• Announcements

    • Patrick Bateman

      Check out the new Rotoworld Beta Site!   11/14/2018

      Rotoworld has been the industry leader in fantasy news and analysis for years, but it was time for a much-needed facelift!  While our around-the-clock, comprehensive coverage will remain the same, the new Rotoworld design will be sleeker, easier to navigate, more video-friendly and will finally be mobile-optimized.    That’s right, you can finally stop pinching the screens on your phones to read our content!  Right now we’re in the beta phase of our launch, and it’s still a work-in-progress, but we’d love for you to check out our soon-to-be new digs, and let us know what you think: https://beta.rotoworld.com.    And then please use the Contact Us button to give us feedback!  
RMJ_12

2018 Biggest Busts

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Maybe it's just me, but I'm still not seeing "bust" there.

Yeah, no kidding.  If your prediction is right, Watson is the QB1.

 

However, I have a hard time believing that this is a realistic outlook for Watson.  This looks more like a season long ceiling than anything.  

 

How much do you believe?

 

Say you picked 1.12 in a snake draft.  Also say that Watson's ADP is 3.05.  It's highly unlikely that Watson is there for you at 3.12.  Do you reach for him at 2.01 just to make sure you have him?

 

That's the thing that blows about snake drafting.  That s--- is garbage.  Auction or nothing.  I hate being a slave to ADP and draft position.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Axe Elf gonna be jumping in Lake Erie next to Hue Jackson this time next year. 

He always disappears once the season starts anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Low enough to disappear for about 6 months so you didn't have to own up to it lol. 

 

I find you entertaining, I don't intend to attack, although I'm sure that's what it appears that I'm doing. 

 

We all have bad years, so it's not a big deal. 

 

Plenty of people attack when they feel inferior, and around Axe Elf, it's almost inevitable.  So I don't take it personally; I get that it's just a lack of understanding.

 

Since you clearly care, though, I will help to set you aright.  You may have missed the March closing summary to Axe Elf's 2017 Leagues, Teams and Players thread, so I will link you to it here:

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Plenty of people attack when they feel inferior, and around Axe Elf, it's almost inevitable.  So I don't take it personally; I get that it's just a lack of understanding.

 

Since you clearly care, though, I will help to set you aright.  You may have missed the March closing summary to Axe Elf's 2017 Leagues, Teams and Players thread, so I will link you to it here:

 

 

 

Lol. That thread you linked showed me your team and it was horrible man. The first post was you saying how sick your team was and how easy FF is. 

 

You can sit here and tell me you won the title in that league and that's fine, but just know I won't believe you. That's a terrible team... honestly. 

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Yeah, no kidding.  If your prediction is right, Watson is the QB1.  


Yeah, no kidding.  We all knew that already.

 

23 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

That's the thing that blows about snake drafting.  That s--- is garbage.  Auction or nothing.  I hate being a slave to ADP and draft position.  

 

Agreed.

 

In most serious (non-mock money league) snake drafts I've seen, though, Watson can be had any time in the third, and usually into the fourth as well, so no, at this point, if I was picking 1.12, I would probably not pick Watson at 2.01.  But if he wasn't there at 3.12, I'd be pretty sure that I had a lot of catching up to do.  If it ever got to the point where I truly believed I could not get him at 3.12, then yeah, I would draft him at 2.01.

 

In case you missed it in the Deshaun Watson thread, I will repeat it here:

 

Axe Elf's Iron Law of Drafting 2018:  He who drafts Deshaun Watson wins.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Lol. That thread you linked showed me your team and it was horrible man. The first post was you saying how sick your team was and how easy FF is. 

 

You can sit here and tell me you won the title in that league and that's fine, but just know I won't believe you. That's a terrible team... honestly. 

 

I linked you to the final post in the thread, and you only read the first one?

 

And then you wonder why you have these lapses of understanding...

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

That's a terrible team... honestly. 

 

Oh, by the way, how is having four top 10 WRs "terrible"?  Or maybe you don't like Zach Ertz and Jack Doyle at TE?  Maybe you're not a Cowboys fan, and you hate Zeke?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:


Yeah, no kidding.  We all knew that already.

 

 

Agreed.

 

In most serious (non-mock money league) snake drafts I've seen, though, Watson can be had any time in the third, and usually into the fourth as well, so no, at this point, if I was picking 1.12, I would probably not pick Watson at 2.01.  But if he wasn't there at 3.12, I'd be pretty sure that I had a lot of catching up to do.  If it ever got to the point where I truly believed I could not get him at 3.12, then yeah, I would draft him at 2.01.

