RMJ_12

2018 Biggest Busts

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, munde53 said:

I'm not sure why several people are predicting the Vikings WRs to bust. They are improving at the QB position and haven't lost anyone of huge significance anywhere on the offense. 

 

Anyone citing Keenum's completion percentage as a point of how he is a better QB than Cousins should probably look a little closer. Cousin's completion percentage in the full three seasons he was the starter is 67% and his career completion percentage is 65.5% which ranks 5th all time. Two of Cousin's three years as a starter he had a completion percentage as over 67% and Cousin's also ranks 10th all time in career passer rating.

 

So I'm curious as to why people think the Viking's receivers will bust?

 

Cousins has never supported a top 10 fantasy WR in his entire career

 

the player on that team that stands to benefit the most is Kyle Rudolph 

 

see also: projections for Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder going into last season. How did that work out?

Edited by lolcopter
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6 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

What do cj Anderson and a GM leaving have to do with cmc? Cj will just fill in for Stewart. And by GM do you mean OC? 

 

Also for DT are you trying to say he sucks or keenum does? 

The GM (General Manager) who drafts a player in the top 10 is going to put pressure on the CS (Coaching Staff) including the OC (Offensive Coordinator) to play that player and give the player a prominent role, to help justify the pick and help the GM keep his job.

 

Once the GM who made the selection leaves, that pressure is gone.  If the GM got fired, one of the reasons may be that the organization considers the pick in question poorly used.  And the new GM has no iron in the fire to make sure the high pick succeeds.  The new GM may even sign a pretty high profile FA who plays the same position as the player drafted.

 

As for DT and Keenum, I think it is a combination of both.  I am highly unlikely to end up with either, let's put it that way.

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13 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

7th maybe but no way 5th, did you see that in a real draft lately?

 

Jordy's ADP on fantasyfootballcalculator.com in standard format is 5.04 right now.  I'm doing a mock draft for a different forum right now and he went 6.12

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Lol. That thread you linked showed me your team and it was horrible man. The first post was you saying how sick your team was and how easy FF is. 

 

You can sit here and tell me you won the title in that league and that's fine, but just know I won't believe you. That's a terrible team... honestly. 

 

My favorite part of his first post in the thread was him saying it's too easy after showing us that he had $14 remaining in his auction.  Everyone knows that if you have money left over in an auction that you did not do as well as you could have.

 

You're right, his drafted team was not very good.  I'm guessing maybe only 5 of those players were still on his team by the end of the season.

Edited by Hawkeye21
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7 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

What game are you people watching, anyway?  It's like every friggin' sentence I write, someone has to be, "Oh yeah?  Prove it!"  And then I prove it, and they're like, "Oh, ok."  Can't I ever just say something that stands on its own merit as a self-obvious fact?  Sheesh.  Buncha mall lawyers in here.

Yeah we like to use facts here in the forums.  Not just gift wrap our opinions to make them look like facts.

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AXEing for proof when most everything is a projection based on opinion cracks me up.

 

Even previously recorded stats are just a basis for formulating your predictions. Teams change personnel, players are improving or wearing down year to year so even with little turnover no team stays exactly the same.

 

Axe is like Big Game hunting , the hyenas are just waiting to pounce for their ounce of flesh . Axe is the ELFephant in the chat room that everyone tries to ignore but can't :wub:

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

My favorite part of his first post in the thread was him saying it's too easy after showing us that he had $14 remaining in his auction.  Everyone knows that if you have money left over in an auction that you did not do as well as you could have.

 

You're right, his drafted team was not very good.  I'm guessing maybe only 5 of those players were still on his team by the end of the season.

That's not necessarily true.

 

If you have $14 left over because you spent $32 on Kareem Hunt instead of $46 on Demarco Murray, then so be it.  No one remembers how many auction dollars you had left over after Hunt scores 50 points on Thursday night football to open the season.  Would you rather go back and have Demarco and no money left over?  Of course not.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

That's not necessarily true.

 

If you have $14 left over because you spent $32 on Kareem Hunt instead of $46 on Demarco Murray, then so be it.  No one remembers how many auction dollars you had left over after Hunt scores 50 points on Thursday night football to open the season.  Would you rather go back and have Demarco and no money left over?  Of course not.

 

You never want to have money left over.  You only mention one instance where you would be fine spending less on a player but we know there are plenty of other players you wish you would have taken instead if you just spent a little more.

