The 7th Beatles

Duke Johnson 2018 Outlook

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3 hours ago, tts42572 said:

 

In standard leagues I'd agree for sure.  In PPR's though he could be a decent RB.

 

I've always struggled a bit with these types of guys because I've always only played in standard leagues.  I've always wanted guys that get guaranteed touches with red zone carries over guys you are hoping catch a handful of passes. 

 

However, my league switched to a PPR this year and I'm getting a new respect for these guys.  I mean, they basically are scoring TD's with their receptions.

 

I do think it's tough to say too much after just one game but this game is a nice start toward getting Duke's value back.  With the Browns receivers and a rookie QB, really no reason they shouldn't scheme Duke 5-6 catches a game with a few carries.  Him and Chubb could make a nice 1-2 punch.

 

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16 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Why would he be only match-up dependent?  Unless you play in standard leagues sure I guess.  Otherwise he will be a RB2 considering:

 

1) He was RB11 last year in ppr.

2) The lack of dependable WR on the Browns team

3) Chubbs is not a pass-catcher

4) Kitchens being a RB coach and they clearly schemed to get the ball to him.  Why would they stop when he can be their most reliable weapon save Landry?

 

Oh yeah and bonus:  The only RBs to catch more passes last year than him were Thompson, Bell and CMAC.  

Agreed, and reception dependent RBs are just fine in PPR, especially this season and even last season.  James White has been an every week back for 2 seasons now and a lot of his value is strictly from him in the passing game.  Obviously he's taken a step forward this year, but he's still in that group.  Same goes for Duke Johnson.  They are pretty much guaranteed at least 10 points a week, which is enough to make him at least an every week FLEX or a solid enough RB2.

 

I plan on rolling with Duke as much as I can as my FLEX the rest of the way.  I may even try to make a trade to free up a spot in my lineup since it may be hard to get him in there every week even though I'd like to as he was basically a throw-in to a trade I made before Week 9.

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Just keep in mind, they are not going to play Chiefs every week, Duke seems to have great receiving forecast with new coaches but temper yourself.

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Agreed on tempering expectations, but I think the excitement (and why I held on to him for this very last week) is that the dude is a legit playmaker.  This isn't a case of simply getting volume points, next man up thing, if he gets the ball in open space, he's a threat every time.....so I'd like to see a couple more weeks of decent production, but he has a pretty nice potential ceiling.

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2/3rd of the remaining teams left on CLE schedule are among the worst defenses in terms of points allowed to RB's.

 

Falcons, Bengals x2, Texans, Panthers, Broncos. 

 

 

Edited by jstep13
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8 minutes ago, DJSatane said:

Just keep in mind, they are not going to play Chiefs every week, Duke seems to have great receiving forecast with new coaches but temper yourself.

but they DO play Atlanta next week, and they're basically the Chiefs light--great offense, crappy defense. I wouldn't be surprised if the game script ended up being similar to what happened this weekend. he might not score another 20 points (standard) but I'm thinking he'll get a bunch of touches again.

 

also--i think he might have some standard value just because of how hard it's been to find guys who can put up consistent points from the RB spot in standard this season. the league seems to be moving in a direction where a guy who only gets a ton of passing targets still has value in a standard league. 

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I dropped DJ at the last minute, man ticked off! Thinking of spending 100% of my remaining FAAB to get him back just to have him around, I mean week 10, seasons almost over!!!

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3 minutes ago, mi26 said:

worth a #1 waiver in 10 team league?

 

I would say yes at this point. There's not many weeks left. You'd be banking on one of the top RBs going down and their backup stepping in without missing a beat.

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1 hour ago, CraftyRighty said:

I dropped DJ at the last minute, man ticked off! Thinking of spending 100% of my remaining FAAB to get him back just to have him around, I mean week 10, seasons almost over!!!

I'm going all in (1 PPR League) this week. 

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Just dropped Jalen Richard and picked up Duke Johnson in my PPR League. Hope I made the right call, I know it's a not a season winner move but I'm all aboard.

Edited by jagsfan05

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How do you guys feel about him ROS (.5PPR)? RB3/FLEX with RB2 upside?

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5 hours ago, Jin said:

How do you guys feel about him ROS (.5PPR)? RB3/FLEX with RB2 upside?

 

Sounds about right. Not seeing much love for him this week despite the + matchup, however.

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3 hours ago, smeeze said:

 

Sounds about right. Not seeing much love for him this week despite the + matchup, however.

 

It's cause of Nick Chubb but I dont see any reason why the Duke couldn't have a big game here. He is a good player.

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1 hour ago, metalmat said:

 

It's cause of Nick Chubb but I dont see any reason why the Duke couldn't have a big game here. He is a good player.

 

I agree. 

 

The Duke is now getting a lot more opportunities now and he's taking full advantage of them.  

 

I have him penciled in as a top 20 RB this week.  

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The Browns put up 35 points and this all we get from Duke? 

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43 minutes ago, metalmat said:

The Browns put up 35 points and this all we get from Duke? 

They took such a commanding lead that they just handed it to chub the rest of the game. Duke did drop a touchdown pass though

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Gamescript dependent? I'm thinking if the browns are trying to catch up, this guy will get more opportunities due to his pass catching ability.

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Ugh, disgusting. You can't start this guy in the playoffs, even in a positive game script he does nothing. Unfortunately I might be forced to have to start him in the playoffs on one team cause literally the only person I have worth a damn I can start over him is Kenny Stills. Terrible.

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2 minutes ago, metalmat said:

Ugh, disgusting. You can't start this guy in the playoffs, even in a positive game script he does nothing. Unfortunately I might be forced to have to start him in the playoffs on one team cause literally the only person I have worth a damn I can start over him is Kenny Stills. Terrible.

I don't get it. It's not like he's been bad, they just refuse to involve him. When everyone was saying last year was a fluke, I went the other way. Bad call. Hopefully he has more success next year, because his talent has been wasted this season.

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8 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I don't get it. It's not like he's been bad, they just refuse to involve him. When everyone was saying last year was a fluke, I went the other way. Bad call. Hopefully he has more success next year, because his talent has been wasted this season.

 

It just looks like there are too many people vying for targets in an offense that's not all that great. Landry, Calloway, Njoku, and even Higgins are just all ahead in the pecking order. Frankly I don't even know how much it improves next season depending on who the HC is, besides Higgins who is an RFA the rest of these guys are still going to be there and it's likely Cleveland drafts a WR.

 

Maybe the Browns will try and trade him to a team that actually wants to use him during the off-season cause the Browns surely are not.

Edited by metalmat

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