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Ben Roethlisberger 2018 Outlook

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Just now, smeeze said:

It’s Ben > Fitz and it’s not particularly close.

 

100000000%. 

 

Fitz or Ben? Come on! ?

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For those comparing Ben to Fitz its not really that close. Fitz is scary to watch. He can have a 3-5 point game any given week. And he will at some point ROS and burn people. Ben has been pretty stable all year long. Look at his playoff schedule too. Probably the best out of all the QBS.

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4 minutes ago, smeeze said:

It’s Ben > Fitz and it’s not particularly close.

What i dont understand is cam being ranked super high this week by everyone, ben ranked like 10th, but just looking at this game and the individual matchups you would think ben would have a better game passing. also ben at home. i have cam and ben and i thought ben was the obvious choice...then i saw the rankings. still going w ben

i guess it's cam's rushing floor that always pads his weekly ranking

the steelers defense has really been coming on lately, the steelers run way more pass plays than the panthers, also run way more overall plays a game...

Edited by Cotton Jones

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5 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

For those comparing Ben to Fitz its not really that close. Fitz is scary to watch. He can have a 3-5 point game any given week. And he will at some point ROS and burn people. Ben has been pretty stable all year long. Look at his playoff schedule too. Probably the best out of all the QBS.

ben is one of the higher floor qb plays this season, fitz's floor is negative points, ben's ceiling is just as high as fitz's IMO and if you want to say i'm wrong that's fine, but the difference in their ceilings doesn't justify the risk inherent in the difference in their weekly floors...

all things being equal, of course (who the opposing team is, road/home, etc)

Edited by Cotton Jones
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35 minutes ago, Cotton Jones said:

What i dont understand is cam being ranked super high this week by everyone, ben ranked like 10th, but just looking at this game and the individual matchups you would think ben would have a better game passing. also ben at home. i have cam and ben and i thought ben was the obvious choice...then i saw the rankings. still going w ben

i guess it's cam's rushing floor that always pads his weekly ranking

the steelers defense has really been coming on lately, the steelers run way more pass plays than the panthers, also run way more overall plays a game...

Ben needs to throw for 100 more  yards to equal the 40 rushing yards cam's been averaging. If you are making odds. Its bold to project over 100 yards more in the air for mean projections because of game flow outcome odds.

 

Ben has only thrown for over 300 once in the past 5 weeks. 

 

That and the 2 point bump for a vulture rushing TD vs passing as a tiebreaker if you do think Ben will hit right around 100 more in the air.

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I think both teams move the ball and score tonight. Regardless, unless you’re carrying another big time quarterback I can’t imagine a scenario you’d want to bench Ben at home against a defense on a short week, especially one that’s been susceptible to the pass.

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36 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Ben needs to throw for 100 more  yards to equal the 40 rushing yards cam's been averaging. If you are making odds. Its bold to project over 100 yards more in the air for mean projections because of game flow outcome odds.

 

Ben has only thrown for over 300 once in the past 5 weeks. 

 

That and the 2 point bump for a vulture rushing TD vs passing as a tiebreaker if you do think Ben will hit right around 100 more in the air.

we get 6 for a pass or a run td, plus theres a long td bonus

odds are it comes out as a wash between ben and cam (in our scoring), but i think ben is the bet to throw the most td's thats really the difference for me

Edited by Cotton Jones

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I'm so sorry for anyone who benched him last night, but you were warned on this forum. The Panthers secondary is TRASH

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15 hours ago, jtbgator said:

 

Why?

 

Thanks for the nudge. Started Ben and was rewarded 

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Ok back to business. Week 11 ... at JAX. Is Ben matchup proof? I think so. J. Conner in protocol. Good or bad? More passing? Lack of running game limit passing game? Will Bell report and play? So complicated.

 

Jags D vs. opposing QB's past 4 weeks.

 

Week 5 KC: Mahomes 22/38, 313, 0/2

Week 6 DAL: Prescott 17/27, 183, 2/0

Week 7 HOU: Watson 12/24, 139, 1/0

Week 8 PHI: Wentz 21/30, 286, 3/1

 

Bonus stat: Week 2 NE: Brady 24/35, 234, 2/0

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1 minute ago, jtbgator said:

Ok back to business. Week 11 ... at JAX. Is Ben matchup proof? I think so. J. Conner in protocol. Good or bad? More passing? Lack of running game limit passing game? Will Bell report and play? So complicated.

 

Jags D vs. opposing QB's past 4 weeks.

