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Aaron Jones 2018 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, konstao said:

 

i've played in a competitive 12 team league last year and its completely possible what he said ..

i had aaron jones and jamal williams on my bench ... both were picked on waivers as the season progressed... my rbs were melvin gordon and mccoy and my flex mark ingram

 

Yes in that example I agree. He said you don't know when to start him. I explained above when to start him. He might be right this year about it being a mess but it wasn't last year.

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10 hours ago, CrastersCreep said:

You don't anticipate he'll mix in once he returns from suspension?

I'm sure he'll get a few carries at least but honestly who knows. If Williams shows well in those two games then I could see Jones only getting a handful of carries once he returns. 

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As a packers fan, I believe jones will be getting 10-15 touches a game by mid-season, assuming health.

 

Williams is a banger and great blocker, but when you watch the RB’s on this team run the ball, Jones has a burst the others don’t. Ultimately, in an up tempo offense that is trying to push the ball down the field through the air, a quick hitter that excels in zone blocking schemes at RB makes more sense than a power back.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, cpdaly said:

As a packers fan, I believe jones will be getting 10-15 touches a game by mid-season, assuming health.

 

Williams is a banger and great blocker, but when you watch the RB’s on this team run the ball, Jones has a burst the others don’t. Ultimately, in an up tempo offense that is trying to push the ball down the field through the air, a quick hitter that excels in zone blocking schemes at RB makes more sense than a power back.

 

 

 

Not if that back gets the best QB in NFL history hurt in pass protection. 

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Aaron Jones is fragile. The Packers know this and will not  put a heavy load on him. He will be strictly a change of pace back upon his return. He will also not be in on passing downs as his blocking is sub par and you know Rodgers will not put up with that. I'd guess 5-8 touches per week for Jones if healthy. Which makes him boom or bust most weeks.

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37 minutes ago, KB_IV said:

Aaron Jones is fragile. The Packers know this and will not  put a heavy load on him. He will be strictly a change of pace back upon his return. He will also not be in on passing downs as his blocking is sub par and you know Rodgers will not put up with that. I'd guess 5-8 touches per week for Jones if healthy. Which makes him boom or bust most weeks.

He's had 1 NFL season where he essentially had 1 injury that he rushed back from and then aggravated. The only other injury I can find that he suffered was a torn ligament in his ankle (haven't been able to find which one) his junior year of college which required surgery. That's two injuries in five years of football so I think it is extremely premature to label him as "fragile."

 

He's had an entire off season to improve his pass protection which is often one of the most difficult aspects of the NFL for rookie RBs to grasp. I know Rodgers said that he loved Jones as a RB last season so there is already something Rogers likes about the guy. I'm willing to bet Jones worked on his pass protection extensively during the off season. Will he be better than or as good as Williams or Montgomery in pass protection? Who knows but the blanket statement that as a rookie RB he was sub par in pass protection means in his second season he will be sub par again isn't accurate without any facts to support the claim. So saying he will "not be in on passing downs" isn't a fair statement at all. 

 

You have no idea what Jones usage will be when he returns and saying that "he will strictly be a change of pace back upon his return," again, isn't accurate. 

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1 hour ago, KB_IV said:

Aaron Jones is fragile. The Packers know this and will not  put a heavy load on him. He will be strictly a change of pace back upon his return. He will also not be in on passing downs as his blocking is sub par and you know Rodgers will not put up with that. I'd guess 5-8 touches per week for Jones if healthy. Which makes him boom or bust most weeks.

 

More injury-prone than your typical RB - wrong

 

Thinking you know what the Packers know - wrong

 

Strictly change of pace - wrong

 

A finished product in pass protection based on his rookie year - wrong

 

5-8 touches per game - wrong

 

You’re batting .000

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1 hour ago, jccouger said:

 

Not if that back gets the best QB in NFL history hurt in pass protection. 

 

This is definitely true, but an explosive back also protects the quarterback.  If you gotta worry about the run u can't pin your ears back and blitz the quarterback as much.

 

The most telling thing for me is that Jones got the carries after ty went down, and Williams was third up.  Says to me that the staff would rather have a healthy Jones in the backfield than Williams.  Jones is a great flier.

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1 hour ago, KB_IV said:

Aaron Jones is fragile. The Packers know this and will not  put a heavy load on him. He will be strictly a change of pace back upon his return. He will also not be in on passing downs as his blocking is sub par and you know Rodgers will not put up with that. I'd guess 5-8 touches per week for Jones if healthy. Which makes him boom or bust most weeks.

