The 7th Beatles

Duke Johnson 2018 Outlook

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9 hours ago, CrastersCreep said:

I just feel like it's the same song and dance for Duke every year. He's perpetually overlooked in fantasy circles and winds up getting drafted 20 picks too low. It's hard to not envision a scenario where at the end of the year he hasn't totaled 1kish yards from scrimmage and catches 55-65 passes and winds up a very viable high end flex option in PPR leagues. He's still one of the best RBs in the league on third downs and is a great safety net for your QB. Is he the sexiest pick or does offer some huge upside? No, but I'm very comfortable with him as my RB4.

I mean, he had 130 carries + targets on 1st&2nd downs last year. Expect that number to come way down. Carlos Hyde is not the Crow.

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Predicting a downpour in Cleveland this weekend.  Obviously benefits Hyde.  But what about short passes and dump offs to Duke?  I'm concerned that he didn't catch a single ball in preseason, almost like he's become invisible in this backfield.

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2 hours ago, Tugginroot said:

Ok so this game was very troubling.   Used to him being a ppr machine, but this game was rough!

He also had 0 catches in the preseason. I'm not cutting him but I'm definitely panicking. 

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On 9/10/2018 at 1:40 AM, AnonymousRob said:

He also had 0 catches in the preseason. I'm not cutting him but I'm definitely panicking. 

40 MPH winds. Game was really sloppy. Taylor was 15/40 for crying out loud. That's not a normal game. 

 

Snap count. Hyde: 47. Johnson: 41. Chubb: 4. 

 

He will have way better games. Don't panic. In fact, if you can buy Duke for pennies, do it! 

Edited by ajs723
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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

40 MPH winds. Game was really sloppy. Taylor was 15/40 for crying out loud. That's not a normal game. 

 

Snap count. Hyde: 47. Johnson: 41. Chubb: 4. 

 

He will have way better games. Don't panic. In fact, if you can buy Duke for pennies, do it! 

 

Buy him for upside to be a RB3? No thanks. Unless Hyde gets hurt I don't see anything worthwhile here. Plus Chubb is handily their best back.

 

 I'd pick Duke up off waivers if he was there, or take him as a throw in, but I'm certainly not targeting him in a trade.

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4 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

40 MPH winds. Game was really sloppy. Taylor was 15/40 for crying out loud. That's not a normal game. 

 

Snap count. Hyde: 47. Johnson: 41. Chubb: 4. 

 

He will have way better games. Don't panic. In fact, if you can buy Duke for pennies, do it! 

I agree there are reasons to dismiss this game. But when it's combined with preseason I think it definitely becomes more alarming. I still think owners are effectively stuck with him as few would pay for his potential or last year's stats, but it's a troubling set of tea leaves we're working with so far. On the plus side, New Orleans should allow him to hit his upside this week.

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1 hour ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

 

Buy him for upside to be a RB3? No thanks. Unless Hyde gets hurt I don't see anything worthwhile here. Plus Chubb is handily their best back.

 

 I'd pick Duke up off waivers if he was there, or take him as a throw in, but I'm certainly not targeting him in a trade.

Depends on the league. In deeper PPR leagues, Duke still has plenty of value. 

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5 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Depends on the league. In deeper PPR leagues, Duke still has plenty of value. 

Less value than TJ Yeldon, Phillip Lindsay, Austin Ekeler, or even Buck Allen.

He was on the field for 40 something snaps but was hardly involved in the offense.

His problem is that Tyrod would rather just run the ball.  That obviously makes a huge difference in his season outlook.

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14 hours ago, CooL said:

Less value than TJ Yeldon, Phillip Lindsay, Austin Ekeler, or even Buck Allen.

He was on the field for 40 something snaps but was hardly involved in the offense.

His problem is that Tyrod would rather just run the ball.  That obviously makes a huge difference in his season outlook.

Disagree wholeheartedly. None of those guys had more targets than Duke, so Taylor is clearly willing to throw him the ball. More importantly, Johnson played 46% of the snaps. Ekeler played 27%. Lindsay played 36%. Buck Allen 38%.

 

He's clearly ahead of those guys, and that's why he's a good buy low. He had almost an identical role as Chris Thompson, it's just that Taylor couldn't complete a pass to save his life in that weather. He's not going to complete 15% of his passes to Johnson on the year. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Disagree wholeheartedly. None of those guys had more targets than Duke, so Taylor is clearly willing to throw him the ball. More importantly, Johnson played 46% of the snaps. Ekeler played 27%. Lindsay played 36%. Buck Allen 38%.

 

He's clearly ahead of those guys, and that's why he's a good buy low. He had almost an identical role as Chris Thompson, it's just that Taylor couldn't complete a pass to save his life in that weather. He's not going to complete 15% of his passes to Johnson on the year. 

