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DeAndre Ayton 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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waiting for people in KAT thread to say they will trade KAT for Ayton!

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22 minutes ago, RonnieRonaldo said:

Get used to the garbage time buckets, Igor loves playing the starters down 20!

 

 

What do you expect, the last 42 minutes of Suns games are typically garbage time.

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15 hours ago, sya said:

waiting for people in KAT thread to say they will trade KAT for Ayton!

 

I literally was just offered KAT and Evan Turner for my Ayton and Gallinari.   Pretty ridiculous at first glance...

 

Their stats match up closely other than blocks, but Ayton seems like he has room to grow in that cat.  He'll out assist KAT, too but obviously KAT has proven he is a lock for Top 5, probably #2 or #3. With the Jimmy Butler issue messing with KAT, it's making me hesitant.  How sure are we that Butler is outta there at, or before the All-Star break?  

 

Earlier in this thread I said I was holding Ayton for at least a month to get a good feel for  his value, but I don't see why any Ayton owners should be hesitating to accept big offers like this.  I owned KAT his rookie season, and Porzingas.  Kept KAT, traded Porzingis with a "sell high" offer, and regretted it.  Most top pick rookies can string together some really fantastic lines, but to keep it up over a full season is a different story.  

 

How do other Ayton owners feel about this being a "sell high" moment?  Now that Booker is out for at least a couple weeks, we don't know how this will affect Ayton's production.  Could be that he takes over the offense, with huge numbers and a dip in efficiency, or he could seriously struggle with defenses less worried about Booker's shooting / playmakiing and all the focus on him.

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15 minutes ago, HulkSmash said:

 

I literally was just offered KAT and Evan Turner for my Ayton and Gallinari.   Pretty ridiculous at first glance...

 

Their stats match up closely other than blocks, but Ayton seems like he has room to grow in that cat.  He'll out assist KAT, too but obviously KAT has proven he is a lock for Top 5, probably #2 or #3. With the Jimmy Butler issue messing with KAT, it's making me hesitant.  How sure are we that Butler is outta there at, or before the All-Star break?  

 

Earlier in this thread I said I was holding Ayton for at least a month to get a good feel for  his value, but I don't see why any Ayton owners should be hesitating to accept big offers like this.  I owned KAT his rookie season, and Porzingas.  Kept KAT, traded Porzingis with a "sell high" offer, and regretted it.  Most top pick rookies can string together some really fantastic lines, but to keep it up over a full season is a different story.  

 

How do other Ayton owners feel about this being a "sell high" moment?  Now that Booker is out for at least a couple weeks, we don't know how this will affect Ayton's production.  Could be that he takes over the offense, with huge numbers and a dip in efficiency, or he could seriously struggle with defenses less worried about Booker's shooting / playmakiing and all the focus on him.

I'd trade away Ayton for KAT in a heartbeat. May offer something like that to the KAT owner in my league now to see if he's as panicked. 

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14 minutes ago, HulkSmash said:

 

I literally was just offered KAT and Evan Turner for my Ayton and Gallinari.   Pretty ridiculous at first glance...

 

Their stats match up closely other than blocks, but Ayton seems like he has room to grow in that cat.  He'll out assist KAT, too but obviously KAT has proven he is a lock for Top 5, probably #2 or #3. With the Jimmy Butler issue messing with KAT, it's making me hesitant.  How sure are we that Butler is outta there at, or before the All-Star break?  

 

Earlier in this thread I said I was holding Ayton for at least a month to get a good feel for  his value, but I don't see why any Ayton owners should be hesitating to accept big offers like this.  I owned KAT his rookie season, and Porzingas.  Kept KAT, traded Porzingis with a "sell high" offer, and regretted it.  Most top pick rookies can string together some really fantastic lines, but to keep it up over a full season is a different story.  

 

How do other Ayton owners feel about this being a "sell high" moment?  Now that Booker is out for at least a couple weeks, we don't know how this will affect Ayton's production.  Could be that he takes over the offense, with huge numbers and a dip in efficiency, or he could seriously struggle with defenses less worried about Booker's shooting / playmakiing and all the focus on him.

I don't think it's a sell high moment at all and he will play like this (or better) all season. that said the guy who offered you that trade is bad at fantasy and I would accept that right away

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9 minutes ago, HulkSmash said:

 

I literally was just offered KAT and Evan Turner for my Ayton and Gallinari.   Pretty ridiculous at first glance...

