferred back... more power to you. I was just confused/in disagreement with the idea that the Ravens believe in Dixon or want Dixon more-so than Collins. I have heard that a lot this offseason. Never from anyone that has anything to do with the Ravens. I have spent significant time looking through Beat Reporters Depth Charts. They have Collins as the clear-cut #1. I have talked to friends from the area. They believe Collins is a borderline first round talent in Fantasy Football. Personally, I believe that Collins and pouding the rock with Collins is considered by the Ravens to be the "A-Plan" for beating down and wearing out teams in 2018. 

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On 7/19/2018 at 10:59 AM, andypro77 said:

I'll give you three from the bargain bin:

1. Kenneth Dixon
I do not believe in Alex Collins. I don't think Baltimore does either. No one believes in Buck Allen. Dixon should be the starter by week 4. Minimal cost for the guy who clearly has the most overall talent of the Ravens RBs.
 

 

9 hours ago, andypro77 said:

 

I said I don't 'believe' they do. Has to do with Harbaugh criticizing his fumbling and the nature of football teams counting draft capital. But it's probably my own bias, I just see Collins as a run-of-the-mill NFL back and I'm scooping up Dixon wherever I can, because I think he out-talents Collins in every way.

 

1 hour ago, andypro77 said:

 

The NFL landscape is littered with decent enough RBs who got an opportunity and, because they are talented enough to be an NFL RB, made a decent season out of it. But there's plenty of those who disappeared just as quickly as they came.

 

 

At the end of the day this is the long and short of my point here. If you believe these things, then of course you won't like Collins. But it isn't more complex than these things. People like to talk to me about Collins and they like to use Dixon, or this, or that, or the other thing, to defend why they dont' like him... and plenty will argue it's not because of Collins. My point is just that it is. If you believe Collins was as talented and as proficient last year as I do, then we aren't having this conversation.

 

I do not believe these statements are accurate portrayals of the talent I saw. Could be wrong. But that's my take. And these three statements, even in their proper context, are the crux of this whole argument. Not everything else said. 

 

EDIT: And I also feel it's important to note that, at least my interpretation of things, is that the Ravens are closer to my evaluation than the evaluation that "Collins isn't talented" and want to continue to see what they have. 

Edited by taobball

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16 minutes ago, taobball said:

Calling it the "percentage play" is just based on opinions and pointless. Is Bell's back-up the percentage play because he's going so much later?

Well, it's not pointless, and it's probably partially based on my opinions and partially based on math.

And comparing him to Bell? That's a bit of a stretch. It seems you're suggesting that Bell's backup and Collin's backup are about the same because they're both shoo-ins to be the unquestioned feature back all season (barring injury), and both their backups are useless unless there's an injury.
Additionally, Bell's backup wouldn't be the 3rd down back, and there's a good chance that Dixon will be.
Would you have equated Ty Mongomery's backup with Bell's last season? Montgomery was going even slightly higher than Collins is now. You certainly shouldn't have, because there was a much greater chance of Montgomery being replaced than Bell. Same with Collins this year.

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Just now, andypro77 said:

Well, it's not pointless, and it's probably partially based on my opinions and partially based on math.

And comparing him to Bell? That's a bit of a stretch. It seems you're suggesting that Bell's backup and Collin's backup are about the same because they're both shoo-ins to be the unquestioned feature back all season (barring injury), and both their backups are useless unless there's an injury.
Additionally, Bell's backup wouldn't be the 3rd down back, and there's a good chance that Dixon will be.
Would you have equated Ty Mongomery's backup with Bell's last season? Montgomery was going even slightly higher than Collins is now. You certainly shouldn't have, because there was a much greater chance of Montgomery being replaced than Bell. Same with Collins this year.

 

I mean, the direct point was that you called it the "percentage play," which is fairly definitive, and my point was that that opinion is based on how you perceive the talent particularly of the highly drafted player... but really if you're just going to focus on one clear hyperbole in the entire argument... then we best not even continue it. I think it's pretty clear what I was trying to get at, personally. 