 

Week 5 KC: Mahomes 22/38, 313, 0/2

Week 6 DAL: Prescott 17/27, 183, 2/0

Week 7 HOU: Watson 12/24, 139, 1/0

Week 8 PHI: Wentz 21/30, 286, 3/1

 

Bonus stat: Week 2 NE: Brady 24/35, 234, 2/0

 

I'm looking elsewhere. Most likely Goff against KC in Mexico City. Olé!

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58 minutes ago, jtbgator said:

Ok back to business. Week 11 ... at JAX. Is Ben matchup proof? I think so. J. Conner in protocol. Good or bad? More passing? Lack of running game limit passing game? Will Bell report and play? So complicated.

 

Jags D vs. opposing QB's past 4 weeks.

 

Week 5 KC: Mahomes 22/38, 313, 0/2

Week 6 DAL: Prescott 17/27, 183, 2/0

Week 7 HOU: Watson 12/24, 139, 1/0

Week 8 PHI: Wentz 21/30, 286, 3/1

 

Bonus stat: Week 2 NE: Brady 24/35, 234, 2/0

 

The biggest question mark for Jacksonville DEF will ironically be their offense, and how Leonard Fournette looks. If he's getting full carries and doesn't blow a hamstring then it will limit Ben's upside a bit, as the Jags will likely eat up a lot more clock running than they otherwise would. 

 

That said, I'm starting him next week anyway, don't have a better option and there's not many (any?) better 1-2 WR punches than AB and JuJu to throw to.

Edited by vercrazy

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1 hour ago, jtbgator said:

Ok back to business. Week 11 ... at JAX. Is Ben matchup proof? I think so. J. Conner in protocol. Good or bad? More passing? Lack of running game limit passing game? Will Bell report and play? So complicated.

 

Jags D vs. opposing QB's past 4 weeks.

 

Week 5 KC: Mahomes 22/38, 313, 0/2

Week 6 DAL: Prescott 17/27, 183, 2/0

Week 7 HOU: Watson 12/24, 139, 1/0

Week 8 PHI: Wentz 21/30, 286, 3/1

 

Bonus stat: Week 2 NE: Brady 24/35, 234, 2/0

 

Jax has seemed a little overrated to me this year so I'd be okay starting him again. Ben has looked awesome and that O-Line is playing really well. That being said, there probably are better options, so it depends on your roster. Personally, I'll probably start Watson, but I wouldn't have trouble playing Ben without other options

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I have Matt Ryan on my roster and I’m considering trading him to acquire Big Ben for the playoff run due to his great schedule. 

Matty Ice and Big Ben seem to be similarly prone to boom/bust performances. But the Steelers have a much better run game and a defence that is starting to play better; is there a chance Big Ben ends up with some low volume games down the stretch due to game plan/script? Whereas the Falcons defence is showing no signs of improving and their run game hasn’t been strong.

I love the potential of Big Ben’s Week 15 vs NE and 16 @ NO being potential shootouts vs poor pass defences. Should I make the move to get Ben?

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Jags have faced a bunch of s--- teams this year. The good QBs they’ve faced are Mahomes, Brady and Luck who put up 18, 18, and 22 fantasy points respectively. I’m willing to start Ben given the roll the Steelers are on right now and that he’s averaging 24 fantasy ppg 

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11 hours ago, Jk2314 said:

I have Matt Ryan on my roster and I’m considering trading him to acquire Big Ben for the playoff run due to his great schedule. 

Matty Ice and Big Ben seem to be similarly prone to boom/bust performances. But the Steelers have a much better run game and a defence that is starting to play better; is there a chance Big Ben ends up with some low volume games down the stretch due to game plan/script? Whereas the Falcons defence is showing no signs of improving and their run game hasn’t been strong.

I love the potential of Big Ben’s Week 15 vs NE and 16 @ NO being potential shootouts vs poor pass defences. Should I make the move to get Ben?

 

FWIW I had both and just traded away Ryan. I like Ben’s RoS schedule better and Ryan doesn’t have many good home matchups left. Also, you gotta take into account that the Falcon’s season could be effectively over pretty soon, and the Steeler’s have lots to play for.

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7 hours ago, Hops said:

Jags have faced a bunch of s--- teams this year. The good QBs they’ve faced are Mahomes, Brady and Luck who put up 18, 18, and 22 fantasy points respectively. I’m willing to start Ben given the roll the Steelers are on right now and that he’s averaging 24 fantasy ppg 

 

AJ Bouye is back in the JAX secondary. He's damn good. That will help that D along with having Fournette. Game in JAX as well.