 

Their stats match up closely other than blocks, but Ayton seems like he has room to grow in that cat.  He'll out assist KAT, too but obviously KAT has proven he is a lock for Top 5, probably #2 or #3. With the Jimmy Butler issue messing with KAT, it's making me hesitant.  How sure are we that Butler is outta there at, or before the All-Star break?  

 

Earlier in this thread I said I was holding Ayton for at least a month to get a good feel for  his value, but I don't see why any Ayton owners should be hesitating to accept big offers like this.  I owned KAT his rookie season, and Porzingas.  Kept KAT, traded Porzingis with a "sell high" offer, and regretted it.  Most top pick rookies can string together some really fantastic lines, but to keep it up over a full season is a different story.  

 

How do other Ayton owners feel about this being a "sell high" moment?  Now that Booker is out for at least a couple weeks, we don't know how this will affect Ayton's production.  Could be that he takes over the offense, with huge numbers and a dip in efficiency, or he could seriously struggle with defenses less worried about Booker's shooting / playmakiing and all the focus on him.

 

I'm an owner and I'm bullish on Ayton's season outlook and dynasty outlook... but if you can get KAT, don't hesitate. I think you're spot on - the toughest part for Ayton is going to be playing at a high level consistently for the entire season. Almost everyone struggles with this because they've never had to do it over the 82 game grind that is the NBA season before. I also had KAT his rookie year and he was great, but look at the final line: 18/10/2, 1.7/0.7/0.4 Blk/stl/3s. And that was one of the great rookie seasons of the last 10 years. Ayton would do well to match that line, maybe more blocks and 3s, maybe less efficient from the line/TOs. He could even exceed it. But compare that to what KAT's been putting up the last two seasons. He has a long way to go to get there. There will be some bumps in the road in year 1. If you can get a top 5 or 10 player, I say pull the trigger. 

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4 minutes ago, '71 Bucks said:

 

I'm an owner and I'm bullish on Ayton's season outlook and dynasty outlook... but if you can get KAT, don't hesitate. I think you're spot on - the toughest part for Ayton is going to be playing at a high level consistently for the entire season. Almost everyone struggles with this because they've never had to do it over the 82 game grind that is the NBA season before. I also had KAT his rookie year and he was great, but look at the final line: 18/10/2, 1.7/0.7/0.4 Blk/stl/3s. And that was one of the great rookie seasons of the last 10 years. Ayton would do well to match that line, maybe more blocks and 3s, maybe less efficient from the line/TOs. He could even exceed it. But compare that to what KAT's been putting up the last two seasons. He has a long way to go to get there. There will be some bumps in the road in year 1. If you can get a top 5 or 10 player, I say pull the trigger. 

 

Why do people keep thinking ayton will make a bunch of 3's this year, he has not even attempted one through 4 games?

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30 minutes ago, BrowKnees said:

 

Why do people keep thinking ayton will make a bunch of 3's this year, he has not even attempted one through 4 games?

 

Basketball Monster had forecast him at about half a 3 per game. I suspect it's because he has legit range on a quality jumper, and because he averaged one take per game in college. But, he hasn't stepped out to the NBA line. I'm "hoping for" vs "expecting."

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On 10/23/2018 at 3:09 PM, Boogie Buckets said:

Just dropped Curry cause he doesn’t get blocks either

 

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15 hours ago, '71 Bucks said:

 

I'm an owner and I'm bullish on Ayton's season outlook and dynasty outlook... but if you can get KAT, don't hesitate. I think you're spot on - the toughest part for Ayton is going to be playing at a high level consistently for the entire season. Almost everyone struggles with this because they've never had to do it over the 82 game grind that is the NBA season before. I also had KAT his rookie year and he was great, but look at the final line: 18/10/2, 1.7/0.7/0.4 Blk/stl/3s. And that was one of the great rookie seasons of the last 10 years. Ayton would do well to match that line, maybe more blocks and 3s, maybe less efficient from the line/TOs. He could even exceed it. But compare that to what KAT's been putting up the last two seasons. He has a long way to go to get there. There will be some bumps in the road in year 1. If you can get a top 5 or 10 player, I say pull the trigger. 

 

For sure my same thoughts.  

 

I think the reason anyone would hesitate with an offer like this is because we all want that shiny new toy.  What's more fun than picking a rookie ( or 2) that end up becoming superstars in front of our eyes?  The unknown is what gets people to make offers like this.  Regardless, I accepted the offer and I would think other Ayton owners would do well to go fishing for top 15 talent that have a buy low window around them.  Ayton will be a monster, but turning a 4th round draft guy into a 1st rounder is how we win championships.  