 

In case you missed it in the Deshaun Watson thread, I will repeat it here:

 

Axe Elf's Iron Law of Drafting 2018:  He who drafts Deshaun Watson wins.

He's a chucker...it will catch up with him this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry about your dad, Axe.  Mine died of pancreatic cancer at 63 in May of 14.  But as a lifetime Seahawks fan from the Jim Zorn Sherman Smith and Efrain Herrera days on, he got to see the Seattle Seahawks win the big one a couple months before he went.

 

But this is not the dads passing away thread.  I like Watson early and Matt Ryan or Cousins or somebody late.  What do you think about Cam Newton?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Sorry about your dad, Axe.  Mine died of pancreatic cancer at 63 in May of 14.  But as a lifetime Seahawks fan from the Jim Zorn Sherman Smith and Efrain Herrera days on, he got to see the Seattle Seahawks win the big one a couple months before he went.

 

But this is not the dads passing away thread.  I like Watson early and Matt Ryan or Cousins or somebody late.  What do you think about Cam Newton?

 

Thx.

 

"QB is the new D" pretty much still applies to every QB not named Watson.  If I don't get the potential league-winner, then I'm waiting until the double-digit rounds.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Thx.

 

"QB is the new D" pretty much still applies to every QB not named Watson.  If I don't get the potential league-winner, then I'm waiting until the double-digit rounds.

Do you have data to back this claim up? As far as I’m concerned, it’s false.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Do you have data to back this claim up? As far as I’m concerned, it’s false.

 

If, by "data," you mean the observation that every QB between about QB5 and QB17 in most all fantasy seasons will each score within about two fantasy points per week of each other, and that it's largely a crapshoot to determine who those elite three to five will be or even who will round out the top 10, then yes; yes I do.

 

But Watson will be far and away the best QB in the league every week that he's healthy, so he is the one exception to the rule--the one "elite" QB that is actually worth his price.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

If, by "data," you mean the observation that every QB between about QB5 and QB17 in most all fantasy seasons will each score within about two fantasy points per week of each other, and that it's largely a crapshoot to determine who those elite three to five will be or even who will round out the top 10, then yes; yes I do.

 

But Watson will be far and away the best QB in the league every week that he's healthy, so he is the one exception to the rule--the one "elite" QB that is actually worth his price.

Last year that gap was 4.5 points per week.  Which is around 75 total points.

 

Your data seems to equal whatever you prefer to make a point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Axe Elf said:


Yeah, no kidding.  We all knew that already.

 

 

Agreed.

 

In most serious (non-mock money league) snake drafts I've seen, though, Watson can be had any time in the third, and usually into the fourth as well, so no, at this point, if I was picking 1.12, I would probably not pick Watson at 2.01.  But if he wasn't there at 3.12, I'd be pretty sure that I had a lot of catching up to do.  If it ever got to the point where I truly believed I could not get him at 3.12, then yeah, I would draft him at 2.01.

 

In case you missed it in the Deshaun Watson thread, I will repeat it here:

 

Axe Elf's Iron Law of Drafting 2018:  He who drafts Deshaun Watson wins.

 

Just like Jay Ajayi last year in round 1

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

Oh, by the way, how is having four top 10 WRs "terrible"?

WR:  Michael Thomas (5) $41, Allen Robinson (8) $17, Larry Fitzgerald (8) $12, Pierre Garcon (11) $2, Donte Moncrief (11) $1

 

Where are these four top 10 WR's?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure why several people are predicting the Vikings WRs to bust. They are improving at the QB position and haven't lost anyone of huge significance anywhere on the offense. 

 

Anyone citing Keenum's completion percentage as a point of how he is a better QB than Cousins should probably look a little closer. Cousin's completion percentage in the full three seasons he was the starter is 67% and his career completion percentage is 65.5% which ranks 5th all time. Two of Cousin's three years as a starter he had a completion percentage as over 67% and Cousin's also ranks 10th all time in career passer rating.

 

So I'm curious as to why people think the Viking's receivers will bust?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Love all those.  I will add:

 

Jarvis Landry--precipitous drop in volume for this compiler.

 

Marshawn Lynch--Doug Martin signing a very dark cloud on the horizon.

 

Christian McCaffrey--last year's GM is gone.  CJ Anderson is here.

 

Jordan Reed--talented but injury waiting to happen.

 

Drew Brees--running game and defense continue to rise.  Brees enters game manager stage of career, never recovers former volume.

 

Demaryius Thomas--Case Keenum's errant darts no career savior for this declining player.

What do cj Anderson and a GM leaving have to do with cmc? Cj will just fill in for Stewart. And by GM do you mean OC? 

