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Trench Mob

Trae Young 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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Posted (edited)

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Strengths & Weaknesses Source: Youtube / ESPN / DraftExpress - 

 

 

 

College Stats Source: Fox Sports -

 

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Projected category boost - Points, Assist, 3's, and Steals.

 

Potential harmful categories - FG% and Turnovers.

 

Estimated ADP - Between Round 4 and Round 5.

 

 

Edited by Trench Mob

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I'm not a fan of Trae. His A/T ratio shows that he is not a PG, soso as a SG. And if his % dip further in NBA as expected, his fantasy value will be very ugly.

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1 hour ago, Auction>Snake said:

Best rookie choice in redraft leagues alongside JJJ 

lolno, JJJ isn't even going to get big minutes early, if at all this year, he's incredibly raw. The value of these guys should more or less follow where they went in the draft. Young will get 0 defensive stats, and volume guys can be dangerous for efficiency categories as rookies. If I was going to reach for rookies I'd take Ayton and Doncic before him 100x/100.

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round 4 or 5 is way too high for him, i wouldnt take him above round 8

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5 hours ago, miasma16 said:

lolno, JJJ isn't even going to get big minutes early, if at all this year, he's incredibly raw. The value of these guys should more or less follow where they went in the draft. Young will get 0 defensive stats, and volume guys can be dangerous for efficiency categories as rookies. If I was going to reach for rookies I'd take Ayton and Doncic before him 100x/100.

Who's getting in JJJ's way for minutes, name one player? The foul trouble may persist that's the only thing that will affect his minutes. And the same with Trae once Dennis is inevitably traded. Both teams will likely tank again which only helps their case.

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6 hours ago, aomine said:

round 4 or 5 is way too high for him, i wouldnt take him above round 8

 

Think about how terrible the Hawks are. He simply won't be there. He'll probably have the same workload like he did in Oklahoma.

 

9 hours ago, miasma16 said:

If I was going to reach for rookies I'd take Ayton and Doncic before him 100x/100.

 

Ayton and Young for me. The only two rookies worth it.

 

I'm not convinced on Doncic like most people are. It might come back and bite me, it might not.

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13 hours ago, littlesamtung said:

I'm not a fan of Trae. His A/T ratio shows that he is not a PG, soso as a SG. And if his % dip further in NBA as expected, his fantasy value will be very ugly.

 

Completely agree.  As a big 12 fan I watched him up close and personal.  Tiny in stature and even moreso with those alligator arms.  He was an efficiency nightmare as big 12 defenses clamped down on him.  Look at the fg% as the big 12 season wore on.  Too slow and small to get quality shots off against big 12 defenses.  His lack of size and athleticism will be magnified even more against NBA defenders.  I don't think he will be a complete bust by the way, but the Steph Curry comps are unrealistic and unfair.  I see him more of a Seth Curry instead of Stephen, which is still a very useful NBA player.  But for sure a bust vis-a-vis his draft position, due to his limitations I would have drafted him in the late teens or early 2nd round.

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8 hours ago, Auction>Snake said:

Who's getting in JJJ's way for minutes, name one player? 

JJJ

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He's going to make or break teams. His risk/reward hype is on a level that will cause him to go way to high to be worth the risk. For those teams that take him, if he busts they're screwed.

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I wouldn't take the risk on him until round 8 or 9. There's just some real value you can get in those rounds. That being said he stands a solid chance to scroe 15 a game hitting two 3s a game but the FG% is gonna be a killer and we all know it. 

 

Even if you think he's gonna be good he will have a number of nights when he shoots 3/15. Remember Donovan Mitchell had games like that this year and Trae is not as good as him. I'm taking Doncic over him for sure. I'm not a hater it's just very rare that these rookies we all love coming into the draft finish top 50-60. KAT, Mitchell, and Simmons are the exception not the expectation.

 

 

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19 hours ago, Spyplane said:

He's going to make or break teams. His risk/reward hype is on a level that will cause him to go way to high to be worth the risk. For those teams that take him, if he busts they're screwed.