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21 minutes ago, taobball said:

or this, or that, or the other thing, to defend why they dont' like him

I used his 2nd half 3.75 ypc, his not being a good pass catcher, and his bottom 10 ranking in pass protection, and his past fumbling issues; not 'this, or that, or the other thing'. I would rate them as very important things, as would most who try to assess potential RB touches.

 

As for it being a percentage play, I believe my math holds. If I ignore Collins when he comes up, I just take Cooper, Demaryius, Ertz, Rodgers, etc who are going about the same time. For me to lose my non-bet on Collins, the player I select has to perform below expectations while Collins meets them (throwing out injuries, or course). But for you to win your bet, he has to keep that job most of the year (you're using a late 3rd/early 4th here) in an era of disposable RBs, despite the fact that he wasn't highly drafted, was let go by a RB-needy team, had a mediocre YPC in the 2nd half, can't catch the ball, had past fumbling issues, and is bad in pass pro.

And right now, all I have to do to win my bet on Dixon is if he stays healthy and plays a decent amount and catches some balls, because of how low he's going now.

By the way, I don't hate Collins, I actually like him a lot. I thought he looked pretty cool at Arkansas too. I think he's a tough football player and I think he deserves some of the praise he's getting now. But, I just look at all the potential negatives and I just don't see it as a wise move where he's being drafted.

 

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11 minutes ago, taobball said:

the direct point was that you called it the "percentage play," which is fairly definitive

I think it's the opposite of definitive. I think we err when we think we can know with a high degree of certainty what's going to happen in a fantasy football season.

 

Again, let's say there's an 75% that you're right and Collins goes for 1200 yards and 8-10 TDs. If that's so, then you probably 'won' that draft spot by a little bit, not not much more. You expect that type of production for a late 3rd - maybe not 1200/10, but somewhere around there. And again, you could have take DT and he gets you 80/1000/8 from that spot as well.

But if I'm right about Dixon, then I've won huge getting him in the 13th round. Even if Collins totes the rock on most 1st/2nd downs, I can still get a pretty decent year out of Dixon as the 3rd down/COP back.

 

I think it's very disputable whether or not you or I are right about Collins. That could be an endless debate and you could very well be right. But I don't think it's disputable that Dixon is a much better percentage play, even if I end up being wrong. If someone is rolling a die and they offer me to choose the numbers 1-4 or 5-6, the percentage play is to choose 1-4. It was the right call EVEN IF a 5 is rolled. That's sort of how I view fantasy football drafting.

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38 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

I think it's the opposite of definitive. I think we err when we think we can know with a high degree of certainty what's going to happen in a fantasy football season.

 

Again, let's say there's an 75% that you're right and Collins goes for 1200 yards and 8-10 TDs. If that's so, then you probably 'won' that draft spot by a little bit, not not much more. You expect that type of production for a late 3rd - maybe not 1200/10, but somewhere around there. And again, you could have take DT and he gets you 80/1000/8 from that spot as well.

But if I'm right about Dixon, then I've won huge getting him in the 13th round. Even if Collins totes the rock on most 1st/2nd downs, I can still get a pretty decent year out of Dixon as the 3rd down/COP back.

 

I think it's very disputable whether or not you or I are right about Collins. That could be an endless debate and you could very well be right. But I don't think it's disputable that Dixon is a much better percentage play, even if I end up being wrong. If someone is rolling a die and they offer me to choose the numbers 1-4 or 5-6, the percentage play is to choose 1-4. It was the right call EVEN IF a 5 is rolled. That's sort of how I view fantasy football drafting.

 

You could use the same logic with any pair of players though, is part of what Tao is trying to say, I think.  Dixon could be "better value" in the 13th than Collins going earlier, but the same is true for any later round pick.  And I'm not sure I follow your dice analogy.  How is Dixon in the 13th round equivalent to picking numbers 1-4 on a dice?  If anything, it's more like someone saying you can pay $50 for numbers 1-4, or $5 for numbers 5-6.  You're going to pay $5 for 5-6, because even though it's less likely to be rolled, the cost is a lot less.

