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J.T. Marlin

2018 NBA Offseason and Free Agency Thread

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10 minutes ago, hoopking said:

Melo to rockets on $2.4mil yesterday. thoughts? is he possible for 2 3s / 15-20 ppg and some rebs? 

 

I'm expecting 17 and 6 , similar to last year, with 2.5 threes on 45/83. His percentages were uncharacteristically low last year playing in okc which killed his value.

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19 minutes ago, young_styler said:

 

I'm expecting 17 and 6 , similar to last year, with 2.5 threes on 45/83. His percentages were uncharacteristically low last year playing in okc which killed his value.

 

SO that would put him around 14th round again which is waiver wire material.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

 

SO that would put him around 14th round again which is waiver wire material.

17/6/2.5 with 45% and 83% is significantly better than 14th round value depending on how many stocks he gets and what his turnovers are.  If his turnovers are under 1.5 and he can get 2 assists with .7/.7 then he would be ranked 60-75.  Those are the assumptions I’m making, put those numbers into BBM.

 

edit: or just look at comps.  Lauri M was slightly worse in almost every category I mentioned above and he finished 63rd in the player rater.  If Melo hits those numbers he absolutely will be top 75 or better.  

Edited by StifleTower2
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Posted (edited)

His main competitors are only Tucker and Anderson. If he plays well (I think he will be in D'Antoni's system and with CP3), he might end up playing more minutes than most people think. Definitely worth a gamble in later rounds.

Edited by littlesamtung
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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

17/6/2.5 with 45% and 83% is significantly better than 14th round value depending on how many stocks he gets and what his turnovers are.  If his turnovers are under 1.5 and he can get 2 assists with .7/.7 then he would be ranked 60-75.  Those are the assumptions I’m making, put those numbers into BBM.

 

edit: or just look at comps.  Lauri M was slightly worse in almost every category I mentioned above and he finished 63rd in the player rater.  If Melo hits those numbers he absolutely will be top 75 or better.  

 

Only reason I say that is, I don’t think he is going to shoot 45%. That’s just me personally. Last year he put up 16/5/2.2 at 40% which put him at 10th round. That is with Westbrook & George. So we expecting similar numbers at a better efficiency with Paul & Harden? The Rockets run a faster pace than the Thunder so there will be more pull up jumpers in transition and probably more Iso-Melo/Harden.

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1 minute ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

 

Only reason I say that is, I don’t think he is going to shoot 45%. That’s just me personally. Last year he put up 16/5/2.2 at 40% which put him at 10th round. That is with Westbrook & George. So we expecting similar numbers at a better efficiency with Paul & Harden? The Rockets run a faster pace than the Thunder so there will be more pull up jumpers in transition and probably more Iso-Melo/Harden.

Admittedly my assumptions are not that confident which is why I didn’t pick him that early in the mock.  So if your assumptions are different then that’s different input so it will change the output. You could be right.  

 

However, if Young Stylers assumptions are correct then it means that he will be top 60-75 depending on what his precise production is.  I was just objecting to you saying it would he wouldn’t be 14th round value with Stylers projection.  

 

He may very well be 14th round value but he’ll be much better if he meets Stylers projections or comes close.  

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7 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Admittedly my assumptions are not that confident which is why I didn’t pick him that early in the mock.  So if your assumptions are different then that’s different input so it will change the output. You could be right.  

 

However, if Young Stylers assumptions are correct then it means that he will be top 60-75 depending on what his precise production is.  I was just objecting to you saying it would he wouldn’t be 14th round value with Stylers projection.  

 

He may very well be 14th round value but he’ll be much better if he meets Stylers projections or comes close.  

 

Which is true. Carmelo was dang near waiver material last season. I don’t see him jumping up 4 rounds because of D’antoni. He was terrible in NY too with d’antoni and now they have better players. I would be happy if Carmelo took as many shots as Ariza per game which should be no more than 12ish. 