Totally disagree. He's the most talented, & definitely most explosive of the GB backs. Don't be surprised he he's the lead dog by October, after a couple weeks to settle in after the suspension

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25 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

 

More injury-prone than your typical RB - wrong

 

Thinking you know what the Packers know - wrong

 

Strictly change of pace - wrong

 

A finished product in pass protection based on his rookie year - wrong

 

5-8 touches per game - wrong

 

You’re batting .000

Isn't that exactly what you just did?

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1 hour ago, munde53 said:

He's had 1 NFL season where he essentially had 1 injury that he rushed back from and then aggravated. The only other injury I can find that he suffered was a torn ligament in his ankle (haven't been able to find which one) his junior year of college which required surgery. That's two injuries in five years of football so I think it is extremely premature to label him as "fragile."

 

He's had an entire off season to improve his pass protection which is often one of the most difficult aspects of the NFL for rookie RBs to grasp. I know Rodgers said that he loved Jones as a RB last season so there is already something Rogers likes about the guy. I'm willing to bet Jones worked on his pass protection extensively during the off season. Will he be better than or as good as Williams or Montgomery in pass protection? Who knows but the blanket statement that as a rookie RB he was sub par in pass protection means in his second season he will be sub par again isn't accurate without any facts to support the claim. So saying he will "not be in on passing downs" isn't a fair statement at all. 

 

You have no idea what Jones usage will be when he returns and saying that "he will strictly be a change of pace back upon his return," again, isn't accurate. 

 

Writing is on the wall for Jones. The coach has already come out and praised Williams. Unless Williams completely falls on his face or gets hurt the 2 games to start the season there is absolutely no way Jones takes over lead duties. IMO from what we saw from Williams last year it is highly unlikely Williams will fail. So as long as Williams stays healthy and produces I stick by what I said that Jones will be strictly "change of pace" material.

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1 hour ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

 

More injury-prone than your typical RB - wrong

 

Thinking you know what the Packers know - wrong

 

Strictly change of pace - wrong

 

A finished product in pass protection based on his rookie year - wrong

 

5-8 touches per game - wrong

 

You’re batting .000

I hate trollers like you on this board. If you ain’t nothing nice to say no need to say it. What’s your analysis of the situation? You watch real football games or just red zone ? With all these wrongs your assuming Jones is going to take the job and run away with it, which by all means is possible. But your arrogance and know it all attitudes like these trollers, I’d rather get useful information from someone else. I ain’t saying your right or wrong but knowing that your name is Tommy Lee Jones I’d rather get my information from Will Smith lmao

Edited by Watitdookie
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No way the Packers don't try out both Jones and Williams in lead back roles this season IMO. Why not see what both guys can do with Rodgers healthy and everything back to somewhat normal OL wise as well. Determine who they like best and stick with them. 

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16 minutes ago, TPowell said:

No way the Packers don't try out both Jones and Williams in lead back roles this season IMO. Why not see what both guys can do with Rodgers healthy and everything back to somewhat normal OL wise as well. Determine who they like best and stick with them. 

So they plan on using the regular season to experiment? I don't think many, if any, teams do that.

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the saving grace for Jones at this point is that the schedule isn't friendly weeks 1 and 2, which means the potential for sub optimal performance from Williams.

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Grab both (RB3) and let it take care of itself 

 

I don’t think it’s debatable that AJ offers more theoretical “upside”, but getting Rodgers upright and moving the chains is the primary concern - I’ll grab both, start Williams, then see what happens 

 

really leaning towards going WR-WR again thanks to this situation and backs like Barber / Carson

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1 hour ago, KB_IV said:

 

Writing is on the wall for Jones. The coach has already come out and praised Williams. Unless Williams completely falls on his face or gets hurt the 2 games to start the season there is absolutely no way Jones takes over lead duties. IMO from what we saw from Williams last year it is highly unlikely Williams will fail. So as long as Williams stays healthy and produces I stick by what I said that Jones will be strictly "change of pace" material.

Coach speak, especially in the off season, means literally nothing. I can dig up countless coach speak lines from across the league over the years that have proven to have meant nothing. The only time I put any stock into coach speak is when it is negative toward a player/situation because it is very uncommon for a coach to speak negatively about one of his players. What is McCarthy supposed to say? "Our starting running back for at least the first two games is poised to have a bad year?" Blurbs like this literally mean nothing especially without context and what the actual question what that was asked to McCarthy. If a reporter went up to McCarthy and asked "is Jamaal Williams going to take a 2nd year jump and have a big year" of course McCarthy is going to say yes. So the writing is far from on the wall for anyone in this backfield.