 

Also for DT are you trying to say he sucks or keenum does? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wait... eagles coaches say ajayi is eh man? I won’t be drafting him at all then. Every f***inh year they say the wrong s--- about their rbs. Remember when Ryan Matthews looked amazing and was their guy? Then got carries in like 2 games? Doug Peterson is the absolute worst coach when it comes to tranceperency for his rbs and I will never trust a thing he says ever again

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Last year that gap was 4.5 points per week.  Which is around 75 total points.

 

Your data seems to equal whatever you prefer to make a point.

 

Y'all make me giggle with your droll little hand-waving, as if you've made some kind of a valid point.

 

STD
RANK
PLAYER
TEAM
POINTS
GAMES
AVG
26 Deshaun Watson HOU 168.8 7 24.1
5 Carson Wentz PHI 283.7 13 21.8
1 Russell Wilson SEA 347.8 16 21.7
4 Alex Smith WAS 295.1 15 19.7
2 Cam Newton CAR 299.5 16 18.7
3 Tom Brady NE 295.9 16 18.5
29 Aaron Rodgers GB 129.5 7 18.5
6 Kirk Cousins MIN 277.6 16 17.4
11 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 260.6 15 17.4
7 Matthew Stafford DET 273.8 16 17.1
12 Jared Goff LAR 255.5 15 17.0
8 Philip Rivers LAC 270.5 16 16.9
9 Drew Brees NO 262.6 16 16.4
10 Dak Prescott DAL 260.8 16 16.3
14 Case Keenum DEN 238.1 15 15.9
21 Josh McCown NYJ 205.6 13 15.8
13 Blake Bortles JAC 249.7 16 15.6
22 Jameis Winston TB 201.8 13 15.5
16 Tyrod Taylor CLE 222.6 15 14.8
33 C.J. Beathard SF 88.8 6 14.8
32 Carson Palmer FA 102.4 7 14.6
34 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 86.9 6 14.5
15 Matt Ryan ATL 228.1 16 14.3
18 Marcus Mariota TEN 210.4 15 14.0
19 Derek Carr OAK 206.3 15

13.8

 

On a ppg basis, the QB5, QB6 and QB7 were all virtually the same last season.  It was a full 1.1 pts per game down from that virtual tie at QB567 to QB8, but the difference between QB8 and QB18 (Jameis Winston) was exactly 1.9 pts per game.  Like I said, ABOUT 2 pts per game.  Or maybe you spent an early draft pick on Drew Brees (QB13), Matt Ryan (QB23), Marcus Mariota (QB24) or Derek Carr (QB25)?

 

And when you add in the fact that three of the top four QBs on a ppg basis last season were likely available as free agents when Week 1 commenced, there's just no reason to draft any QB not named Watson early.

 

Not good enough?  Let's go back to 2016:

 

RANK
PLAYER
TEAM
POINTS
GAMES
AVG
1 Aaron Rodgers GB 380.0 16 23.8
2 Matt Ryan ATL 347.5 16 21.7
15 Tom Brady NE 258.4 12 21.5
3 Drew Brees NO 332.3 16 20.8
4 Andrew Luck IND 307.6 15 20.5
5 Kirk Cousins MIN 300.7 16 18.8
25 Colin Kaepernick FA 200.3 11 18.2
8 Tyrod Taylor CLE 270.9 15 18.1
18 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 252.3 14 18.0
6 Dak Prescott DAL 287.1 16 17.9
10 Derek Carr OAK 268.4 15 17.9
7 Matthew Stafford DET 279.7 16 17.5
12 Marcus Mariota TEN 260.7 15 17.4
17 Cam Newton CAR 254.3 15 17.0
9 Blake Bortles JAC 270.1 16 16.9
11 Russell Wilson SEA 268.1 16 16.8
13 Andy Dalton CIN 260.6 16 16.3
14 Philip Rivers LAC 259.0 16 16.2
19 Carson Palmer FA 243.2 15 16.2
16 Jameis Winston TB 256.5 16 16.0
20 Joe Flacco BAL 242.0 16 15.1
22 Alex Smith WAS 223.9 15 14.9
23 Sam Bradford ARI 220.9 15 14.7
27 Ryan Tannehill MIA 190.4 13 14.6
21 Eli Manning NYG 224.1 16 14.0

 

Again, we see a 1.7 pts per week dropoff after QB5, and the difference between QB6 and QB16 is another 2.0 pts per week.  Again, we see surprises in the top 10 that were free agents in Week 1--Matt Ryan was the #22 QB off the board that season; he wound up #2.  Kirk Cousins and Tyrod Taylor were surprise top 10 QBs as well.  But maybe you paid a high price for Cam Newton or Russell Wilson instead?

