The 7th Beatles

Duke Johnson 2018 Outlook

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I was hoping he wouldn't re-sign with Cleveland. Awesome player, terrible situation.

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I'm not sure why people are down on Duke after the extension. Cleveland's offense has some firepower and with Mayfield under center there is no doubt in my mind that they are on the upswing. Duke is a really good pass catching back and has proved it year after year, he has excellent hands. He has zero injury history and still relatively young. Trust me, you want this guy in your PPR dynasty & redraft leagues, where he is currently being drafted at is a steal.

Edited by metalmat

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1 hour ago, metalmat said:

I'm not sure why people are down on Duke after the extension. Cleveland's offense has some firepower and with Mayfield under center there is no doubt in my mind that they are on the upswing. Duke is a really good pass catching back and has proved it year after year, he has excellent hands. He has zero injury history and still relatively young. Trust me, you want this guy in your PPR dynasty & redraft leagues, where he is currently being drafted at is a steal.

 

Not sure how you would draft with confidence when Dorsey stated he likes a rbbc system and both Hyde and Chubb can catch the ball as well as other pass catchers on the offense landry, Gordon,coleman njoku. I smell a backfield like philly had last season, productive but you never knew who was getting the ball when

Personally I don't think there are enough targets to go around to make Duke fantasy relevant on a weekly predictable basis. 

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6 hours ago, metalmat said:

I'm not sure why people are down on Duke after the extension. Cleveland's offense has some firepower and with Mayfield under center there is no doubt in my mind that they are on the upswing. Duke is a really good pass catching back and has proved it year after year, he has excellent hands. He has zero injury history and still relatively young. Trust me, you want this guy in your PPR dynasty & redraft leagues, where he is currently being drafted at is a steal.

 

Too many mouths to feed, not enough volume. Hue Jackson is still HC.

 

You've got Hyde, Chubb, Gordon, Landry, Callaway, Njoku, Duke... barring a bunch of injuries to other skill position players, Duke's opportunity share is going to be unpredictable at best and almost non-existent at worst.

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This writer thinks Duke's role will only get bigger with Todd Haley becoming offensive coordinator:

 

Quote

Offensive coaches can get a lot out of a guy like Johnson by lining him up all over the field and using him in certain personnel packages that make it hard for defenses when subbing players in and out. That didn’t happen nearly enough in Cleveland in 2017 after early in the season, when Johnson was used primarily as a receiver and hardly received any snaps as a running back, which made it easier for opponents when matching personnel.

 

That should change in 2018 with Todd Haley joining the staff. Haley’s play-calling has drawn plenty of criticism over the years, but there is no denying that, during in his time in Pittsburgh, he used Le’Veon Bell perfectly. Go back to the Steelers’ final game of the season, and you’ll see Bell lining up all over the field.

 

Expect Haley to use Johnson in a similar fashion. The 24-year-old won’t get half the carries Bell did, but he should be on the field for as many snaps. That would mean playing him with other running backs, which did not happen often in 2017. Per NFLGSIS, Johnson shared the field with lead back Isaiah Crowell just 58 times last season, or about 5% of the snaps. That number should double this season.

 

If you are a defensive coordinator and you see the Browns come out with two backs (Johnson and Hyde), two receivers (Josh Gordon and Jarvis Landry) and a tight end like David Njoku, how do you answer? Are you playing base defense against a two back-set? Then you’re ensuring the Browns get Johnson or Njoku matched up with a helpless linebacker, with the other getting a strong safety. Are you going nickel? Then you’re sacrificing strength in the box against a bruising runner in Hyde and one of the best interior lines in football. Now throw in the threat of Tyrod Taylor pulling the ball on a read option, and you really have problems. This is a defensive coordinators worst nightmare…

 

brownsvsbase1.png?w=1000&h=552

 

On paper, the Browns offense is downright scary. But in order for the unit to reach its full potential, Johnson must be a major cog, whether that means running the ball or creating mismatches as a receiver. That’s what they’re paying him to do, after all.