 

I'm not even going to touch the "there is absolutely no way Jones takes over lead duties" line because you're entitled to your opinion. However, there are several scenarios where Jones becomes the lead back or at least pushes a full blown RBBC.

 

I'm not sure exactly what you saw in Williams last year that says he is highly unlikely to fail but I didn't see the same thing. Williams is a replacement level NFL talent and will probably settle in as a #2 RB for the majority of his NFL career. I think a Robert Turbin comparison for Williams is very accurate. He can do everything but he can't do anything particularly well. He'll get what is blocked but he won't get you much, if anything, more.

 

Here are the two players efficiency ratings from last season.

WILLIAMS:

PRODUCTION PREMIUM YARDS PER CARRY YARDS PER TOUCH BREAKAWAY RUNS  BREAKAWAY RUN RATE EVADED TACKLES JUKE RATE 
-3.4 3.6 4.6 1  (0.1 p/g) 0.7% 25  (1.7 p/g) 14.0%
#41 #57 #32 #75 #59 #51 #58
DOMINATOR RATING  GAME SCRIPT  YARDS CREATED  YARDS CREATED PER CARRY  CATCH RATE  DROP RATE FANTASY POINTS PER OPPORTUNITY 
16.3% -4.62 119  (7.9 p/g) 0.67 73.5% 11.8% 0.76
#40 #30 #54 #56 - - #68

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jamaal-williams/

 

JONES:

PRODUCTION PREMIUM YARDS PER CARRY YARDS PER TOUCH BREAKAWAY RUNS  BREAKAWAY RUN RATE EVADED TACKLES JUKE RATE 
+6.9 5.6 5.2 6  (0.6 p/g) 7.5% 17  (1.7 p/g) 19.1%
#26 #2 #15 #29 #2 #64 #45
DOMINATOR RATING  GAME SCRIPT  YARDS CREATED  YARDS CREATED PER CARRY  CATCH RATE  DROP RATE FANTASY POINTS PER OPPORTUNITY 
15.4% -4.62 126  (12.6 p/g) 1.42 50.0% 5.6% 0.81
#44 #30 #51 #19 - - #56

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/aaron-jones/

 

Jones beats Williams on just about every single statistic in terms of efficiency. One of the biggest ones is the "Yards Created Per Carry" which is in other words how much can you get beyond what is blocked. Jones ranked #19 among qualified runners (honestly I'm not sure how many carries it took to be a qualified runner) while Williams ranked #56.

 

On top of that Jones's "Production Premium" illustrates just how much better Jones was when compared to Williams. For PlayerProfiler (the website where this data was retrieved) "Production Premium;" measures a players productivity across league-average situations and discounts non standard situation such as 2-minute drill, garbage time. positive values indicate that a player is more efficient than the average full-time player, while negative values indicate that a player is less efficient than his peers with similar opportunities.  

 

For Production Premium Williams had a score -3.4 (#41) while Jones had a score of +6.9 (#26). So not only does Jones pass the eye test of being a better runner he also shows to be a better runner statistically. Jones production along with his tape shows that he is far from just a COP back.

 

I can easily envision a Packers team where Jones is the early down back, Williams is the 3rd down/COP back, and Montgomery slides into the slot as a receiver.

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6 hours ago, jccouger said:

 

Not if that back gets the best QB in NFL history hurt in pass protection. 

Talent wins out.  Aaron jones is a much more talented player than jamal Williams and has already shown improved pass protection this preseason.  He’ll be the guy by mid season.

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1 hour ago, cpdaly said:

Talent wins out.  Aaron jones is a much more talented player than jamal Williams and has already shown improved pass protection this preseason.  He’ll be the guy by mid season.

Except when it doesn't and Booker is the starting RB in Denver. Liabilities in pass protection will get a RB benched.

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3 hours ago, munde53 said:

Coach speak, especially in the off season, means literally nothing. I can dig up countless coach speak lines from across the league over the years that have proven to have meant nothing. The only time I put any stock into coach speak is when it is negative toward a player/situation because it is very uncommon for a coach to speak negatively about one of his players. What is McCarthy supposed to say? "Our starting running back for at least the first two games is poised to have a bad year?" Blurbs like this literally mean nothing especially without context and what the actual question what that was asked to McCarthy. If a reporter went up to McCarthy and asked "is Jamaal Williams going to take a 2nd year jump and have a big year" of course McCarthy is going to say yes. So the writing is far from on the wall for anyone in this backfield.

