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J.T. Marlin

Dak Prescott 2018 Outlook

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Was a pretty much a disaster over the 2nd half of the 2017 season but it was pretty clear that his swoon coincided with Zeke's suspension after week 9.  Also, his 2 most awful games (and they were truly putrid) were weeks 10 & 11, where the team was also without All-Pro LT stud Tyron Smith.  

 

From weeks 1-9 (before the Zeke suspension) Dak was the #4 overall fantasy QB and tied for #3 per game with Wentz (only Deshaun and RWilson above him).

 

Currently going as QB20 per FFCalc & QB18 per MFL, he's a really nice value if you happen to think Dak will perform closer to his first half of 2017 than 2nd half.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Was a pretty much a disaster over the 2nd half of the 2017 season but it was pretty clear that his swoon coincided with Zeke's suspension after week 9.  Also, his 2 most awful games (and they were truly putrid) were weeks 10 & 11, where the team was also without All-Pro LT stud Tyron Smith.  

 

From weeks 1-9 (before the Zeke suspension) Dak was the #4 overall fantasy QB and tied for #3 per game with Wentz (only Deshaun and RWilson above him).

 

Currently going as QB20 per FFCalc & QB18 per MFL, he's a really nice value if you happen to think Dak will perform closer to his first half of 2017 than 2nd half.

 

I think he'll be closer to the 1st half than 2nd.   Things started to collapse once Tryon Smith went down.   He had very little time to make decisions.   And supposedly, they are putting in more plays to take advantage of his strengths.  So I think that means more quick routes and rolling out passes. 

 

And I don't think losing Dez hurts him.   He did fine his rookie year in the games Dez was out.  Last year he seemed to try to force it to Dez who rarely had separation. 

 

And they are reportedly wanting Zeke to catch more passes.   Could turn in to short passes with big yardage.

 

Edited by K197040
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I should also add that I don't think they'll be ahead very often and have one of the easier schedules vs passing defense.  

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47 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Was a pretty much a disaster over the 2nd half of the 2017 season but it was pretty clear that his swoon coincided with Zeke's suspension after week 9.  Also, his 2 most awful games (and they were truly putrid) were weeks 10 & 11, where the team was also without All-Pro LT stud Tyron Smith.  

 

From weeks 1-9 (before the Zeke suspension) Dak was the #4 overall fantasy QB and tied for #3 per game with Wentz (only Deshaun and RWilson above him).

 

Currently going as QB20 per FFCalc & QB18 per MFL, he's a really nice value if you happen to think Dak will perform closer to his first half of 2017 than 2nd half.

 

So things fell apart when he couldn’t hand it off all game and his OL was shaky? 

 

Thats because he sucks. No Dez, no Witten ... No thanks.

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35 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

I think he'll be closer to the 1st half than 2nd.   Things started to collapse once Tryon Smith went down.   He had very little time to make decisions.   And supposedly, they are putting in more plays to take advantage of his strengths.  So I think that means more quick routes and rolling out passes. 

 

And I don't think losing Dez hurts him.   He did fine his rookie year in the games Dez was out.  Last year he seemed to try to force it to Dez who rarely had separation. 

 

And they are reportedly wanting Zeke to catch more passes.   Could turn in to short passes with big yardage.

 

 

Losing Dez wont hurt that much but losing Witten will.

 

Im not really a big fan of Dak. He seems more like a game manager than a good QB. I think guys like Taylor, Manning or maybe even Trubusky are more appealing to me for late round QB targets.

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The nice thing about Dak is that he will be essentially free this year.  Unless you are playing in a league full of Cowboy fans.

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The Cowboys front office has surrounded Dak with elite talent and formidable weapons who will pose insane difficulty for defenses:

 

Terrance Williams = insanely elite

Allen Hurns = stunning & elite

Cole Beasley = crafty & elite

Michael Gallup = young and soon to be elite

Blain "Uncoverable" Jarwin = whoa

 

It'll be a 2016 repeat at 13-3

 

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4 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

So things fell apart when he couldn’t hand it off all game and his OL was shaky? 

 

Thats because he sucks. No Dez, no Witten ... No thanks.

