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Saucy

Karl-Anthony Towns 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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Another absurdly efficient season for KAT, although his points took a bit of a tumble with Jimmy Butler joining the team. Still finished 5th on the player rater while playing 82 games for the third straight season. What are your expectations for him this season? Where should he be drafted?

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4 minutes ago, Saucy said:

Another absurdly efficient season for KAT, although his points took a bit of a tumble with Jimmy Butler joining the team. Still finished 5th on the player rater while playing 82 games for the third straight season. What are your expectations for him this season? Where should he be drafted?

Depends on what the team looks like next year, with some grumblings about Wiggins. But I don't think they're loud enough for him to be moved, so I'd expect more of the same from Towns, maybe a bit of a dip, considering he's being unfairly ridiculed in the media. But he should have basically the same numbers as last season. I'd probably take him around 6th, and I expect his ADP will be lower.

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I saw there were rumors that KAT is/was unhappy with management (and possibly Thibs). It was pretty frustrating when he was not getting double digit shot attempts during a stretch there this season. It doesn't sound like the Wolves would ever trade him, unless it gets to Kawhi-level disgruntlement. Do the Wolves say or do anything other than "suck it up" to KAT this offseason? It's hard watching Wiggins take all those contested long twos after 15 dribbles...

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24 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Depends on what the team looks like next year, with some grumblings about Wiggins. But I don't think they're loud enough for him to be moved, so I'd expect more of the same from Towns, maybe a bit of a dip, considering he's being unfairly ridiculed in the media. But he should have basically the same numbers as last season. I'd probably take him around 6th, and I expect his ADP will be lower.

 

Forget the grumblings, Wiggins should be moved anyways. He's just not a very good player, and he soaks up shots. KAT is the most talented guy on the roster, no way should Wiggins be shooting more than him.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Saucy said:

Forget the grumblings, Wiggins should be moved anyways. He's just not a very good player, and he soaks up shots. KAT is the most talented guy on the roster, no way should Wiggins be shooting more than him.

I would definitely say that Butler is their best player, but at least Towns made some huge strides defensively last season. But yeah Wiggins does more harm than good, they should move Wiggins for any expiring(s) they can get, they're just wasting time so long as he's on the roster.

 

19 minutes ago, AndreSplash said:

I saw there were rumors that KAT is/was unhappy with management (and possibly Thibs). It was pretty frustrating when he was not getting double digit shot attempts during a stretch there this season. It doesn't sound like the Wolves would ever trade him, unless it gets to Kawhi-level disgruntlement. Do the Wolves say or do anything other than "suck it up" to KAT this offseason? It's hard watching Wiggins take all those contested long twos after 15 dribbles...

They've given Thibs some license to do his thing, but if they don't make any noise in the playoffs next year and Towns is pissed, Thibs is getting fired. Their budding star won't be asked to suck it up for long, if at all.

Edited by miasma16
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Fans overrate him quite a bit. He got his pants pulled down in the playoffs. It's still plenty room for improvement for the youngster.

 

I ranked him 3rd as far as big men are concerned. Behind Davis and Jokic. Like @miasma16 already said, his ADP should be between 6 to 8. 

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44 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

Fans overrate him quite a bit. He got his pants pulled down in the playoffs. It's still plenty room for improvement for the youngster.

 

I ranked him 3rd as far as big men are concerned. Behind Davis and Jokic. Like @miasma16 already said, his ADP should be between 6 to 8. 

I agree that Towns has a ways to go in real life to be the leader of a winning team but in terms of fantasy, it’s so nice having his percentages from a center and never missing a game in 3 season to begin his career. I think for him to get drafted in the top 3, he has to get over a steal/game and block close to 2 shots/game. 

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2 hours ago, AndreSplash said:

I agree that Towns has a ways to go in real life to be the leader of a winning team but in terms of fantasy, it’s so nice having his percentages from a center and never missing a game in 3 season to begin his career. I think for him to get drafted in the top 3, he has to get over a steal/game and block close to 2 shots/game. 

 

Are KAT's 0.8 steals and 1.4 blocks considered sub par? Or just not "elite"?

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2 hours ago, Saucy said:

 

Are KAT's 0.8 steals and 1.4 blocks considered sub par? Or just not "elite"?

Not elite. His steals and blocks are definitely above average and it was nice to see improvement in that area for KAT. That was in reference for him to be drafted top 3. 

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On 6/28/2018 at 10:18 AM, Trench Mob said:

Fans overrate him quite a bit. He got his pants pulled down in the playoffs. It's still plenty room for improvement for the youngster.