Edited by Hawkeye21
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I dont think you can look at leftover money in terms of one player.   Great, maybe you got Hunt instead of DeMarco- but somewhere on that roster, you had 7% of your budget to improve something else, ANYTHING else.      Sure, you can still win the league without it, but nobody drafts a perfect team.  There has to be a player you could've upgraded with that money.   

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11 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

If, by "data," you mean the observation that every QB between about QB5 and QB17 in most all fantasy seasons will each score within about two fantasy points per week of each other, and that it's largely a crapshoot to determine who those elite three to five will be or even who will round out the top 10, then yes; yes I do.

 

But Watson will be far and away the best QB in the league every week that he's healthy, so he is the one exception to the rule--the one "elite" QB that is actually worth his price.

You didn't provide data. You provided information you claim to be data. I want actual data that supports the following two claims:

 

A. QBs are similar to defenses in discrepancy

B. Top 5 for QBs is a crap shoot compared to other positions.

 

Please note the last part of point B. If there is an outlier of discrepancy only in QBs then you have a point. However, if it is across all positions than it is a matter of not knowing how to draft. I'm not saying what you claim above is certainly false. However, you make a claim and fail to support it with data. 

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9 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

           
           

And when you add in the fact that three of the top four QBs on a ppg basis last season were likely available as free agents when Week 1 commenced, there's just no reason to draft any QB not named Watson early.

I think that's a pretty good reason not to take ANY QB early.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

You didn't provide data. You provided information you claim to be data. I want actual data that supports the following two claims:

 

A. QBs are similar to defenses in discrepancy

B. Top 5 for QBs is a crap shoot compared to other positions.

 

Please note the last part of point B. If there is an outlier of discrepancy only in QBs then you have a point. However, if it is across all positions than it is a matter of not knowing how to draft. I'm not saying what you claim above is certainly false. However, you make a claim and fail to support it with data. 

 

And you didn't ask me for data; you asked if I had data.

 

I'm not here to prove you wrong, I'm here to help you win championships.  Towards that goal, I have provided you with some fairly valuable information that can help you draft a QB more efficiently.  If you don't want to believe me, fine--suit yourself and draft your QBs in an inferior manner.  Every league champion who listened to Axe Elf needs nine other people who didn't, so your opinion still matters.

 

Edited by Axe Elf

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

I think that's a pretty good reason not to take ANY QB early.

 

Yes, it is.  As I said, "QB is the new D."

 

And it applies to every single QB not named Deshaun Watson.

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6 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Yes, it is.  As I said, "QB is the new D."

 

And it applies to every single QB not named Deshaun Watson.

 

It applies to all QBs and has been this way for years now.  This is nothing new.

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

It applies to all QBs and has been this way for years now.  This is nothing new.

 

Yep, although I'm having a hard time getting some of the thicker members of the community to understand it without a full set of 8x10 color glossy photographs with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one explaining what it shows.

 

The "new" part is having a QB that defies the rule--Deshaun Watson.

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1 minute ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Yep, although I'm having a hard time getting some of the thicker members of the community to understand it without a full set of 8x10 color glossy photographs with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one explaining what it shows.

 

The "new" part is having a QB that defies the rule--Deshaun Watson.

 

We don't know that about Watson yet.  Only saw a brief glimpse.  I'm not saying it's not possible but I do think it's unlikely.  I'm not using a high draft pick on him an any draft.  I will probably nominate him in an early round of my auction this year as I'm sure all the Houston fans will bid him up.

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

We don't know that about Watson yet.  Only saw a brief glimpse.  I'm not saying it's not possible but I do think it's unlikely.  I'm not using a high draft pick on him an any draft.  I will probably nominate him in an early round of my auction this year as I'm sure all the Houston fans will bid him up.

 

With the cheap price of top 10 QBs to back up Watson, there's virtually no risk in using a high pick on him.  Either he busts, and you use the same double-digit round QB you were going to use anyway, or he wins your league for you.  Low-risk, high-reward--isn't that what we all covet in fantasy football drafts?

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1 minute ago, Axe Elf said:

 

With the cheap price of top 10 QBs to back up Watson, there's virtually no risk in using a high pick on him.  Either he busts, and you use the same double-digit round QB you were going to use anyway, or he wins your league for you.  Low-risk, high-reward--isn't that what we all covet in fantasy football drafts?

 

If you are looking at it solely at the QB position but I'm looking at it as giving up a starting RB or WR for a n easily replaceable QB.  That's the whole point in drafting a QB late.