Yeah, looking at it again, I'm surprised to see the snap counts.  It's just that he didn't do anything with his chances, likely because of Taylor's inaccuracy, his propensity to run, and even perhaps the weather.  Combining his 0 catch preseason with his 3.5 point performance however isn't exactly reassuring.  Meanwhile you have Ekeler who looks like he will be a big part of the offense, at least certainly in catch-up and garbage time.  And Lindsay who is the new exciting thing.  He's a hold for now for me, but if there's another game plan and performance like last week, then he's out for me easily without looking back or caring.

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2 hours ago, CooL said:

Yeah, looking at it again, I'm surprised to see the snap counts.  It's just that he didn't do anything with his chances, likely because of Taylor's inaccuracy, his propensity to run, and even perhaps the weather.  Combining his 0 catch preseason with his 3.5 point performance however isn't exactly reassuring.  Meanwhile you have Ekeler who looks like he will be a big part of the offense, at least certainly in catch-up and garbage time.  And Lindsay who is the new exciting thing.  He's a hold for now for me, but if there's another game plan and performance like last week, then he's out for me easily without looking back or caring.

I think Ekeler and Lindsay are good for what they are, but you can't expect week 1 to be consistently repeatable for those two. I think Johnson is much more likely to produce week-to-week, despite the end result from week 1. 

 

Agreed with your final point though. If Johnson doesn't catch several passes, and show well against New Orleans, then it's time to worry. I think he'll be plenty involved in this game though. I'm almost tempted to flex him. 

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I'm rolling him out as my RB2 this week.  He should see more volume with Gordon out.  Or Landry will get it all lol.

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Don't know how nobody talks about him.  He finished top 12 in RBs last year in ppr leagues (rb1 territory), but yet nobody treats him as such.  Was it just situational last year, or doable again this year, with a different qb(s).  I'm sure Mayfield will be better for him with dumpoffs and screens, as Tyrod just runs if there's nothing there.

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5 hours ago, RJRJRJ said:

I'm rolling him out as my RB2 this week.  He should see more volume with Gordon out.  Or Landry will get it all lol.

Not sure Gordon being out/released helps him much.  Was he split out wide at all?  I didn't watch any of the game.  I seem to remember last year that he was in the backfield but also lined up outside, which helped a lot in his potential targets. If he's just the change of pace and 3rd down guy, the week 1 result is a bit concerning.

 

3 hours ago, Tugginroot said:

Don't know how nobody talks about him.  He finished top 12 in RBs last year in ppr leagues (rb1 territory), but yet nobody treats him as such.  Was it just situational last year, or doable again this year, with a different qb(s).  I'm sure Mayfield will be better for him with dumpoffs and screens, as Tyrod just runs if there's nothing there.

In addition to the dumpoffs, he got a lot of the short range targets naturally.  But now they have Landry.  And a running QB.  And he stunk it up week 1.  That's why nobody is talking about him, much to his owners' dismay.

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9 hours ago, RJRJRJ said:

I'm rolling him out as my RB2 this week.  He should see more volume with Gordon out.  Or Landry will get it all lol.

 

C. Hyde led SF in catches last season (including WRs) @ 59, does that not worry us RE Duke v Hyde??

 

I feel like Hyde is getting most of the run when I read about the CLE backfield.  I know Duke is a great catching back, but is he THAT MUCH more useful than Carlos overall??   

Edited by Cleanface

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On 9/9/2018 at 11:40 PM, AnonymousRob said:

He also had 0 catches in the preseason. I'm not cutting him but I'm definitely panicking. 

I've passed panic stage and have moved into acceptance. I'm dropping him where I have him. 

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What's with this dude?  He's worthless.  I don't care if he was PPR #11 or 12 last year anymore.  That was last year, this is this year.  Clearly he is not being used the same way.  He's a drop for me.

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Most disappointing player in fantasy through 2 weeks for me. I thought he'd be doing what Chris Thompson is doing. I do think he'll have better games, but he's impossible to trust at this point. 

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Most disappointing player in fantasy through 2 weeks for me. I thought he'd be doing what Chris Thompson is doing. I do think he'll have better games, but he's impossible to trust at this point. 

 

Thompson has Alex "Checkdown King" Smith. Duke was never going to do anything this year with Tyrod.

 

 

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I feel like as soon as I drop him he's gonna get his ppr going again. What a waste of talent... 

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7 minutes ago, Godeep said:

I feel like as soon as I drop him he's gonna get his ppr going again. What a waste of talent... 

I’d hold if possible . His value should increase if/when tyrod loses the job to mayfield 

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