RMJ_12

2018 Biggest Busts

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Just now, Axe Elf said:

 

Ok, so the past matters, or it doesn't matter...?  I'm confused now.

Using college to judge a player that has a solid sample to judge off in the NFL is absolutely ridiculous. 

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5 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Hmmm. 

 

Watson currently has an ADP of 3.10. How many top 5 RBs do you think are available in that range? 

I going to guess 5 or less.

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33 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

This thread is absolutely terrible.

 

Thanks, we were waiting for your verdict.  Time to close down the shop, boys

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4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Using college to judge a player that has a solid sample to judge off in the NFL is absolutely ridiculous. 

 

But... but... you just got through saying that the dangers of recency bias meant that we had to look further into the past for guidance...?

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For you Watson doubters, go back and watch the Houston at Seattle game from last season.  Then report back here, changed men, one and all.

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1 hour ago, Axe Elf said:

 

But... but... you just got through saying that the dangers of recency bias meant that we had to look further into the past for guidance...?

In the NFL for data that is available in large quantities. You must be trolling because a self proclaimed fantasy savant can’t be this clueless.

 

1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

For you Watson doubters, go back and watch the Houston at Seattle game from last season.  Then report back here, changed men, one and all.

I saw that game in person and he was great but one game isn’t the way to judge a player. I like Watson and not a lot of people are doubting him. He’s just not the best QB in football. 

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5 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I saw that game in person and he was great but one game isn’t the way to judge a player. I like Watson and not a lot of people are doubting him. He’s just not the best QB in football. 

We are not in search of the best quarterback in football.  We are looking for the guy who puts up the most fantasy points.  If he stays healthy, that could be Watson.

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16 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

So if he just averages 27.3 PPG he's not worth drafting in the 3rd or 4th?

 

Don't play stupid word games with me, man. The spirit of my statement was that unless you believe he will consistently outperform the next-best QB by a significant margin, he won't be worth taking super early. That should have been pretty clear to anybody whose agenda wasn't contradicted by what I said.

 

I'll say again that I have Watson in my dynasty league and I hope he proves me wrong, but I just don't think it's realistic to expect him to sustain last season's fantasy production on a longer-term basis.

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1 hour ago, JJRules said:

Don't play stupid word games with me, man. The spirit of my statement was that unless you believe he will consistently outperform the next-best QB by a significant margin, he won't be worth taking super early. That should have been pretty clear to anybody whose agenda wasn't contradicted by what I said.

 

I'll say again that I have Watson in my dynasty league and I hope he proves me wrong, but I just don't think it's realistic to expect him to sustain last season's fantasy production on a longer-term basis.

 

Don't play stupid with me, man.  The spirit of my endorsement is that he will consistently outperform the next-best QB by a significant margin, or I wouldn't be advocating taking him super early.  That should have been pretty clear to anybody.

 

And it should be pretty clear that he doesn't HAVE to outperform the field by 10-15 pts per week (although it's possible); if he just outperforms the field by 3-4 pts per week he's still an asset worth drafting whenever you need to do so to make sure he's not on anyone else's team.

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7 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

And it should be pretty clear that he doesn't HAVE to outperform the field by 10-15 pts per week (although it's possible); if he just outperforms the field by 3-4 pts per week he's still an asset worth drafting whenever you need to do so to make sure he's not on anyone else's team.

You're quite a joke, man.  I'm convinced you're just trolling everybody now.

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You're quite a joke, man.  I'm convinced you're just trolling everybody now.

 

Well that's the baseline data--that Watson outperforms every other QB by 10 pts per week, and the "field" average of QB1s by about 15 pts per week.  Whether or not you believe he can maintain a similar level of production is a matter where there is room for a legitimate difference of opinion--but you can't say that it's ridiculous to suggest that it might happen when it's already happened in the only games that Watson took the field as a rookie.

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I dont think anyone has mentioned Brandin Cooks. Easy DND for me. I wont be surprised if he's not a top 30 WR this season.

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12 minutes ago, Evincar said:

I dont think anyone has mentioned Brandin Cooks. Easy DND for me. I wont be surprised if he's not a top 30 WR this season.

What is it with that dude? It's like the league is playing Hot Potato with him, and the last one holding him has to give him a huge contract. 

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I don't know how Mckinnon's name isn't all over this thread. This dude is being touted like he's the next big thing, despite the fact that he's not a good running back. 

 

[Hot Take Alert]

 

Mckinnon is not particularly good at playing football. He's a great athlete. He's really fast. He'll break an awesome long run once or twice a season. Other than that, he's just bad. 

 

Over the last 2 years, he's carried the ball 309 times for 3.58 YPC. Pretty meh. 

 

Compare that to players in similar roles over the past 2 seasons: 

 

Billal Powell 4.83 YPC on 309 carries

Dion Lewis - 4.83 YPC on 244 carries

Tevin Coleman - 4.18 YPC on 274 carries

Duke Johnson - 4.55 YPC on 155 carries

Gio Bernard - 4.05 YPC on 196 carries

Theo Riddick - 3.65 YPC on 176 carries

Jalen Richard - 5.5 YPC on 139 carries

Chris Thompson - 4.92 YPC on 132 carries

 

 

Etc. etc... I get that some of those guys didn't have quite the same workload as McKinnon, but they all blow him out of the water in terms of effectiveness. Even Riddick has been better. I don't know how so many people are just assuming JM is going to be a workhorse back. He's pretty thoroughly proven he's not good at that. 

 

What's that? The coaching staff is talking him up... The same coaching staff that wouldn't shut up about Joe Williams last offseason. Please!

 

He's an exciting, but inefficient, complementary RB in the NFL. That's it. 