 

I ranked him 3rd as far as big men are concerned. Behind Davis and Jokic. Like @miasma16 already said, his ADP should be between 6 to 8. 

As almost all 22 year olds would do in their first taste of the playoffs facing the #1 seed without the full health of their sidekick star. 

 

 

KAT is so talented and still developing. We get all caught up on a player rater ranking to say whether we made a good first round pick and I think that is limiting. A lot of what KAT does can't be seen in a player rater. He allows you to build so many different ways because he is a big that excels or contributes in every single category. KAT provides such a unique stat line and health that I have no issues if you want to take him #1 overall. Obviously, that won't be a super popular choice, but I am not going to call you a moron for doing it because I understand the logic behind it. I think you can win taking KAT #1 almost as easily as if you took him #6. I just think it is how you want to build. 

 

Obviously, the offseason makes a massive difference so it is still too early for rankings. But, if Boogie resigns with the Pelicans I am drafting KAT ahead of AD if I am on the clock and going with a big early in round 1.

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38 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Obviously, the offseason makes a massive difference so it is still too early for rankings. But, if Boogie resigns with the Pelicans I am drafting KAT ahead of AD if I am on the clock and going with a big early in round 1.

And apparently that means if I have the #1 pick overall I am trading down....

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I remember him being a popular #1 pick last season at least among Rotoworld.  I said he will finish in the top 5 but won’t finish first in per game value due to his stocks being sub-elite.  He also doesn’t contribute league average in assists, although he provides a decent amount for a center.  He’s elite in points/rebounds/efficiency and chips in a little here and there but isn’t as versatile as say KD and doesn’t have the massive contribution to stocks that AD provides. He is super durable so I can see that being a huge boon in H2H.  And I would pick him early if I was doing a force punt to assists .  Otherwise, I just don’t see myself picking KAT first.  The way I see it is that he finished 5th on the BBM player rater for 9 cat and he’s very durable which should push him up a couple slots so 2-3 is reasonable. 

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on top of my head, i have KAT as my 3rd big on my board after AD and GREEK. ahead of JOKIC. as stifle said, KAT has his strengths in health and efficiency while being sub par in STOCKS. im avoiding both curry and KD if i have a top 6 pick, just for the reason of health. a minor tweak would require both to miss several games if not a week. so looking the top of the board, with HARDEN, LILLARD, WESTBROOK as my top 3 PG, if your looking for a big after AD and GREEK, KAT is my pick. i might be missing someone. hehe

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1 hour ago, BetterCallHinkie said:

please trade wiggins

Hey trading away Wiggins is good advice for any team to follow!

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On 7/7/2018 at 7:10 PM, Kenny Mack said:

on top of my head, i have KAT as my 3rd big on my board after AD and GREEK. ahead of JOKIC. as stifle said, KAT has his strengths in health and efficiency while being sub par in STOCKS. im avoiding both curry and KD if i have a top 6 pick, just for the reason of health. a minor tweak would require both to miss several games if not a week. so looking the top of the board, with HARDEN, LILLARD, WESTBROOK as my top 3 PG, if your looking for a big after AD and GREEK, KAT is my pick. i might be missing someone. hehe

I really struggle to see the argument that Greek is better than KAT. The elite, elite, elite upside is when Greek plays point and distributes. Unless the roster or philosophy changes a lot his assists are probably going to be around 5. The edge KAT provide in %'s and 3's, while being good everywhere else, easily edges him over Greek IMO. I am not letting 0.6 stocks blind me from a guy that is a liability in 3's and FT%. 

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Yeah the Greek Freek was pretty far behind on the player rater.  Not only do I have KAT above him, there’s several other players as well. 

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I don’t see any major changes coming to KAT’s profile next season (especially with Butler/Wiggins still in the squad), but that’s not a bad thing by any means. He’s incredibly consistent and durable, which are huge pluses. Headed into next year, I’ll have him around #4 on my draft board, trailing only Davis, Harden, and KD, 

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7 hours ago, Lux Aeterna ll said:

I don’t see any major changes coming to KAT’s profile next season (especially with Butler/Wiggins still in the squad), but that’s not a bad thing by any means. He’s incredibly consistent and durable, which are huge pluses. Headed into next year, I’ll have him around #4 on my draft board, trailing only Davis, Harden, and KD, 

 

IMO he should be ranked ahead of KD... as far as we know Durant might play 15+ fewer games than KAT (due to resting, injuries...)