 

A few players you may be able to pry lose from their panicking owners are KAT, Kyrie, Paul George, Chris Paul or Kawhi ( not really buy low, but worth a try).  Another option is to try for two players in return like a 2nd / 3rd rounder and a 3rd / 4th rounder with big upside .  Depending on your team needs, guys like Tatum / Mitchell / Oladipo / Jamal Murray / Aaron Gordon / Eric Bledsoe are great targets.  I received KAT via trade, but I would have been happy to get a package of Bledsoe and Tatum. or Aaron Gordon.  

 

Anyone else want to share offers they've received or sent for Ayton? 

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1 hour ago, HulkSmash said:

 

For sure my same thoughts.  

 

I think the reason anyone would hesitate with an offer like this is because we all want that shiny new toy.  What's more fun than picking a rookie ( or 2) that end up becoming superstars in front of our eyes?  The unknown is what gets people to make offers like this.  Regardless, I accepted the offer and I would think other Ayton owners would do well to go fishing for top 15 talent that have a buy low window around them.  Ayton will be a monster, but turning a 4th round draft guy into a 1st rounder is how we win championships.  

 

A few players you may be able to pry lose from their panicking owners are KAT, Kyrie, Paul George, Chris Paul or Kawhi ( not really buy low, but worth a try).  Another option is to try for two players in return like a 2nd / 3rd rounder and a 3rd / 4th rounder with big upside .  Depending on your team needs, guys like Tatum / Mitchell / Oladipo / Jamal Murray / Aaron Gordon / Eric Bledsoe are great targets.  I received KAT via trade, but I would have been happy to get a package of Bledsoe and Tatum. or Aaron Gordon.  

 

Anyone else want to share offers they've received or sent for Ayton? 

If I traded him for a player at another position then I'd be screwed at Center. 

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28 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

If I traded him for a player at another position then I'd be screwed at Center. 

 

You could look for a 2 for 1 deal.  1 PF/C and 1 Guard / Forward.  Make sure 1 of the 2 is a lock for top 40, and the other has very strong potential for top 40 and beyond.

 

Jaren Jackson Jr plus  Tatum would be a great return for Ayton IMO.  I think Jackson ends up top 60, and could actually break top 40 as he matures. Tatum looks like he is to co-star with Kyrie and should beat his already high ADP.

 

Aldridge and DeAron Fox.  Aldridge will break top 40, and Fox is going to beast this year.  Fox is very similar to John Wall and he's gonna let us know it.

 

Whiteside and Jamal Murray.  Whiteside has a low ADP but had a meeting with ownership and will be more of a focal point of the offense, plus he's closing out games like he did when he was a top 25 guy.  Jamal Murray is slumping but that kid can play.

 

Mike Conley and Bagley.  People forgot about how nasty Conley is.  A slightly poor man's CP3, and he's on a mission this season.  Bagley looks like an animal and his minutes will increase until he's unleashed after ASB.

 

Aaron Gordon and Marc Gasol.  Gordon started last year as a top 30 guy, and struggled in the 2nd half.  He's still younger than some of the rookies from this class, so I see him taking a leap forward, being the leader of a super talented young core of him, Isaac, and Bomba.  He'll also benefit from an upgrade at Point Guard if/when they move Vucevic who is increasing his trade value with a monster start to the season.  Marc Gasol is one of the most underrated fantasy players in the game, along with his teammate Conley discussed above.

 

Usually I want to be the guy receiving 1 player for 2 players but Ayton owners are in an interesting position where you might be able to get 2 players that aren't as hyped up or flashy that have top 40 ( or potential ) value for Ayton alone, or Ayton plus a player that's a sell high like Gallinari or Willie Cauley Stein or Jeremy Lamb.

 

 

 

There will be people that disagree, I'm sure, but it's a solid strategy that can outweigh the risk of holding Ayton while the league could potentially figure him out, or he tires out from not being used to the rigorous toll on the body from an NBA season.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, HulkSmash said:

 

You could look for a 2 for 1 deal.  1 PF/C and 1 Guard / Forward.  Make sure 1 of the 2 is a lock for top 40, and the other has very strong potential for top 40 and beyond.

 

Jaren Jackson Jr plus  Tatum would be a great return for Ayton IMO.  I think Jackson ends up top 60, and could actually break top 40 as he matures. Tatum looks like he is to co-star with Kyrie and should beat his already high ADP.