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22 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

And you didn't ask me for data; you asked if I had data.

 

I'm not here to prove you wrong, I'm here to help you win championships.  Towards that goal, I have provided you with some fairly valuable information that can help you draft a QB more efficiently.  If you don't want to believe me, fine--suit yourself and draft your QBs in an inferior manner.  Every league champion who listened to Axe Elf needs nine other people who didn't, so your opinion still matters.

 

Me asking if you have data implies you reply and if you do have data you provide it. Otherwise, your argument is a burden of proof and thus it doesn’t hold water. If you expect people to just take what you say because you claim to be good at fantasy you are delusional. That’s not how any conversation should work. 

 

I ask again, can you back those claims up with data and if you can I ask you do. Again, I’m not saying you are wrong rather I want the data so I can analyze it and see if you are correct.

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Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

If you are looking at it solely at the QB position but I'm looking at it as giving up a starting RB or WR for a n easily replaceable QB.  That's the whole point in drafting a QB late.

 

To some extent, that's true, but assuming you use the first 2-3 rounds on some stud RB/WRs, you're really not missing much at RB or WR by taking Watson in the 4th that you can't approximate with other RB/WRs available in the 5th-8th rounds.

 

For instance, WRs with a 4th-round ADP are Hilton, Diggs, Fitzgerald, Gordon and Cooper.  If you take Watson instead, you still have guys like Robinson, Thomas, Jeffery, Juju and Cooks in the 5th, and even top-15 guys like Marvin Jones, Edelman and Garcon available even later.  If you miss out on Mixon, Collins and Drake at RB, you can just go with Ajayi, Penny or Ingram later and be no worse off.

 

So there's really little to no downside to drafting Watson.

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7 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Me asking if you have data implies you reply and if you do have data you provide it. Otherwise, your argument is a burden of proof and thus it doesn’t hold water. If you expect people to just take what you say because you claim to be good at fantasy you are delusional. That’s not how any conversation should work. 

 

I ask again, can you back those claims up with data and if you can I ask you do. Again, I’m not saying you are wrong rather I want the data so I can analyze it and see if you are correct.

 

I have a burden of jack squat.  Like I said, if you don't want to believe me, don't.  If you want to research it yourself, research it yourself.  I don't care if the positional differential for QBs is EXACTLY equal to that of Defenses; the point is just that like Defenses, most QBs score within a point or two of each other on a weekly basis, and you can usually get a few of them off waivers that will be among the best in the league that year.  This is self-obvious in the seasonal standings, but again, it's not incumbent upon me to spoonfeed it to you.  You've been given information and it's up to you to decide what to do with it--heed it, check it out, or discard it.  Your call.

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8 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

To some extent, that's true, but assuming you use the first 2-3 rounds on some stud RB/WRs, you're really not missing much at RB or WR by taking Watson in the 4th that you can't approximate with other RB/WRs available in the 5th-8th rounds.

 

For instance, WRs with a 4th-round ADP are Hilton, Diggs, Fitzgerald, Gordon and Cooper.  If you take Watson instead, you still have guys like Robinson, Thomas, Jeffery, Juju and Cooks in the 5th, and even top-15 guys like Marvin Jones, Edelman and Garcon available even later.  If you miss out on Mixon, Collins and Drake at RB, you can just go with Ajayi, Penny or Ingram later and be no worse off.

 

So there's really little to no downside to drafting Watson.

Could say the same for Rodgers every single year. 

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2 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Could say the same for Rodgers every single year. 

 

And it's been proven almost every year to not be worth taking him in the early rounds.

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2 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Could say the same for Rodgers every single year. 

 

Except that Rodgers wasn't even the #1 QB in 2012 (#2), 2013 (#22), 2015 (#7) or 2017 (#29).

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

And it's been proven almost every year to not be worth taking him in the early rounds.

I don't know if that's necessarily true. I've often found rounds 3 and 4 to be extremely polarized concerning end of season numbers. Just looking back to last year shows this. 

 

Dez, Pryor, Amari Cooper, TY Hilton, Lynch, Crowell, TY Montgomery, Mixon were all in that range last year. 

 

So were Fournette, McCaffrey, Hunt, Keenan, and Hopkins. 

 

Theres not a lot of middle ground in there. If you really like a 3rd round WR/RB, then fire it up. You might be getting a top 5 guy. If not though, Rodgers is a solid pick(assuming he doesn't lose the season to an injury of course).

 

 

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