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I appreciate the contrarian opinions and they're very logical, but I'm in the camp that Melo and his chucking, lack of passing and lack of defensive stats make him undraftable at his ADP. Think the points are lower than Stifle expects too. I hope I'm wrong though, OKC Melo is the most painful dude in the league to watch, but he's great when he's unguardable on offense and mediocre on defense. 

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57 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

 

Only reason I say that is, I don’t think he is going to shoot 45%. That’s just me personally. Last year he put up 16/5/2.2 at 40% which put him at 10th round. That is with Westbrook & George. So we expecting similar numbers at a better efficiency with Paul & Harden? The Rockets run a faster pace than the Thunder so there will be more pull up jumpers in transition and probably more Iso-Melo/Harden.

Carmelo's FG% the last 5 years: 45.2, 44.4, 43.3, 43.3, 40.4 (38.4 last three months). Is he really getting the FG's back to 45%? 

 

His 9-cat ranking over that time: 7, 29, 37, 60, 120 (158) 

 

A pattern seems to be emerging . . .  

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10 minutes ago, Kaboom said:

Carmelo's FG% the last 5 years: 45.2, 44.4, 43.3, 43.3, 40.4 (38.4 last three months). Is he really getting the FG's back to 45%? 

 

His 9-cat ranking over that time: 7, 29, 37, 60, 120 (158) 

 

A pattern seems to be emerging . . .  

 

I say 45% is possible, maybe not probable, but I'm basing it on him playing with cp3 and harden who can create more open looks for him as opposed to Donovan's Westbrook dominant "system" if you can even call it that.

 

He didn't succeed in dantoni's system before but this time around he won't be the main focus of it like he was in NY. It's also hard for me not to see him being a lot happier playing alongside his buddy CP3, which should keep him more engaged.

 

I'm not expecting top 50 numbers or anything but I'm definitely expecting him to be more efficient in a friendlier system. I'm expecting a finish of around 7-8 round production. 

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I didn’t say I thought he would hit 45%, I only said that IF he hit that number, and hit the rest of Styler’s projections that he would be a 60-75 ranked player.  

 

He certainly has the potential for 17ppg.  The warriors have proven that a big 3 can average 70+ppg.  Assuming Harden scores 30 ppg and Paul scores his typical 18ppg, if Melo averages 17ppg that’s only 65 total.  I think it’s a possibility at least.  

 

Also, everyone assumes he’s fighting Tucker for minutes when I think he’s really fighting Anderson for minutes.  They need Tucker for his defense and they can’t run both Melo and Anderson at the same time.  So I think Melo will get both minutes at the 3 and 4.  With that assumption I think his numbers will look better because Tucker and Capela won’t compete with him for shots.

 

The DAntoni system will help a little with pace.  But that’s not the biggest change.  I think CP3 is hugely underrated due to his injury history, age, and lack of deep playoff runs.  However, I also think that he’s the best pass first point guard in the game, and I think metrics bear that out.  I know that Melo is getting older and declining but I am also inclined to think that last year was somewhat of an outlier.  He’s never going to be prime Melo again but he can at least do better than last year.  He’s going from one of the most toxic point guards in the NBA to the most selfless.  Of course his numbers will go up.  I don’t know by how much but I strongly believe he will be better than last year.  

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The thing is that both Harden and CP3 command the ball a lot (although they play well with each other, and their minutes are staggered).

This is not GSW where everyone plays without the ball flawlessly.

 

Houston NEEDS a 3-D wing as a starter and Melo would at best fit in the second unit, which from his attitudes is not likely something he wants.

Tucker is arguably much better as a starter and will likely be a better closer for the team.

 

Iso days are over for Melo and without stocks I fail to see him cracking the top 100, don't see his FG creeping north of 42%.