 

Unless you have a darned good chance of nailing one of the top 5 QBs (and for the most part, it's about a coin flip), it's just not worth spending the draft capital on your favorite.  But with Deshaun Watson , you have a darned good chance of nailing THE top QB in the league for every week that he can stay healthy--and THAT difference can give you a 6-7 point edge over the field at the QB position.  He's just too good of a horse not to back him.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Chwf3rd said:

Just like Jay Ajayi last year in round 1

 

Axe Elf is good, but even Axe Elf can't predict a surprise Week 1 bye due to whatever hurricane it was that week, and then a midseason trade to a team with three other competing RBs, including ANOTHER bye week shortly thereafter.

 

But Axe Elf DID see the talent that led to Ajayi averaging 5.8 yards per carry in the limited work he got with his new team--including at least one run of 10 yards or more in every game he played with the Eagles.  Axe Elf saw the talent that sent LeGarrette Blount packing, and caused Eagles' RB Coach Duce Staley to declare Ajayi "the guy" in their backfield going into this season.  I wouldn't take him in Round 1, but he's a great value in Round 3 (and often under $20 in auctions).

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

WR:  Michael Thomas (5) $41, Allen Robinson (8) $17, Larry Fitzgerald (8) $12, Pierre Garcon (11) $2, Donte Moncrief (11) $1

 

Where are these four top 10 WR's?

 

You just pasted them, there, right in front of you.

 

Larry Fitzgerald was the WR4, Michael Thomas was the WR6, and ok, San Fran got off to a rocky start, but from Week 3 to Week 7, Garcon was tied for WR13 before he got hurt.  I think it's fair to say he might have improved a little over the last six weeks when Garoppolo started--but top tennish, anyway.  And Robinson was on pace for 480 receptions and 8,160 yards (though sadly, 0 TDs) when he went out for the season in the first two minutes of Week 1.  Okay, maybe he would have struggled to record even half that, but with the year that the Jags had, I think it's also fair to say that Robinson should have been a pretty decent WR4 behind the other three, even in the worst-case scenario.

 

What game are you people watching, anyway?  It's like every friggin' sentence I write, someone has to be, "Oh yeah?  Prove it!"  And then I prove it, and they're like, "Oh, ok."  Can't I ever just say something that stands on its own merit as a self-obvious fact?  Sheesh.  Buncha mall lawyers in here.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Remember when Ryan Matthews looked amazing and was their guy? Then got carries in like 2 games?  Doug Peterson is the absolute worst coach when it comes to tranceperency for his rbs and I will never trust a thing he says ever again

 

No, I don't remember that.  The only year that Pederson coached Mathews, he got 155 carries, averaged 4.3 yards each, and scored 9 TDs.

 

These days, being "the guy" doesn't mean you're going to get EVERY touch out of the backfield--but these days, just being an explosive runner that leads the rotation is enough.  As I said, Ajayi made the most of his limited opportunities in 2017, averaging 5.8 yards per carry (everybody went nuts over Ty Montgomery's 5.9 ypc in 2016) and springing at least one run of 10 yards or more in every game that he played.  Now Ajayi is going to get a few more carries, including the short yardage and goalline work that previously went to LeGarrette Blount, and even if Cory Clement is a change of pace back and Darren Sproles is a pass-catching back, Ajayi being "the guy" is a good thing for his owners.

 

And anyway, it wasn't Pederson who said it; it was the RB Coach, Duce Staley, who said it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

You just pasted them, there, right in front of you.

 

Larry Fitzgerald was the WR4, Michael Thomas was the WR6, and ok, San Fran got off to a rocky start, but from Week 3 to Week 7, Garcon was tied for WR13 before he got hurt.  I think it's fair to say he might have improved a little over the last six weeks when Garoppolo started--but top tennish, anyway.  And Robinson was on pace for 480 receptions and 8,160 yards (though sadly, 0 TDs) when he went out for the season in the first two minutes of Week 1.  Okay, maybe he would have struggled to record even half that, but with the year that the Jags had, I think it's also fair to say that Robinson should have been a pretty decent WR4 behind the other three, even in the worst-case scenario.

 

What game are you people watching, anyway?  It's like every friggin' sentence I write, someone has to be, "Oh yeah?  Prove it!"  And then I prove it, and they're like, "Oh, ok."  Can't I ever just say something that stands on its own merit as a self-obvious fact?  Sheesh.  Buncha mall lawyers in here.

 

Please do not pull this act again, here, this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now