 

Plenty of QB have supposedly "sucked" yet still put up QB1 fantasy worthy stats.  You may think he sucks but he's put up big fantasy #'s.  Dak basically costs you nothing in drafts and has 1.5 years of high end QB1 on his resume - and yes, losing arguably the best RB and LT in football had a big negative impact on his fantasy game.

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

 

Losing Dez wont hurt that much but losing Witten will.

 

Im not really a big fan of Dak. He seems more like a game manager than a good QB. I think guys like Taylor, Manning or maybe even Trubusky are more appealing to me for late round QB targets.

 

I was just saying that the end of last year isn’t indicative of what he should be.

 

If I’m waiting on QB, I think I’d go with Trubusky and Manning as well.  And maybe even Alex Smith who has a good O-line and easy schedule.  But I can see Dak putting up consistent decent numbers.  His running adds some value over most of these late guys as well

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Trubisky? 

 

Lol. Come on. You're hating to hate. 

 

I saw a game last year where he threw 3 straight passes to Dez in the end zone and didn't connect on any. It was a clear sign of him trying to force feed a guy. 

 

Granted, it wasn't all Dez fault. He threw a lot of bad passes. And even in my example I remember Dez being "open" for end zone standards and he simply sailed the pass. 

 

I don't think dak is great at being one of those types of QBs and I think defenses did catch up to him, but I still believe he can be very solid. 

 

And if you don't think having one of the leagues best RB's in the game to help open up play action was a factor... Well... It was. 

 

I see a guy like Alex Smith that just spreads it around to open guys and no one has a killer season besides zeke, but dak will definitely out produce his ADP IMO 

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12 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

The Cowboys front office has surrounded Dak with elite talent and formidable weapons who will pose insane difficulty for defenses:

 

Terrance Williams = insanely elite

Allen Hurns = stunning & elite

Cole Beasley = crafty & elite

Michael Gallup = young and soon to be elite

Blain "Uncoverable" Jarwin = whoa

 

It'll be a 2016 repeat at 13-3

 

 

With all that Hall of Fame talent how could they not go 16-0 and stroll to a lopsided Super Bowl victory? I wouldn't even show up if I had to line up against those guys.

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12 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

The Cowboys front office has surrounded Dak with elite talent and formidable weapons who will pose insane difficulty for defenses:

 

Terrance Williams = insanely elite

Allen Hurns = stunning & elite

Cole Beasley = crafty & elite

Michael Gallup = young and soon to be elite

Blain "Uncoverable" Jarwin = whoa

 

It'll be a 2016 repeat at 13-3

 

 

Only one that is actually accurate 

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Part of me wonders if Dez was bad for his game.  They obviously didnt connect but they were forcing balls his way despite this, perhaps to the detriment of the offense as a whole.    I dont love any of the current receivers, but there's at least useful guys in that group.   Its not impossible to think he can't spread it around and have a decent season without someone putting up WR1 or 2 stats.  Rushing stats will be necessary of course to make him productive.    

 

As stated above, he's essentially free.   I dont know that i'll target him, but if he's there at such a point that a faceplant season doesnt hurt my roster, he's worth a shot.   I do a 2 QB league, and he's a risky play there I think, but he's a fine backup if I can snag him for $2 in my one QB auction.   

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21 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

The Cowboys front office has surrounded Dak with elite talent and formidable weapons who will pose insane difficulty for defenses:

 

Terrance Williams = insanely elite

Allen Hurns = stunning & elite

Cole Beasley = crafty & elite

Michael Gallup = young and soon to be elite

Blain "Uncoverable" Jarwin = whoa

 

It'll be a 2016 repeat at 13-3

 

tumblr_inline_nhoelz3VBE1srzwfo.gif

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On 6/19/2018 at 4:53 PM, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

So things fell apart when he couldn’t hand it off all game and his OL was shaky? 

 

Thats because he sucks. No Dez, no Witten ... No thanks.

Gonna be hard to replace all of Witten's 500 yards from last season.

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One of the most underrated players this season.  Dez was either washed or playing hurt.  Witten was old and washed.  He still finished as #10-12 depending on your league.   His "losses" are extremely overblown.  Still a top 15 QB drafted as the 22nd off the board.