 

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On 2018/7/15 at 12:08 AM, RedDogNamedClippers said:

 

Play somewhere like where (Boston?). I get that he is highly conveted but what I mean by ego is this. You’re playing with a Top 5 C in the league, Top Coach (Thibs). You short change yourself now to hope (and the key here is hope) to get a bigger/ better deal. The problem is, there is going to be other players who will also be looking for the same thing. So let’s say a scenario plays out, where Boston gets Kawhi, Kyrie goes somewhere and Love gets traded. Now you’re still available but the money options is shorter because the teams you was hoping to go to, spent money elsewhere. Like what happened this year, money and the market dries up and you got players like IT2, Capela & Parker looking for 1 year deals or short deals looking to try to hit a homer in next go round.

 

Wirh the amount of money professional atheletes r making now a days, I don't think Mr. Butler would put $$$ as no.1 proiority here, he probably is not happy with the t.wolves right now, or the casts around him. He and Kyrie teamed up in NYC is my guess. Go Knicks!!!! 

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Been a Melo owner for years in multiple leagues. Only way he is good is if he’s the main guy and jacking shots every play 

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4 hours ago, blob2004 said:

The thing is that both Harden and CP3 command the ball a lot (although they play well with each other, and their minutes are staggered).

This is not GSW where everyone plays without the ball flawlessly.

 

Houston NEEDS a 3-D wing as a starter and Melo would at best fit in the second unit, which from his attitudes is not likely something he wants.

Tucker is arguably much better as a starter and will likely be a better closer for the team.

 

Iso days are over for Melo and without stocks I fail to see him cracking the top 100, don't see his FG creeping north of 42%.

 

I think they will start Tucker and Melo at the 4.  Melo is done but Ryno is super done, finished, beat.  

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On 7/23/2018 at 7:32 PM, Gile Pile said:

Every team with younger core (Lakers. Wolves, Nuggets) will improve, I agree with that.  Will  Lakers FAs pickups , other than LeBron, contribute more than last year?  I don't believe they will, I guess we will see.  Assuming there are no season ending  injuries to key players, Rockets, Warriors and  OKC are lock to make playoffs.  That leaves Spurs,  Jazz, OKC, Portland, Denver,  New Orleans and Lakers for the last 6 spots  ( Memphis and Dallas are not that far behind).  IMO Lakers, Memphis and Dallas are missing playoffs. Memphis and Dallas  because they are not good enough, Lakers because they have McGee as starter.  

 

We will see next spring who  is right and who is wrong.  Until then, let's agree to disagree

Um, if OKC are a lock to make the playoffs, then so are the Lakers. Hell, I'd be willing to bet the Lakers end up with more wins in their 2nd half of the season than OKC does.

 

You're discounting the best player in the NBA. There's no way Portland or New Orleans end the regular season above the Lakers. Vegas has Houston and LA having the same odds to win the NBA championship.

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3 hours ago, Apollo_87 said:

Um, if OKC are a lock to make the playoffs, then so are the Lakers. Hell, I'd be willing to bet the Lakers end up with more wins in their 2nd half of the season than OKC does.

 

You're discounting the best player in the NBA. There's no way Portland or New Orleans end the regular season above the Lakers. Vegas has Houston and LA having the same odds to win the NBA championship.

I think NOLA could definitely finish above the Lakers even if I don't expect them to, mostly in agreement with this post though.

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Vince Carter to the hawks for a 1 year vet min..

 

Interesting choice. I would of though a championship team would of been more on the mind. The young core of Atlanta will benefit from his mentorship and experience though 

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Manu hanging it up. I know this day has been coming but he was the last piece of the Spurs Big 3. With that, it's the end of an era in SanAn. As a Laker fan I didn't like them, but I sure did respect them. Actually, it's kind of sad to see them broken up. They were the model of consistency and a franchise to look to for how to do things the right way. Big 3 gone, Kawhi traded, Pop probably retiring soon, wonder how this will look for the Spurs in a few years.

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booker out indefinitely. man, who will distribute on that sun's team?

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Booker should be back before the regular season. But maybe not. It just makes things that much more urgent that that Suns go out and get  PG. I'm thinking Patrick Beverley. Or a veteran 2 guard if Booker it the main ball handler this year. Suns need to get a veteran guard regardless.

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