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35 minutes ago, wjpvlc said:

I'll say Mike Williams and Kenny Stills.

 

When was Stills ever hyped?

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5 hours ago, andypro77 said:

I think it's the opposite of definitive. I think we err when we think we can know with a high degree of certainty what's going to happen in a fantasy football season.

 

Again, let's say there's an 75% that you're right and Collins goes for 1200 yards and 8-10 TDs. If that's so, then you probably 'won' that draft spot by a little bit, not not much more. You expect that type of production for a late 3rd - maybe not 1200/10, but somewhere around there. And again, you could have take DT and he gets you 80/1000/8 from that spot as well.

But if I'm right about Dixon, then I've won huge getting him in the 13th round. Even if Collins totes the rock on most 1st/2nd downs, I can still get a pretty decent year out of Dixon as the 3rd down/COP back.

 

I think it's very disputable whether or not you or I are right about Collins. That could be an endless debate and you could very well be right. But I don't think it's disputable that Dixon is a much better percentage play, even if I end up being wrong. If someone is rolling a die and they offer me to choose the numbers 1-4 or 5-6, the percentage play is to choose 1-4. It was the right call EVEN IF a 5 is rolled. That's sort of how I view fantasy football drafting.

 

This logic is THICK. But sifting through a lot of it, at the end of the day the point is that what you're essentially saying is that late round picks have a greater chance of producing a high rate of value-- which is true. LeVeon Bell and Todd Gurley cannot return much on their investment in this logic. That's not comparing any player here to one of them. That's just a fact. All your logic is really saying is that late round picks panning out can do more for fantasy teams than early picks... which is true based on replacement. That doesn't make one player a better investment than the other. The main point is that how you view Dixon and how you view Collins is of bigger import here. 

 

4 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

You could use the same logic with any pair of players though, is part of what Tao is trying to say, I think.  Dixon could be "better value" in the 13th than Collins going earlier, but the same is true for any later round pick.  And I'm not sure I follow your dice analogy.  How is Dixon in the 13th round equivalent to picking numbers 1-4 on a dice?  If anything, it's more like someone saying you can pay $50 for numbers 1-4, or $5 for numbers 5-6.  You're going to pay $5 for 5-6, because even though it's less likely to be rolled, the cost is a lot less.

 

And at the end of the day fantasy sports isn't like rolling a dice.  You can't trade your 1st round pick for ten 13th rounders (well I don't think you can anyways), so you have to pick players in each round that you think will give you the best chance to win.  It's not so much about comparing the value of Collins in the 4th vs. Dixon in the 13th - it's more like is Collins a better value in the 4th than RB's like Guice and Ajayi and Penny getting picked around him, and is Dixon the highest value 13th round pick you can make compared to who is left on the board?  When you have to make a 4th round pick and a 13th round pick, trying to compare the two is a little apples to oranges.

 

If you really want the "percentage play", draft both Collins in the 4th and Dixon in the 13th.  Then you've essentially bought up the whole backfield and might have an RB2 or better for a fairly low price.

 

Exactly on all these. Giovani Bernard is a better chance at producing value than Mixon based on ADP in the sense that he's being drafted later. But I like Mixon way better, so it takes it out. I feel better about Dixon as a 3-down back than Bernard, but I feel similarly about my opinions on Collins and Mixon maintaining the role. So since I believe in Collins so much, I think I'd rather have Collins at his ADP of mid-late 4th than Dixon. In auction I'd rather invest more money in Collins than less money in Dixon. 

 

But also like the last point says, I like getting both. 

 

3 hours ago, andypro77 said:

You misunderstand. The dice analogy was not on a particular player, but rather determining the proper course of action. My point was the proper course of action in the scenario is to choose 1-4 instead of 5-6. And then, even if a 5 or 6 is rolled, the proper course of action beforehand was still to choose 1-4.

 

And I think the proper course of action right now is Dixon 10 rounds later than the late 3rd Collins. Now, if by the time the season starts Collins is going in the 5th and Dixon is going in the 8th, then I'd reevaluate what the proper course of action is.

Yes, if you MUST have Collins, that would be a smart play. The thing is, I don't see Collins as anywhere near as safe a bet for touches as those going around him late 3rd/early 4th.

 

I guess projected touches to me would equal the raw number of the potential team RB touches and that particular RB's share of those touches, PLUS the likelihood that said RB is replaced. I don't think Collins gets near a high enough percentage of Baltimore's touches because he's not good on 3rd downs, and I think he's got a higher than tolerable chance of being totally replaced than your average late 3rd/early 4th round pick. Not only that, but even if he does perform ok, I believe Dixon will not be just a 3rd down back, but will also mix in on early downs as well, lowering even further Collins' potential for touches.

 

Okay but these things are you opinion. They don't have to do with the draft price so much as they have to do with the differendce in how we see the situation, Dixon, and Collins. That's been my point from the very beginning. You believe he has a higher than tolerable chance of being replaced. I think he has a better chance of having a valuable role than the backs being placed aroudn him. I believe he is as-if-not-more talented than the backs aroudn him. I believe he could be Marshawn Lynch-esque this season. And I do not believe Dixon gets early down work. Again, these are your and my opinions. 

 

But the point is that these opinions define the value alongside the round. You can't just say ones a better value based on the round. If you saw Dixon/Collins closer to Bernard/Mixon, you wouldn't feel the same way. I see Collins/Dixon as closer to Mixon/Bernard, persoanlly, in terms of where I see the roles.

 

Fumbles can cause him to lose the job. He was above tolerable last year in this regard though. He needs to actually fumble to lose the job. I believe he can play and not fumble. We'll see how it goes. 