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I kind of agree that he's being underrated this year.  People say "no Dez, No Witten" but I don't think those guys gave you much last year any way.  Witten was a nice security blanket, but well past his prime.  And I think losing Dez might be an overall positive for the offense.  Now Zeke will be here for all 16.  I think people remember Dak's stretch from Week 8 onward.  From Week 8 on, he was very shaky.  Some really nice games in there (KC, NYG) but also some major duds (WAS, PHI, SEA in the title game).  But Dak's first 7 weeks of the season were spectacular.  

 

With Zeke for all 16, and hopefully an offense that plays to Dak's strengths, I think we see the QB from the first half of 2017, rather than the QB from the second half.  

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Dak sucks in real life. But could be a decent fantasy flyer in the late rounds for people that waitnon QB.

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3 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

I don’t see the fantasy potential for a guy who just lost Dez, Witten, isn’t that good in real life, and plays in a run first offense with a rag tag group of receivers

Dez....a guy that not a single NFL team wants, and a 70 year old TE don't seem like that much production lost from 2017.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Dez....a guy that not a single NFL team wants, and a 70 year old TE don't seem like that much production lost from 2017.

 

1. Dez has turned down several teams offers

2. Witten is not 70 years old (hilarious though). 

 

Both were 2 of the top 3 producers in the passing game last year, with Witten averaging 60+ receptions for Dak. 

 

No TE replacement for a “security blanket”/future HOFer ... and his WR corp is - best case scenario - mediocre.

 

Theres also the fact Dak isn’t a good QB, but that’s a whole other story

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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4 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

1. Dez has turned down several teams offers

2. Witten is not 70 years old (hilarious though). 

 

Both were 2 of the top 3 producers in the passing game last year, with Witten averaging 60+ receptions for Dak. 

 

No TE replacement for a “security blanket”/future HOFer ... and his WR corp is - best case scenario - mediocre.

Saying "Future HOF" is merely propping Witten up to make him look better.  Dude was falling off.  500 Yards and 5 TDs.  Its not that much production lost, and its not inconceivable to think that another TE can step up and get those same stats.

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I was curious so i gathered this up- posting without opinion.   Didnt feel like doing this post-suspension, but here's the line for Dak, Dez, and Witten before Zeke was gone:

 

Week 1 vs NYG:  Dak 268 passing, 24 rush, 1 TD, 0 INT    Dez 2-43,  Witten 7-59-1

Week 2 vs DEN: Dak  238 passing, 24 rush, 2 TD, 2 INT  Dez 7-59-1 Witten 10-97-1

Week 3 vs ARZ: Dak 183 passing, 16 rush, 3 TD (1 rush), 0 INT  Dez 2-12-1 Witten 1-3

Week 4 vs LAR:  Dak 252 passing, 25 rush, 3 TD, 1 INT  Dez 5-98 Witten 1-9

Week 5 vs GB: Dak 251 passing, 37 rush, 4 TD (1 rush), 1 INT  Dez 5-52-1 Witten 8-61

Week 7 vs SF:  Dak 234 passing 26 rush, 4 TD (1 rush), 0 INT  Dez 7-63-1 Witten 4-54-1

Week 8 vs WAS: (Zeke ran for 33-150 and Dallas won by two scores): Dak 143 pass, 16 rush, 0 TD, 0 INT  Dez 4-39 Witten 3-31

Week 9 vs KC: 249 pass, 27 rush, 3 TD (1 rush), 0 INT   Dez 6-73 Witten 1-5

 

6 of his 16 TD's, and 778 of his 1818 passing yards, in 8 games, went to Witten or Dez.       

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Saying "Future HOF" is merely propping Witten up to make him look better.  Dude was falling off.  500 Yards and 5 TDs.  Its not that much production lost, and its not inconceivable to think that another TE can step up and get those same stats.

 

Good luck with Dak - the mediocre at best reality QB who actually had 25% of his weeks in single digit fantasy points last year (including 1 negative week) - and now playing without 2 of his top 3 options. 

 

Hurns, Gallup, Beasley, Tavon, no TE, run first offense - yeah, lots of upside with that group.

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