 

Go big or go home. That's the only language I know in fantasy. 

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On 6/24/2018 at 2:28 AM, Auction>Snake said:

Who's getting in JJJ's way for minutes, name one player? The foul trouble may persist that's the only thing that will affect his minutes. And the same with Trae once Dennis is inevitably traded. Both teams will likely tank again which only helps their case.

I think the thing you are forgetting is that as of today, like right this minute, JJJ just isn't that great of a player. He has a ton of potential, but to just throw him out there and think he thrives in the NBA is asking a lot. He could be serviceable as a late round flyer for blocks, but he isn't going to be the next great fantasy rookie IMO. His player rater might be higher than his real life value because I think his volume is going to hurt you. Depending on how things shake out in Orlando, Bamba could be more intriguing than JJJ this year. But if you want stats this season, Ayton and Bagley are probably where you need to look for bigs.  

 

I actually like Trae Young's outlook. Defenses adjusted to that roster as the season went on. It is so difficult for a player to adjust to defensive focus/double teams and still try to get theirs when their teammates are terrible. You can't just look at his efficiency from last year and extrapolate that forward. Potentially being surrounded by Dedom, Baze, Prince, and Collins isn't awesome, but those guys are becoming decent NBA options. I don't like him in the 4/5 round range. Probably closer to the 8 round area and only if he fits the build I have. 

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1 minute ago, Trench Mob said:

 

Go big or go home. That's the only language I know in fantasy. 

That is a terrible language. You should try to learn "taking calculated risks" or "risk/reward calculations" because those are way better languages for fantasy. 

 

33 minutes ago, greatestmetfan said:

I wouldn't take the risk on him until round 8 or 9. There's just some real value you can get in those rounds. That being said he stands a solid chance to scroe 15 a game hitting two 3s a game but the FG% is gonna be a killer and we all know it. 

 

Even if you think he's gonna be good he will have a number of nights when he shoots 3/15. Remember Donovan Mitchell had games like that this year and Trae is not as good as him. I'm taking Doncic over him for sure. I'm not a hater it's just very rare that these rookies we all love coming into the draft finish top 50-60. KAT, Mitchell, and Simmons are the exception not the expectation.

 

 

Exactly this. You can even add CP3 and Lebron to this list and it would still be the same. Catching the breakout rookie will not make your season. Anyone who says owning KAT or Mitchell in their rookie season was required to win their league is just making an excuse. @greatestmetfan I believe you are extremely conservative on rookies. Probably as far to that side of the spectrum as one can possibly be. I would venture to guess that approach hasn't held you back from competing in your leagues. 

 

Rookies are like a biotech stock. Everyone thinks it is soooo lucrative to invest in that sector because 1 in 75 breakout. But in reality, the journey is tough and most don't pan out in their "rookie" year. Look at Mitchell last year. Dude was dropped in a ton of leagues AND he broke out. People couldn't even weather the early season storm to get to the promised land because a rookie struggling is absolutely zero fun, especially when they shoot 3/15.  

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54 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

 

Go big or go home. That's the only language I know in fantasy. 

I'm not going big on this one. No thanks.

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Quote

GM Travis Schlenk and new coach Lloyd Pierce said they expect starting point guard Dennis Schroder to remain with the team and share time with rookie Trae Young.

Schroder made some surprising comments during a press conference in Germany last month that intimated he would prefer to be traded. However, Schlenk said he talked with Schroder about the quotes and Schroder claims "they just took snippets of his answers." Pierce said Schroder is on board with the direction the Hawks are headed. "Talking to Dennis, he’s excited," Pierce said. "He was excited about who we were going to end up with in the draft and he’s excited about where we’re headed."
 
 
Jun 26 - 11:27 AM

 

Lulz

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58 minutes ago, BetterCallHinkie said:

 

Lulz

Aka Schroder's trade value is so tanked, nobody wants him. Oh well. Makes Trae into a pretty unattractive backup PG in the early part of the year, and a stash in the latter. He's pretty DND for me in standard leagues, as he should have borderline seasonlong numbers and will still get drafted in the 9th-10th round, maybe even higher. 