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/06/nfl-browns-duke-johnson-contract-extension

 

Whether it actually plays out this way remains to be seen, but why else would the Browns extend Duke in the first place?

 

Edited by predator_05

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looks great for real world NFL but for fantasy i'm not sure i want to put my money  on Duke this year. Too many ways to distribute the ball which like the defensive coordinator must feel makes week to week predictability a nightmare

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10 hours ago, dashoe said:

looks great for real world NFL but for fantasy i'm not sure i want to put my money  on Duke this year. Too many ways to distribute the ball which like the defensive coordinator must feel makes week to week predictability a nightmare

Pretty crazy that we can say this about the CLE offense for a change. 

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In a $200 league, I have him for $10 which I think is probably a value, maybe he goes for $15-20 where our league has RB inflation - but that is based off last years numbers my thought it to pass on him, I mean I think his catches can be near where he was, maybe a little less, but I dont see those games where he gets 6-7-9 carries from the backfield.  

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Current ADP is RB47.

 

He finished RB11 last year.  

82/348/4 rushing

74/693/3 receiving

 

Tyrod loves throwing to RBs.

Haley loves throwing to RBs.

 

WTF is the deal with his ADP?  Is everyone stupid?

Efing Doug Martin is being picked before him at the end of the 10th round?

WTF?  Seriously guys!  WTF!

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Duke’s gonna have a role obviously ... between the signing of Hyde, drafting of Chubb, adding Landry + Gordon (?) I just don’t see how Duke gets the volume he did last year when they had nobody else worth throwing to 

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12 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Duke’s gonna have a role obviously ... between the signing of Hyde, drafting of Chubb, adding Landry + Gordon (?) I just don’t see how Duke gets the volume he did last year when they had nobody else worth throwing to 

Yeah I agree that this is the only reservation I have this year with Duke.  He's obviously a very talented back who excels at catching passes.  However, there is much more competition for RB touches this year, and the WR corp looks a lot stronger than last year.  Plus, the Browns aren't going to be Superbowl champs, but they SHOULD be a lot better than last year's abomination.  Perhaps they're actually competitive in more games, and they don't need to throw it around as much.  

 

However, Chubb looked un-inspiring last week (albeit only 1 week of PS football), Hyde historically gets hurt (last season was first full 16), and Gordon isn't even with the team right now.  

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7 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Duke’s gonna have a role obviously ... between the signing of Hyde, drafting of Chubb, adding Landry + Gordon (?) I just don’t see how Duke gets the volume he did last year when they had nobody else worth throwing to 

They signed two early down backs that are basically no threat to a pass catching running back (I know Hyde isn't incapable, but he's not a threat to passing down work). 

 

They signed a mobile QB who has a history of checking down. 

 

They have good WRs/TEs who will attract attention. (That's a good thing for a pass catching RB)

 

All in all, I'd say his situation is BETTER than last year. It certainly isn't worse. This is a guy that can legitimately be your PPR RB2.


Not often that a 24 year old running back finishes as an RB1, and then is an afterthought the next year. I have no explanation for it. 

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The hype is colder than cold for Duke Johnson.

 

Johnson finished 11th in PPR last year.  He has excellent odds of finishing as an RB2 this year, and yet he’s being drafted as an RB3/4 in the 9th round.  The Browns just paid him, so he’ll be used frequently.  The lack of hype is due to his lack of playing time in the preseason.  You know who else isn’t playing... Gurley.  I’m not comparing their role, but pointing out neither has anything to prove.  Johnson’s role is set in stone with zero competition.

 

Quote:

He set a franchise record for receptions by a running back with 74 in 2017, breaking Greg Pruitt’s 36-year old mark of 65 receptions. Johnson is also reliable, as he has caught 78 percent of the passes thrown his way in the NFL and has never missed a game.

Edited by seanismorris

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1 minute ago, seanismorris said:

The hype is colder than cold for Duke Johnson.