 

[Hot take over] 

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5 hours ago, ajs723 said:

The same coaching staff that wouldn't shut up about Joe Williams last offseason. Please!

 

Man, you couldn't be more wrong about that.  

 

Peter King published a piece about Shanahan pounding the table for Williams on draft day, which was accurate.  But when Williams arrived for the off-season program, he immediately put himself in Shanahan's and Lynch's dog houses.  It was then crickets on Williams from both Shanahan and Lynch all off-season, followed finally by Williams being hidden on IR all season so he could contemplate his bubble status and, hopefully, get his mind right.

 

Hot takes are bad enough.  But I don't know what to call them when it is easy to see that they are totally false.

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Man, you couldn't be more wrong about that.  

 

Peter King published a piece about Shanahan pounding the table for Williams on draft day, which was accurate.  But when Williams arrived for the off-season program, he immediately put himself in Shanahan's and Lynch's dog houses.  It was then crickets on Williams from both Shanahan and Lynch all off-season, followed finally by Williams being hidden on IR all season so he could contemplate his bubble status and, hopefully, get his mind right.

 

Hot takes are bad enough.  But I don't know what to call them when it is easy to see that they are totally false.

 

 

 

 

Yup, I messed that up. The fantasy community talked up Williams all off-season. He never showed anything after he was drafted.

This off-season though: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/06/12/kyle-shanahan-sings-the-praises-of-joe-williams/

 

That point not withstanding, I think the rest of my post was at least objectively accurate. I just don't trust this player, or situation, at all. I strongly feel that McKinnon is going to be at the top of the 2018 disappointments list by the end of the season. 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Yup, I messed that up. The fantasy community talked up Williams all off-season. He never showed anything after he was drafted.

This off-season though: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/06/12/kyle-shanahan-sings-the-praises-of-joe-williams/

 

That point not withstanding, I think the rest of my post was at least objectively accurate. I just don't trust this player, or situation, at all. I strongly feel that McKinnon is going to be at the top of the 2018 disappointments list by the end of the season. 

 

Fair enough.  The braintrust in San Francisco isn't infallible.  They wouldn't be the first to waste big money on an imprudent FA signing.

 

However, keep in mind that Shanahan's system seems capable of turning almost anyone who is at least a partial scheme fit into a productive RB.  Hyde was barely a scheme fit, and he produced well for the most part.  Maybe you can argue he is a way better player than McKinnon, but there is no denying that he was miscast.  By contrast, it is undeniable McKinnon is a supreme scheme fit (that's why they overpaid to sign him).  So for lots of folks, productive scheme + perfect fit + mediocre player still = fantasy success.

 

Maybe McKinnon doesn't outperform the other 2nd and 3rd RBs in PPR, but it really seems impossible that he wouldn't have a decent floor.  If he doesn't realize a lofty ceiling, is he a "bust" really?  Not sure.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder

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4 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Fair enough.  The braintrust in San Francisco isn't infallible.  They wouldn't be the first to waste big money on an imprudent FA signing.

 

However, keep in mind that Shanahan's system seems capable of turning almost anyone who is at least a partial scheme fit into a productive RB.  Hyde was barely a scheme fit, and he produced well for the most part.  Maybe you can argue he is a way better player than McKinnon, but there is no denying that he was miscast.  By contrast, it is undeniable McKinnon is a supreme scheme fit (that's why they overpaid to sign him).  So for lots of folks, productive scheme + perfect fit + mediocre player still = fantasy success.

 

Maybe McKinnon doesn't outperform the other 2nd and 3rd RBs in PPR, but it really seems impossible that he wouldn't have a decent floor.  If he doesn't realize a lofty ceiling, is he a "bust" really?  Not sure.

 

His pass catching will probably keep him serviceable in PPR, I guess. I just think he could be a guy who falls into a committee because of his ineffectiveness. 

 

Is he a scheme fit, sure. The point of my post was that, of all the RBs in the league who fit that mold, the Niners got the least effective of all of them. 

 

If this were Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, or Dion Lewis leading the Niners backfield, I'd be a lot more excited, because those guys have proven they can run the ball well. McKinnon has proven he can't. 

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Some that jump out:

 

Brandin Cooks-  Third team in the last three years and arguably with a lesser skilled QB.  Receivers on new teams take time to adjust.  Too many mouths to feed on that offense.

 

Alex Collins- Was never high pedigree back and was taken off the waiver wire last year.  Had many production opportunities with no Dixon and lack of receivers.  With Crabtree and others on board and Dixon back, there will be many other contributors in the Ravens offense.  One fumble into the season and Dixon (Ravens' prized pick few years ago) might get some shots

 

Jay Ajayi-  The Eagles utilize multiple backs.  I'd rather take Clement in the last round of the drafts than Ajayi at his adp

 

Jarvis Landry-  Not a fan of taking receivers on new teams, especially when there's a plethora of options.  

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Hate to say it but I'm adding Evan Engram.  5th ranked TE last year with 115 targets.  No way he comes close to that this year.

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54 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Hate to say it but I'm adding Evan Engram.  5th ranked TE last year with 115 targets.  No way he comes close to that this year.

 

Just looked and he is going in the 6th, so agreed completely.

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Also let me add tyreek Hill to eh bust list. Any rapport he had with Smith is now irrelevant and frankly I’m not convinced he’s a better wr than Watkins. Watkins has been played by injury but has still flashed great potential. Both WRs are deep threats too, but Watkins seems to be more than just that. Not sure I can say the same for Hill. 

 

Take this with a grain of salt though as I admittedly don’t know much about hill. However, the KC offense and Watkins are different stories 

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