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On 7/13/2018 at 10:31 AM, wideopen21 said:

 

Mariota will top my list. Most people have him ranked in the 18-22 range. Since I never draft/bid on elite QBs, I am likely going to lock up Mariota as my QB1 in a couple of leagues. 

 

Edit to note that Mariota was ranked in the top 5-7 by many "experts" last year. I stayed far away from him then, but now he will be a steal. 

 

My biggest post hype sleeper so far as i’m just really getting back into football mode. Detailed more in his season outlook but If I can’t get the stack of A-Rod and Davante Adams. Mariota/Mahones and Corey Davis will be my stack of choice as I stockpile talent everywhere else in Auction. One year removed from a QB12 finish. He was 4 points behind QB8 Tyrod Taylor and 38 points behind QB5 Kirk Cousins. I’m buying. 

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Collins v. Dixon is an interesting discussion, but Javorious "Buck" Allen has somehow kept himself in the mix for the last two seasons, despite quite a bit of competition.

 

I like Mariota to bounce back.  Health is a big factor but coaching even more so.

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Terrelle Pryor I will be picking up iduring the last round in my ROTO league, as well as the two 14-team leagues I am in.

 

Other post-hype:

A. Cooper

M. Mack

D. Westbrook

M. Williams

K. Dixon

J. Ross

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I’m keeping a close eye on Jeremy Hill. He’s basically going undrafted. He has a fighting chance at the early down work in New England. Ignoring last year, he’s excellent at scoring TD’s with at least 9 for three straight seasons. He’s moving to maybe the best offense in the league. He’s still young (25). The team figures to run more this year.

 

 I’ll pass on Michel at his price. Burkhead is probably the most overdrafted RB on the board in my opinion as he has no track record whatsoever of handling a high touch count for as long as a month. He also might be playing as much in the slot as RB with New England’s receiver depth looking low. Hill’s floor is surely low and he might not even make the team (not a special teams guy) but I think his TD upside is pretty substantial. 

 

 

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Mike Williams should take the WR2 spot in LA and is being severely underdrafted. He’s going very early (90.7) in high stakes money leagues for good reason. Could be a league winning pick in deep lineup leagues.

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18 hours ago, Div1726 said:

I’m keeping a close eye on Jeremy Hill. He’s basically going undrafted. He has a fighting chance at the early down work in New England. Ignoring last year, he’s excellent at scoring TD’s with at least 9 for three straight seasons. He’s moving to maybe the best offense in the league. He’s still young (25). The team figures to run more this year.

 

 I’ll pass on Michel at his price. Burkhead is probably the most overdrafted RB on the board in my opinion as he has no track record whatsoever of handling a high touch count for as long as a month. He also might be playing as much in the slot as RB with New England’s receiver depth looking low. Hill’s floor is surely low and he might not even make the team (not a special teams guy) but I think his TD upside is pretty substantial. 

 

 

This post reminds me that James White is a nice PPR sleeper. 

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18 hours ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

i'm liking a bunch of 2nd/3rd wrs that are projected to lineup opposite star wr1's:

- john ross

- g. allison

- tre'quan smith 

- golladay

-  p. richardson

Wait, what do you think the Saints' WR depth chart is going to look like?

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Albert Wilson. I could see him getting ~65 receptions which would make him fantasy relevant in PPR. He's currently going undrafted.

 

Rishard Matthews is going in the 12th round. Definitely some sleeper potential there as well.

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Wait, what do you think the Saints' WR depth chart is going to look like?

Could very well see Smith winning the 3rd receiver job over Meredith.

Ted Ginn is going to be what he always is - deep play specialist.

Smith on the opposite side of Thomas could be very good for PPR. 

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1 hour ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

Could very well see Smith winning the 3rd receiver job over Meredith.

Ted Ginn is going to be what he always is - deep play specialist.

Smith on the opposite side of Thomas could be very good for PPR. 

I would even keep an eye on Ben Watson.  Old dude, but I believe he was the leading receiver for Baltimore last year (how?).

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36 minutes ago, dogfightgiggle said:

I would even keep an eye on Ben Watson.  Old dude, but I believe he was the leading receiver for Baltimore last year (how?).

 

Has a good connection with Brees. I really like Meredith. I could definitely see the saints put him at WR2 and get a lot of redzone looks.big body guy. Hes making some crazy plays in practice.

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On 7/29/2018 at 12:59 PM, dogfightgiggle said:

I would even keep an eye on Ben Watson.  Old dude, but I believe he was the leading receiver for Baltimore last year (how?).

I like Watson as a last round TE in redraft if you plan on assimilating to streaming the position if it doesn't look well for him after the first couple of weeks. I think of Watson more of a TD or bust type of guy; could be wrong. 

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On 7/28/2018 at 12:48 PM, CharlieWhitehurst said:

i'm liking a bunch of 2nd/3rd wrs that are projected to lineup opposite star wr1's:

- john ross

- g. allison

- tre'quan smith 

- golladay

-  p. richardson

 

What star WR1 is Richardson lining up with?  

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On 7/29/2018 at 10:37 AM, CABLE87 said:

 

Has a good connection with Brees. I really like Meredith. I could definitely see the saints put him at WR2 and get a lot of redzone looks.big body guy. Hes making some crazy plays in practice.

 

Yeah I really hope Meredith comes back strong and can stay healthy.  Great QB, great WR on the other side, great running game.  I want him on a lot of my teams this year.

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2 minutes ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

I honestly should had fixed this. I meant Jaron Brown. 

 

Yeah I would say his upgrade at QB and offense as a whole would be a bigger upside for me than the WR he lines up opposite.  Not like he wasn't lining up opposite a future HoFer in Arizona.  Gonna be too much of a guessing game for me outside of Baldwin.

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I think Marquise Goodwin is going to be the most fantasy relevant WR on the 49ers and you can get him 2 rounds later than Garcon right now.

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