 

That said, JAX D isn't what it used to be. Don't see a disasterous outing by Ben by any means but I also don't think his ceiling is too high. Probably hit his projection around 18-20 points. If you are projected to win, I'd roll with him. If you are an underdog, I wouldn't.

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JAX doesn't scare me. Ben's been solid all season, even on the road. I made the mistake of benching him a few weeks ago at BAL. Not again. Safe floor, high ceiling.

 

Fantasy Pro's Week 11 Primer:

 

Ben Roethlisberger: Watching Roethlisberger play on Thursday night was special, maybe the best I’ve ever seen him play. He was on-point all over the field, which is a big development because he hadn’t played the best football this year, despite his stats looking fine. He now heads out to play a reeling Jaguars defense that’s started to fall apart over the last month. While I didn’t want to concede that a two-game sample size should be taken to heart, it’s clear they’re no longer the defense you must avoid like the plague. While they aren’t a plus-matchup for most quarterbacks, they’re trending in the wrong direction. Over the last four games, they’ve allowed just 223.3 passing yards per game, but they’ve allowed nine touchdowns on just 110 pass attempts (8.2 percent), which make the overall results look very bad. They’ve allowed more than 30 points just one time this season, so it’s also not a matchup you need to attack, either. Roethlisberger played the better version of this defense last year, though he was just as Jekyll and Hyde as they’ve been. In their first meeting, he threw 55 passes for 312 yards, no touchdowns, and five interceptions. In their second meeting (in the playoffs), he threw 58 passes for 469 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception in a game where the Jaguars posted 45 points on them. Both of those games were in Pittsburgh. This is a very difficult game to project considering the hit-or-miss play on both sides of the ball. Knowing Roethlisberger tends to perform at a much lower level on the road, you shouldn’t feel pressured to play him as anything more than a low-end QB1/high-end QB2.

 

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1 hour ago, smeeze said:

 

FWIW I had both and just traded away Ryan. I like Ben’s RoS schedule better and Ryan doesn’t have many good home matchups left. Also, you gotta take into account that the Falcon’s season could be effectively over pretty soon, and the Steeler’s have lots to play for.

I have both & been playing the matchups with them all year. Ben’s ROS schedule is pretty juicy, but Ryan’s isn’t bad either. The home BAL matchup may be tough, but he should put up serious numbers on the road @NO & @CAR. That being said, I think I’m benching Ben this week @JAX, then next week @DEN. Then he probably won’t leave my lineup after that

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I agree with the point that the Falcons could be out of the wild card race if they lose a game in the next couple weeks and the Steelers should be going hard until the end of the season trying to get the best playoff position they can.

Now, looking at just weeks 15 and 16, which are what I’m most concerned about...15 - Ben is at home against the Pats which is a great match up with shootout potential, but it will also be full on winter in Pittsburgh at that time too, so that could be a snow game and QB play could be limited. 16 - @ the Saints is just a great match up all around, that should be 60 point o/u type game. But have to win week 15 first...

Whereas Ryan has Arizona at home...though a decent defence vs the pass, I like the Falcons at home to still put up points. Then 16 @ Carolina could be bad for Ryan, but no chance of a snow game and the panthers secondary has been bad...

Damn this is a tough call...

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2 hours ago, Jk2314 said:

I agree with the point that the Falcons could be out of the wild card race if they lose a game in the next couple weeks and the Steelers should be going hard until the end of the season trying to get the best playoff position they can.

Now, looking at just weeks 15 and 16, which are what I’m most concerned about...15 - Ben is at home against the Pats which is a great match up with shootout potential, but it will also be full on winter in Pittsburgh at that time too, so that could be a snow game and QB play could be limited. 16 - @ the Saints is just a great match up all around, that should be 60 point o/u type game. But have to win week 15 first...

Whereas Ryan has Arizona at home...though a decent defence vs the pass, I like the Falcons at home to still put up points. Then 16 @ Carolina could be bad for Ryan, but no chance of a snow game and the panthers secondary has been bad...

Damn this is a tough call...

AFAIK snow isn't really a problem, wind is the problem, and it has to be substantial to be a detriment, and even then it really just affects the kicking game and the deeper pass routes, which the steelers don't really need for ben to have a big game. i mean it's not good but it's not murder either, just depends on your other options at qb that week.

i think the only time snow is really a factor in making fantasy decisions is when it is insane 3 feet of snow like that colts @ bills game where mccoy scampered off for the td at the end. how often do those games happen? practically never

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