 

Johnson finished 11th in PPR last year.  He has excellent odds of finishing as an RB2 this year, and yet he’s being drafted as an RB3/4 in the 9th round.  The Browns just paid him, so he’ll be used frequently.  The lack of hype is due to his lack of playing time in the preseason.  You know who else isn’t playing... Gurley.  I’m not comparing their role, but pointing out neither has anything to prove.  Johnson’s role is set in stone with zero competition.

 

 

 

Quote:

He set a franchise record for receptions by a running back with 74 in 2017, breaking Greg Pruitt’s 36-year old mark of 65 receptions. Johnson is also reliable, as he has caught 78 percent of the passes thrown his way in the NFL and has never missed a game.

 

The lack of hype is because:

 

1. The arrival of Chubb (plus the swap of Crowell for Hyde) kills any hope of him being more than just a satellite back. 

 

2. He scored a lot of TDs last year for the touches he got and is primed for negative regression. 

 

3. The arrival of Landry = competition for the short/intermediate range targets Duke has lived in. Same for any potential Njoku uptick in usage.

 

4. Finally, CLE projects to be a run first team, and he's the 3rd running back option there. 

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Carlos Hyde is much better than Crowell and now there are lots of passing options in Cleveland. I am on the verge of putting Duke in the DnD pile.

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Not sure if this has been posted in this thread:  https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2018/07/28/cleveland-browns-fantasy-football-outlook-running-backs/

 

A late July look at what to expect from the Browns running game from offensive coordinator analysis to analyses on the running backs. 

 

It ends with an interesting point:

 

According to Warren Sharp’s analysis, the Browns have the eighth-toughest schedule in 2018 and the most challenging slate of opposing offenses in the first 10 weeks of the season. With this information, I am already expecting to be wrong on the Duke Johnson fantasy projection. Since the Cleveland Browns will be facing good opposing offenses we should also expect the Browns to be trying to score a lot of points during the game or be in catch-up mode late. This means Duke Johnson on the field early and often. We should expect to see Duke Johnson — and not Carlos Hyde — lead the Browns in total touches for the 2018 season.

 

If the Browns really do experience negative game scripts early we should also expect the “between the tackles” role to see less action. With this being the most likely case, Nick Chubb and Carlos Hyde will see limited action. Only invest if it is in the last few rounds of your fantasy draft. One of these two may even be dropped early in the season for a hot name off the waiver wire.

Edited by nine9s

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Wildly underrated. He's going to catch 60-70 balls. No one is going to reach for him, but he'll be a weekly RB2 in PPR. 

 

People have innacurately said he only caught so many passes last year because he was playing WR. After week 1 (when he didn't have much success), Johnson did almost all of his damage out of the backfield. If anything, he may work more as a WR this year.  

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13 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Yahoo has him projected for almost 20 ppr points week 1. 

I saw that. Don’t know what happened but their projections are whack. 

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37 minutes ago, CooL said:

I saw that. Don’t know what happened but their projections are whack. 

 

Pittsburgh is going to give up 4 catches/100 total yards/1 TD to duke....... okay.

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1 hour ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Yahoo has him projected for almost 20 ppr points week 1. 

Weekly projections are stupid, but I think the general idea that Duke is a smart PPR flex for week 1 is a reasonable thought.  

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Weekly projections are stupid, but I think the general idea that Duke is a smart PPR flex for week 1 is a reasonable thought.  

 

Agreed. I just thought it was cute. 

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I just feel like it's the same song and dance for Duke every year. He's perpetually overlooked in fantasy circles and winds up getting drafted 20 picks too low. It's hard to not envision a scenario where at the end of the year he hasn't totaled 1kish yards from scrimmage and catches 55-65 passes and winds up a very viable high end flex option in PPR leagues. He's still one of the best RBs in the league on third downs and is a great safety net for your QB. Is he the sexiest pick or does offer some huge upside? No, but I'm very comfortable with him as my RB4.

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