 

And at the end of the day fantasy sports isn't like rolling a dice.  You can't trade your 1st round pick for ten 13th rounders (well I don't think you can anyways), so you have to pick players in each round that you think will give you the best chance to win.  It's not so much about comparing the value of Collins in the 4th vs. Dixon in the 13th - it's more like is Collins a better value in the 4th than RB's like Guice and Ajayi and Penny getting picked around him, and is Dixon the highest value 13th round pick you can make compared to who is left on the board?  When you have to make a 4th round pick and a 13th round pick, trying to compare the two is a little apples to oranges.

 

If you really want the "percentage play", draft both Collins in the 4th and Dixon in the 13th.  Then you've essentially bought up the whole backfield and might have an RB2 or better for a fairly low price.

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1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

How is Dixon in the 13th round equivalent to picking numbers 1-4 on a dice?

You misunderstand. The dice analogy was not on a particular player, but rather determining the proper course of action. My point was the proper course of action in the scenario is to choose 1-4 instead of 5-6. And then, even if a 5 or 6 is rolled, the proper course of action beforehand was still to choose 1-4.

 

And I think the proper course of action right now is Dixon 10 rounds later than the late 3rd Collins. Now, if by the time the season starts Collins is going in the 5th and Dixon is going in the 8th, then I'd reevaluate what the proper course of action is.

1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

If you really want the "percentage play", draft both Collins in the 4th and Dixon in the 13th.  Then you've essentially bought up the whole backfield and might have an RB2 or better for a fairly low price.

Yes, if you MUST have Collins, that would be a smart play. The thing is, I don't see Collins as anywhere near as safe a bet for touches as those going around him late 3rd/early 4th.

 

I guess projected touches to me would equal the raw number of the potential team RB touches and that particular RB's share of those touches, PLUS the likelihood that said RB is replaced. I don't think Collins gets near a high enough percentage of Baltimore's touches because he's not good on 3rd downs, and I think he's got a higher than tolerable chance of being totally replaced than your average late 3rd/early 4th round pick. Not only that, but even if he does perform ok, I believe Dixon will not be just a 3rd down back, but will also mix in on early downs as well, lowering even further Collins' potential for touches.

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1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

You could use the same logic with any pair of players though, is part of what Tao is trying to say, I think.  Dixon could be "better value" in the 13th than Collins going earlier, but the same is true for any later round pick.

I don't think so. I don't think Bell or Gurley's backups are better value (again, this is how it stands right now). Their backups have almost no value because of the enormous expected touch share each have. I think, for reasons I've already explained, that Collins' expected touch share is lower than you'd expect from a pick that high.

 

Howard/Cohen might be a good comp here. Regardless of how you feel about those two, you can make a case right now whether one or the other is a better value. If Howard were going mid-1st and Cohen was going in the 13th, Cohen would be the better value. With Howard going early 3rd right now and Cohen going early 6th, I'd give the 'value' edge to Howard here. PPR closes that gap.

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1 hour ago, Farfromhome said:

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2017/12/24/16815976/seattle-seahawks-alex-collins-released-fumbles-pete-carroll-baltimore-ravens

 

 

Stats say the biggest concern with Collins isn't his production or talent.... It's his fumbles.... Bad thing to have trouble with and quickest way to lose opportunities... Imo

Everyone already knew/knows this.  It was his biggest issue coming out of college.  But he began working on how he holds the ball last year, and that appeared to have helped.  He only lost two fumbles on 212 carries, and they were early on in weeks 2 and 4.

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Agreed...the job is securely his... The fumble issue is the only reason I coud see him losing significant carries to dixon....I will say... In my opinion.... I think dixon is a better rb when I watch game clips

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