 

Aldridge and DeAron Fox.  Aldridge will break top 40, and Fox is going to beast this year.  Fox is very similar to John Wall and he's gonna let us know it.

 

Whiteside and Jamal Murray.  Whiteside has a low ADP but had a meeting with ownership and will be more of a focal point of the offense, plus he's closing out games like he did when he was a top 25 guy.  Jamal Murray is slumping but that kid can play.

 

Mike Conley and Bagley.  People forgot about how nasty Conley is.  A slightly poor man's CP3, and he's on a mission this season.  Bagley looks like an animal and his minutes will increase until he's unleashed after ASB.

 

Aaron Gordon and Marc Gasol.  Gordon started last year as a top 30 guy, and struggled in the 2nd half.  He's still younger than some of the rookies from this class, so I see him taking a leap forward, being the leader of a super talented young core of him, Isaac, and Bomba.  He'll also benefit from an upgrade at Point Guard if/when they move Vucevic who is increasing his trade value with a monster start to the season.  Marc Gasol is one of the most underrated fantasy players in the game, along with his teammate Conley discussed above.

 

Usually I want to be the guy receiving 1 player for 2 players but Ayton owners are in an interesting position where you might be able to get 2 players that aren't as hyped up or flashy that have top 40 ( or potential ) value for Ayton alone, or Ayton plus a player that's a sell high like Gallinari or Willie Cauley Stein or Jeremy Lamb.

 

 

 

There will be people that disagree, I'm sure, but it's a solid strategy that can outweigh the risk of holding Ayton while the league could potentially figure him out, or he tires out from not being used to the rigorous toll on the body from an NBA season.

 

 

You keep talking about trading for 2 players with top 40 potential but its clear after only 4 games that ayton has top 25 potential, and that is without hitting any 3s. I'm not selling him for anything less than a 2nd rounder, which would probably have to occur as a 2 for 1 where the ayton owner gives the 2 players

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3 minutes ago, RonnieRonaldo said:

 

He's questionable with ankle soreness

Lame. Had ankle soreness and beasted now questionable again. Just sit out a game or two so we don't hear about this again 

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Just now, richg24 said:

Lame. Had ankle soreness and beasted now questionable again. Just sit out a game or two so we don't hear about this again 

Hopefully they are just doing their due diligence and listing it until it goes away.   

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Half anticipating he sits out tonight on the front end of a back to back. Hope he does.

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On 10/26/2018 at 8:20 AM, richg24 said:

You keep talking about trading for 2 players with top 40 potential but its clear after only 4 games that ayton has top 25 potential, and that is without hitting any 3s. I'm not selling him for anything less than a 2nd rounder, which would probably have to occur as a 2 for 1 where the ayton owner gives the 2 players

 

 

I see your point.  Let me clarify.

 

The top 40 potential guys I'd be targeting are ones who we feel could reach 25th if everything goes right.  It balances out the risk associated with 1 first year beast.  I'm not saying, at all, that I wanted to move Ayton.  He's going to be an amazing player.  It's obvious to anyone who's watched him play.  The problem is these rookies tend to show struggle when defenses learn to game plan for them.  Along with the fact that the majority of rookies start to feel the toll on their body a rigorous 82 game season has on it.  For the first time in their life they are playing back-to-backs regularly, and playing triple the amount of high intensity games.  I could be wrong, and Ayton finishes top 10, but I'd bet he's closer to #40 overall than he is #10 overall.

 

If you can get back a guy like Conley, who we would consider a top 40 guy, ( should be ranked higher but last year's injury affected his ADP) but should almost certainly rank #15--#25 overall with a healthy season.  Throw in another top 40 guy with the talent to get him into the top 25 if all goes well,  like Aaron Gordon or John Collins,  Jaren Jackson JR and you just capitalized on the NBA's shiny new toy by limiting your risk, and balancing out your line up.

 

When I say 2 for 1,  I mean 2 top talents for 1.   It's technically a 2 for 2, where Ayton owners can add another player who is overachieving or high injury risk to secure the best 2 man return possible.  That's why I included Gallinari in my deal.  I sent Ayton and Gallo for KAT and freaking Evan Turner ( who I'll immediately drop for Shai Gilgeous Alexander ).  The other owner feels like he won the trade, and I just acquired my 4th fantasy animal in a 14 team league.  Feels like a win/win but by end of season, I have a strong feeling this trade helped me place 1st or 2nd in my league.  Just want to help other Ayton owners think about making a similar move that increases their chances at a championship.

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