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On 6/25/2018 at 1:08 PM, thezing1 said:

That is a terrible language. You should try to learn "taking calculated risks" or "risk/reward calculations" because those are way better languages for fantasy. 

 

Exactly this. You can even add CP3 and Lebron to this list and it would still be the same. Catching the breakout rookie will not make your season. Anyone who says owning KAT or Mitchell in their rookie season was required to win their league is just making an excuse. @greatestmetfan I believe you are extremely conservative on rookies. Probably as far to that side of the spectrum as one can possibly be. I would venture to guess that approach hasn't held you back from competing in your leagues. 

 

Rookies are like a biotech stock. Everyone thinks it is soooo lucrative to invest in that sector because 1 in 75 breakout. But in reality, the journey is tough and most don't pan out in their "rookie" year. Look at Mitchell last year. Dude was dropped in a ton of leagues AND he broke out. People couldn't even weather the early season storm to get to the promised land because a rookie struggling is absolutely zero fun, especially when they shoot 3/15.  

@thezing1 I am 100% against drafting rookies before round 7-8 lol. Where people grabbed fultz, lonzo early I grabbed Dario Saric, then drafted Tatum round 12. My mentality is proven players win leagues and it's worked out pretty well. I mean Mitchell was picked up in my league last year and Malik Monk/Josh Jackson were drafted that just shows you how confusing rookie classes can be. 

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2 hours ago, greatestmetfan said:

@thezing1 I am 100% against drafting rookies before round 7-8 lol. Where people grabbed fultz, lonzo early I grabbed Dario Saric, then drafted Tatum round 12. My mentality is proven players win leagues and it's worked out pretty well. I mean Mitchell was picked up in my league last year and Malik Monk/Josh Jackson were drafted that just shows you how confusing rookie classes can be. 

I'll take rookies earlyish if they show out in Summer League, that's how I got Lillard for way cheaper than he should've went, but you and I and plenty of other people can probably agree that almost all rookies are too expensive on draft day every single year

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Jeremy Lin should be the unquestioned starter now. Rip.

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1 hour ago, Trench Mob said:

Jeremy Lin should be the unquestioned starter now. Rip.

 

Unless the Hawks flip Schroder, wouldn't be surprised to see a Trae/Lin backcourt, atleast for the first half of the season

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I personally wouldn’t draft him before round 10 because of efficiency question marks, but I like his long term outlook. He’s got unlimited range and a very good passer. I think he’ll grow stronger/more athletic as he gets older, making his life easier than it’ll be starting out. 

 

I will also say that I’d be incredibly surprised if Young doesn’t see 25+ minutes per game over the course of this season. The Hawks don’t have the intention or talent to compete, which means they’ll have to find some way to gets fans in the seats. Young brings the hype and energy the Hawks can sell, which to me says he’ll be seeing some major minutes early, regardless of Lin and what they do with Schroeder (who doesn’t want to be in Atlanta, and who the Hawks have no intention of keeping). 

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12 hours ago, Trench Mob said:

Jeremy Lin should be the unquestioned starter now. Rip.

not a trae young fan, but uh, no.

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I have to assume that the Hawks trade Schroder now but if they don't I have no way to predict what is going to be happening at PG this season lol. I'm a little confused on what the plan is over there, but they have some good young plays in Young, Collins, and Prince. Very curious what lineups will look like and what they do rest of the offseason. 

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50 minutes ago, greatestmetfan said:

I have to assume that the Hawks trade Schroder now but if they don't I have no way to predict what is going to be happening at PG this season lol. I'm a little confused on what the plan is over there, but they have some good young plays in Young, Collins, and Prince. Very curious what lineups will look like and what they do rest of the offseason. 

Trae Young will be starting sooner rather than later. The Hawks have nothing to play for outside of ticket sales. Outside of that, I don't know what they'll do either. I think if they were going to receive anything of value for Schroder, they would've gotten it a month ago. He either stays or they dump him for next to nothing. I think the latter is more likely. 

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