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2 hours ago, Stefan said:

 

IMO he should be ranked ahead of KD... as far as we know Durant might play 15+ fewer games than KAT (due to resting, injuries...)

They’re really close in my book. If KD only plays ~68 games this year, you’re definitely right. I personally think he’ll play closer to 75, which is why I give him the edge, but I have Steph ranked under him for this very reason. Don’t see him playing 65+ games this year.

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Posted (edited)

It depends on if you’re playing H2H or roto.  If you’re playing H2H you really want someone to play during the fantasy playoffs.  If you’re playing roto I think it’s a simple mathematical calculation.  If you expect a player to miss 10% of games, deduct 10% of his value. KAT may be the only first round player who is a near lock to play every game and he plays the most valuable position. Those are the two biggest reasons to draft him first otherwise he’s barely a top 5 player.  

Edited by StifleTower2
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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

It depends on if you’re playing H2H or roto.  If you’re playing H2H you really want someone to play during the fantasy playoffs.  If you’re playing roto I think it’s a simple mathematical calculation.  If you expect a player to miss 10% of games, deduct 10% of his value. KAT may be the only first round player who is a near lock to play every game and he plays the most valuable position. Those are the two biggest reasons to draft him first otherwise he’s barely a top 5 player.  

 

"you're only an iron man until you're not" - Josh Loyd

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

It depends on if you’re playing H2H or roto.  If you’re playing H2H you really want someone to play during the fantasy playoffs.  If you’re playing roto I think it’s a simple mathematical calculation.  If you expect a player to miss 10% of games, deduct 10% of his value. KAT may be the only first round player who is a near lock to play every game and he plays the most valuable position. Those are the two biggest reasons to draft him first otherwise he’s barely a top 5 player.  

Yeah, this builds on our discussion about punts from the other thread. I've had several amazing Deandre/Dwight type auction punts. Never won a league with them because I'd always have a center miss the whole fantasy playoffs. Health is super important for H2H, and at an early point in roto drafts I often take guys that are injury risks simply because people overly devalue them. 

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

It depends on if you’re playing H2H or roto.  If you’re playing H2H you really want someone to play during the fantasy playoffs.  If you’re playing roto I think it’s a simple mathematical calculation.  If you expect a player to miss 10% of games, deduct 10% of his value. KAT may be the only first round player who is a near lock to play every game and he plays the most valuable position. Those are the two biggest reasons to draft him first otherwise he’s barely a top 5 player.  

Just wanted to add to this a bit because it isn't so simple for roto. Not all games missed are created equal and a lot of that depends on the format. Let's look at KD and say you are projecting 10 games missed next year. Let's say 6 of those are rest on a B2B and the other 6 are minor/nagging injuries. So KD on a 3 game week resting one game still needs to be played in a weekly lineup league. KD essentially has to be locked in to your lineup if he is just missing 1 game for rest or minor injuries. If KD were to miss 3 weeks with an injury then you get the benefit of a replacement player accumulating some stats in his place. End of the day, resting elite players really really really f*cks you in weekly lineup leagues because you just eat those missed games. Roto or H2H, doesn't matter all that much because it still hurts. If you can daily lineup change for missed games, then the calculation is KD * 90% + 10% * (replacement players stat line) and that will give you the value of KD at the start of the season. 

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Just wanted to add to this a bit because it isn't so simple for roto. Not all games missed are created equal and a lot of that depends on the format. Let's look at KD and say you are projecting 10 games missed next year. Let's say 6 of those are rest on a B2B and the other 6 are minor/nagging injuries. So KD on a 3 game week resting one game still needs to be played in a weekly lineup league. KD essentially has to be locked in to your lineup if he is just missing 1 game for rest or minor injuries. If KD were to miss 3 weeks with an injury then you get the benefit of a replacement player accumulating some stats in his place. End of the day, resting elite players really really really f*cks you in weekly lineup leagues because you just eat those missed games. Roto or H2H, doesn't matter all that much because it still hurts. If you can daily lineup change for missed games, then the calculation is KD * 90% + 10% * (replacement players stat line) and that will give you the value of KD at the start of the season. 

I mean I understand that intellectually but I’m not going to go through every player and estimate the total games they will miss then compare that total  against the value of the games by a replacement player.  Because any games missed is merely an estimated guess and not reliable.  Garbage in/garbage out.  Your method is more accurate but I think sometimes dumb, easy, and close is good enough for me. 

Edited by StifleTower2
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