 

I'm not even going to touch the "there is absolutely no way Jones takes over lead duties" line because you're entitled to your opinion. However, there are several scenarios where Jones becomes the lead back or at least pushes a full blown RBBC.

 

I'm not sure exactly what you saw in Williams last year that says he is highly unlikely to fail but I didn't see the same thing. Williams is a replacement level NFL talent and will probably settle in as a #2 RB for the majority of his NFL career. I think a Robert Turbin comparison for Williams is very accurate. He can do everything but he can't do anything particularly well. He'll get what is blocked but he won't get you much, if anything, more.

 

Here are the two players efficiency ratings from last season.

WILLIAMS:

PRODUCTION PREMIUM YARDS PER CARRY YARDS PER TOUCH BREAKAWAY RUNS  BREAKAWAY RUN RATE EVADED TACKLES JUKE RATE 
-3.4 3.6 4.6 1  (0.1 p/g) 0.7% 25  (1.7 p/g) 14.0%
#41 #57 #32 #75 #59 #51 #58
DOMINATOR RATING  GAME SCRIPT  YARDS CREATED  YARDS CREATED PER CARRY  CATCH RATE  DROP RATE FANTASY POINTS PER OPPORTUNITY 
16.3% -4.62 119  (7.9 p/g) 0.67 73.5% 11.8% 0.76
#40 #30 #54 #56 - - #68

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jamaal-williams/

 

JONES:

PRODUCTION PREMIUM YARDS PER CARRY YARDS PER TOUCH BREAKAWAY RUNS  BREAKAWAY RUN RATE EVADED TACKLES JUKE RATE 
+6.9 5.6 5.2 6  (0.6 p/g) 7.5% 17  (1.7 p/g) 19.1%
#26 #2 #15 #29 #2 #64 #45
DOMINATOR RATING  GAME SCRIPT  YARDS CREATED  YARDS CREATED PER CARRY  CATCH RATE  DROP RATE FANTASY POINTS PER OPPORTUNITY 
15.4% -4.62 126  (12.6 p/g) 1.42 50.0% 5.6% 0.81
#44 #30 #51 #19 - - #56

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/aaron-jones/

 

Jones beats Williams on just about every single statistic in terms of efficiency. One of the biggest ones is the "Yards Created Per Carry" which is in other words how much can you get beyond what is blocked. Jones ranked #19 among qualified runners (honestly I'm not sure how many carries it took to be a qualified runner) while Williams ranked #56.

 

On top of that Jones's "Production Premium" illustrates just how much better Jones was when compared to Williams. For PlayerProfiler (the website where this data was retrieved) "Production Premium;" measures a players productivity across league-average situations and discounts non standard situation such as 2-minute drill, garbage time. positive values indicate that a player is more efficient than the average full-time player, while negative values indicate that a player is less efficient than his peers with similar opportunities.  

 

For Production Premium Williams had a score -3.4 (#41) while Jones had a score of +6.9 (#26). So not only does Jones pass the eye test of being a better runner he also shows to be a better runner statistically. Jones production along with his tape shows that he is far from just a COP back.

 

I can easily envision a Packers team where Jones is the early down back, Williams is the 3rd down/COP back, and Montgomery slides into the slot as a receiver.

 

I won't debate you about Jones being the better runner. He is, obviously. But Williams is a better all around player. Not just a runner.  When you have a guy like Williams who can do it all and do it well it makes coaching a whole lot easier. When a coach doesn't have to worry about interchanging a back for certain plays or situations his job becomes easier. If you read what the coaches are saying about Williams it's obvious he has that trust with the coaches....

 

"Again, I think he's displayed a good, varied skill set for that position, where you don't have to necessarily pigeon-hole him and say he's a power runner, he's an off-tackle runner, he's an inside runner. I think he's displayed the ability to give us some flexibility in a lot of areas."

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/45457/packers-run-game-from-committee-to-jamaal-williams-show

 

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

Except when it doesn't and Booker is the starting RB in Denver. Liabilities in pass protection will get a RB benched.

So you are drafting booker over freeman?

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Jones killing it tonight. There's a lot of box score scouts in the Montgomery and Williams threads, but he is the best RB in Green Bay. He will have a sizeable role when he returns and if he ever becomes adequate in pass pro, the RBBC is over. 

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2 minutes ago, cpdaly said:

So you are drafting booker over freeman?

Nope, but I'm staying far away from Freeman at his ADP.

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